ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion

[deltaV]

FST edit: thread for discussion of the ULA launch manifest

https://spacenews.com/bruno-trumpets-transformation-of-ula-after-vulcan-launch/

Mr. Bruno was quoted in that article saying:

When Atlas flies out in about a year, [Vulcan] will be the only high-energy rocket left in the world
...
We run about 34% cheaper on a high-energy mission than the other one, SpaceX, does
...
We put all our bets nine years ago in the right places.

1. What did he mean by "when Atlas flies out in about a year"? Starliner commercial crew missions to ISS will keep Atlas active for another 5 years or so. I guess he misspoke but I'm surprised he would misremember when one of his major products will be discontinued.

2. It's not true that Vulcan will be the only high-energy rocket. Launchers that can do high energy missions (TLI or beyond) include Falcon Heavy, SLS, LVM 3, PSLV-XL, Proton-M, Electron with Photon, Ariane 6, H3, KSLV-III, several Long March variants, Soyuz-5 (Irtysh), Starship with propellant transfer, New Glenn with Cislunar Transporter, and any orbital rocket with an appropriate kick stage (e.g. Helios). Vulcan is not even the only rocket that's optimized for high energy since IIRC SLS is optimized for TLI and Starship is probably optimized for Mars (with propellant transfer).

3. Mr. Bruno's claim that ULA made the right bets seems wrong because LEO-optimized reusable vehicles will likely drive Vulcan out of business.

[DanClemmensen]

1. What did he [Tory Bruno] mean by "when Atlas flies out in about a year"? Starliner commercial crew missions to ISS will keep Atlas active for another 5 years or so. I guess he misspoke but I'm surprised he would misremember when one of his major products will be discontinued.

That's a puzzler. Does Tory know something about Starliner that has not yet been disclosed? Boeing/NASA agreeing to terminate it? Starliner to be certified on Vulcan? Starliner to be certified on some other launcher?

Or maybe, he just has the Starliner flights mentally classified as a completely separate business that's no longer relevant to ULA's real business.

[Jim]

That's a puzzler. Does Tory know something about Starliner that has not yet been disclosed? Boeing/NASA agreeing to terminate it? Starliner to be certified on Vulcan? Starliner to be certified on some other launcher?

Or maybe, he just has the Starliner flights mentally classified as a completely separate business that's no longer relevant to ULA's real business.

jeesh, reading too much into things

[meekGee]

That's a puzzler. Does Tory know something about Starliner that has not yet been disclosed? Boeing/NASA agreeing to terminate it? Starliner to be certified on Vulcan? Starliner to be certified on some other launcher?

Or maybe, he just has the Starliner flights mentally classified as a completely separate business that's no longer relevant to ULA's real business.

jeesh, reading too much into things

Ok, but what did he mean?  The context makes it pretty unambiguous.

"When Atlas flies out in about a year, [Vulcan] will be the only high-energy rocket left in the world"

Hmmm.

[anof]

That's a puzzler. Does Tory know something about Starliner that has not yet been disclosed? Boeing/NASA agreeing to terminate it? Starliner to be certified on Vulcan? Starliner to be certified on some other launcher?

Or maybe, he just has the Starliner flights mentally classified as a completely separate business that's no longer relevant to ULA's real business.

jeesh, reading too much into things

Ok, but what did he mean?  The context makes it pretty unambiguous.

"When Atlas flies out in about a year, [Vulcan] will be the only high-energy rocket left in the world"

Hmmm.

Maybe he means the last high energy Atlas flights are this year. Starliner and Kuiper are to LEO.

[meekGee]

That's a puzzler. Does Tory know something about Starliner that has not yet been disclosed? Boeing/NASA agreeing to terminate it? Starliner to be certified on Vulcan? Starliner to be certified on some other launcher?

Or maybe, he just has the Starliner flights mentally classified as a completely separate business that's no longer relevant to ULA's real business.

jeesh, reading too much into things

Ok, but what did he mean?  The context makes it pretty unambiguous.

"When Atlas flies out in about a year, [Vulcan] will be the only high-energy rocket left in the world"

Hmmm.

Maybe he means the last high energy Atlas flights are this year. Starliner and Kuiper are to LEO.

With a lot of acrobatics, maybe.  So if the mission is LEO, so is the rocket?  And if so, what about high energy Falcon missions?

Then he goes on to mention "the other one, space", so is Vulcan the only one in the world or just supposedly cheaper?

Still though, yeah, you're probably right.

[DanClemmensen]

That's a puzzler. Does Tory know something about Starliner that has not yet been disclosed? Boeing/NASA agreeing to terminate it? Starliner to be certified on Vulcan? Starliner to be certified on some other launcher?

Or maybe, he just has the Starliner flights mentally classified as a completely separate business that's no longer relevant to ULA's real business.

jeesh, reading too much into things

Ok, but what did he mean?  The context makes it pretty unambiguous.

"When Atlas flies out in about a year, [Vulcan] will be the only high-energy rocket left in the world"

Hmmm.

Maybe he means the last high energy Atlas flights are this year. Starliner and Kuiper are to LEO.

OK, this sort of makes sense. All remaining Atlas Vs are either N22 (7 Starliners) or 551 (8 Kuipers + two other). 551 is or can be "high energy", and all of them could fly before "about a year". I guess he may be categorizing N22 as not "high energy".

[skater]

*yeet tweet*

Thought you guys might find this architectural evolution of the #VulcanRocket fun...

Can we lobby to have flames painted on a fairing at some point? That would be insanely awesome!

Needs more airbrush!

Did Dennis Dubose retire?

