I think they likely will do something like option 2 or 3 that you listed for a crew vehicle.I am wondering if they might be able to launch a Bigelow BA 2100. They show what appear to be 5 m and 7 m fairings on the two stage and 3 stage rockets. They would need to develop at least an 8m as well to launch the BA 2100. Wiki lists the crew capacity of the BA 2100 as 16, and I am guessing the New Glenn's capsule could launch that many people at one go. They may even make a station of a couple BA 2100 hooked together in this case.Note: This is my pure speculation, while I had foreknowledge of the size of this rocket, I do not know anything else about their forward plan at this point, and I am not likely to get such advanced knowledge again in the near future.
Here is my estimate of New Glenn performance. 70 tons to LEO, 20 tons to TMI. #Space #Science #Mars #MarsSociety
Perfect launcher for Dream Chaser... instant orbital tourism. Buy a dozen or so copies and you're in business.I don't expect to see a fleet of capsules parachuting into the desert -- landing will be pinpoint and turn-around rapid which can only be provided by Dream Chaser or a Dragon-like reentry scheme. Amazon doesn't print its own books or fabricate it's products, so Bezos might not build all of his own hardware.
Quote from: AncientU on 09/13/2016 11:54 amPerfect launcher for Dream Chaser... instant orbital tourism. Buy a dozen or so copies and you're in business.I don't expect to see a fleet of capsules parachuting into the desert -- landing will be pinpoint and turn-around rapid which can only be provided by Dream Chaser or a Dragon-like reentry scheme. Amazon doesn't print its own books or fabricate it's products, so Bezos might not build all of his own hardware.If it's scaled for 12 flights per year, you don't necessarily need fast turnaround.
Quote from: Nibb31 on 09/13/2016 12:25 pmQuote from: AncientU on 09/13/2016 11:54 amPerfect launcher for Dream Chaser... instant orbital tourism. Buy a dozen or so copies and you're in business.I don't expect to see a fleet of capsules parachuting into the desert -- landing will be pinpoint and turn-around rapid which can only be provided by Dream Chaser or a Dragon-like reentry scheme. Amazon doesn't print its own books or fabricate it's products, so Bezos might not build all of his own hardware.If it's scaled for 12 flights per year, you don't necessarily need fast turnaround.The initial ask at the Cape is for one flight per month. Nothing limits the number of launch sites or the pace of flights to that 'down payment.' Bezos isn't imagining millions of people in space at 12 launches per year. (IMO, he's thinking of daily or more frequent flights at some point down the road, just as SpaceX is envisioning.)Note: If that is hard to imagine, remember that today sixth graders have smart phones and several million people per day fly across the continent; a hundred years ago, only a few people had experienced powered flight, and the rotary dial telephone wasn't yet invented/sold. Steam powered auto-mobiles were being overtaken by those powered by internal combustion engines as the Model-T ramped up in production.
So Robert Zubrin quickly tweeted this after Blue's announcement:QuoteHere is my estimate of New Glenn performance. 70 tons to LEO, 20 tons to TMI. #Space #Science #Mars #MarsSocietySo he's saying the regular 2-stage New Glenn will send 70 tons to LEO, and the 3-stage version will send just over 20 tons to Trans-Mars Injection.That compares against Falcon Heavy's 54 tons to LEO, and 13.6 tons to Trans-Mars Injection.Still doesn't tell us who's cheaper.
Isn't it oversized for DC, thus being pricier than a appropriately sized LV, e.g. non-perfect?
My guess is that the spacecraft will be able to preform "demanding beyond-LEO missions" like the BE-3 upper stage is being designed to support. I bet that it will be sized to whatever amount of mass New Glenn can throw through TLI. I doubt that Blue would adopt a spacecraft design that is limited to LEO, and specifically LEO reentry velocities.
Quote from: sanman on 09/13/2016 07:21 amSo Robert Zubrin quickly tweeted this after Blue's announcement:[...]So he's saying the regular 2-stage New Glenn will send 70 tons to LEO, and the 3-stage version will send just over 20 tons to Trans-Mars Injection.And I'm not sure he takes into account the margins needed for reusability. (at least there is no mention of it) I suspect his numbers are on the optimistic side, but I haven't run any numbers myself.
So Robert Zubrin quickly tweeted this after Blue's announcement:[...]So he's saying the regular 2-stage New Glenn will send 70 tons to LEO, and the 3-stage version will send just over 20 tons to Trans-Mars Injection.
Quote from: notsorandom on 09/13/2016 04:23 pmMy guess is that the spacecraft will be able to preform "demanding beyond-LEO missions" like the BE-3 upper stage is being designed to support. I bet that it will be sized to whatever amount of mass New Glenn can throw through TLI. I doubt that Blue would adopt a spacecraft design that is limited to LEO, and specifically LEO reentry velocities.This probably is not a maximum-performance-based design decision, it is a marketing decision. The max capability of the vehicle will be used for BEO at some point, but not at first. Bezos in the business of selling rides.Where are the customers with cash in hand? That is where Blue will be found.