It depends on which national security mission that we need to get. How many flights depends on which mission but we have a number of commercial customers for Falcon Heavy and so I it's not gonna be in any way an impediment to acceptance of national security missions. We'll be doing several heavy missions flights per year so, say there's a big national security satellite that's due for launch in three or four years and we're probably have like a dozen or more launches done by then.I don't think launch number will be an inhibitor for national security stuff. And yeah so I think we've got the STP mission that's coming up which is another test mission that will go on falcon heavy block 5 and then we'll be launching block 5 single stick in a couple months so I think it's hopefully smooth sailing for qualification for national security missions.Our investment to date probably a lot more than I'd like to admit. We tried to cancel the Falcon Heavy program three times at SpaceX because it's like 'man this is way harder than we thought'. The initial idea was just I thought you know you stick on two first stages of side boosters how hard can it be? It's like way hard.We have to redesign the center core completely. We redesigned the grid fins, because well it's a long story but you've got a nose cone on the end of at the end of the booster instead of a cylinder, you lose control authority because if you if you've got a cylinder you can kind of bounce the air off of the rocket and you get like a 30% more increased control authority than if you've got a cylindrical section instead of a Ogive section at the end of the booster so we have to redesign the grid fins. Redesigning the control system.Vastly redesigned the thrust structure at the base to take way more load - that center boosters got to deal with over a million pounds of load coming in combined from the site boosters so it ends up being heavier so that the center core basically complete redesign, and even the side boosters has a pretty large number of parts that change. Then the launch site itself needs to change a lot.I'm guessing our total investment is over half a billion. Probably more.
Falcon Heavy opens up a new class of payload. It can launch more than twice as much payload as any other rocket in the world, so it's kind of up to customers what want. It can launch things direct to Pluto and beyond with no need for a gravity assist or anything. Launch giant satellites, it can do anything you want. You could send people back to the moon with a bunch of Falcon Heavy and an orbital refilling. Two or three falcon heavies would equal the payload of a Saturn Five.
How do you think the successful flight of Falcon Heavy will impact SLS? Will there be consequences? Will development of the rocket continue as planned, will the status quo will be maintained? Or is there any chance for the Adminstration to redirect the Lunar efforts to Falcon Heavy?
Quote from: Svetoslav on 02/07/2018 12:34 pmHow do you think the successful flight of Falcon Heavy will impact SLS? Will there be consequences? Will development of the rocket continue as planned, will the status quo will be maintained? Or is there any chance for the Adminstration to redirect the Lunar efforts to Falcon Heavy?No impact to SLS. Remember, Falcon Heavy hasn't just come on the scene....in fact she's years late and SLS wasn't riding along a competitive path. The only rocket that will be muttering in a disgruntled manner will be Delta IV-Heavy.
The only rocket that will be muttering in a disgruntled manner will be Delta IV-Heavy.
$500 million to develop Falcon Heavy, compared to $2.5 billion per year on SLS development... We probably spend more money on SLS every year now than it took SpaceX to develop it's entire product line from scratch.
The only thing that could challenge SLS is someone in the USG deciding to actually start an exploration program using existing assets. Nothing directly would happen to SLS even then... it would just accelerate its slide into irrelevance, then oblivion.But that assumes someone in the USG actually do something; also highly unlikely to happen.
How do you think the successful flight of Falcon Heavy will impact SLS?
Will there be consequences?
Will development of the rocket continue as planned, will the status quo will be maintained?
Or is there any chance for the Adminstration to redirect the Lunar efforts to Falcon Heavy?
SLS, even the interim, limited Block 1 variant, has more payload capability than Falcon Heavy. Orion is crew capable. Falcon Heavy is not. Falcon Heavy cannot replace SLS/Orion. It is that simple.
SLS, even the interim, limited Block 1 variant, has more payload capability than Falcon Heavy. Orion is crew capable. Falcon Heavy is not. Falcon Heavy cannot replace SLS/Orion. It is that simple.Sorted by Payload Capability==============================================================Vehicle 1st Flt TransLunar TransMars GTO ==============================================================SLS Blk 2 2028? >45,000 kg >37,600 kg N/ASLS Blk 1B 2021? 39,000 kg 32,000 kg N/ASLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kg N/AFalcon Heavy-X 2018? ~20,500 kg 16,800 kg 26,700 kgFalcon Heavy 2018? ~5,500 kg ~4,900 kg 8,000 kg=============================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version - Ed Kyle
Sorted by Payload Capability==============================================================Vehicle 1st Flt TransLunar TransMars GTO ==============================================================SLS Blk 2 2028? >45,000 kg >37,600 kg N/ASLS Blk 1B 2021? 39,000 kg 32,000 kg N/ASLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kg N/AFalcon Heavy-X 2018? ~20,500 kg 16,800 kg 26,700 kgFalcon Heavy 2018? ~5,500 kg ~4,900 kg 8,000 kg=============================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version