Author Topic: HLS Option B and the Sustaining Lunar Development Phase (Appendix P)  (Read 305261 times)

Offline TomH

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....the whacko SpaceX team will need to deliver HLS Option A in time for Artemis III, starting from the ongoing chaotic development base of Starship, which already has test articles sitting around....


What that team really needs is a licence (am I allowed to say that, or is there still danger of being excommunicated) to fly those test articles. This endless delay is absurd.

Offline Athelstane

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....the whacko SpaceX team will need to deliver HLS Option A in time for Artemis III, starting from the ongoing chaotic development base of Starship, which already has test articles sitting around....


What that team really needs is a licence (am I allowed to say that, or is there still danger of being excommunicated) to fly those test articles. This endless delay is absurd.

They're not ready to fly just yet, though.

Pretty clear that static fires have to wait for the shielding to be completed on the Orbital Launch Mount. And they're not going to try to fly until the static fire regime is complete.

Offline Robotbeat

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Um, are you sure that the need to install more shielding to do any additional static fires isn’t just speculation by a certain well-informed (by live video streams) but often over-confident Starbase watcher/commentator?

There’s a possibility of a static fire today: https://twitter.com/BocaChicaGal/status/1571674185159639040?s=20&t=wz2DLoyBIED4thjggiaP0w
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Offline woods170

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Um, are you sure that the need to install more shielding to do any additional static fires isn’t just speculation by a certain well-informed (by live video streams) but often over-confident Starbase watcher/commentator?

There’s a possibility of a static fire today: <snip to prevent repeating tweets ad nauseum>

So were multiple such possibilities in the past week. None of them happened due to continued work to the OLM.
Note: those notices go out based on a schedule issued by SpaceX multiple days in advance. And as we have learned in the past several years, those schedules are always overly optimistic.
« Last Edit: 09/19/2022 01:26 pm by woods170 »

Offline Robotbeat

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Um, are you sure that the need to install more shielding to do any additional static fires isn’t just speculation by a certain well-informed (by live video streams) but often over-confident Starbase watcher/commentator?

There’s a possibility of a static fire today: <snip to prevent repeating tweets ad nauseum>

So were multiple such possibilities in the past week. None of them happened due to continued work to the OLM.
Note: those notices go out based on a schedule issued by SpaceX multiple days in advance. And as we have learned in the past several years, those schedules are always overly optimistic.
The problem with predicting delays is that... ...it's extremely easy to end up right but for the wrong reason, and then people start lauding your insight when it's really just speculation.

SpaceX would cancel the static fire notice if they knew they weren't going to do a test today.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Robotbeat

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....the whacko SpaceX team will need to deliver HLS Option A in time for Artemis III, starting from the ongoing chaotic development base of Starship, which already has test articles sitting around....


What that team really needs is a licence (am I allowed to say that, or is there still danger of being excommunicated) to fly those test articles. This endless delay is absurd.

They're not ready to fly just yet, though.

Pretty clear that static fires have to wait for the shielding to be completed on the Orbital Launch Mount. And they're not going to try to fly until the static fire regime is complete.
”Pretty clear that static fires will have to wait.” This post was written today. And they had a static fire today, the same day, after this post was written

Maybe let’s do some updating of our Bayesian Priors for the reliability of prognostications by certain folk. (In other words, let’s take those prognostications with the same grain of salt they’ve always deserved.)
« Last Edit: 09/19/2022 06:53 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline yg1968

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A Q&A was released yesterday.

One of the questions relates to HDL (HLS-cargo):

Quote from: page 5 of the Q&A#5
23. Q: The HLS-IRD-010 requirement states, "...loaded mass up to 22 metric tons." To clarify, this is additional mass (consumables, logistics, etc.) that may be loaded onto/into the Surface Habitat in a future Cargo mission as the SH remains integrated to HDL?

