It is very surprising to see so much talk about the impending termination of Artemis
What am I missing?
So there are no manned Artemis flights to the moon in 2026 and 2027 which is a long gap ( and stupid if you ask me).
Would an US administration in 2028 or 2032 really decide to cancel it?
Seems extremely dubious and a very premature discussion to have.
[SLS cancellation is] a half decade or more away. But to avoid that fate, NASA has to pursue alternatives to Orion/SLS now (as in yesterday). If NASA waits until 2028 or 2032, it will be too late. By that point, no one is likely to put up with another half-decade or decade of Artemis while Orion/SLS is phased out.
Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 03/30/2022 04:43 amOne other thing that's lurking in the requirement for either Appendix P or Option B to dock at the Gateway: Option A LSS must be a passive IDSS implementation, because Orion is active only. Presumably, Gateway will also be passive only, so the docking ring has to be active. So LSS has to change its docking architecture to implement Option B.The obvious thing for LSS to do is to implement the IDSS active-active option (which, AIUI, is really an active soft-capture ring that's latched in the retracted position and has three additional passive capture latches on it), but so far there aren't any active-active implementations with any flight heritage. Presumably, the Option B/App. P uncrewed test flight would provide a live test for this, but does anybody know how much ground testing and certification hassle is required for such a docking system?As I understand it, the Option A HLS must implement both the active mode and the passive mode, because it must be able to dock with the Gateway if it is available and it must be able to dock with Orion if Gateway is not available. NASA had already announced that Gateway was optional some time ago.
One other thing that's lurking in the requirement for either Appendix P or Option B to dock at the Gateway: Option A LSS must be a passive IDSS implementation, because Orion is active only. Presumably, Gateway will also be passive only, so the docking ring has to be active. So LSS has to change its docking architecture to implement Option B.The obvious thing for LSS to do is to implement the IDSS active-active option (which, AIUI, is really an active soft-capture ring that's latched in the retracted position and has three additional passive capture latches on it), but so far there aren't any active-active implementations with any flight heritage. Presumably, the Option B/App. P uncrewed test flight would provide a live test for this, but does anybody know how much ground testing and certification hassle is required for such a docking system?
No, according to the IG, it is SpaceX that has the option to dock with Gateway or not (i.e., it is not NASA that has the option). The chances that Orion and HLS-Starship will dock with Gateway for Artemis III are very slim.
Quote from: yg1968 on 03/30/2022 02:11 pmNo, according to the IG, it is SpaceX that has the option to dock with Gateway or not (i.e., it is not NASA that has the option). The chances that Orion and HLS-Starship will dock with Gateway for Artemis III are very slim.But Option B/App. P implementations must be capable of RPODs with Gateway, correct?
Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 03/30/2022 02:20 pmQuote from: yg1968 on 03/30/2022 02:11 pmNo, according to the IG, it is SpaceX that has the option to dock with Gateway or not (i.e., it is not NASA that has the option). The chances that Orion and HLS-Starship will dock with Gateway for Artemis III are very slim.But Option B/App. P implementations must be capable of RPODs with Gateway, correct?Yes.
So there are no manned Artemis flights to the moon in 2026 and 2027 which is a long gap ( and stupid if you ask me). SpaceX will already have done a crewed landing of the HLS so what’s to stop them from running their own flights to the surface during this time?Assuming they can get to/from the moon from LEO , they will have a lander already tested. Might piss off NASA and some politicians but might be good for further testing Starship in deep space.
Quote from: libra on 03/30/2022 10:08 amQuote from: kevinof on 03/30/2022 08:37 amSo there are no manned Artemis flights to the moon in 2026 and 2027 which is a long gap ( and stupid if you ask me). SpaceX will already have done a crewed landing of the HLS so what’s to stop them from running their own flights to the surface during this time?Assuming they can get to/from the moon from LEO , they will have a lander already tested. Might piss off NASA and some politicians but might be good for further testing Starship in deep space.Such absurd situation... two different Starships to the same place (!)- one for NASA, rammed into an expensive SLS Orion architecture, because Congress - one SpaceX out of their main Mars effort, fully reusable. The only hope is for sanity to prevail and the latter screws the former.It is absurd but then this is usually the case when it comes to congress funded space programs. I don’t expect sanity to suddenly kick in and plans to change.I had just hoped then when the U.S. decided to go back to the moon and stay, it really meant “stay”. This Artemis program is nothing close to staying - more of a yearly (if even) short visit and scoot off again and all at a very high cost.Maybe SpaceX can run a couple of tourist flights to the surface during these years!
