Author Topic: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle  (Read 6092 times)

Offline James Lowe1

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Offline Shuttle Man

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #1 on: 10/30/2005 04:09 am »
And this is after Griffin had spoken to JAXA? That would make this very interesting for the relevant to the 19 flight mandate.
Ex-Apollo, waiting for NASA to finish what we started.

Offline Chris Bergin

RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #2 on: 10/30/2005 07:56 am »
I believe so, which make it interesting indeed. Will have a look and see what flight this module is set to ride on.
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Offline UK Shuttle Clan

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #3 on: 10/30/2005 10:18 am »
I can't seem to find out which STS this is on as the manifest only says the US core as the parts decided on which Shuttle. Anyone know more?

Offline kcowing

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #4 on: 10/30/2005 02:22 pm »
Quote
Shuttle Man - 30/10/2005  12:09 AM

And this is after Griffin had spoken to JAXA? That would make this very interesting for the relevant to the 19 flight mandate.

Kibo will almost certainly fly. JAXA's small logistics module (which would be attached to the top docking port on the aft end of Kibo) may not fly, and the Centrifuge Accommodation Module which JAXA has been building for the U.S. will most certainly not fly.

Offline Rocket Guy

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #5 on: 10/30/2005 04:08 pm »
Yea, Kibo and Columbus are the major Int'l contributions and are certain to fly as Keith pointed out.

Offline kraisee

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #6 on: 10/30/2005 05:25 pm »
Quote
kcowing - 30/10/2005  10:22 AM

Quote
Shuttle Man - 30/10/2005  12:09 AM

And this is after Griffin had spoken to JAXA? That would make this very interesting for the relevant to the 19 flight mandate.

Kibo will almost certainly fly. JAXA's small logistics module (which would be attached to the top docking port on the aft end of Kibo) may not fly, and the Centrifuge Accommodation Module which JAXA has been building for the U.S. will most certainly not fly.

Everything could fly if we use the SDLV later on...

:)
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline kcowing

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #7 on: 10/30/2005 07:13 pm »
Quote
kraisee - 30/10/2005  12:25 PM

Quote
kcowing - 30/10/2005  10:22 AM

Quote
Shuttle Man - 30/10/2005  12:09 AM

And this is after Griffin had spoken to JAXA? That would make this very interesting for the relevant to the 19 flight mandate.

Kibo will almost certainly fly. JAXA's small logistics module (which would be attached to the top docking port on the aft end of Kibo) may not fly, and the Centrifuge Accommodation Module which JAXA has been building for the U.S. will most certainly not fly.

Everything could fly if we use the SDLV later on...

:)

Not true.  Some things i.e. the Centrifuge Accomodation Module and its payload hardware are being halted now so as to save funds to pay for future launch vehicle development. You can't launch something that does not exist.

Offline James Lowe1

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #8 on: 10/30/2005 08:09 pm »
Quote
Ben - 30/10/2005  11:08 AM

Yea, Kibo and Columbus are the major Int'l contributions and are certain to fly as Keith pointed out.

It's good to hear "major international contributions" and "certain to fly" in the same sentance.

Offline Spacely

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #9 on: 10/30/2005 08:33 pm »
I'm not totally up to speed on the ISS and what could/should/might-have been.

Any opinions here on whether the defunct Crew Hab module or the Centrifuge module is the bigger loss?


Offline kraisee

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #10 on: 10/30/2005 10:50 pm »
Quote
kcowing - 30/10/2005  3:13 PM

Quote
kraisee - 30/10/2005  12:25 PM

Quote
kcowing - 30/10/2005  10:22 AM

Quote
Shuttle Man - 30/10/2005  12:09 AM

And this is after Griffin had spoken to JAXA? That would make this very interesting for the relevant to the 19 flight mandate.

Kibo will almost certainly fly. JAXA's small logistics module (which would be attached to the top docking port on the aft end of Kibo) may not fly, and the Centrifuge Accommodation Module which JAXA has been building for the U.S. will most certainly not fly.

