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If Isaacman has to take action in 2026-2027, and seeing we're currently in early Jan of 2026, by definition it's not too late.

The problem is that Isaacman doesn’t _have_ to do anything with respect to transitioning Artemis off Orion/SLS.  He ignored the FY26 PBR regarding commercial lunar/Mars without repercussion.  (It was more important that Isaacman contribute to the President’s PAC.)  There’s nothing in statute (reconciliation) or final bill language (minibus) that requires such a transition.  Isaacman instead endorsed legislation that extended Orion/SLS thru 2030+, twice.  On the day Isaacman was inaugurated, the President released his latest EO on space, which set a lunar landing goal of 2028, not a commercial transition goal.  Since the FY26 PBR, every signal from Isaacman and Trump II is that they have decided not to effectuate or initiate a transition off Orion/SLS during the remainder of their term.  It’s up to the next WH and NASA Administrator.

That could change.  But change takes time.  And they don’t have much before they become lame ducks.  It may very quickly become too late to start that transition before Isaacman and Trump II no longer have the influence to do so.

My original point was that Isaacman definitely can’t wait to initiate a transition off Orion/SLS until Artemis V (2030+) or Artemis III (2028+) because he’ll either be out of office or shortly on his way out.  But waiting until after those milestones seems to be the plan, which implies he’s kicking the can to the next NASA Administrator.

So you're betting on Isaacman will do nothing wrt starting commercial alternatives to SLS/Orion, like I said, let's just wait and see what happens.


some people just don't learn that really don't know what is going on.
Congress will determine whether NASA does anything wrt commercial alternatives to SLS/Orion, not Isaacman.

You're the one who doesn't know what's going on:

1. IF SpaceX proposed to do Artemis III with all SpaceX hardware in their faster HLS proposal, that _is_ a commercial alternative to SLS/Orion, and it's up to Isaacman to approve it based on existing Congressional language in the FY26 appropriation reports which I outlined here and fund it using the existing HLS funding which Congress generously increased beyond PBR.

2. Alternatively Isaacman can also start the Commercial Moon and Mars Infrastructure and Transportation program in the PBR. Congress didn't explicitly fund this, but didn't forbid it either, and there is a wedge in the exploration funding - although more limited than originally requested - for it.
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https://www.cadenaois.org/vpublic_anspdetail.jsp?view=15
Quote
Primary Launch Day 17 JAN 0418Z-0536Z
Backup Launch Day 18 JAN 0404Z-0522Z
Backup Launch Day 19 JAN 0350Z-0508Z
Backup Launch Day 20 JAN 0337Z-0455Z
Backup Launch Day 21 JAN 0323Z-0441Z
Backup Launch Day 22 JAN 0309Z-0427Z
Backup Launch Day 23 JAN 0255Z-0413Z

Quote
SpaceX is targeting Friday, January 16 for a Falcon 9 launch of the NROL-105 mission from Space Launch Complex 4E (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The 35-minute launch window opens at 8:18 p.m. PT with a backup opportunity available at 8:04 p.m. PT on Saturday, January 17.

A live webcast of the NROL-105 mission will begin about 10 minutes prior to liftoff, which you can watch here and on X @SpaceX. You can also watch the webcast on the X TV app.

This is the second flight for the first stage booster supporting this mission, which previously launched one Starlink mission. Following stage separation, the first stage will land on Landing Zone 4 (LZ-4) at Vandenberg Space Force Base.

There is the possibility that residents of Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties may hear one or more sonic booms during the launch, but what residents experience will depend on weather and other conditions.
17 January 04:18 to 04:53 UTC = 16 January 8:18 to 8:53 pm PST
B1100-2
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That just doesn’t appear to be Isaacman’s plan anymore.  Even if we disregard his endorsement under sworn testimony of Orion/SLS thru Artemis V (2030+), what he also more or less stated is that there is an opportunity for a transition once Starship and Blue Moon 2 have successfully landed astronauts, because in his mind that basically demos lunar crew transport systems.  (I disagree with that statement, but that’s beside the point.)  That’s still out in 2028+ for Starship and 2030+ for Blue Moon 2 which, again, is well after Isaacman is out of power or a lame duck.  Either he doesn’t realize that or doesn’t care.

Personally I think Isaacman made a fairly simple political calculation. He has little support from the WH, so he needs allies in congress to survive. That means kowtowing to the SLS caucus.

What I suspect happened was, the Hill said to the WH that they wouldn't approve anyone other than Issacman for administrator. That's the only reason he got in. All congress needs to do is imply they'd confirm anyone else, and the knives will come out.

So Issacman's options are to either allow Artemis to continue as planned, or quickly not be NASA administrator anymore. Given the horrific damage Vought was wrecking on NASA science, I'm guessing Issacman sees it as the lesser of two evils.


Yes, the Sun’s red giant phase and the heat death of the universe will eventually end Orion/SLS.  But I think there’s a scenario where NASA/Artemis is stuck with Orion/SLS for decades to come while the rest of the space sector is riding Starships, New Glenn, and whatever reusable launcher wins in China.  Government programs that are irrational from an economic or performance standpoint continue for seemingly ever because they satisfy political realities.  Outside the Northeast Corridor, Amtrak makes no economic sense in an age of jet aircraft and interstate highways.  But Congress continues to subsidize it because those trains stop in certain states and communities.  Sometimes the WH or Congress make a half-hearted attempt at reform, but it never goes anywhere for the same reason.  We may be in the early stages of such a parochial political survivor with Orion/SLS. 

