Total Members Voted: 320
Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 pm
In the extended interview with Gwynne Shotwell, on the CBS This Morning podcast, she says SpaceX are aiming for 20 - 24 launches this year. Edit: I should have added she then said "and then increase may be 50% annually"
"Mr. Musk targeted 27 launches for this year despite having never managed more than eight in a year. By 2019, he projected SpaceX will launch 52, or one a week, according to the documents."
I won't officially vote until near the poll-closing date in mid-January but I'm currently leaning towards ~16 launches next year. My rationale is that they'll be able to launch about twice per month now that they have two east-coast pads (39A and 40) and they'll spend a total of ~4 months with all launches on hold investigating ~1 significant anomaly and ~1 loss of vehicle. Therefore I expect (12 - 4) * 2 = 16 launches. Note that 1 LOV in 16 launches is a 94% success rate, which is about average for commercially-competitive launch vehicles these days.
In the extended interview with Gwynne Shotwell, on the CBS This Morning podcast, she says SpaceX are aiming for 20 - 24 launches this year.
I voted 13. Voted 11 last year, and they got 8 (almost 9) and then AMOS 6. Without failure, they likely would've gotten 12 or 13.SpaceX hopes for 1 flight every two weeks. That's 26 per year and has over 30 on the manifest. 13 is half of 26.If I count last year as 9, then assume 50% growth, that's 13.5. If I assume 8, then it's 12.I think they most likely won't have a failure this year in which case is guess 15-16 launches. But there's a chance something will go wrong, so I'm pulling back to 13.