A: Yes, that is correct

The question relates to this requirement:

Quote from: page 13 of The HLS-IRD-010
[HDL-CP-037] Loaded Mass Accommodation

For Cargo that remains attached to the HDL post landing, the integrated HDL and Cargo shall maintain a stable configuration for a Cargo loaded mass up to 22 metric tons (48501.7 lbm). The HDL is responsible for structurally and mechanically supporting the Cargo + Cargo lander stack for the service life of the Lander. The loaded mass includes any additional mass added to the launched and landed Cargo.

https://sam.gov/opp/f6f52bd9847c46c882ba6b32fcf7367a/view

Incidentally, HDL must be capable of delivering between 12t to 15t of cargo:

Quote from: page 18 of HLS-RQMT-007
HDL-S-R-0030 Cargo Delivery

The HDL shall be capable of delivering 12 metric ton (t) (threshold) and 15 t (goal) of cargo to south lunar latitudes between 84° and 90°. The purpose of the HDL is to enable extended surface stays at Artemis Base Camp (ABC). The HDL will be capable of operating in the varying thermal and solar illumination/shadow environments within the required latitudes.
« Last Edit: 10/20/2022 02:28 am by yg1968 »

Online DanClemmensen

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A Q&A was released yesterday.

One of the questions relates to HDL (HLS-cargo):

Quote from: page 5 of the Q&A#5
23. Q: The HLS-IRD-010 requirement states, "...loaded mass up to 22 metric tons." To clarify, this is additional mass (consumables, logistics, etc.) that may be loaded onto/into the Surface Habitat in a future Cargo mission as the SH remains integrated to HDL?

A: Yes, that is correct

The question relates to this requirement:

Quote from: page 13 of The HLS-IRD-010
[HDL-CP-037] Loaded Mass Accommodation

For Cargo that remains attached to the HDL post landing, the integrated HDL and Cargo shall maintain a stable configuration for a Cargo loaded mass up to 22 metric tons (48501.7 lbm). The HDL is responsible for structurally and mechanically supporting the Cargo + Cargo lander stack for the service life of the Lander. The loaded mass includes any additional mass added to the launched and landed Cargo.

https://sam.gov/opp/f6f52bd9847c46c882ba6b32fcf7367a/view

Incidentally, HDL must be capable of delivering cargo between 12 to 15t:

Quote from: page 18 of HLS-RQMT-007
HDL-S-R-0030 Cargo Delivery

The HDL shall be capable of delivering 12 metric ton (t) (threshold) and 15 t (goal) of cargo to south lunar latitudes between 84° and 90°. The purpose of the HDL is to enable extended surface stays at Artemis Base Camp (ABC). The HDL will be capable of operating in the varying thermal and solar illumination/shadow environments within the required latitudes.
OK, I'm lost, again. Is there any relationship between HLS Option B (or Appendix P) and the Surface Habitat or the HDL? The question and its answer seem to relate to a surface habitat that is delivered by an HDL and remains part of the HDL after landing: i.e., an HDL that does not re-ascend.

Offline yg1968

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HDL delivers the surface habitat and the pressurized rover. There is no requirement for it to ascend cargo from the lunar surface. An HDL mission is not part of Option B or Appendix P but there is optional milestones for the development of HDL to DCR.
« Last Edit: 10/20/2022 03:08 am by yg1968 »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1583618988860637184

Quote
NASA has extended the deadline for replying to the HLS Sustaining Lunar Development (aka second Artemis lunar lander) solicitation from Nov. 15 to Dec. 6. That, in turn, pushes back the expected award date to next June.
https://sam.gov/opp/e9085924e04f40d8b1b20d9451a28342/view

Offline yg1968

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https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1583618988860637184

Quote
NASA has extended the deadline for replying to the HLS Sustaining Lunar Development (aka second Artemis lunar lander) solicitation from Nov. 15 to Dec. 6. That, in turn, pushes back the expected award date to next June.
https://sam.gov/opp/e9085924e04f40d8b1b20d9451a28342/view

The new dates are in the most recent BAA, amendment 3 (released on October 21, 2022):

