USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6 - Awarded 2019-02-19

[Newton_V]

Well, I guessed L-85 wrong.  But got others right.

Care to explain your reasoning?

I'd like to, but can't.
I think most people figured after the 2nd SBIRS was added, they were going as a pair.  So there's 2 of the 3 (assuming the split would be 50/50) to one provider. 
I guessed there was a small chance, 20% maybe, that 4 launches would go to ULA.

[scr00chy]

SpaceX:
NROL-85 (LEO 63 Degree, by Dec 2021)
NROL-87 (SSO, by Dec 2021)
AFSPC-44 (Inclined GEO, by Feb 2021)

So that's 2 Falcon 9's from Vandenberg and a Falcon Heavy from KSC?

Sorry if it's obvious but how do you know NROL-85 will launch from Vandy?

[gongora]

SpaceX:
NROL-85 (LEO 63 Degree, by Dec 2021)
NROL-87 (SSO, by Dec 2021)
AFSPC-44 (Inclined GEO, by Feb 2021)

So that's 2 Falcon 9's from Vandenberg and a Falcon Heavy from KSC?

Sorry if it's obvious but how do you know NROL-85 will launch from Vandy?

I'm assuming based on the inclination.  That's a higher inclination than you would normally see launched from the Florida pads.

[rockets4life97]

ULA:
SILENTBARKER (NROL-107) (GEO, March 2022)
SBIRS GEO-5 (GTO, March 2021)

Based on the price, it looks like this must be 3 Atlas5s?

[PM3]

ULA:
SILENTBARKER (NROL-107) (GEO, March 2022)
SBIRS GEO-5 (GTO, March 2021)

Based on the price, it looks like this must be 3 Atlas5s?

Spacenews wrote that the "heavier ones" (i.e. AFSPC-44 and Silentbarker) would go on a Delta IV. Both launch to GTO and are too heavy for the Falcon 9 ... Atlas is only slightly more capable there.

[rockets4life97]

ULA:
SILENTBARKER (NROL-107) (GEO, March 2022)
SBIRS GEO-5 (GTO, March 2021)

Based on the price, it looks like this must be 3 Atlas5s?

Spacenews wrote that the "heavier ones" (i.e. AFSPC-44 and Silentbarker) would go on a Delta IV. Both launch to GTO and are too heavy for the Falcon 9 ... Atlas is only slightly more capable there.

So, SpaceX: 1 FalconHeavy and 2 Falcon9
ULA: 1 DeltaIV Heavy and 2 Atlas 5s

Seems evenly divided (except for cost).

[Lars-J]

SpaceX:
NROL-85 (LEO 63 Degree, by Dec 2021)
NROL-87 (SSO, by Dec 2021)
AFSPC-44 (Inclined GEO, by Feb 2021)

So that's 2 Falcon 9's from Vandenberg and a Falcon Heavy from KSC?

Sorry if it's obvious but how do you know NROL-85 will launch from Vandy?

I'm assuming based on the inclination.  That's a higher inclination than you would normally see launched from the Florida pads.

According to SpaceNews: https://spacenews.com/air-force-awards-739-million-in-launch-contracts-to-ula-and-spacex/

- NROL-85 will launch in fiscal year 2021 from the Eastern Range.
- NROL-87 will launch in fiscal year 2021 from the Western Range
- AFSPC-44 will launch in fiscal year 2021 from the Eastern Range

So two from KSC/CCAFS, one from VAFB for SpaceX.

[gongora]

http://spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=53706

Air Force awards $739 million launch service contracts
Press Release From: Los Angeles Air Force Base
Posted: Tuesday, February 19, 2019

The United States Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC), in partnership with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), awarded two Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) launch service contracts today.

 Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) has been awarded a $297 million firm-fixed-price contract, for launch services to deliver AFSPC-44, NROL-85, and NROL-87 to the intended orbit. United Launch Alliance (ULA) has been awarded a $441.76 million firm-fixed-price contract, for launch services to deliver SBIRS GEO-5, SBIRS GEO-6, and SILENTBARKER to the intended orbit.

