Vulcan VC6L : Amazon Leo LV-01 : CCSFS SLC-41 : 2026

[Robert_the_Doll]

Given:

- ULA have yet to stack and launch a Vulcan in under a month
- We have not heard an indication of the commencement of stacking
- This is the inaugural launch of a new configuration (VC6) with a new MLP

It seems to me February is out of the question, and possibly early March as well. I think you have to go with a NET of mid March.

They are getting close to it. The USSF-106 mission was LVOS on July 7 and launched August 13. An interval of ~37 days.

For Comparison, Certification-2 stacking started ~August 10 and did not launch until October 4

USS-87's launch campaign was looking like it was going to be the shortest at ~34 days until the delay (unspecified what it was) pushed it back to February 12.

[leeloodallasmultipass]

Vulcan, Atlas V, New Glenn, and Ariane 6 delays caused ~12 months of delay to the deployment schedule

This smells of Amazon trying to put the blame on the launchers and really surprising that they tried to lump Atlas in there, assuming that is not a typo on AndrewM's part since Atlas V was flying and available waiting for Amazon to get enough satellites built to fly in 2024. The only real delays with Atlas have been minor technical, weather, and range availability ones, which are typical for any rocket.

Had there been enough satellites, all eight Atlas earmarked for Kuiper/Leo could have been flown off by now and they would have nearly 300 satellites in orbit.

For a few months, it was Amazon's fault. Beginning h2 2025, it became ULA's fault though. They delayed every critical infrastructure project at least 6 months. Tory promised bimonthly launches from h2 2025, didnt deliver.

[AndrewM]

Vulcan, Atlas V, New Glenn, and Ariane 6 delays caused ~12 months of delay to the deployment schedule

This smells of Amazon trying to put the blame on the launchers and really surprising that they tried to lump Atlas in there, assuming that is not a typo on AndrewM's part since Atlas V was flying and available waiting for Amazon to get enough satellites built to fly in 2024. The only real delays with Atlas have been minor technical, weather, and range availability ones, which are typical for any rocket.

Had there been enough satellites, all eight Atlas earmarked for Kuiper/Leo could have been flown off by now and they would have nearly 300 satellites in orbit.

The Atlas V note was not a typo. NROL-107 (SILENTBARKER) had a fairing issue and then the Vulcan SRB issue impacted Atlas V as well due to them both using GEM 63. Had to ensure the issue impacting GEM 63XL didn't impact the regular GEM 63s.

For example, ULA’s Atlas V experienced unexpected anomalies and delays caused by issues with its vehicle fairings and solid rocket boosters.  The Atlas V delays were particularly unexpected, given that Atlas rockets had a 100% success rate through years of successful missions—a heritage of reliability that drove Amazon Leo’s decision to buy all nine of the remaining commercially available Atlas V launch vehicles.  After overcoming these technical issues, efforts to reschedule
faced additional delays due to weather and range issues—ultimately pushing the planned 2024 launch of Amazon Leo’s initial production satellites into April 2025.

This mission is also likely to delay again after today's USSF-87 SRB anomaly.

[TrevorMonty]

Bet Tory is happy he is no longer in charge and doesn't have sortout fallout from this SRB failure. May not be ULA's fault but they still need to appease their customers.