Everything could fly if we use the SDLV later on...

:)

Not true.  Some things i.e. the Centrifuge Accomodation Module and its payload hardware are being halted now so as to save funds to pay for future launch vehicle development. You can't launch something that does not exist.

If you cancel Shuttle now & stop building ISS, even after you allocate the money freed up to build SDLV early, it will leave you at least $1Bn spare change for other projects. I'm sure some of that could be used to finish the last few elements of ISS which are currently never going -to be used.

:)

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline kraisee

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #11 on: 10/30/2005 10:54 pm »
Quote
Spacely - 30/10/2005  4:33 PM

I'm not totally up to speed on the ISS and what could/should/might-have been.

Any opinions here on whether the defunct Crew Hab module or the Centrifuge module is the bigger loss?


I think they'd both have proven very useful to everyone.

Without the Hab Module, there won't ever be a full compliment of 6 crew on ISS.

Without the Centrifuge Module you don't really get much more research into the effects of long-duration space flight than we've had in our hands since the days of MIR.

Nobody has ever stayed on ISS longer than the Russian's did on MIR - so the best current data comes from then.

Mind you, without the power plant module on ISS, any of these modules would be severly curtailed in their power requirements anyway.

ISS launched by Shuttle will always be a crippled project IMHO.

-Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline Flightstar

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #12 on: 10/30/2005 10:58 pm »
Yes, this is the problem. Some modules are a good idea, but involve more than one flight given the power ratio increase required.

Offline kcowing

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #13 on: 10/30/2005 11:41 pm »
Quote
kraisee - 30/10/2005  5:50 PM

Quote
kcowing - 30/10/2005  3:13 PM

Quote
kraisee - 30/10/2005  12:25 PM

Quote
kcowing - 30/10/2005  10:22 AM

Quote
Shuttle Man - 30/10/2005  12:09 AM

And this is after Griffin had spoken to JAXA? That would make this very interesting for the relevant to the 19 flight mandate.

Kibo will almost certainly fly. JAXA's small logistics module (which would be attached to the top docking port on the aft end of Kibo) may not fly, and the Centrifuge Accommodation Module which JAXA has been building for the U.S. will most certainly not fly.

Everything could fly if we use the SDLV later on...

:)

Not true.  Some things i.e. the Centrifuge Accomodation Module and its payload hardware are being halted now so as to save funds to pay for future launch vehicle development. You can't launch something that does not exist.

If you cancel Shuttle now & stop building ISS, even after you allocate the money freed up to build SDLV early, it will leave you at least $1Bn spare change for other projects. I'm sure some of that could be used to finish the last few elements of ISS which are currently never going -to be used.

:)

Ross.

Trust me, there will be no "spare change".  There never is.  Every penny will be spent on CEV, CLV, SDLV, and lunar architecture development and other things - NASA will make absolutely sure of that.  These items are being cancelled to save money, plain and simple. As for finishing these elements, given the state that various elements to be cancelled are currently in - and what it would take to pick up years hence, it would be cheaper in the long run to find additional money and finish them now and put them into long term storage than to simply start all over again years from now - more or less from scratch. You can't just put the development of things like the CAM up on a shelf and get back to it later. But NASA is not thinking about the long term consequences - they need as much money as they can find just to build the CLV and SDLV and they are taking it from things they now deem "unnecessary".  If they don't find enough money they will deem more things to be "unnecessary". Once the CAM is cancelled, it is gone.

Offline Flightstar

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #14 on: 10/30/2005 11:54 pm »
That's an interesting comment, Keith and I thank you for your educated input.

We (USA) keep getting told, mainly through cooler talk, that money is being saved through cuts to support STS on a "minimum" eight flight manifest. This is one of the first times I've seen the phrase that denotes the money is being saved for the CLV/CEV/SDLV. A reduction in STS activites was apparently going to be paying for the CLV/CEV with the full funds kicking in once retirement has occured. While that confirms as such the Griffin comments that the VSE is coming out of the exsisting FY on FY budget projections were these cuts already planned or has NASA suddenly found its numbers not adding up?