Quote from: kevinof on 03/30/2022 08:37 amSo there are no manned Artemis flights to the moon in 2026 and 2027 which is a long gap ( and stupid if you ask me). SpaceX will already have done a crewed landing of the HLS so what’s to stop them from running their own flights to the surface during this time?Assuming they can get to/from the moon from LEO , they will have a lander already tested. Might piss off NASA and some politicians but might be good for further testing Starship in deep space.Such absurd situation... two different Starships to the same place (!)- one for NASA, rammed into an expensive SLS Orion architecture, because Congress - one SpaceX out of their main Mars effort, fully reusable. The only hope is for sanity to prevail and the latter screws the former.
Sure. Despite inheriting Kennedy’s legacy, the Johnson Administration turned off the Apollo production lines while the program was landing on the Moon. Despite being a different political party, the Nixon Administration agreed and turned off Apollo operations and landings before all the hardware was used.Artemis is unlikely to deliver even half of what Apollo did. It could easily happen again.
Quote from: yg1968 on 03/30/2022 02:22 pmQuote from: TheRadicalModerate on 03/30/2022 02:20 pmQuote from: yg1968 on 03/30/2022 02:11 pmNo, according to the IG, it is SpaceX that has the option to dock with Gateway or not (i.e., it is not NASA that has the option). The chances that Orion and HLS-Starship will dock with Gateway for Artemis III are very slim.But Option B/App. P implementations must be capable of RPODs with Gateway, correct?Yes.Seems to me the design specifications of Gateway may make that difficult. NASA seemed to set the maximum mass for a lander docked to Gateway to be higher than Starship, higher than ISS which had ability to dock Shuttle which was similar in mass. But that was a while ago. They didn’t expect such a huge lander at the time. I hope they have considered expanding that capability given that they awarded a huge lander the first contract.
Warning: much speculation here.Not only will they have a tested design, they may also have one or two actual Starship HLS Option A already in space and ready to be reused. the incremental cost to return the Starship HLS from NRHO to depot EO is (guesstimate) three tanker flights. Moving HLS from EO back to an LEO orbit and then back to depot EO is at most one tanker flight. Then you need maybe four tankers flights for the depot EO-lunar surface-NRHO segment.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 03/30/2022 02:51 pmWarning: much speculation here.Not only will they have a tested design, they may also have one or two actual Starship HLS Option A already in space and ready to be reused. the incremental cost to return the Starship HLS from NRHO to depot EO is (guesstimate) three tanker flights. Moving HLS from EO back to an LEO orbit and then back to depot EO is at most one tanker flight. Then you need maybe four tankers flights for the depot EO-lunar surface-NRHO segment.I'm not sure I understand your conops correctly. E.g. what orbit is the "depot Earth Orbit", and why is it a different orbit from LEO? And I don't understand how you have arrived at your guesstimates for the number of tanker flights (by which I assume you mean tanker launches).But if this involves getting the tanks filled in LEO, and then going from LEO to the surface of the Moon and back to LEO without any further refillings inbetween, then your guesstimates are way off.
It is very surprising to see so much talk about the impending termination of Artemis, I really don't understand.....From an outside space fan perspective this looks like the healthiest human exploration program since the ISS. What am I missing?It certainly seems likely that Orion and Gateway and Starship will actually fly and any decisions regarding the continuation of the program will happen in an environment where the US has regained the capability to land crew on the Moon. Would an US administration in 2028 or 2032 really decide to cancel it? Seems extremely dubious and a very premature discussion to have.
I am very, very disappointed in HLS Option B. All it does is maintain the least effective, most costly and economically unviable system possible. In my opinion, HLS Option B falls totally flat on it's face and should be scrapped completely. It does nothing at all to create a standard and dependable transportation system to and from the moon, which, if we think about it, it what we all really want. Except, of course, the folks in Congress who don't care about space but like the cash cow that NASA has become for tax money distribution to their own voting districts.
