Vega Evolution Discussion Thread

[daedalus1]

Falcon 9

[TrevorMonty]

Falcon 9

Firefly Alpha maybe but it would need a few more successful missions.

[jsanders2020]

While this morning's launch will result in a delay to Arianespace's development of the Vega - surely it can't be classed as a "disaster" as one of NSF's contributors tweeted this morning. Ariane Six will be on line soon and they will resolve the Vega issues.

Not the first time this particular contributor appears to have an agenda 0f anti ESA/Arianespace rhetoric.

[daedalus1]

Ariane 6 is at least a year away from 1st launch.

[TrevorMonty]

While this morning's launch will result in a delay to Arianespace's development of the Vega - surely it can't be classed as a "disaster" as one of NSF's contributors tweeted this morning. Ariane Six will be on line soon and they will resolve the Vega issues.

Not the first time this particular contributor appears to have an agenda 0f anti ESA/Arianespace rhetoric.

Its not anti Arianespace just facts that F9R, LauncherOne and Electron are about it for operational Western LVs with spare capacity in next 6-12months.

[zubenelgenubi]

Given the VV22 Vega C launch failure apparently was entirely caused by the failure of the Zefiro-40 second stage, would it be possible to use the two remaining Vega LVs during the investigation and remediation, as they use Zefiro-23 second stages?

Either launching the assigned Vega payloads as-is, or substituting priority payloads that can still be launched by Vega?

[oomrubl]

While this morning's launch will result in a delay to Arianespace's development of the Vega - surely it can't be classed as a "disaster" as one of NSF's contributors tweeted this morning. Ariane Six will be on line soon and they will resolve the Vega issues.

Not the first time this particular contributor appears to have an agenda 0f anti ESA/Arianespace rhetoric.

Its not anti Arianespace just facts that F9R, LauncherOne and Electron are about it for operational Western LVs with spare capacity in next 6-12months.

Well, the 'are about to" falls in the same timeframe as corrections to Zefiro Z40. IMHO of course 

[cpushack]

Given the VV22 Vega C launch failure apparently was entirely caused by the failure of the Zefiro-40 second stage, would it be possible to use the two remaining Vega LVs during the investigation and remediation, as they use Zefiro-23 second stages?

Either launching the assigned Vega payloads as-is, or substituting priority payloads that can still be launched by Vega?

Perhaps possible, but do we know there wasn't a problem with the 3rd or 4th stage? 3rd (Zefiro 9) is same as before but the 4th is new for Vega-C too

[GWR64]

Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

[russianhalo117]

Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

Yes it is the EUSPA/ESA (funding from both plus EC, involved partner countries and internal sources) supported replacement for the Soviet/Ukrainian RD-843 engine family.

[TheKutKu]

Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

What is that reusable upper stage? I've seen it mentionned many times over the past several months, but what is it exactly?

[Asteroza]

Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

What is that reusable upper stage? I've seen it mentionned many times over the past several months, but what is it exactly?

Probably not SUSIE?

[TheKutKu]

Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

What is that reusable upper stage? I've seen it mentionned many times over the past several months, but what is it exactly?

Probably not SUSIE?

Definitely not, SUSIE is an ArianeGroup proposal while this upper stage is an Avio-led international project that  got funding at the ministerial. 

There was a render of it in the December 2022 Avio update, doesn’t give much Information beside what looks like a M10 engine.

About it, last year Andrew Parsonson had to say:

"As a result, the agency plan to propose an initiative to develop a reusable upper stage at its ministerial-level council meeting later this year. The initiative will examine the reusability of an upper stage in two distinct roles: as a launch vehicle asset that would be recovered and then reused, and as an in-orbit transfer/maintenance vehicle that could be utilised for a variety of missions"

https://europeanspaceflight.substack.com/p/europe-prepares-for-a-reusable-future-1201427

I cannot find more information about it, I saw some German DLR paper studying a Starship-like reusable  upper stage For A6 and Vega-E purpose but I seriously doubt it is any related to it.

[GWR64]

Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

What is that reusable upper stage? I've seen it mentionned many times over the past several months, but what is it exactly?

There's a small picture on page 8 but no explanation for it.
https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230306-Avio-FY-2022-results_vDEF_1_20230314_102752.pdf
[March 14]

[TheKutKu]

Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

What is that reusable upper stage? I've seen it mentionned many times over the past several months, but what is it exactly?

There's a small picture on page 8 but no explanation for it.
https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230306-Avio-FY-2022-results_vDEF_1_20230314_102752.pdf
[March 14]

Nice find!
It's actually a bit coherent with the paper I mentionned
https://elib.dlr.de/188196/1/2.01.03.Hantz_paper.pdf

[Rik ISS-fan]

The Avio FY2022 results slidedeck contains the statement on Page 9 & 23; that Vega (C/E) launch manifest is full until 2027.
AFAIK ESA hasn't ordered launches for all Copernicus satellites that need to be launched the in the coming 5 years.
So competitors ISAR aerospace and RFA one have some launches to 

The Vega STS ([7-9x M10] first stage + VUS [M10] second stage) is a light ~1000kg payload to SSO 700km from ELV) could add launch capability. But I think the development of a booster with the diameter of Z40, that could replace the P120C(+) on Vega E (or already C) could be available sooner. This P36-72 could be quite similar to NGIS Castor 120.
Vega E would contain P120C(+)-Z40-VUS, the lighter version would contain ~P50-Z40-VUS.
I see two additional benefits. First if they develop this stage fast, they possibly already could do static firing test this year. Possibly this adds additional test points for the new Z40 throat insert supplied by ArianeGroup.
Secondly, on the long therm, this might enable the phaseout op P120C(+). Because ArianeGroup can sustain it's solid motor production capability with P50 and Z40 production work.
My idea to replace P120C(+) would be combining the results of STS & HTE (M60). Thus a reusable first stage with 7 to 9 M60 engines. ArianeGroup is proposing the THEMIS (3x Prometheus) stage for this. But I would prefer the stage from Avio, it could be manufactured with the P120C (Ø3.4m) casing tooling in Italy.
I think ArianeGroup (France) should use the LLPM tooling (Ø5.4m) for LLPM with 1x Vulcain 2.1; 1 or 2x Prometheus Hydrogen and / or 7 to 9x Prometheus Methane.

I think STS in the first stage only configuration is a way better reusable stage demonstrator then Themis. Possibly a reduced length version with only 5 engines could also serve as the European version of Blue Origin New Shepperd (scientific flights mostly uncrewed).
But I don't like the fact that this 100% state funded launcher; is competing with ISAR aerospace Spectrum and RFA One that are privately funded. Possibly we are already witnessing the downside of the unfair competition.

I was surprised by the fact that Avio is already doing detailed studies on how to make a fully reusable launcher (with the HTE/M60 and M10 engines).