On a serious note, do you feel Blue's going to literally burst onto the scene with a crazy cadence once they finally launch? I can't for the life of me get a sense of where they are, other than they have a large workforce, lots of facilities, and lots of "plans".
As ever they are full of potential.My sense is no, there won't be a crazy cadence. I don't think they're building more than 2-3 v1.0 New Glenn cores so they're not going to be launching them willy nilly I think. I'd be surprised if they launch more than 5-6 NGs by end of 2026.
Don't they have to ramp up the cadence fairly quickly to support Kuiper? I don't think the remaining Atlas and scheduled Vulcan launches are near sufficient...
There is a discrepancy here, though. 38 Vulcans require 76 BE-4 engines, and BO is reported to be able to build 30 a year in Huntsville. I'm not sure how many they can build in Kent. New Glenn will also need BE-4s.
Quote from: DanClemmensenThere is a discrepancy here, though. 38 Vulcans require 76 BE-4 engines, and BO is reported to be able to build 30 a year in Huntsville. I'm not sure how many they can build in Kent. New Glenn will also need BE-4s.As it was originally conceived, Huntsville, can theoretically ramp up to 42 BE-4 engines or any mix of BE-4 and BE-3U thereof. But do keep in mind that Huntsville is being expanded to handle an increase in production rate.Kent, given how it is currently set up, the sooner it is out of the business of building anything other than experimental engine prototypes, the better.
Quote from: Robert_the_Doll on 01/07/2023 05:41 pmQuote from: DanClemmensenThere is a discrepancy here, though. 38 Vulcans require 76 BE-4 engines, and BO is reported to be able to build 30 a year in Huntsville. I'm not sure how many they can build in Kent. New Glenn will also need BE-4s.As it was originally conceived, Huntsville, can theoretically ramp up to 42 BE-4 engines or any mix of BE-4 and BE-3U thereof. But do keep in mind that Huntsville is being expanded to handle an increase in production rate.Kent, given how it is currently set up, the sooner it is out of the business of building anything other than experimental engine prototypes, the better.That's engines for 21 Vulcan first stages per year after the ramp to 42 is complete. Just using these numbers and with no inside information, it appears that there is no margin for a schedule slip and essentially no engines to spare for New Glenn if they are to launch the FCC-required 1638 Kuipers by 2026. I hope their expansion plan past 42/yr is on track.
Keep in mind that both ULA and Blue Origin are looking to recover and reuse their first stage's BE-4 engines.
Quote from: whitelancer64 on 01/09/2023 04:38 pmKeep in mind that both ULA and Blue Origin are looking to recover and reuse their first stage's BE-4 engines.When? If not before 2026, then it does not help to get the required 1638 satellites (50% of Kuiper) launched by then.
Blue has made an enormous investment in infrastructure and factories. Once they settle on a final engine design and get the production process right, they'll be in good shape.
Quote from: Steve G on 01/10/2023 12:48 amBlue has made an enormous investment in infrastructure and factories. Once they settle on a final engine design and get the production process right, they'll be in good shape.Not without the right people, and not without a design that works.I've been part of manufacturing teams that have taken products from engineering to full rate production, including growing new divisions to do that. You can't just throw people into a new factory with a new product and expect them to understand what to do. And the only way to understand what everyone should do is to experience the product from engineering to procurement to manufacturing to testing, and all the way to whatever the final product is supposed to do.Then you iterate what everyone just learned, since you're never lucky enough to get everything right the first time. Rinse and repeat, many times until you get to a stable product and a stable process.Blue Origin may have nice buildings, but they still have a long ways to go before they are truly operational.My $0.02
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 01/10/2023 02:17 amQuote from: Steve G on 01/10/2023 12:48 amBlue has made an enormous investment in infrastructure and factories. Once they settle on a final engine design and get the production process right, they'll be in good shape.Not without the right people, and not without a design that works.I've been part of manufacturing teams that have taken products from engineering to full rate production, including growing new divisions to do that. You can't just throw people into a new factory with a new product and expect them to understand what to do. And the only way to understand what everyone should do is to experience the product from engineering to procurement to manufacturing to testing, and all the way to whatever the final product is supposed to do.Then you iterate what everyone just learned, since you're never lucky enough to get everything right the first time. Rinse and repeat, many times until you get to a stable product and a stable process.Blue Origin may have nice buildings, but they still have a long ways to go before they are truly operational.My $0.02You are of course right. You need the right people. But... is there any reason (beyond general pessimism) to think Blue Origin doesn't have the right people to get manufacturing going? It's not like they're still a small team. They have hired people to do these jobs.I think you guys are looking for problems.
Quote from: JEF_300 on 01/10/2023 03:05 amQuote from: Coastal Ron on 01/10/2023 02:17 amQuote from: Steve G on 01/10/2023 12:48 amBlue has made an enormous investment in infrastructure and factories. Once they settle on a final engine design and get the production process right, they'll be in good shape.Not without the right people, and not without a design that works.I've been part of manufacturing teams that have taken products from engineering to full rate production, including growing new divisions to do that. You can't just throw people into a new factory with a new product and expect them to understand what to do. And the only way to understand what everyone should do is to experience the product from engineering to procurement to manufacturing to testing, and all the way to whatever the final product is supposed to do.Then you iterate what everyone just learned, since you're never lucky enough to get everything right the first time. Rinse and repeat, many times until you get to a stable product and a stable process.Blue Origin may have nice buildings, but they still have a long ways to go before they are truly operational.My $0.02You are of course right. You need the right people. But... is there any reason (beyond general pessimism) to think Blue Origin doesn't have the right people to get manufacturing going? It's not like they're still a small team. They have hired people to do these jobs.I think you guys are looking for problems.It's not the engineers and techniciansThey seem to have hired a large number of good people.They pay enough to do that and many of their projects are pretty cool.It's the management that's questionable.We are not "looking for problems".We are looking for evidence of progressand have been for six years.A rocket would be pretty good evidence.
