Vega VV18 - Pléiades Neo 3 & rideshares - 29 April 2021 (01:50 UTC)

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-posts; some of the secondary payloads for VV18 identified:

Arianespace offers new shared smallsat payload opportunities on its Vega launcher; the next mission already is fully booked, dated October 13

For the next launch opportunity – Vega Flight VV18, targeted for the first quarter of 2021 – five companies already have signed contracts for payload slots, thereby fully booking the capacity on this mission.

For Vega’s next SSMS launch, Flight VV18 will be a piggyback mission with a dispenser configuration based on one hexagonal module below the main payload interface. Its fully-booked capacity underscores how attractive this opportunity was to users and customers, including Spire and Nanoavionics through SAB Launch Services; Eutelsat and Myriota, through Tyvak; and the Norwegian Space Center with its Norsat-3 satellite, through SpaceFlight Laboratories.

Links from Gunter's web site:
An unknown number of Lemur-2 satellites, each a 3U CubeSat
NanoAvionics satellite = CubeSat?
ELO, 6U CubeSat
Three Myriota satellites, each a 3U CubeSat
NORSAT 3, 15 kg microsatellite

Any other secondary satellites?
***

As for the primary payload: What satellite or satellites on the Vega manifest are meant for a sun-synchronous orbit (SSO), 10:30 am local time of descending node (LTDN), altitude 550-610 km?
Salo posits a CERES.

Obviously, only the first two "CERES" satellites are scheduled to launch in 2021. Together or not, it doesn't say.
Source:
http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/15/comptes-rendus/cion_def/l15cion_def1920067_compte-rendu#
Date: July 8, 2020
Google translate

<snip> In 2021, the first two satellites of the CERES constellation (space-based electromagnetic intelligence and listening capability) will be launched. <snip>

(That was in July, now maybe the schedule has, due to the delays at Vega and Soyuz, changed again.)

***

Planned launches:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2021
January - CERES 1, ELO, Lemur-2y (xTBD), Myriota 1, Myriota 2, Myriota 3, NORSAT 3, NanoAvionics sat + multiple sats - Vega (VV18) - Kourou ZLV (or Q1)
Early - Galileo-FOC FM23, Galileo-FOC FM24 - Soyuz ST-B/Fregat-MT (VS26?) - Kourou ELS
January February - Star One D2, Eutelsat Quantum - Ariane 5 ECA (VA254) - Kourou ELA-3
Q2 - CERES 1, CERES 2, CERES 3 + multiple sats - Vega (VV19) - Kourou ZLV
Midyear - LARES 2 - Vega C (inaugural flight) (VV19)  - Kourou ZLV
Q4 - SSMS flight 2 - Vega C - Kourou ZLV

Changes on September 21st
Changes on October 12th
Changes on October 13th
zubenelgenubi

[Rik ISS-fan]

On the render shared by Steven Pietrobon I think we see a payload interface ring on top of the Pleiades Neo satellites. If this is a standard payload adapter for Vega than it has a diameter of either 937 or 1194mm. With the size if the ring compared to the full satellite they aren't very large.
(what I thy to say here is that they should fit inside the Ø2330mm Vega fairing, but they probably weigh between 500 and 1200kg.)

[GWR64]

On the render shared by Steven Pietrobon I think we see a payload interface ring on top of the Pleiades Neo satellites. If this is a standard payload adapter for Vega than it has a diameter of either 937 or 1194mm. With the size if the ring compared to the full satellite they aren't very large.

Well, the satellite can be seen a little in the video "Pléiades Neo set for launch in early 2021" in the message that I and @Steven Pietrobon posted again.

Or, maybe better quality, on YouTube:

It's not that small, I think.

Also 'early 2021' is a vague term.

Better? 

08/10/2020 The first two Pléiades Neo satellites are now qualified and ready and will soon be heading to the launch pad in French Guyana. Their launch is now scheduled for very early 2021!

https://www.intelligence-airbusds.com/en/9462-pleiades-neo-ready-for-launch

Overview and orbit: https://www.intelligence-airbusds.com/en/8671-pleiades-neo-trusted-intelligence

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

Re: VV18 and VV19:

https://www.arianespace.com/press-release/arianespace-offers-new-shared-smallsat-payload-opportunities-on-its-vega-launcher-the-next-mission-already-is-fully-booked/
[attached image]

And:

CERES orbit:
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/CERES_(satellite)

Orbite Orbite    Basse
Périapside    250 km
Apoapside    800 km

Pleiades Neo orbit:
https://www.intelligence-airbusds.com/en/8671-pleiades-neo-trusted-intelligence

Orbit: Sun-synchronous, 10:30 a.m.,
Descending node, 620 km altitude

The orbits listed appear to better match Pleiades Neo rather than CERES.

