Author Topic: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7  (Read 225943 times)

Offline kraisee

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #80 on: 05/20/2018 04:10 am »
KSC is located on a wildlife refuge where there are lots of endangered animals, and launch operations.

Even accidents like AMOS-6 do little, if any, harm to the local critters because the fences and daily human activity keep most things away from the busy areas.

I have no doubt that SpX will take all reasonable precautions to protect all of the native flora and fauna.

IMHO, the most dangerous event of all, would be an uncontrolled leak of methane that can't be closed-off, creating a dispersal cloud miles in length that could either suffocate creatures (inc. people) or eventually get mixed with enough air to make an explosive mix.

But this is something the natural gas industry is already very well versed in, and there are very good safety rules in place regarding the safe handling of methane at a large number of major global LNG ports, and they routinely handle vastly larger quantities than SpX ever will.   It's a non-zero risk, yes, but I do not think its significant enough that I'd want to move my home if I lived locally.

Ross.
« Last Edit: 05/20/2018 04:19 am by kraisee »
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Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #81 on: 05/20/2018 04:53 am »
 Been some property updates. I see Dogleg finally admits they bought 8 Weems.
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Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #82 on: 05/20/2018 04:57 am »
KSC is located on a wildlife refuge where there are lots of endangered animals, and launch operations.

Even accidents like AMOS-6 do little, if any, harm to the local critters because the fences and daily human activity keep most things away from the busy areas.

I have no doubt that SpX will take all reasonable precautions to protect all of the native flora and fauna.

IMHO, the most dangerous event of all, would be an uncontrolled leak of methane that can't be closed-off, creating a dispersal cloud miles in length that could either suffocate creatures (inc. people) or eventually get mixed with enough air to make an explosive mix.

But this is something the natural gas industry is already very well versed in, and there are very good safety rules in place regarding the safe handling of methane at a large number of major global LNG ports, and they routinely handle vastly larger quantities than SpX ever will.   It's a non-zero risk, yes, but I do not think its significant enough that I'd want to move my home if I lived locally.

Ross.
One of those huge global ports is going up a few miles from Boca Chica. If people want to worry about something, those LNG sites would be a lot bigger potential for badness than a rocket launching.
« Last Edit: 05/20/2018 05:13 am by Nomadd »
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline edzieba

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #83 on: 05/21/2018 01:48 pm »
KSC is located on a wildlife refuge where there are lots of endangered animals, and launch operations.

Even accidents like AMOS-6 do little, if any, harm to the local critters because the fences and daily human activity keep most things away from the busy areas.

I have no doubt that SpX will take all reasonable precautions to protect all of the native flora and fauna.

IMHO, the most dangerous event of all, would be an uncontrolled leak of methane that can't be closed-off, creating a dispersal cloud miles in length that could either suffocate creatures (inc. people) or eventually get mixed with enough air to make an explosive mix.

But this is something the natural gas industry is already very well versed in, and there are very good safety rules in place regarding the safe handling of methane at a large number of major global LNG ports, and they routinely handle vastly larger quantities than SpX ever will.   It's a non-zero risk, yes, but I do not think its significant enough that I'd want to move my home if I lived locally.

Ross.
One of those huge global ports is going up a few miles from Boca Chica. If people want to worry about something, those LNG sites would be a lot bigger potential for badness than a rocket launching.
They generally don't deliberately stuff a whole load into the thinnest walled tank possible, then set it on fire and throw it up into the air on top of an explosion, though.
You worry about a LNG processing facility possibly exploding. You worry about a massive Methalox rocket not exploding the precisely correct amount.

Offline ThereIWas3

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #84 on: 05/21/2018 02:55 pm »
Now I understand Joanna Gaines' preoccupation with slapping up shiplap on every wall instead of plasterboard.  Maybe looking forward to move from Waco down to the coast for lots of remodelling jobs.

Offline Dave G

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #85 on: 05/22/2018 02:55 pm »
Been some property updates. I see Dogleg finally admits they bought 8 Weems.