Quote from: page 2 of the BAA
Description of Significant Changes - Amendment 3

- Extended the due date for proposals to December 6, 2022
- Extended the due date for NASA response on OGFPA and GTA requests to November 15, 2022 to allow further coordination on OGFPAs and GTAs
- Updated the anticipated Award Date/ATP to June 6, 2023
- Updated the estimated period of performance to reflect June 2023–June 2028.
- Added a third asterisk under the CLIN Table shown in Section 1.3.3

https://sam.gov/opp/e9085924e04f40d8b1b20d9451a28342/view
« Last Edit: 10/22/2022 04:25 pm by yg1968 »

Online DanClemmensen

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https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1583618988860637184

Quote
NASA has extended the deadline for replying to the HLS Sustaining Lunar Development (aka second Artemis lunar lander) solicitation from Nov. 15 to Dec. 6. That, in turn, pushes back the expected award date to next June.
If I understand the current plan, that's probably the third type of crewed lander, not the second. The first is Starship HLS option A. The second is Starship HLS Option B. I suppose SpaceX could just build its initial HLS to meet the Option B requirements, in which case the Appendix P lander might become the "second" lander type, but I can't see SpaceX freezing the HLS design for that long. The second crewed Starship HLS will be used for Artemis V, and the third crewed landing (another Option B or the Appendix P) will be used for Artemis VI. I've lost track of the current plan, but that must be out beyond 2029 by now?

Offline yg1968

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https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1583618988860637184

Quote
NASA has extended the deadline for replying to the HLS Sustaining Lunar Development (aka second Artemis lunar lander) solicitation from Nov. 15 to Dec. 6. That, in turn, pushes back the expected award date to next June.
If I understand the current plan, that's probably the third type of crewed lander, not the second. The first is Starship HLS option A. The second is Starship HLS Option B. I suppose SpaceX could just build its initial HLS to meet the Option B requirements, in which case the Appendix P lander might become the "second" lander type, but I can't see SpaceX freezing the HLS design for that long. The second crewed Starship HLS will be used for Artemis V, and the third crewed landing (another Option B or the Appendix P) will be used for Artemis VI. I've lost track of the current plan, but that must be out beyond 2029 by now?

There is only one crewed Option B demo.
« Last Edit: 10/22/2022 07:10 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Here is an attached chart from page 6 of the HLS Report which may help you better understand the various HLS missions (the dates have slipped by a few months for Appendix P):
https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/hls_30_day_report_final_041922.pdf
« Last Edit: 10/22/2022 05:22 pm by yg1968 »

Online DanClemmensen

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https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1583618988860637184

Quote
NASA has extended the deadline for replying to the HLS Sustaining Lunar Development (aka second Artemis lunar lander) solicitation from Nov. 15 to Dec. 6. That, in turn, pushes back the expected award date to next June.
If I understand the current plan, that's probably the third type of crewed lander, not the second. The first is Starship HLS option A. The second is Starship HLS Option B. I suppose SpaceX could just build its initial HLS to meet the Option B requirements, in which case the Appendix P lander might become the "second" lander type, but I can't see SpaceX freezing the HLS design for that long. The second crewed Starship HLS will be used for Artemis V, and the third crewed landing (another Option B or the Appendix P) will be used for Artemis VI. I've lost track of the current plan, but that must be out beyond 2029 by now?

There is only one crewed Option demo.
OK, I apparently did not understand the current plan correctly. I read this story NASA press release and some commentary.
    https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-provides-update-to-astronaut-moon-lander-plans-under-artemis
Upon re-reading it, I now interpret the excersize of Option B as not purchasing a second crewed HLS landing from SpaceX. Instead, it upgrades the Artemis III HLS to meet the requirements for the "sustaining" lander, which are the same as the Appendix P landers. Is this correct?