And the launch timing appears to match Pleiades Neo better:

08/10/2020 The first two Pléiades Neo satellites are now qualified and ready and will soon be heading to the launch pad in French Guyana. Their launch is now scheduled for very early 2021!

https://www.intelligence-airbusds.com/en/9462-pleiades-neo-ready-for-launch

Overview and orbit: https://www.intelligence-airbusds.com/en/8671-pleiades-neo-trusted-intelligence

[zubenelgenubi]

This launch thread, if the deductions cross-posted below are true, would be superseded by individual launch threads for each satellite of the pair.

Cross-post:

Re: VV18 and VV19:

https://www.arianespace.com/press-release/arianespace-offers-new-shared-smallsat-payload-opportunities-on-its-vega-launcher-the-next-mission-already-is-fully-booked/
[attached image]

And:

CERES orbit:
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/CERES_(satellite)

Orbite Orbite    Basse
Périapside    250 km
Apoapside    800 km

Pleiades Neo orbit:
https://www.intelligence-airbusds.com/en/8671-pleiades-neo-trusted-intelligence

Orbit: Sun-synchronous, 10:30 a.m.,
Descending node, 620 km altitude

The orbits listed appear to better match Pleiades Neo rather than CERES.

And the launch timing appears to match Pleiades Neo better:

08/10/2020 The first two Pléiades Neo satellites are now qualified and ready and will soon be heading to the launch pad in French Guyana. Their launch is now scheduled for very early 2021!

https://www.intelligence-airbusds.com/en/9462-pleiades-neo-ready-for-launch

Overview and orbit: https://www.intelligence-airbusds.com/en/8671-pleiades-neo-trusted-intelligence

Pléiades Neo 1 (?) launch thread (EDIT Jan 18, 2021 now merged)

Pléiades Neo 2 (?) launch thread

EDITed for clarification

[GWR64]

Superseded?

Why? 

[zubenelgenubi]

Superseded?

Why? 

I edited a clarification into my post above.

[GWR64]

https://twitter.com/AirbusSpace/status/1319277180463972355

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post; my bold:

ESA lays out roadmap to Vega-C and Ariane 6 flights, dated October 29

Vega C
<snip>
Two Vega flights, VV17 and VV18, are planned before Vega-C. Activities for the modification of the mobile gantry for Vega-C, such as modifications of the fluids networks as well as connection and installation of the new control bench for Vega-C, will have to start after VV18 now planned early February.
<snip>

[zubenelgenubi]

Links from Gunter's web site:
An unknown number of Lemur-2 satellites, each a 3U CubeSat
NanoAvionics satellite = CubeSat?
ELO, 6U CubeSat
Three Myriota satellites, each a 3U CubeSat
NORSAT 3, 15 kg microsatellite
EDIT November 2 EIRSAT 1, 2U CubeSat
***

EIRSAT-1 will fly with Vega, not from the ISS.
https://twitter.com/AmsatUK/status/1321822271003152384

#EIRSAT-1 #CubeSat, built by students at University College Dublin, is expected to launch on Vega in Q1 2021.
The #IARU coordinated downlink frequency is 437.100 MHz
https://eirsat1.ie/press

Planned launches:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2021
Early February 3 January (or Q1) - Pleiades Neo 1, EIRSAT 1, ELO, Lemur-2y (xTBD), Myriota 1, Myriota 2, Myriota 3, NORSAT 3, NanoAvionics sat + multiple sats CERES 1 - Vega (VV18) - Kourou ZLV

Changes on October 13th
Changes on October 14th
Changes on October 30th
Changes on November 1st
Changes on November 16th

[zubenelgenubi]

SFN Launch Schedule, dated November 9:
Confirms use of Vega for VV18, early February 2021, Pléiades Neo 1 as the primary payload, along with multiple rideshare payloads.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

https://twitter.com/AirbusSpace/status/1328243597683150849

The first #PléiadesNeo satellite will be launched from Kourou in French Guyana on 3rd February 2021.

[Ben the Space Brit]

Still five months off. I'm guessing that the VV17 failure isn't likely to seriously impact this mission?