Offline kraisee

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #86 on: 05/22/2018 05:11 pm »
One of those huge global ports is going up a few miles from Boca Chica. If people want to worry about something, those LNG sites would be a lot bigger potential for badness than a rocket launching.
They generally don't deliberately stuff a whole load into the thinnest walled tank possible, then set it on fire and throw it up into the air on top of an explosion, though.
You worry about a LNG processing facility possibly exploding. You worry about a massive Methalox rocket not exploding the precisely correct amount.

The rocket blowing up is not all that bad, because as we've seen from events like STS-51L and AMOS-6, the fuel doesn't mix with the oxidizer (or the air) very effectively, so you end up with a conflagration - not an actual explosion - and those have a fairly limited footprint.   Other than some loud noises, everything dangerous should be totally contained within the perimeter fence.

The uncontrollable leak is the worst case scenario, because all your fuel could be released as a gas, which over time would be carried on the wind and would mix with the local air making a potentially explosive fuel/air mixture covering a very large area, maybe stretching well beyond the perimeter fence. One ignition source in such an environment would make for a bad day.

An LNG plant has far more methane to deal with than SpX will ever handle, even if they did daily flights, so LNG plants have the potential for much bigger events.   But the basic storage and piping technology is the same, and it is designed to reduce these risks to the absolute minimum.

Its a worst case scenario, and the risk is minimal. For my money, I probably wouldn't buy a home all that near to an LNG plant, but the SpX quantities don't worry me, so I wouldn't have the same concerns near their launch facilities.

If I lived near their pads, the only thing I might do, is to install a protective mirror film on my windows, just in case there ever was a bang loud enough to shatter them. After that, I'd just enjoy the show!

Ross.
« Last Edit: 05/22/2018 05:18 pm by kraisee »
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Offline edzieba

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #87 on: 05/23/2018 07:51 am »
Even a 'gentle' deflagration of a BFR/BFS stack leaves ~150 tons (closer to 300 tons if you include a maximum payload mass) of scattered debris to land on anyone unfortunate enough to be downrange, hence the NOTAM/NOMAR areas. Those areas are the big problem, as that sticks a big stamp right into busy shipping lanes that everyone then needs to work around.

Offline mlindner

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #88 on: 05/26/2018 08:32 am »
Even a 'gentle' deflagration of a BFR/BFS stack leaves ~150 tons (closer to 300 tons if you include a maximum payload mass) of scattered debris to land on anyone unfortunate enough to be downrange, hence the NOTAM/NOMAR areas. Those areas are the big problem, as that sticks a big stamp right into busy shipping lanes that everyone then needs to work around.

I think we've treaded over this issue plenty already in this thread. Including people running the numbers on the conflagration sizes of a BFR explosion. We don't need to really re-tread this all over again.
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Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #89 on: 05/29/2018 09:15 pm »
 The camera still works. Not much happened in the last three months. Two small, blue buildings, a paint job for the big generator, a roll up door and some signs.
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Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #90 on: 05/30/2018 12:35 am »
The camera still works. Not much happened in the last three months. Two small, blue buildings, a paint job for the big generator, a roll up door and some signs.

Are the antennas more wired up than they had been previously?  It's been a while since I remember seeing such a clear picture of them.

Welcome back, by the way.  Sounds like you had a good trip.  :)
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Offline philw1776

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #91 on: 05/30/2018 12:03 pm »
We're heading into June 2018. The talked about April influx of SpaceX construction workers finished with FH pad work is still yet to happen.  Perhaps the launch complex & landing pads and ground support equipment for BFS hop flights is purposefully minimal and can be built out in single digit months. We know from Elon's schedule that there is no rush to construct a big BFR launch pad at this date since its testing occurs later. Perhaps there is still some further permit acquisition that still needs to happen before extensive and expensive construction.
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Offline cscott

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #92 on: 05/30/2018 02:55 pm »
Only some over-optimistic folks thought we'd get an influx after FH. I think the conservative opinion was that we wouldn't see Boca Chica pick up until after Crew Dragon pad work was complete (crew access arm and the rest of the LC39 modifications).