Offline lmike

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #15 on: 10/31/2005 12:07 am »
Quote
Spacely - 30/10/2005  3:33 PM
...
Any opinions here on whether the defunct Crew Hab module or the Centrifuge module is the bigger loss?

Here's a brief description of the Centrifuge module+CAM: http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/space/spacestation/components/centrifuge_module.html

I, for one, am puzzled as to why a (IMHO, THE) most important experiment to our progress for the out-of-LEO manned spaceflight, and even survival of humans on varying G level planets, on the ISS (and one reason I would fully support the ISS research for) would be in sent into limbo now.

Offline Mark Max Q

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #16 on: 10/31/2005 12:46 am »
I hope there is a way to add to the ISS post STS.

Offline kcowing

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #17 on: 10/31/2005 01:18 am »
Quote
lmike - 30/10/2005  7:07 PM

Quote
Spacely - 30/10/2005  3:33 PM
...
Any opinions here on whether the defunct Crew Hab module or the Centrifuge module is the bigger loss?

Here's a brief description of the Centrifuge module+CAM: http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/space/spacestation/components/centrifuge_module.html

I, for one, am puzzled as to why a (IMHO, THE) most important experiment to our progress for the out-of-LEO manned spaceflight, and even survival of humans on varying G level planets, on the ISS (and one reason I would fully support the ISS research for) would be in sent into limbo now.

I am working on a long article that gets into that. When I worked for NASA - on Space Station Freedom - I was Payload Accomodations Manager for the Centrifuge Facility - and associated hardware. I am also a gavitational biologist by training. As such, I am really sad to see it die.  Indeed, in one meeting, I actually named the module "Centrifuge Accommodations Module". Before that my documents I was writing called it the "Centrifuge Accommodations Node" (also my name). This was a placeholder name. The acronym was "CAN" and some people did not like that. True story.

Others (me) saw a Node (at least how we designed them back in the early 1990s) as being too small to do the job right.  This was before Node 3.  We wanted a special module designed around the Centrifuge Facilty. CAM was also a placeholder name.

I wanted to call it "Darwin" (he did some of the earliest work on gravitational biology). My bosses at the time said "we don't give cute names to modules" That was before "Kibio", "Raffaelo" .. .etc.

Offline Terrible Twosome

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #18 on: 10/31/2005 03:20 am »
Space Station Freedom? I'm only young and thus do not know about this. Can anyone show me links or pictures?

Offline Peter NASA

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #19 on: 10/31/2005 03:26 am »
Quote
Terrible Twosome - 30/10/2005  10:20 PM

Space Station Freedom? I'm only young and thus do not know about this. Can anyone show me links or pictures?

http://www.friends-partners.org/partners/mwade/graphics/grame138.htm

Enjoy.

Offline kraisee

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #20 on: 10/31/2005 03:27 am »
Quote
kcowing - 30/10/2005  7:41 PM

Trust me, there will be no "spare change".  There never is.  Every penny will be spent on CEV, CLV, SDLV, and lunar architecture development and other things - NASA will make absolutely sure of that.  These items are being cancelled to save money, plain and simple. As for finishing these elements, given the state that various elements to be cancelled are currently in - and what it would take to pick up years hence, it would be cheaper in the long run to find additional money and finish them now and put them into long term storage than to simply start all over again years from now - more or less from scratch. You can't just put the development of things like the CAM up on a shelf and get back to it later. But NASA is not thinking about the long term consequences - they need as much money as they can find just to build the CLV and SDLV and they are taking it from things they now deem "unnecessary".  If they don't find enough money they will deem more things to be "unnecessary". Once the CAM is cancelled, it is gone.

Keith,
   I wholeheartedly agree with your view that the ISS modules should be finished ASAP and then stored until flight - but there are a couple of other points I'd like to comment on.