[gosnold]

Still five months off. I'm guessing that the VV17 failure isn't likely to seriously impact this mission?

Five month is short for a return to flight but the issue has already been identified. I am more concerned about Airbus' willingness to risk its crown jewels without a serious, in-depth look into Avio's QA process. Similar issues may lay dormant.

[GWR64]

Still five months off. I'm guessing that the VV17 failure isn't likely to seriously impact this mission?

Five months? 
The launch date at the beginning of February 2021 is probably almost the earliest that was possible.
About 2 months between two Vega launches plus the holidays over Christmas and the New Year.
I think VV18 will be delayed.

[bolun]

https://www.avio.com/press-release/results-vv17-failure-investigation-independent-inquiry-commission-vv18-vega-return

RESULTS OF THE VV17 FAILURE INVESTIGATION BY THE INDEPENDENT INQUIRY COMMISSION. VV18 VEGA RETURN-TO-FLIGHT EXPECTED BY THE END OF Q1 2021

Colleferro, 18 December 2020 - Avio S.p.A. announces that the Independent Inquiry Commission composed of ESA and Arianespace and supported by Avio has completed its works. The Commission has confirmed the initial hypothesis of a problem related to the integration of the fourth-stage AVUM Thrust Vector Control (TVC) system as the cause of the loss of control of the launcher. The Commission has also provided a comprehensive set of recommendations to ensure safe and prompt return to flight by end of Q1 2021, as well as to ensure launch vehicles reliability on the long term.

[Ben the Space Brit]

The VV17 failure report was very politely damning about Avio's procedures and it's clear that budget-reduction measures severely compromised critical technical knowledge on the assembly-line. Some modification of procedures, rewriting of documentation and also maybe modification of some components to partially idiot-proof the process is indicated.

I am... sceptical... that the necessary measures can be in place and ESA satisfied with them in time with this aggressive RTF schedule.

[mn]

The VV17 failure report was very politely damning about Avio's procedures and it's clear that budget-reduction measures severely compromised critical technical knowledge on the assembly-line. Some modification of procedures, rewriting of documentation and also maybe modification of some components to partially idiot-proof the process is indicated.

I am... sceptical... that the necessary measures can be in place and ESA satisfied with them in time with this aggressive RTF schedule.

Why? it's a problem that is easily checked now that they know about it.

Unless they suspect that there are other similar issues and they want a full review of everything before RTF?

[Rik ISS-fan]

Let's quote another part of the Arianespace press release:

A comprehensive set of both immediate and permanent recommendations has been presented by the IEC to ensure safe and prompt return to flight, as well as to ensure launch vehicles reliability on the long term. The first set of recommendations include additional inspections and tests on the next two Vega launchers, whose hardware is already totally or partially produced, and workmanship. Permanent recommendations have been proposed to further mitigate the identified root causes, regarding the manufacturing, integration and acceptance processes on Vega assembly lines in Italy and its final acceptance in French Guiana.

Starting this week, a task force steered by ESA and Arianespace has started implementing the roadmap proposed by the IEC and will thoroughly follow its implementation. A set of actions will be implemented by Vega’s prime contractor Avio, under the supervision of Arianespace, as launch service provider, and ESA, as launch system development authority, in order to make possible the next Vega launch, VV18, still scheduled by Q1 2021 from French Guiana, and the following ones.

For VV18 and the next Vega launch, the AVUM stages were very near completion. So in the press statement they stated that with ESA/Arianespace oversight AVIO has to conduct additional test (those that AFAIK should always take place) are planned to be performed at CSG. (Or in Italy if the AVUM hasn't been shipped yet.)
I think the additional checks will also need to be performed on the AVUM+ for the VegaC maiden flight.

The new production and qualification procedures should be normalized with the third AVUM in the pipe line and the succeeding AVUM+ stages. AFAIK AVIO must check it's product to such an extent that Arianespace shouldn't be able to find flaws in these stages when they test them at CSG. In my opinion if Arianespace finds problems (not caused by transport) AVIO should have a huge problem.

So I agree the work processes won't change before VV18, because the work already took place. Most likely really implementing all recommendations at the factory takes about half a year.

(Moderators feel free to move this post If it's less appropriate here.)

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

Dated December 28
https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

Late March • Vega • Pléiades Neo 1
Launch time: TBD
Launch site: ZLV, Kourou, French Guiana