Quote from: VSECOTSPE on 03/29/2022 08:49 pm...That’s pushing 2028-2030. That’s into the next Administration, which may be too late to help Artemis.... Any of those singly or in combination would push a service start well into the early or mid-2030s. I think that definitely risks being too late to help Artemis.Although I’d love to be surprised, the reality is that none of this is going to get started while Nelson sits in the Administrator’s chair, which pushes it too far into the future to help Artemis at all. And even if Nelson had to retire tomorrow, I don’t see this Administration grappling with this given everything else they’re juggling, which again pushes this too far into the future to help Artemis at all. So that’s why I advise terminating Artemis sooner (although I obviously do not expect that to happen) than later.It is very surprising to see so much talk about the impending termination of Artemis, I really don't understand.None of the Artemis program hardware has flown, many new contracts are being announced and we are seeing active and successful political pressure to spend more money on it (for the second lander). From an outside space fan perspective this looks like the healthiest human exploration program since the ISS. What am I missing?It certainly seems likely that Orion and Gateway and Starship will actually fly and any decisions regarding the continuation of the program will happen in an environment where the US has regained the capability to land crew on the Moon. Would an US administration in 2028 or 2032 really decide to cancel it? Seems extremely dubious and a very premature discussion to have.
...That’s pushing 2028-2030. That’s into the next Administration, which may be too late to help Artemis.... Any of those singly or in combination would push a service start well into the early or mid-2030s. I think that definitely risks being too late to help Artemis.Although I’d love to be surprised, the reality is that none of this is going to get started while Nelson sits in the Administrator’s chair, which pushes it too far into the future to help Artemis at all. And even if Nelson had to retire tomorrow, I don’t see this Administration grappling with this given everything else they’re juggling, which again pushes this too far into the future to help Artemis at all. So that’s why I advise terminating Artemis sooner (although I obviously do not expect that to happen) than later.
Quote from: clongton on 03/30/2022 07:16 pmI am very, very disappointed in HLS Option B. All it does is maintain the least effective, most costly and economically unviable system possible. In my opinion, HLS Option B falls totally flat on it's face and should be scrapped completely. It does nothing at all to create a standard and dependable transportation system to and from the moon, which, if we think about it, it what we all really want. Except, of course, the folks in Congress who don't care about space but like the cash cow that NASA has become for tax money distribution to their own voting districts. 1. I am guessing that you mean that you are disappointed with Option B and Appendix P. Option B is another HLS-Starship mission with minor upgrades since HLS-Starship likely already meets most of the requirements for a sustainable lander. Appendix P is the second sustainable lander program. 2. If you think that SLS and Orion should be replaced with a commercial crew to BLEO program, fine but that is a separate issue from HLS.
Depot is in an earth orbit (EO). As another poster pointed out, neither NASA nor SpaceX has actually specified this orbit, hence "depot EO".
CONOPS: After the first Starship HLS mission, HLS is in NRHO, so the "reusable" mission analysis starts there. -- send retrieval fuel to the depot in EO using three tankers. Two tankers add fuel to depot and return to Earth. The third tanker fills all the way up and transits to NRHO. -- tanker transfers fuel to HLS. -- tanker returns to earth and aerobrakes to EDL --HLS transits to Depot in Depot EO. --Yet another tanker flight transfers additional fuel to Depot for the next steps --HLS fuels and transits to an LEO near a station (e.g., ISS) --HLS crew transfers to HLS, probably by a local taxi run by the crew capsule --HLS, with crew, transists back to Depot in Deport EO --HLS refuels at Depot and performs EO--> lunar surface-->NRHO --repeat get crew back to LEO station.Note: at most four tanker flights NOT INCLUDING the tanker flights needed for the "nominal" part of the mission.Note: this assumes EO-->lunar surface-->NRHO needs no more fuel than the Artemis nominal EO-->NRHO-->lunar surface-->NRHO mission.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 03/30/2022 06:35 pmDepot is in an earth orbit (EO). As another poster pointed out, neither NASA nor SpaceX has actually specified this orbit, hence "depot EO".While they might not have specified the exact orbit, it is fairly obvious that it is some kind of LEO. Remember the fourteen tanker launches mentioned in the GAO decision last summer? If it had been in high orbit, it would be more like fourty tankers! (Hint: you want to lift the dry mass of the numerous tankers to as low-energy orbits as possible, so the lower depot orbit, the better (while staying out of the atmosphere).)