One, NASA isn't spending any significant money now on the SDLV development.   The CEV & CLV are getting all the Exploration Systems money, not the SDLV.   A relatively tiny bit of design work and conceptualization is going on on the big booster, but no real work will take place until Shuttle has already retired.

And two, IF STS were to finish next year, NASA would then use the $5Bn from the STS to allocate to the SDLV program and speed up the development of CEV too, but they could do that without having to close down the currently allocated funding used to build the last few outstanding ISS elements.   If NASA wants to fly them still, they wouldn't HAVE to cut that development work.

As you say, if CAM or SPP is shelved at all, they're done for.   But what I'm saying is that by going with the "accelerated program", they wouldn't have to be cancelled - they could really still fly and we could have the full ISS again - oh, AND accelerate both the moon and Mars programs by 5 years too.

-Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline kcowing

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #21 on: 10/31/2005 03:44 am »
Quote
kraisee - 30/10/2005  10:27 PM

Quote
kcowing - 30/10/2005  7:41 PM

Trust me, there will be no "spare change".  There never is.  Every penny will be spent on CEV, CLV, SDLV, and lunar architecture development and other things - NASA will make absolutely sure of that.  These items are being cancelled to save money, plain and simple. As for finishing these elements, given the state that various elements to be cancelled are currently in - and what it would take to pick up years hence, it would be cheaper in the long run to find additional money and finish them now and put them into long term storage than to simply start all over again years from now - more or less from scratch. You can't just put the development of things like the CAM up on a shelf and get back to it later. But NASA is not thinking about the long term consequences - they need as much money as they can find just to build the CLV and SDLV and they are taking it from things they now deem "unnecessary".  If they don't find enough money they will deem more things to be "unnecessary". Once the CAM is cancelled, it is gone.

Keith,
   I wholeheartedly agree with your view that the ISS modules should be finished ASAP and then stored until flight - but there are a couple of other points I'd like to comment on.

One, NASA isn't spending any significant money now on the SDLV development.   The CEV & CLV are getting all the Exploration Systems money, not the SDLV.   A relatively tiny bit of design work and conceptualization is going on on the big booster, but no real work will take place until Shuttle has already retired.

And two, IF STS were to finish next year, NASA would then use the $5Bn from the STS to allocate to the SDLV program and speed up the development of CEV too, but they could do that without having to close down the currently allocated funding used to build the last few outstanding ISS elements.   If NASA wants to fly them still, they wouldn't HAVE to cut that development work.

As you say, if CAM or SPP is shelved at all, they're done for.   But what I'm saying is that by going with the "accelerated program", they wouldn't have to be cancelled - they could really still fly and we could have the full ISS again - oh, AND accelerate both the moon and Mars programs by 5 years too.

-Ross.

There is no "accelerated program" for SDLV. NASA will fly shuttles until 2010 or so. There will be no funds sitting around to accelerate SDLV. How many Shuttle flights? TBD. They barely have enough to get CEV/CLV started as it is and admit privately that things will get delayed by several years.  Any funds saved - regardless of how that is done - will be poured into CEV, CLV, and then SDLV - in that order of priority. They are not going to shut shuttle down early - that is politically impossible - end of discussion.  You guys need to get over this "SDLV sooner" notion. It ain't gonna happen.

Offline kcowing

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #22 on: 10/31/2005 03:50 am »
Quote
Peter NASA - 30/10/2005  10:26 PM

Quote
Terrible Twosome - 30/10/2005  10:20 PM

Space Station Freedom? I'm only young and thus do not know about this. Can anyone show me links or pictures?

http://www.friends-partners.org/partners/mwade/graphics/grame138.htm

Enjoy.

