First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?

[Vahe231991]

It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.

Starship might not actually replace the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy because it is primarily intended to take people to the Moon and Mars, and the Falcon Heavy recently had two launches within three months after a three-year hiatus, meaning that the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will still be around even if Starship gets off the ground.

[DanClemmensen]

It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.

Starship might not actually replace the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy because it is primarily intended to take people to the Moon and Mars, and the Falcon Heavy recently had two launches within three months after a three-year hiatus, meaning that the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will still be around even if Starship gets off the ground.

Off-topic for this thread, but...
If Starship succeeds, then it will be cheaper to launch than F9 or FH. That's the per-launch cost, not the $/kg cost. Thus, every F9 or FH that can be replaced by a Starship launch will increase SpaceX's profit, other things equal. This leaves only launches where F9 or FH are required for non-economic reasons. This includes Dragons, NSSL, and possibly some CLPS and Gateway resupply.

How does this affect the NG vs. Starship launch dates? Only to the extent that it motivates SpaceX to not only launch, but also get Starship fully operational.

[Alvian@IDN]

It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.

Starship might not actually replace the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy because it is primarily intended to take people to the Moon and Mars, and the Falcon Heavy recently had two launches within three months after a three-year hiatus, meaning that the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will still be around even if Starship gets off the ground.

Starship & Falcon operating side-by-side ≠ Falcon being operated indefinitely

[Alvian@IDN]

New Glenn's 7 BE-4 static fire (attempt) on SLC-36A orbital launch mount would be exciting for sure, but when?
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1623812763415093249?t=9Z9yRNtjPQWWWZJeqyjKEg&s=19

[Vahe231991]

New Glenn's 7 BE-4 static fire (attempt) on SLC-36A orbital launch mount would be exciting for sure, but when?
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1623812763415093249?t=9Z9yRNtjPQWWWZJeqyjKEg&s=19

As long as Blue Origin is tightlipped about progress being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn and satellite images continued to be relied on for the latest progress regarding construction of the first New Glenn, odds of Starship reaching orbit before the New Glenn still remain high, notwithstanding FAA giving SpaceX the go ahead for the first launch of the Starship.

[Tywin]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

[trimeta]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

[Tywin]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes

[trimeta]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes

Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.

[Tywin]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes

Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.

My perspective is that the time between the first flight of the New Glenn and its second launch will be much shorter than between the first flight of the Starship and its second...


Also, not only do I think there will be NO second Starship flight this year, but its launch in 2024 will be quite late....

[Alvian@IDN]

Based on?

[kevinof]

Based on?

It’s not based on any evidence, inside knowledge or anything of any substance. Zero. It’s basically content free - It’s just his opinion and well we all know about opinions.

Might be just as well to park this thread and come back to it in a year or two because it’s just a waste of bandwidth.

[Greg Hullender]

Does "reach orbit" mean "makes it more than half-way around?" or does it mean "enters an orbit with perigee above the Karmen line?" Or something else?

Half-way is a magic number for suborbital flights (with no air friction and single impulse, if you make it half-way, you'll make it all the way around), so I like to think of anything beyond that as orbital, not suborbital, hence Starship's planned first launch is "orbital" the way I'd like to define it. But I'm I the only one thinking that way?

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

[trimeta]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

[meekGee]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes

Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.

My perspective is that the time between the first flight of the New Glenn and its second launch will be much shorter than between the first flight of the Starship and its second...


Also, not only do I think there will be NO second Starship flight this year, but its launch in 2024 will be quite late....

That might happen if they blow up the pad, but that's true of any company, BO included.

[Tywin]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

No, bending the reality of what has always been considered orbit is the specialty of certain amazing peoples....

[trimeta]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

No, bending the reality of what has always been considered orbit is the specialty of certain amazing peoples....

While bending the reality of what has always been considered "experience with building orbital-class vehicles" remains your specialty.

[AllenB]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

No, bending the reality of what has always been considered orbit is the specialty of certain amazing peoples....

Putting SpaceX entirely aside for the moment (which is admittedly difficult given the day) you've put your faith in... Blue Origin? Once upon a time, they looked like a promising start. Then a couple of decades passed and they've gotten as far as sending some people up high in the sky.

You can choose to believe that all of their silence and secrecy conceals great things, but given their record thus far, a conservative approach seems warranted.

[intrepidpursuit]

This one is obvious. If New Glenn ever launches it will be so different from the original concept it might not even keep the name. I'm rooting for them, but with SpaceX being younger than Blue, Blue so far behind they may never catch up.

[Vahe231991]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes

Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.

My perspective is that the time between the first flight of the New Glenn and its second launch will be much shorter than between the first flight of the Starship and its second...


Also, not only do I think there will be NO second Starship flight this year, but its launch in 2024 will be quite late....

Elon Musk had this to say on Twitter regarding a second Starship launch:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1649050306943266819

Since Musk now says that SpaceX will conduct another Starship launch in a few months, it'd be interesting to see if any time gap between the first and second New Glenn launches will be longer or shorter than the timing of a second Starship launch.