First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?

[Tywin]

Well, let's see which of these monsters goes to orbit first...

[zodiacchris]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

[Tommyboy]

At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.

[Tywin]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

Do you think Blue's factories are empty right now?

Prototypes on the ramp, if that is true...

[Tywin]

At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.

People laughed at SpaceX in the beginning, when ULA was in charge, people laughed a few years ago that SLS will fly before Starship...and most of them have been wrong...

Next year will be the cotton wool test...

[Nomadd]

At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.

People laughed at SpaceX in the beginning, when ULA was in charge, people laughed a few years ago that SLS will fly before Starship...and most of them have been wrong...

Next year will be the cotton wool test...

People laughed at Bugs Bunny too. So what?

[zodiacchris]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

[Tywin]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

They will both compete in the commercial market...

And it is the reliability, price and reusability of both rockets that matter, not the performance on paper...Shuttle echoes....

[TrevorMonty]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

[whitelancer64]

*snip*
Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

New Glenn's payload to LEO is listed as 45,000 kg, although that number is from several years ago now, and it was widely thought to be sandbagged even then. Improvements to the BE-4 engine made over the past several years of development should push that over 50,000 kg fairly easily. AND that is while reusing the booster.

It's not that far off Falcon Heavy's maximum possible in expendable mode of 64,000 kg, and about double the Heavy's payload capability when it is fully recovered.

Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

[whitelancer64]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

[Surfdaddy]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

But of course factory sizing is one thing, and actually doing it is quite another. Look how long it's taking for Tory to get his first few engines. The BE4 is nowhere near mature or reusable, and that's going to take quite a long time even after they are flying. Compare to the Merlins, for example. Now THAT'S a mature engine.

[whitelancer64]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

But of course factory sizing is one thing, and actually doing it is quite another. Look how long it's taking for Tory to get his first few engines. The BE4 is nowhere near mature or reusable, and that's going to take quite a long time even after they are flying. Compare to the Merlins, for example. Now THAT'S a mature engine.

The time it took to get the first two engines was not a production problem, but largely was due to development taking much, much longer than initially anticipated.  Also, the Kent facility is not set up for assembly-line mass production. Huntsville is.

Blue Origin has to approach producing 40 BE-4s per year just to meet the demand that will be required of it from both New Glenn and Vulcan initial flights within the next couple of years. It will likely have to significantly exceed that in subsequent years, which is why they doubled their workforce.

[Vahe231991]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

But of course factory sizing is one thing, and actually doing it is quite another. Look how long it's taking for Tory to get his first few engines. The BE4 is nowhere near mature or reusable, and that's going to take quite a long time even after they are flying. Compare to the Merlins, for example. Now THAT'S a mature engine.

The time it took to get the first two engines was not a production problem, but largely was due to development taking much, much longer than initially anticipated.  Also, the Kent facility is not set up for assembly-line mass production. Huntsville is.

Blue Origin has to approach producing 40 BE-4s per year just to meet the demand that will be required of it from both New Glenn and Vulcan initial flights within the next couple of years. It will likely have to significantly exceed that in subsequent years, which is why they doubled their workforce.

Examples of the Raptor engine for the Starship, including initial flight-ready engines, have undergone smooth test runs in contrast to delays that the BE-4 engine faced in development before the first flight-ready examples were finally delivered to ULA several weeks ago. Therefore, the Starship is much likelier to reach orbit first than the New Glenn, since the first launch of the Vulcan has to take place and fabrication of additional BE-4s before the New Glenn has a chance of making its first flight next year.

[meekGee]

Oh no, just saw this pole...

NG was competing with FH.
Now it is competing with SS, and is woefully behind.

Maybe if you poll NG to orbit vs. SS to Mars you'll have a balanced poll...

[Tommyboy]

Voting closes: 2023-10-15, 21:39:34

My bet is that we'll have a definitive answer even before this poll closes...

[SweetWater]

AFAIK, Blue has announced New Glenn's inaugural launch as as NET Q4 2023 - which, per Berger's Rule, really means NET Q1 2024. Given that Blue has revenue coming in from selling BE-4's to ULA and their overall track record, I see no reason to assume anything from them but continued gradatim and substantially less ferociter. 

The Starship/Super Heavy orbital test flight has been mere weeks or months away for several years now; however, the internal (Starlink 2) and external (Artemis) pressures to begin actually launching have to be mounting. Kremlinology into what is actually going on down in Boca Chica is a shot in the dark, but I'm in the camp that assumes that Shotwell taking over the day-to-day there is a good thing, and as long as Elon can get his book report done for the FAA I would really hope we'd see at least 2-3 launch attempts out of Boca Chica by the end of the year, although it wouldn't really surprise me if they don't make orbit on the first attempt.

[nicp]

It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

[Eric Hedman]

Unless there is a major design flaw in Starship, I expect Starship will win this battle.

[Coastal Ron]

At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.

People laughed at SpaceX in the beginning, when ULA was in charge...

In charge of what? ULA was the primary launch provider for the U.S. Government, and ULA (plus many other USG contractors) were afraid that SpaceX would take away business from them, so they started an advertising campaign to discredit SpaceX. That isn't "laughing", that is how business works sometimes.

Those of us that have been supporting SpaceX since early on didn't know for sure that SpaceX would succeed, but we were cheering them on because if they DID succeed then it would change the launch industry for the better. Which they have.

...people laughed a few years ago that SLS will fly before Starship...

I have been on this forum since before the SLS was created, and I honestly don't know of anyone that has framed the Starship as a competitor to the SLS. If anything those of us that don't like the SLS do so because of the tremendous cost of the SLS, not because of some fictional competition with the Starship.

...and most of them have been wrong

You are the one that has been wrong about how you have been framing the above charges.

Next year will be the cotton wool test...

I have no idea what this means, and this is the silliest poll I've seen in quite a while, because Blue Origin is moving exceedingly slow, has hardly any production hardware ready for testing, and they themselves are projecting launching New Glenn no earlier than Q4 2023.

SpaceX has been producing higher and higher fidelity flight units of the Starship for the past year, with LOTS of testing, and it looks reasonable that they will launch in Q1 of 2023.