Author Topic: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011, and future events  (Read 610949 times)

Offline Perchlorate

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #840 on: 01/30/2018 12:02 am »
Doesn't this thread beg to be retitled?
Pete B, a Civil Engineer, in an age of incivility.

Offline Cristiano

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #841 on: 01/30/2018 08:54 am »
Hi Thomas,
The station is dead the link you gave has been looking the same since back in 2016. The station is in a slow roll and has been since early 2016.

Do you have any source for that? Visual observations?

If Chinese had the ability to control where the station would come down they would have taken it out of orbit before now!

That’s impossible, because the two main engines don’t work.
I’m pretty sure that they have the control of the RCS, because it seems confirmed by both my simulation and TLEs (I believe that this is too much of a coincidence to be a coincidence). They just need to wait until the last 10 to 20 orbits before to start the RCS to deorbit and to keep the station in a high drag attitude.

You are believing nothing more than Chinese propaganda on this!

I just believe my simulations and the TLE data.

We will know in about  2 month who was right.

Sure and I can be, without any doubt, completely wrong; but as an astronomy enthusiast, I like to do some investigations about this topic and I posted graphs and data, but you are talking about artifacts, propaganda and conspiracy; to be honest, I’m not very interested in that topic.

Offline Cristiano

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #842 on: 01/30/2018 08:59 am »
My current prediction is March 21st +/- two weeks.   My original May 2016 prediction was the "second quarter" of 2018.

Please, if possible, could you say some simulation details?

Offline Cristiano

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #843 on: 01/30/2018 05:12 pm »
This station has been dead since 2016 and anomalies in your data are artifacts [...]

Here is another big artifact:



706 m, this time!

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #844 on: 02/02/2018 12:52 am »
Cristiano
The station is dead the link you gave has been looking the same since back in 2016. The station is in a slow roll and has been since early 2016.

The data you give suggest it's been stable for months

Quote
If Chinese had the ability to control where the station would come down they would have taken it out of orbit before now!

Opinion, not evidence.

Quote
You are believing nothing more than Chinese propaganda on this!  Sources back in late 2016 reported the unit that charged the batteries off the solar panels had failed. 

What sources?  How credible?

Quote
China is in a save face mode right now and trying to calm international criticism in the world press and from foreign governements.

Ethic and cultural stereotyping is not evidence.

Quote
Believe if the hysteria in the world media gets to loud and with the addition of criticism from foreign leaders getting out of hand would not  be surprised China tries to break it up wit a anti-satellite missile!
We will know in about  2 month who was right.

This is FUD pure and simple.
Apologies in advance for any lack of civility - it's unintended

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #845 on: 02/02/2018 12:53 am »

That’s impossible, because the two main engines don’t work.

What's the source for this?
Apologies in advance for any lack of civility - it's unintended

Offline Cristiano

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #846 on: 02/02/2018 08:56 am »

That’s impossible, because the two main engines don’t work.

What's the source for this?

http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2018/01/16/tiangong-1-frequently-asked-questions-2/
question: "Q. What was the original disposal plan?"
It's not explicitly said " it can no longer be commanded to fire its [main] engines", but it's clear from the context of the question.

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #847 on: 02/03/2018 12:09 am »

http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2018/01/16/tiangong-1-frequently-asked-questions-2/
question: "Q. What was the original disposal plan?"
It's not explicitly said " it can no longer be commanded to fire its [main] engines", but it's clear from the context of the question.

Not a primary source then.
Apologies in advance for any lack of civility - it's unintended

Offline Cristiano

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #848 on: 02/14/2018 07:23 pm »
Here’s a Monte Carlo simulation for the reentry date:



I use the SGP4 propagator to calculate the initial state of the Tiangong-1 for the TLE epoch, then I propagate it with a specially crafted propagator (based on a DOPRI853 integrator).
Then, for 49 times I add a normally distributed random offset to the initial radius vector and I propagate the new random state.
I obtained 50 reentry dates from the original TLEs (the blue dots) and 2450 reentry dates from the modified initial states (the gray dots).
The confidence interval is just based on the variance of the reentry dates.
The simulation took about 4.4 hours of CPU time.

Offline bolun

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Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #850 on: 02/18/2018 12:16 pm »
Tiangong 1 this morning  on a max 89° pass at 12:13 UT on a 15 second exposure. Tiangong 1 shows not sign of tumbling.
Regards
Thomas

Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #851 on: 02/20/2018 04:45 am »
Dalhousie
Fact radio satellite observers had been hearing signals from the station since it was launch 2011 after early 2016 they stop hearing any signals out of Tiangong 1.  Fact!
Fact  the China Communist have gone into save face mode over many issues over the years which has been well documented, it not stereotyping as you claim it's fact. In addition have a good friend who lives in that part of the world and is very versed in Chinese culture  especially when it come to the Chinese communist government and on this  he agrees with my assignment of the Chinese government being in a save face mode on Tiangong 1!

