what if Columbia accident hadn't happened?

[STS-85]

I know at the time of Columbia's accident, there was crews named for many future flights - I believe STS-120 in Feb '04 was as far out as had been planned.
Does anyone remember, assuming Columbia hadn't been lost, what the plan was? Was there an "end game" for the shuttle... STS-?? or was it sort of assumed that they'd just keep flying for many many years?

[Eric Hedman]

The Orbital Space Plane program had started early development stages.  It was to take over ISS crew rotation and light cargo transport.

https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/background/facts/ospfacts.html

[Svetoslav]

I know at the time of Columbia's accident, there was crews named for many future flights - I believe STS-120 in Feb '04 was as far out as had been planned.
Does anyone remember, assuming Columbia hadn't been lost, what the plan was? Was there an "end game" for the shuttle... STS-?? or was it sort of assumed that they'd just keep flying for many many years?

I remember some publications that they planned to keep the Space Shuttle flying to 2020... as for Endeavour, the youngest one, even beyond that.

Can someone confirm?

[Eric Hedman]

I know at the time of Columbia's accident, there was crews named for many future flights - I believe STS-120 in Feb '04 was as far out as had been planned.
Does anyone remember, assuming Columbia hadn't been lost, what the plan was? Was there an "end game" for the shuttle... STS-?? or was it sort of assumed that they'd just keep flying for many many years?

I remember some publications that they planned to keep the Space Shuttle flying to 2020... as for Endeavour, the youngest one, even beyond that.

Can someone confirm?

There is no citation of the source, but in the Wikipedia page for the Orbital Space Plane and the Crew exploration Vehicle, it said the plan was to fly the Shuttle to the 2030s.  I don't completely trust my memory, but I think that was what NASA was saying before the the Columbia accident.

[libra]

There was a plan to fly the Shuttle to 2020. 2030 I don't know.

OSP and NASA would remain stuck with wings, wings, wings - capsule would have zero chance of happening.

Constellation, COTS, would not happen.

Musk started SpaceX in May 2002 after a Mars Society conference exactly a year earlier, so SpaceX would still happen. Except they might go bankrupt in 2008 without COTS. Taking Musk and Tesla with them ?

Shuttle would keep flying past 2010 since COTS would not happen: the ISS main cargo system would be the MPLMs in the payload bay. Plus Progress, ATV and HTV - but no Cygnus, Dragon(s), CTS-100 and DreamChaser.

No idea what would happen to the OSP, but considering the X-33, X-34, X-38 and what's happening with Orion presently, it would probably be cancelled... and the Shuttle would keep flying.

Basically it is 2008 over and over, for many, many years.

(with perfect hindsight, we know the ISS is supposed to last until 2028, so we can guess the Shuttle would fly until that date. It boils down to: as long as the ISS is up there, the Shuttle keeps flying, as Shuttle and Station were linked together in 1972 and 1984.
Probabilities says that another Shuttle accident can't be avoided sooner or later, so 7 different astronauts dies sometime between 2003 and 2028. 25 years (or 42 since STS-51L) is plenty of time enough for the odds to catch up.
Also the roots of Columbia disaster harck back to the late 90's Goldin era, when Shuttle budget was cut by 20%. And since Goldin was there since 1992... also his management style was too brutal with shoestring budgets forcing to cut safety corners).

[Svetoslav]

At long last, I found what you needed.

Here's the document from 2002:

https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/9123main_2020_assessment.pdf

It's quite an interesting read. They've been thinking about extension to 2020 and maybe even beyond as a crew/cargo vehicle, with OSP gradually taking over.

[Vahe231991]

A list of Space Shuttle missions planned but delayed or canceled due to the Columbia accident is found at this link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canceled_Space_Shuttle_missions#Canceled_due_to_the_Columbia_disaster

If the Columbia accident hadn't occurred, the Space Shuttle would have flown over 140 missions instead of 135, and it might have been retired in 2010 rather than 2011.

[tyrred]

If Columbia incident had not happened on that particular flight, is it not reasonable to surmise a similar incident would have occurred on a later flight?

[mistergoblin]

Possibly, but that same turn of events could have happened at any time prior as well.

[Redclaws]

If Columbia incident had not happened on that particular flight, is it not reasonable to surmise a similar incident would have occurred on a later flight?

Why?  Shuttle flights weren't infinite, and it took over a hundred for the Columbia disaster to occur.  Presence of risk does not force incidence of event.

[AS_501]

I think there was a plan to replace the APU-powered aerosurfaces with an electrically-actuated system.  With such a major project, one would assume the plan to keep the shuttles flying for some time to come.

[libra]

If Columbia incident had not happened on that particular flight, is it not reasonable to surmise a similar incident would have occurred on a later flight?

Why?  Shuttle flights weren't infinite, and it took over a hundred for the Columbia disaster to occur.  Presence of risk does not force incidence of event.

STS-27 incident was rather frightening in retrospect.