A basic calendar approximation doesn't tell the whole story.The primary hurdle right now is commissioning of the second mobile launch platform and vertical integration facility. My estimate of December is based on when I think that will be ready.Achieving that unlocks a significant improvement to cadence that the year-to-date trend would fail to recognize, including multiple launches in a single month, something that is impractical otherwise.
Quote from: sstli2 on 09/29/2025 04:56 pmA basic calendar approximation doesn't tell the whole story.The primary hurdle right now is commissioning of the second mobile launch platform and vertical integration facility. My estimate of December is based on when I think that will be ready.Achieving that unlocks a significant improvement to cadence that the year-to-date trend would fail to recognize, including multiple launches in a single month, something that is impractical otherwise.How long does it take from start of processing in the existing VIF until launch? When does the new VIF need to begin processing its first launch until that launch occurs? My guess: the very first launch will take at least a little bit of extra time. Use this to compute the latest "opening day" for VIF-A to have any effect on the 2025 statistics.You are correct: the past cannot be blindly used to predict the future. Is should not be ignored, either.
Q: When do you expect the first launch stacked out of VIF-A? Is it still October?
This year
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 09/29/2025 05:54 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 09/29/2025 04:56 pmA basic calendar approximation doesn't tell the whole story.The primary hurdle right now is commissioning of the second mobile launch platform and vertical integration facility. My estimate of December is based on when I think that will be ready.Achieving that unlocks a significant improvement to cadence that the year-to-date trend would fail to recognize, including multiple launches in a single month, something that is impractical otherwise.How long does it take from start of processing in the existing VIF until launch? When does the new VIF need to begin processing its first launch until that launch occurs? My guess: the very first launch will take at least a little bit of extra time. Use this to compute the latest "opening day" for VIF-A to have any effect on the 2025 statistics.You are correct: the past cannot be blindly used to predict the future. Is should not be ignored, either.As-of a couple weeks ago:QuoteQ: When do you expect the first launch stacked out of VIF-A? Is it still October?Quote from: Tory Bruno @torybruno.bsky.socialThis year
Kuiper update at WSBW from Ricky Freeman, President of Kuiper Govt. Services:- 3 more launches this year- End of year: 200 sats in orbit- Q1 2026: continuous coverage- End of 2026: in 26 countries- 2027: 54 countries, full global coverage- 2028: up to 100 countries and begin launching gen-2 constellation of an additional 3,200 sats
When do you expect to start stacking the first Vulcan in VIF-A?
A few weeks
2111-EX-ST-2025 [Dec 12]QuoteThis STA request is for commercial satellite launches and commercial crewed launches at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station Launch Complex 41. The Atlas and Vulcan launch vehicles will be using the standard S-Band telemetry transmitter. While Atlas missions will also use the standard S-Band GPS transmitter. Trajectory data shall be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA.Operation Start Date: 02/10/2026Operation End Date: 08/10/2026For VulcanThe Vulcan missions will be launched on a North Easterly trajectory from Eastern Range (ER) Launch Complex 41 (SLC-41). Two Centaur V main engine burns using Guidance Commanded Shutdown (GCS) will place the spacecraft into a Low Earth Orbit (approximately 450 km circular at 51.9 deg inclination). The first spacecraft separation event will occur at approximately 1 hour and 10 minutes after liftoff. The separation sequence (21 events) lasts about 26 minutes. After the final separation event the Centaur V coasts for approximately 650 seconds before turning to the third burn attitude. The third burn (which occurs almost two hours after liftoff) will place the Centaur V onto a reentry trajectory to dispose of the upper stage in the Pacific Ocean. Impact occurs about two and a half hours after liftoff.
This STA request is for commercial satellite launches and commercial crewed launches at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station Launch Complex 41. The Atlas and Vulcan launch vehicles will be using the standard S-Band telemetry transmitter. While Atlas missions will also use the standard S-Band GPS transmitter. Trajectory data shall be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA.Operation Start Date: 02/10/2026Operation End Date: 08/10/2026
This makes a specific reference to 21 separation events. Should we be able to extrapolate the number of satellites from that number? I would have thought each event is 3 satellites, but that would imply 63 which is too high. 1 satellite would be 21 which is too low. So is the logical interpretation here that each event is 2 satellites and Vulcan will carry 42 Amazon LEO satellites per launch?
Bruno said they are looking at late summer for the first launch of Kuiper satellites on a Vulcan rocket, which would carry 45 Kuiper satellites on board.
The Vulcan mobile launch platform (VLP-A) is at the launch pad undergoing its second phase of technical testing, marking a significant milestone as we advance toward the inaugural @Amazonleo launch.
Progress toward another inaugural heavy-lift launch, as @ulalaunch preps an all-new launch platform (VLP-A) and integration facility (VIF-A) dedicated to Leo missions on Vulcan. Payload for LV-01 is fully stacked ahead of launch, and processing is already underway for LV-02.
Vulcan, Atlas V, New Glenn, and Ariane 6 delays caused ~12 months of delay to the deployment schedule