 Both contracts provide the U.S. Government with a total launch solution for these missions, which includes launch vehicle production, mission integration, launch operations, and spaceflight certification. 

“The competitive award of these EELV launch service contracts directly supports SMC’s mission of delivering resilient and affordable space capabilities to our Nation while maintaining assured access to space” said Lt. Gen. John Thompson, SMC Commander, and Program Executive Officer for Space. “Phase 1A continues to enable the space enterprise to respond to the rapidly evolving operating environment.” 

This is the sixth competition under the current Phase 1A procurement strategy. These launch service contract awards strike a balance between meeting operational needs and lowering launch costs through reintroducing competition for National Security Space missions.

§  NROL-85 will launch in FY2021 from the Eastern Range.
§  NROL-87 will launch in FY2021 from the Western Range
§  SILENTBARKER will launch in FY2022 from the Eastern Range
§  SBIRS GEO-5 will launch in FY2021 from the Eastern Range
§  SBIRS GEO-6 is an option on the ULA contract with a possible launch in FY2022 from the Eastern Range
§  AFSPC-44 will launch in FY2021 from the Eastern Range

The Space and Missile Systems Center, located at Los Angeles Air Force Base in El Segundo, California, is Air Force Space Command's center of excellence for acquiring and developing military space systems. Its portfolio includes the Global Positioning System, military satellite communications, defense meteorological satellites, space launch and range systems, satellite control networks, space-based infrared systems, and space situational awareness capabilities.

[gongora]

Based on the price, it looks like this must be 3 Atlas5s?

Spacenews wrote that the "heavier ones" (i.e. AFSPC-44 and Silentbarker) would go on a Delta IV. Both launch to GTO and are too heavy for the Falcon 9 ... Atlas is only slightly more capable there.

The Space News article noted that ULA can bid Delta IV for heavier satellites, but it didn't actually say that any of these payloads required Delta IV.  Atlas V is fairly capable to GEO, it just can't take the largest payloads.

[PM3]

ULA has confirmed that all three will launch on Atlas.

https://www.ulalaunch.com/about/news/2019/02/20/united-launch-alliance-wins-competitive-contract-award-to-launch-three-national-security-space-missions-for-the-department-of-defense

United Launch Alliance Wins Competitive Contract Award to Launch Three National Security Space Missions for the Department of Defense

Centennial, Colo., Feb. 19, 2019 – The United States Air Force announced today that United Launch Alliance (ULA) was awarded a firm, fixed-price contract to launch three missions on the company’s Atlas V rocket. This contract resulted from a competitive award under the Air Force’s Phase 1A procurement strategy.

“ULA is honored to be selected to launch three missions in this procurement block buy,” said Tory Bruno, ULA’s president and CEO. “ULA’s commercially developed Atlas V rocket has been a workhorse for national security, science and commercial missions since 2002, launching 79 missions with 100 percent mission success and builds on the heritage of more than 600 Atlas program launches.” 

The three missions include SILENTBARKER, Space-Based Infrared System Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (SBIRS GEO)-5 and SBIRS GEO-6. All will launch from Space Launch Complex-41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. SBIRS GEO-5 is expected to be the first mission to launch in March 2021.

“The Atlas V has delivered sensitive and essential missions including classified defense systems, planetary exploration spacecraft and key commercial assets with precise orbital accuracy,” said Bruno. “We draw on that experience as we transition to our next-generation Vulcan Centaur launch vehicle, designed to meet or exceed the needs of our Air Force customer so we can continue to provide reliable, on-time, assured access to space well into the future.”

With more than a century of combined heritage, United Launch Alliance is the world's most experienced and reliable launch service provider. ULA has successfully delivered 132 missions to orbit that provide Earth observation capabilities, enable global communications, unlock the mysteries of our solar system and support life-saving technology.

[rockets4life97]

ULA has confirmed that all three will launch on Atlas.

My math isn't failing me! I didn't think you could get a Delta IV Heavy and 2 Atlas 5s for that price.