Much of the talk here has been based around NASA Mars mission proposals or SpaceX Mars mission proposals. But it seems to me that the most likely outcome will be a Congress sponsored NASA led program to send the first humans to Mars that uses Starship.So what are the most likely add-ons and requirements that NASA might call for in the conops? And yes I know it will appear like heresy to the SpaceX purists, but if NASA is the customer and there’s a lot of money involved I would have thought Musk would bend over backwards to accommodate. And if SpaceX charge a reasonable price they would probably be money to spare for knobs bells and whistles to help improve safety and let the pork flow.As an example Orion capsule for Earth return? A specific human Landing system, a cargo landing system and a Mars transfer habitat some using Starship some perhaps not? A mandatory nuclear power unit? A requirement that the return vehicle does not rely on ISRU re-tanking?
Quote from: Slarty1080 on 11/13/2021 02:33 pmMuch of the talk here has been based around NASA Mars mission proposals or SpaceX Mars mission proposals. But it seems to me that the most likely outcome will be a Congress sponsored NASA led program to send the first humans to Mars that uses Starship.So what are the most likely add-ons and requirements that NASA might call for in the conops? And yes I know it will appear like heresy to the SpaceX purists, but if NASA is the customer and there’s a lot of money involved I would have thought Musk would bend over backwards to accommodate. And if SpaceX charge a reasonable price they would probably be money to spare for knobs bells and whistles to help improve safety and let the pork flow.As an example Orion capsule for Earth return? A specific human Landing system, a cargo landing system and a Mars transfer habitat some using Starship some perhaps not? A mandatory nuclear power unit? A requirement that the return vehicle does not rely on ISRU re-tanking? There is a lot of distance between NASA’s view of “safe” conops and the SX vision of starship conops. That being said there’s a lot *less* distance between those two things then there was, say two years ago. The nasa HLS contract will go along way to qualify starship One of the biggest gaps right now is starship performing entry, descent and landing — both on Earth and on Mars. NASA making mostly full use of starship to Mars really needs NASA to qualify starship EDL. The fastest best way for this to occur is for SX to fly a bunch of successful landings on Mars and Earth. Until that occurs NASA Mars conops with starship would be really kind of not greatThat being said I kind of agree with your premise that NASA funding the very first human landing on Mars is a fairly compelling political concept. The interesting dynamic here is that SpaceX is probably not interested in being delayed with today’s typical NASA requirements, at least for mars missions, assuming that they can fully fund the effort If I predict today, I would say that NASA will mostly use SpaceX’s conops to get to Mars. I really like Zubrin’s idea of having two vehicles on the surface at the same point, at the same time. This redundancy is a necessary element for safer Mars missions. I think starship can add the ability to wildly increase the margins of extra materials that can be brought to Mars, therefore increasing the chance of a successful mission. Conops should be constructed to make use of these very large mass margins
Conops changes I think that is likely for a NASA Mars mission using Starship:
1. Return doesn't rely on ISRU: I think this is pretty much a certainty. But it's fairly easy to accommodate using Starship, just need to add LMO refueling.
2. Nuclear surface power: This would be in addition to SpaceX's own solar surface power, mainly as redundant backup for life support.
3. Separate surface habitat: This would be in addition to SpaceX's own habitat that is built as part of Starship, also used as redundant backup.
4. Launch/Landing on Earth: May use Commercial Crew vehicle for this in order to get around certifying Starship for human launch/landing on Earth.
Conops changes I think that is likely for a NASA Mars mission using Starship:1. Return doesn't rely on ISRU: I think this is pretty much a certainty. But it's fairly easy to accommodate using Starship, just need to add LMO refueling. 3. Separate surface habitat: This would be in addition to SpaceX's own habitat that is built as part of Starship, also used as redundant backup.
Quote from: su27k on 11/14/2021 04:56 amConops changes I think that is likely for a NASA Mars mission using Starship:1. Return doesn't rely on ISRU: I think this is pretty much a certainty. But it's fairly easy to accommodate using Starship, just need to add LMO refueling. 3. Separate surface habitat: This would be in addition to SpaceX's own habitat that is built as part of Starship, also used as redundant backup.My guess: anything they think they need on the surface will be landed on an uncrewed early misson. They will not send the crewed mission until this stuff in already in place and known to be functioning. This can include one or more landed Starships for use as backup habitat. It can also include a LOX plant that will already be storing LOX.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/14/2021 05:44 amQuote from: su27k on 11/14/2021 04:56 amConops changes I think that is likely for a NASA Mars mission using Starship:1. Return doesn't rely on ISRU: I think this is pretty much a certainty. But it's fairly easy to accommodate using Starship, just need to add LMO refueling. 3. Separate surface habitat: This would be in addition to SpaceX's own habitat that is built as part of Starship, also used as redundant backup.My guess: anything they think they need on the surface will be landed on an uncrewed early misson. They will not send the crewed mission until this stuff in already in place and known to be functioning. This can include one or more landed Starships for use as backup habitat. It can also include a LOX plant that will already be storing LOX.I would tend to agree, although I assume NASA would want one of those items that is "already in place and known to be functioning", to be a fully tanked Starship? The reason I ask is that I can see a lot of complications if there is any thought of any conops involving propellant transfer between vehicles on Mars given how far appart they would probably need to land initially. So ISTM the LOX plant would need to be on the returning Starship together with imported methane. But maybe the solar power could be landed separately and a cable run across?
There isn’t going to be NASA Mars Mission
Quote from: Jim on 11/14/2021 01:11 pmThere isn’t going to be NASA Mars MissionNot with SpaceX, anywayElon Musk has made it clear that the initial model for his Mars Colonisation effort will be settlers, not visitors. A quick (less than three years, say) or indeed any return to Earth is not a necessary part of the deal.Elon's conceptual model seems to me to be more like 16th/early 17th century pioneers going to North America, or early 19th century colonists going to New Zealand, not that of early 20th century expeditions to Antarctica."I hope to die on Mars, just not on arrival"This is the complete opposite of NASA's way of doing things
However, as an organization that is part of the United States government, I think there will be legal issues with trying to setup a government-backed Mars colony,
A quick (less than three years, say) or indeed any return to Earth is not a necessary part of the deal.
With Artemis missions, NASA will land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon, using innovative technologies to explore more of the lunar surface than ever before. We will collaborate with commercial and international partners and establish the first long-term presence on the Moon. Then, we will use what we learn on and around the Moon to take the next giant leap: sending the first astronauts to Mars.