New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan

[Starshipdown]

A very rough and ready eyeballing (attached) would suggest the LOX tank I think.

Make another like this, only show all the hardware we've seen to date; fairings, adapter, 2nd stage demo tank, forward module, 1st stage qual tank, and aft fuselage so that people can really get an idea of just how much of New Glenn's been built.

[kevinof]

A very rough and ready eyeballing (attached) would suggest the LOX tank I think.

Make another like this, only show all the hardware we've seen to date; fairings, adapter, 2nd stage demo tank, forward module, 1st stage qual tank, and aft fuselage so that people can really get an idea of just how much of New Glenn's been built.

And none of it flight hardware. So maybe another 18/24 months? 

[Starshipdown]

A very rough and ready eyeballing (attached) would suggest the LOX tank I think.

Make another like this, only show all the hardware we've seen to date; fairings, adapter, 2nd stage demo tank, forward module, 1st stage qual tank, and aft fuselage so that people can really get an idea of just how much of New Glenn's been built.

And none of it flight hardware. So maybe another 18/24 months?

What a silly statement. How do you know the forwards and aft modules aren't flight hardware? And the rest IS flight-like hardware, not mockup boilerplates like the GS1 is. Also, we've seen flight hardware in build, including fairings.

[Rakietwawka2021]

A very rough and ready eyeballing (attached) would suggest the LOX tank I think.

Make another like this, only show all the hardware we've seen to date; fairings, adapter, 2nd stage demo tank, forward module, 1st stage qual tank, and aft fuselage so that people can really get an idea of just how much of New Glenn's been built.

I think we will see fully stacked New Glenn in this year

[Starshipdown]

A very rough and ready eyeballing (attached) would suggest the LOX tank I think.

Make another like this, only show all the hardware we've seen to date; fairings, adapter, 2nd stage demo tank, forward module, 1st stage qual tank, and aft fuselage so that people can really get an idea of just how much of New Glenn's been built.

I think we will see fully stacked New Glenn in this year

We might. But until then, this is a great way to show that we're past more than "half a fairing" and other BS that some around here like to push.

[Vahe231991]

A very rough and ready eyeballing (attached) would suggest the LOX tank I think.

Make another like this, only show all the hardware we've seen to date; fairings, adapter, 2nd stage demo tank, forward module, 1st stage qual tank, and aft fuselage so that people can really get an idea of just how much of New Glenn's been built.

I think we will see fully stacked New Glenn in this year

Blue Origin set a target date for the first launch of the New Glenn in the fourth quarter of this year back in March 2022, and if imagery of activities at the Blue Origin showing components of the first New Glenn rocket built so far indeed suggests that first New Glenn rocket under construction might be approaching the stage of final assembly, Blue Origin might actually met this target launch window. If any satellite imagery of the BE-4 and BE-3U engine firing stands in West Texas come to light a few months later showing plume interaction with the ground, it could suggest that Blue Origin could be in the process of completing and testing the BE-4 and BE-3U engines earmarked for integration into the first New Glenn rocket.

[lightleviathan]

A very rough and ready eyeballing (attached) would suggest the LOX tank I think.

Make another like this, only show all the hardware we've seen to date; fairings, adapter, 2nd stage demo tank, forward module, 1st stage qual tank, and aft fuselage so that people can really get an idea of just how much of New Glenn's been built.

I think we will see fully stacked New Glenn in this year

Blue Origin set a target date for the first launch of the New Glenn in the fourth quarter of this year back in March 2022, and if imagery of activities at the Blue Origin showing components of the first New Glenn rocket built so far indeed suggests that first New Glenn rocket under construction might be approaching the stage of final assembly, Blue Origin might actually met this target launch window. If any satellite imagery of the BE-4 and BE-3U engine firing stands in West Texas come to light a few months later showing plume interaction with the ground, it could suggest that Blue Origin could be in the process of completing and testing the BE-4 and BE-3U engines earmarked for integration into the first New Glenn rocket.

Personally, I only think that Blue will WDR New Glenn fully stacked. But definitely will launch Q1 2024 if nothing goes wrong during WDR or static fire.

[DrHeywoodFloyd]

A very rough and ready eyeballing (attached) would suggest the LOX tank I think.

Make another like this, only show all the hardware we've seen to date; fairings, adapter, 2nd stage demo tank, forward module, 1st stage qual tank, and aft fuselage so that people can really get an idea of just how much of New Glenn's been built.