Online DanClemmensen

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And here it the post the apparently confused me into thinking that an Option B extension would buy a second crewed mission:

See below:

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1506732905829056513

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-provides-update-to-astronaut-moon-lander-plans-under-artemis
Quote
In April 2021, NASA selected SpaceX as its partner to land the next American astronauts on the lunar surface. That demonstration mission is targeted for no earlier than April 2025. Exercising an option under the original award, NASA now is asking SpaceX to transform the company’s proposed human landing system into a spacecraft that meets the agency’s requirements for recurring services for a second demonstration mission. Pursuing more development work under the original contract maximizes NASA’s investment and partnership with SpaceX.

Offline yg1968

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OK, I apparently did not understand the current plan correctly. I read this story NASA press release and some commentary.
    https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-provides-update-to-astronaut-moon-lander-plans-under-artemis
Upon re-reading it, I now interpret the excersize of Option B as not purchasing a second crewed HLS landing from SpaceX. Instead, it upgrades the Artemis III HLS to meet the requirements for the "sustaining" lander, which are the same as the Appendix P landers. Is this correct?

I don't know if the Option A and Option B HLS will be the same HLS-Starship. My guess is that they will be two different HLS-Starships. The Option B HLS-Starship has to be sustainable whereas the Option A HLS-Starship doesn't (i.e., Option A has less requirements than the sustainable landers). But it's possible that SpaceX will try to make the Option A HLS-Starship sustainable as well. Hopefully, we will find out more when Option B is exercised (it is supposed to be this fall).
« Last Edit: 10/22/2022 06:21 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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And here it the post the apparently confused me into thinking that an Option B extension would buy a second crewed mission:

See below:

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1506732905829056513

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-provides-update-to-astronaut-moon-lander-plans-under-artemis
Quote
In April 2021, NASA selected SpaceX as its partner to land the next American astronauts on the lunar surface. That demonstration mission is targeted for no earlier than April 2025. Exercising an option under the original award, NASA now is asking SpaceX to transform the company’s proposed human landing system into a spacecraft that meets the agency’s requirements for recurring services for a second demonstration mission. Pursuing more development work under the original contract maximizes NASA’s investment and partnership with SpaceX.

The Option A HLS has a crewed demo for a version that doesn't need to be sustainable. Option B has a second crewed HLS demo but for a sustainable version.
« Last Edit: 10/22/2022 06:21 pm by yg1968 »

Online DanClemmensen

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The Option A HLS has a crewed demo for a version that doesn't need to be sustainable. Option B has a second crewed HLS demo but for a sustainable version.
OK that was my original understanding and it was what I thought you were contradicting. So we are now in agreement. Can we stretch from this to an assumption that the second crewed  lander (i.e., the Option B lander) will be the Artemis V lander? I think so. From there we get Artemis VI as the first possible crewed landing for the Appendix P lander. When do you think Artemis VI will occur?

Offline yg1968

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The Option A HLS has a crewed demo for a version that doesn't need to be sustainable. Option B has a second crewed HLS demo but for a sustainable version.
OK that was my original understanding and it was what I thought you were contradicting. So we are now in agreement. Can we stretch from this to an assumption that the second crewed  lander (i.e., the Option B lander) will be the Artemis V lander? I think so. From there we get Artemis VI as the first possible crewed landing for the Appendix P lander. When do you think Artemis VI will occur?

Sorry, there was a typo in my reply (which I have now fixed). In your original message, you spoke of a second option B lander in parenthesis which got me confused since there is only one Option B lander.

The Option B and Appendix P landers have yet to be assigned to a mission but presumably Option B would be part of the Artemis V mission which is scheduled for 2027. The Appendix P lander would be part of Artemis VI in 2028 (if it is ready). This assumes that Artemis IV is a Gateway only mission. I am still hoping that NASA changes its mind on that.

See the schedule for the Artemis missions at this link:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/06/we-got-a-leaked-look-at-nasas-future-moon-missions-and-likely-delays/

See also page 7:
https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/fy23_nasa_budget_request_summary.pdf
« Last Edit: 10/22/2022 07:36 pm by yg1968 »

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