Space Station Freedom is what ISS was before it was ISS - the name stems from Ronald Ragan in the mid 1980s.  Much of the hardware on orbit today was designed by the SSF program. SSF was redesigned to save money - in part by bringing the Russians in. Alas, that decision ended up causing multi-year delays (since the Russians were broke) and an increase in costs (since NASA can't count). Curiously, when Clinton brought the Russians in they felt the need to change the name so it was now the "International" Space Station. Silly distinction since SSF was quite "international" already - ESA, Japan, CSA, Italy, etc.  Adding the Russians did not make it "international"...

Offline kraisee

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #23 on: 10/31/2005 03:56 am »
Quote
kcowing - 30/10/2005  11:44 PM

There is no "accelerated program" for SDLV. NASA will fly shuttles until 2010 or so. There will be no funds sitting around to accelerate SDLV. How many Shuttle flights? TBD. They barely have enough to get CEV/CLV started as it is and admit privately that things will get delayed by several years.  Any funds saved - regardless of how that is done - will be poured into CEV, CLV, and then SDLV - in that order of priority. They are not going to shut shuttle down early - that is politically impossible - end of discussion.  You guys need to get over this "SDLV sooner" notion. It ain't gonna happen.

I believe you've got some of the best contacts out there, and if anyone can find the real SP on this, I think it'd be you.

But I have heard this from a number of different sources, some NASA, some contractor - including one fairly high up in the ESMD itself.   He believed it was directly tied to Griffin's comments after the Andy Card meeting at the White House about Shuttle not flying any more.

These same guys tipped me off that the decision about SDLV design had been made in favour of the In-Line concept about six weeks before you broke the story on NASAWatch.   That info being correct gives me a reason to have some faith in what they've said to me this time too.

I'm guessing you've already got many feelers out though, so I'm certain that you will find any real paydirt if there is any to be found.

-Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline kcowing

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #24 on: 10/31/2005 04:42 am »
Quote
kraisee - 30/10/2005  10:56 PM

Quote
kcowing - 30/10/2005  11:44 PM

There is no "accelerated program" for SDLV. NASA will fly shuttles until 2010 or so. There will be no funds sitting around to accelerate SDLV. How many Shuttle flights? TBD. They barely have enough to get CEV/CLV started as it is and admit privately that things will get delayed by several years.  Any funds saved - regardless of how that is done - will be poured into CEV, CLV, and then SDLV - in that order of priority. They are not going to shut shuttle down early - that is politically impossible - end of discussion.  You guys need to get over this "SDLV sooner" notion. It ain't gonna happen.

I believe you've got some of the best contacts out there, and if anyone can find the real SP on this, I think it'd be you.

But I have heard this from a number of different sources, some NASA, some contractor - including one fairly high up in the ESMD itself.   He believed it was directly tied to Griffin's comments after the Andy Card meeting at the White House about Shuttle not flying any more.

These same guys tipped me off that the decision about SDLV design had been made in favour of the In-Line concept about six weeks before you broke the story on NASAWatch.   That info being correct gives me a reason to have some faith in what they've said to me this time too.

I'm guessing you've already got many feelers out though, so I'm certain that you will find any real paydirt if there is any to be found.

-Ross.

It would be politically impossible to shut the shuttle down any early than the 2010 time frame. Griffin's recollection of his lunch with Andy Card is not exactly accurate either - and everyone here in DC knows that.


Offline lmike

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RE: JAXA still thinks it's got a mission on a Shuttle
« Reply #25 on: 11/01/2005 01:50 am »
First of all, thanks Keith for that great background for the Centrifuge module's history.  Looking forward to the article.  Sounds like you are uniquely qualified to do it.

WRT re-working ISS modules to launch on expendables, I just ran into this article on spaceflightnow.com: http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n0510/30esaarm/ .  The ESA is recertifying its robotic arm for a flight on a Proton-M in 2007.  A 20mil euro contract.  This is partially because the Russians now plan to launch their latest re-incarnation of the FGB-2 spare (now called the MLM) on the Proton instead of the old planned module they cancelled that was to launch on the shuttle.  Somewhat tangentially related to the thread, and it's in a different weight class, but I thought it sets somewhat of a precedent.

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