I think we will see fully stacked New Glenn in this year

Blue Origin set a target date for the first launch of the New Glenn in the fourth quarter of this year back in March 2022, and if imagery of activities at the Blue Origin showing components of the first New Glenn rocket built so far indeed suggests that first New Glenn rocket under construction might be approaching the stage of final assembly, Blue Origin might actually met this target launch window. If any satellite imagery of the BE-4 and BE-3U engine firing stands in West Texas come to light a few months later showing plume interaction with the ground, it could suggest that Blue Origin could be in the process of completing and testing the BE-4 and BE-3U engines earmarked for integration into the first New Glenn rocket.

It appears others are coming to the same conclusion that we could see a launch the end of this year, or early next year...

[greybeardengineer]

That video is far from compelling in any way. There are some verbal claims of various bits of flight hardware being spotted while interleaving clips of NG animations and the NG first stage battleship article being trundled around.

[DanClemmensen]

That video is far from compelling in any way. There are some verbal claims of various bits of flight hardware being spotted while interleaving clips of NG animations and the NG first stage battleship article being trundled around.

I found the narration disconcerting. The pronunciation sounded like a text-to-speech convertor. The most glaring was the pronunciation of BE4 as "before",  but there were also some very odd sentence breaks and other strange word constructs that I do not think a human would make. You should probably watch it with the audio turned off and just read the sub-titles. Still, there seemed to be basically no information about actual flight articles, and the schedule estimate was from the end of December when the video was made.

[su27k]

It appears others are coming to the same conclusion that we could see a launch the end of this year, or early next year...

It would be a miracle if they can launch it in 2024...

[Robert_the_Doll]

A very rough and ready eyeballing (attached) would suggest the LOX tank I think.

Make another like this, only show all the hardware we've seen to date; fairings, adapter, 2nd stage demo tank, forward module, 1st stage qual tank, and aft fuselage so that people can really get an idea of just how much of New Glenn's been built.

I think we will see fully stacked New Glenn in this year

Blue Origin set a target date for the first launch of the New Glenn in the fourth quarter of this year back in March 2022, and if imagery of activities at the Blue Origin showing components of the first New Glenn rocket built so far indeed suggests that first New Glenn rocket under construction might be approaching the stage of final assembly, Blue Origin might actually met this target launch window. If any satellite imagery of the BE-4 and BE-3U engine firing stands in West Texas come to light a few months later showing plume interaction with the ground, it could suggest that Blue Origin could be in the process of completing and testing the BE-4 and BE-3U engines earmarked for integration into the first New Glenn rocket.

It appears others are coming to the same conclusion that we could see a launch the end of this year, or early next year...

Ah, just another clickbait YouTube channel. It is no different from other similar ones, like AlphaTech and Great SpaceX Race in that regard. Probably all the same people.

[kevinof]

Yes agreed. I mentioned 18/24 months to launch a couple of posts back and some people got their knickers in a twist over it. Not a snowballs chance in hell it will launch in 2023.

It appears others are coming to the same conclusion that we could see a launch the end of this year, or early next year...

It would be a miracle if they can launch it in 2024...

[Starshipdown]

A very rough and ready eyeballing (attached) would suggest the LOX tank I think.

Make another like this, only show all the hardware we've seen to date; fairings, adapter, 2nd stage demo tank, forward module, 1st stage qual tank, and aft fuselage so that people can really get an idea of just how much of New Glenn's been built.

I think we will see fully stacked New Glenn in this year

Blue Origin set a target date for the first launch of the New Glenn in the fourth quarter of this year back in March 2022, and if imagery of activities at the Blue Origin showing components of the first New Glenn rocket built so far indeed suggests that first New Glenn rocket under construction might be approaching the stage of final assembly, Blue Origin might actually met this target launch window. If any satellite imagery of the BE-4 and BE-3U engine firing stands in West Texas come to light a few months later showing plume interaction with the ground, it could suggest that Blue Origin could be in the process of completing and testing the BE-4 and BE-3U engines earmarked for integration into the first New Glenn rocket.

It appears others are coming to the same conclusion that we could see a launch the end of this year, or early next year...

This is a really awful video. There's not much content here, the computer-generated voice is disconcerting and annoying, and it's obvious clickbait. Almost no footage of New Glenn hardware, just a brief mention of and a single photo of the fairing drop test, and then constantly showing the same old footage of the GS1 boilerplate rolling around. And it's not like they can't skim NSF or other places that have photos and videosof the real qual and flight hardware that we've all just been discussing, like the forward and aft modules, the demo tanks, etc.