I don't think things will quite work out that way. Amtrak survives because it offers a "service" no commercial company will ever match... because that service is economically unviable. Providing transit to people in those communities is always going to involve some transfer of wealth. That just happens to be the way the US has chosen to make that happen, because it's easier in the American system to have a service that defacto does this (wealthy NYC commuters subsidizing rural train passengers) but doesn't openly say so, rather than a more economically efficient system that's honest about what it's doing.

On the other hand superheavy rockets do appear to be a viable commercial enterprise, and private companies are competing in that space. That's a fundamentally different situation.

Basically, Amtrack only gets by because no one wants to compete with it. That's not true for SLS.
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Weather: Summary only for now, details tomorrow.

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Here is a consolidated post of available video links for this launch:

SpaceX's direct live broadcast on
Website:  https://www.spacex.com/launches/nrol105
 Twitter:  https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1mnGeNlVAkZJX

SpaceX Re-broadcast alternatives on YouTube: 
Space Affairs:  https://youtube.com/watch?v=n49NOGyJlNQ

There is no planned NSF Live coverage. Alternate Pre-Launch Coverage:  https://www.youtube.com/@SpaceflightNowVideo/streams

Replay supplied by The Space Devs (15 min after the broadcast end):  https://youtube.com/@thespacedevs/videos

Summary Video provided by SciNews (15 min after the broadcast ends):  https://youtube.com/@SciNewsRo/videos

Fleet Booster Number:  https://twitter.com/BoosterSpX
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Rocket Lab / Re: Neutron vs F9R and SS etc
« Last post by sstli2 on Today at 02:06 am »
Not sure this is the best thread for this, but it's an interesting observation that has ramifications well beyond Falcon launch cadence: https://x.com/JackKuhr/status/2011118633007604140

Quote
Falcon's non-Starlink launch plateau (commercial, gov, rideshare, Dragon) is an important story.

Gov demand is up. But dedicated commercial flights have flatlined:
- '22: 11
- '23: 14
- '24: 18
- '25: 13

Startups rely heavily on rideshare but few reach dedicated launch scale.

This is probably the most appropriate thread for this.
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Quote
SpaceX is targeting Friday, January 16 for a Falcon 9 launch of the NROL-105 mission from Space Launch Complex 4E (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The 35-minute launch window opens at 8:18 p.m. PT with a backup opportunity available at 8:04 p.m. PT on Saturday, January 17.

A live webcast of the NROL-105 mission will begin about 10 minutes prior to liftoff, which you can watch here and on X @SpaceX. You can also watch the webcast on the X TV app.

This is the second flight for the first stage booster supporting this mission, which previously launched one Starlink mission. Following stage separation, the first stage will land on Landing Zone 4 (LZ-4) at Vandenberg Space Force Base.

There is the possibility that residents of Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties may hear one or more sonic booms during the launch, but what residents experience will depend on weather and other conditions.
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Not sure this is the best thread for this, but it's an interesting observation that has ramifications well beyond Falcon launch cadence: https://x.com/JackKuhr/status/2011118633007604140

Quote
Falcon's non-Starlink launch plateau (commercial, gov, rideshare, Dragon) is an important story.

Gov demand is up. But dedicated commercial flights have flatlined:
- '22: 11
- '23: 14
- '24: 18
- '25: 13

Startups rely heavily on rideshare but few reach dedicated launch scale.
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https://twitter.com/NASAAdmin/status/2011984949654495679

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NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman

@NASAAdmin
·

From the Saturn era to today, @NASAStennis has been central to propulsion testing that makes our boldest missions possible. As we prepare to send astronauts back to the Moon, that work continues - testing engines, validating performance, and doing the hard, methodical work that flight depends on. That includes a growing slate of commercial engines being proven here on the test stands, a key part of developing America’s orbital economy.

But the clearest signal of why Stennis matters is the workforce. The people here bring discipline, judgment, and a real sense of responsibility to work that has no shortcuts, and they’re focused on what comes next. The center has been deliberate about preparing for the future, building partnerships, and positioning itself to support emerging capabilities that will define the next era.
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Blue Origin / Re: Blue Origin General Discussion - Thread 7
« Last post by sstli2 on Today at 01:53 am »
SAM.gov: Missile Defense Agency (MDA) SHIELD Multiple Award IDIQ Contract

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Notice of Awards - January 15, 2026

Following the initial tranche of 1,014 awards announced December 2, 2025 and the second tranche of 1,086 awards announced December 18, 2025, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has made an additional 340 awards under the Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) Multiple Award Indefinite-Delivery, Indefinite-Quantity (IDIQ) Contract.  A list of awardees is attached along with their respective contract number.

Quote
Offeror NameContract Numbers
BLUE ORIGIN LLC   HQ085926DG443

I don't get it. There's zero transparency as far what is being contracted. Why do there need to be so many awardees? This whole thing just seems like a big grift where everyone in the military-industrial complex is beckoning for a piece of the pie, and the DoD is all too willing to oblige.
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