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1775634699139907869

Joey Roulette
@joroulette
Good story - I also heard ULA asked Space Force for a single-mission Vulcan certification (waiving the need for the second cert mission) amid Dream Chaser delays, and Space Force considered it but ultimately decided not to allow it. ULA faces choice to wait or change the payload

[ZachF]

ULA should just bite the bullet and launch a mass sim for VC002.

NET September from April is still a significant probability of not being ready until 2025.

In the meantime, the inflation/interest rate adjusted value of the billions in launch contracts that are waiting is declining, and they could have payloads shifted to SX.

[PahTo]

An interesting take, but what config to do the sim launch?  The DC vehicle really provides a great opportunity to cover many of the vehicle configs (4 srm and large plf after launching 2 srm, standard plf variant) and trajectory (51.6 incline).  Would SF consider a "stripped down" no srm standard plf with short-fill Centaur as a second launch?

ULA should just bite the bullet and launch a mass sim for VC002.

NET September from April is still a significant probability of not being ready until 2025.

In the meantime, the inflation/interest rate adjusted value of the billions in launch contracts that are waiting is declining, and they could have payloads shifted to SX.

[deltaV]

I also heard ULA asked Space Force for a single-mission Vulcan certification (waiving the need for the second cert mission) amid Dream Chaser delays

If Kuiper satellites were ready Kuiper satellites would seem to be a great payload for a second cert mission since mass production should make them less painful to lose than most payloads are. I guess we can deduce that Kuiper satellites probably aren't ready yet.

[deltaV]

Joey Roulette
@joroulette
Good story - I also heard ULA asked Space Force for a single-mission Vulcan certification (waiving the need for the second cert mission) amid Dream Chaser delays, and Space Force considered it but ultimately decided not to allow it.

Are there any national security payloads that ULA is scheduled to launch soon that wouldn't be catastrophic if lost? For example maybe losing the GPS satellite that's scheduled to launch in ~Q4 on Vulcan would be OK since there are lots of spare GPS satellites? If so maybe the Space Force should tell ULA that they can launch that payload before Vulcan is fully certified if ULA pays to insure the payload against launch vehicle problems. This could help solve ULA's problem while still protecting the government's interests.

(This post isn't a great fit for this thread but I'm not sure what thread would be better.)

[catdlr]

In a statement this evening from Col. James T. Horne of Space Systems Command, the Space Force confirms it will require two certification flights of Vulcan. Given the concerns about Dream Chaser outlined in the original story, it will be interesting to see what flies on Cert-2.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1776069257576497327

[Robert_the_Doll]

https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1776293107278975007

Have not asked for our cert plan to be amended from 2 flights to 1. No intention of doing so. CERT 2 Vulcan has additional instrumentation and objectives of its own. Looking forward to flying it when the payload is available. We have informed the Space Force that CERT1 was completely successful & we are comfortable reflying that configuration at any time, should the need arise. Perhaps that is the source of this confusion?

[mn]

https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1776293107278975007

Have not asked for our cert plan to be amended from 2 flights to 1. No intention of doing so. CERT 2 Vulcan has additional instrumentation and objectives of its own. Looking forward to flying it when the payload is available. We have informed the Space Force that CERT1 was completely successful & we are comfortable reflying that configuration at any time, should the need arise. Perhaps that is the source of this confusion?

@Mr Tory. Thanks for confirming the rumor. Nice try to make it sound different...

[zubenelgenubi]

Here's where the Cert-2 Vulcan stood in early February.  Is there more recent news?

@torybruno
how far along is the cert-2 Vulcan booster? And when do you expect it to be ready to be shipped to the cape?

Built up. First of two BE4s in Decatur and prep’ing for installation. [Feb 7]

[spacebleachers]

Here's where the Cert-2 Vulcan stood in early February.  Is there more recent news?

@torybruno
how far along is the cert-2 Vulcan booster? And when do you expect it to be ready to be shipped to the cape?

Built up. First of two BE4s in Decatur and prep’ing for installation. [Feb 7]

That’s the rub, we haven’t and we should have seen a picture of the second engine arrival, or have one with both installed by now. At least some status update.

Eric Burger’s article pointed out BE-4 issues. At first, I thought it was just historical info being provided by Tory; however, a lack of updates on this from ULA or Tory might indicate the second BE-4, or some other BE-4 that was tested may have caused one or both of the BE-4s to be updated for testing to continue.

If this is the case, then it might explain why ULA isn’t working to replace the payload for Cert-2.

[LouScheffer]

Built up. First of two BE4s in Decatur and prep’ing for installation. [Feb 7]

That’s the rub, we haven’t and we should have seen a picture of the second engine arrival, or have one with both installed by now. At least some status update.

Eric Burger’s article pointed out BE-4 issues. At first, I thought it was just historical info being provided by Tory; however, a lack of updates on this from ULA or Tory might indicate the second BE-4, or some other BE-4 that was tested may have caused one or both of the BE-4s to be updated for testing to continue.

If this is the case, then it might explain why ULA isn’t working to replace the payload for Cert-2.

Agree with this guess.  What are the reasons Vulcan does not launch a test mass, or some payload from their backlog that does not need certification?
   - Need to complete technical changes from review of flight 1 data.  Tory said this was not the case.
   - It's too expensive.  But waiting to attack the backlog is even more expensive.  Plus, if as suspected, the ink is almost dry on the BO purchase, they could likely work around this.
   - No payload is ready.  But they could use a test mass, or mass produced satellites, or a Tesla, or something.

So therefore I suspect they can't yet launch, and are using the payload delay as cover.  This strategy is as old as rocketry.

[Jim]

   - No payload is ready.  They don't want to  use a test mass, or mass produced satellites, or a Tesla, or something and prefer to wait.

This is the answer

Lou's words edited