[whitelancer64]

OK, they may have done a cryo test on a "stage demonstrator tank". I think we can take this as evidence that is would be difficult for them to do a cryo test on an actual Stage 2 without someone noticing. Do you agree?

All we can really say for sure is there was no fanfare, and no significant public attention given to the demonstration upper stage, with no updates at all on what testing was done with it.

What is the "demonstration upper stage"? Is this different from the "stage demonstrator tank" that BO tweeted about? Have we seen a picture of it?

Please refer to this post:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41146.msg2452641#msg2452641

[DanClemmensen]

OK, they may have done a cryo test on a "stage demonstrator tank". I think we can take this as evidence that is would be difficult for them to do a cryo test on an actual Stage 2 without someone noticing. Do you agree?

All we can really say for sure is there was no fanfare, and no significant public attention given to the demonstration upper stage, with no updates at all on what testing was done with it.

What is the "demonstration upper stage"? Is this different from the "stage demonstrator tank" that BO tweeted about? Have we seen a picture of it?

Please refer to this post:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41146.msg2452641#msg2452641

So the answer to my question appears to be that Whitelancer's "demonstration upper stage" is in fact the same article that BO refers to as "stage demonstrator tank".

[whitelancer64]

OK, they may have done a cryo test on a "stage demonstrator tank". I think we can take this as evidence that is would be difficult for them to do a cryo test on an actual Stage 2 without someone noticing. Do you agree?

All we can really say for sure is there was no fanfare, and no significant public attention given to the demonstration upper stage, with no updates at all on what testing was done with it.

What is the "demonstration upper stage"? Is this different from the "stage demonstrator tank" that BO tweeted about? Have we seen a picture of it?

Please refer to this post:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41146.msg2452641#msg2452641

So the answer to my question appears to be that Whitelancer's "demonstration upper stage" is in fact the same article that BO refers to as "stage demonstrator tank".

Yes, "stage demonstrator tank" = "demonstration upper stage," since that is clearly what it is.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41146.msg2449366#msg2449366

[DanClemmensen]

So the answer to my question appears to be that Whitelancer's "demonstration upper stage" is in fact the same article that BO refers to as "stage demonstrator tank".

Yes, "stage demonstrator tank" = "demonstration upper stage," since that is clearly what it is.

Thanks. There is only the one article that we know of, and it has two names. I prefer to use the BO name, since it is more precise and is "official". If they hang some engines on it and test them, I will be happy to call it a "demonstration upper stage," but this is merely a personal preference.

[whitelancer64]

So the answer to my question appears to be that Whitelancer's "demonstration upper stage" is in fact the same article that BO refers to as "stage demonstrator tank".

Yes, "stage demonstrator tank" = "demonstration upper stage," since that is clearly what it is.

Thanks. There is only the one article that we know of, and it has two names. I prefer to use the BO name, since it is more precise and is "official". If they hang some engines on it and test them, I will be happy to call it a "demonstration upper stage," but this is merely a personal preference.

I think it's less precise, since there are multiple possible tanks - and it looks like there has already been some confusion in this thread WRT the first stage qualification tank shown at the tank processing facility. Specifying it as the demonstration upper stage unit makes more sense to me, which at any rate is why I called it that.

[LouScheffer]

So the answer to my question appears to be that Whitelancer's "demonstration upper stage" is in fact the same article that BO refers to as "stage demonstrator tank".

Yes, "stage demonstrator tank" = "demonstration upper stage," since that is clearly what it is.

Thanks. There is only the one article that we know of, and it has two names. I prefer to use the BO name, since it is more precise and is "official". If they hang some engines on it and test them, I will be happy to call it a "demonstration upper stage," but this is merely a personal preference.

I think it's less precise, since there are multiple possible tanks - and it looks like there has already been some confusion in this thread WRT the first stage qualification tank shown at the tank processing facility. Specifying it as the demonstration upper stage unit makes more sense to me, which at any rate is why I called it that.

There is a lot of difference between a tank and a stage.  A stage is shown below for reference.  It has (a) engines, (b) avionics, (c) batteries, (d) a reaction control system, (e) a self-destruct system, and many more pieces.

The item in the BO picture is a tank.  Most people here think it's a tank.  BO themselves explicitly call it a tank.  It's not a stage in any conventional meaning of the word.  It's missing a lot of parts.  It's not the right size or center of gravity to simulate the stage for handling, as engines stick far out and are among the heaviest pieces.  So in what sense can it be considered a stage?