In addition: apparently there are some minor GSE differences between block 4 and block 5 as well; until a block 5 has launched from all three SpaceX pads we might guess there's still time-critical non-BC work for pad folks to prioritize.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #93 on: 05/30/2018 05:11 pm »
The camera still works. Not much happened in the last three months. Two small, blue buildings, a paint job for the big generator, a roll up door and some signs.

Are the antennas more wired up than they had been previously?  It's been a while since I remember seeing such a clear picture of them.

Welcome back, by the way.  Sounds like you had a good trip.  :)
Nothing new with the antennas except some underground lines being run.
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline Austin Dave

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #94 on: 05/30/2018 11:52 pm »
SpaceX announced the Falcon Heavy in 2011, and predicted that the first flight would be in 2013.  The first flight actually occurred this year, which was 5 years later than the original prediction.

SpaceX said that the initial test flights of the BFS would be at Boca Chica later this year or early next year.  Based on the development of the FH this would indicate that the BFS won't happen till 2023.  Yes I know that SpaceX has a goal of sending cargo to Mars in 2022, and people in 2024.  However, these are "aspirational" goals, and I doubt if many believe that the BFR will do this by 2022.  Maybe FH could be used in 2022 for an initial flight to Mars.

So it seems like there is little urgency in building a BFS/BFB test range at Boca Chica.  Maybe we'll see some construction activity here in 2 or 3 years.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #95 on: 05/31/2018 01:50 am »
 Yeah, because we haven't heard that enough yet. Maybe you should repeat it six or seven more times just to be sure.
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline IanThePineapple

SpaceX announced the Falcon Heavy in 2011, and predicted that the first flight would be in 2013.  The first flight actually occurred this year, which was 5 years later than the original prediction.

SpaceX said that the initial test flights of the BFS would be at Boca Chica later this year or early next year.  Based on the development of the FH this would indicate that the BFS won't happen till 2023.  Yes I know that SpaceX has a goal of sending cargo to Mars in 2022, and people in 2024.  However, these are "aspirational" goals, and I doubt if many believe that the BFR will do this by 2022.  Maybe FH could be used in 2022 for an initial flight to Mars.

So it seems like there is little urgency in building a BFS/BFB test range at Boca Chica.  Maybe we'll see some construction activity here in 2 or 3 years.

Falcon Heavy was a backburner project for SpaceX while they focused on F9, Crew Dragon and BFR.

BFR will be their main goal likely within a year, once Crew Dragon's and Falcon 9's design and testing are finished.

Offline Austin Dave

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #97 on: 05/31/2018 03:35 am »
Yeah, because we haven't heard that enough yet. Maybe you should repeat it six or seven more times just to be sure.

If construction doesn't start for 3 years that just means I'd only have to repeat it every 6 months. :)

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #98 on: 05/31/2018 08:06 pm »
SpaceX announced the Falcon Heavy in 2011, and predicted that the first flight would be in 2013.  The first flight actually occurred this year, which was 5 years later than the original prediction.

SpaceX said that the initial test flights of the BFS would be at Boca Chica later this year or early next year.  Based on the development of the FH this would indicate that the BFS won't happen till 2023.  Yes I know that SpaceX has a goal of sending cargo to Mars in 2022, and people in 2024.  However, these are "aspirational" goals, and I doubt if many believe that the BFR will do this by 2022.  Maybe FH could be used in 2022 for an initial flight to Mars.

So it seems like there is little urgency in building a BFS/BFB test range at Boca Chica.  Maybe we'll see some construction activity here in 2 or 3 years.

(fan) not sure that's a valid extrapolation. Yes, there still is some time dilation but this isn't 2011 ... SpaceX are a bit more mature.

(mod) And this topic has been raised over and over. So maybe let's not rehash it.
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Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 7
« Reply #99 on: 06/02/2018 08:18 pm »
 Finally recovered enough to take a walk. (After 2 1/2 months climbing around volcanoes and walking the wilderness, I naturally twisted my knee slipping on a doorstep back home)
 We have rolls of tar and insulation or something showing up.
 Diesel tanks at the control center.
 They took the fence around STARGATE down.
 What Blue Agave look like when the stalks don't fall over before you get back home to see them. I got about 35 feet for these.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2018 10:46 pm by Nomadd »
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

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