From my observation in very late 2015 we knew the station was in trouble and from observation through January,  February and early March of 2016 doing visual, video and photographic observation had figured out the station was dead or in the process of dying. Fact! We just did not walk out one night and say oh Tiangong 1 is in trouble  we had been regularly observing the station visually and photographically  since the station was launched in 2011.
The station for whatever reason has been in a slow roll  since early 2016 which has recently been confirmed by high resolution images by Phillip Smith. In addition we reported this fact in early 2016 that the station was in a roll. There is just no way getting around the fact the station is in a roll from Mr.Smith images. At first we thought what  look like a roll could be explained away by field rotation in being shot on a azimuth tracking platform  but Mr.Smith is shooting off a modified equatorial system which rules out field rotation.
Yep the Chinese communist never have put out propaganda,  clearly no historical evidence of that happening! Also  no real history of Chinese communist taking a shot with  a anti-satellite missile at their own satellites,nope none at all! Sarcasm of course!
Last haven't just been setting behind a computer  watching what has been going on with Tiangong 1 but have actually been doing real world observation of Tiangong 1! Clearly could not possibly know anything about  Tiangong 1,as printed in the the Chinese Daily "I'm not an expert" then again just  a amature astronomer who has being observing for fifty-five years couldn't possible know anything on the subject!
« Last Edit: 02/20/2018 10:59 am by Thomas Dorman »

Offline Lar

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #852 on: 02/20/2018 05:18 pm »
(mod) Maybe less sarcasm would be helpful. No, no maybe about it.
« Last Edit: 02/21/2018 01:11 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #853 on: 02/20/2018 07:23 pm »
Lar
Sarcasm  was in order since there was a clear attempt to make it sound that I was was being a bigot because we made a factual statement that the Chinese communist government was trying to save face on the issue of Tiangong 1!
In addition for one who made the post to criticize another for sarcass you yourself did effectively the very same thing with all due respect!
Dalhousie You ask where we got the information that the unit that charges the battery off the solar panel had failed.We did take the time to  go back and find one of the sources, there was others also that said there was some type of failure in the powers system of the station.
https://chinaspacereport.com/2016/09/30/tiangong-1-brought-down-by-dysfunctional-battery-charger/
If we are going to be made to give citation for everything we post because other may disagree then it should be require for all posting.
Lastly we personally hope we are dead wrong about what we believe but do not believe that is the case and are more than willing to eat our heaping helping of cold crow and that Cristiano is spot on in their claim that China has control of the station.  Let's see what happens  we will have a pretty good idea soon enough!

Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #854 on: 02/20/2018 07:33 pm »
One more source of the power failure on Tiangong 1.
Quote
The space module also carries a number of silver-zinc batteries in its service module, which can provide emergency power for about 6 hours in case of failure of the solar arrays. However, without a functioning batter charger to recharge, these batteries eventually ran out. Without power supply, the space module lost all communications and telemetry transmissions with the earth, so the ground control could no longer to command the space module for a controlled re-entry.
http://sinodefence.com/tiangong-1/

Offline Lar

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #855 on: 02/21/2018 01:15 am »
(mod) Maybe less sarcasm would be helpful. No, no maybe about it.
Modified to clarify that I was speaking as a moderator.

Glad that you have valuable info to share, please keep sharing it, but stick to factual stuff, the conclusions that something is amiss with official reporting can be drawn by the reader.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #856 on: 02/22/2018 03:16 pm »
Zero evidence there has been any kind of  intentional orbital changes of Tiangong 1. In addition have check with and look for any radio traffic off  Tiangong 1 that Radio Satellite  Tracker community has observed which they had observed since launch in 2011 and  observed into early 2016 but no such traffic after early 2016 has been reported or observed.  Would like to hear a  cogent critical analysis of why such radio traffic is no longer being observed since it was observed up until early 2016!
 Here is a graphic representation of Tiangong 1 orbit off of Calsky.
Claims of Tiangong 1 being operational and claims of intentional attitude change of Tiangong 1 are not credible or factual!

Offline Cristiano

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Re: LIVE: TianGong-1 JSLC CZ-2F (T1) launch September 29, 2011
« Reply #857 on: 02/22/2018 03:36 pm »
Here is a graphic representation of Tiangong 1 orbit off of Calsky.
Claims of Tiangong 1 being operational and claims of intentional attitude change of Tiangong 1 are not credible or factual!

The graphs you posted say absolutely nothing about attitude change; you should use a much smaller time scale as I did in reply #835.
« Last Edit: 03/02/2018 10:27 pm by Cristiano »

Offline Thomas Dorman

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Cristiano
You are no correct  change in attitude would show up in changes of Perigee and  Apogee attitude and in period of the orbit! Which the graph we post does show this information.
In addition you like to use the ISS so here is the graphic representation of  of the ISS from Calsky which clearly shows in intentional attitude changes in the graphic representation!

Offline Thomas Dorman

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Cristiano
In addition can you show us where you took into account in your calculations any gravitational anomalies or atmospheric effect on the station? Since  we are only allowed to post on factual information here can you show where you made such adjustments to your data In addition you are aware the TLE data from space track does have a small degree of margin of error, you are aware of this fact right?

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