Will Humans Go to Mars before 2033?

[sdsds]

For this topic "going to Mars" can be interpreted fairly liberally: if a living human gets within a few thousand kilometers of the Martian surface it's fair to say they "went to Mars." The choice of "before 2033" is largely due to the orbital mechanics; April of 2033 is the next particularly favorable opportunity while the opportunities in 2028 and 2030 are more challenging.

It's not a poll; just a simple 'yes or no' question and an opportunity to share thoughts on the subject. (Though if someone wants to turn it into a poll that's fine.)

[Oli]

No.

I don't see any indication that SpaceX is developing surface infrastructure. There's no time.

Even 2033 is very unlikely given Trump is in power until 2028.

Edit: Ah you meant flyby or orbit, sorry. I'm not sure Musk is interested in that.

[SweetWater]

I would say no, it's too short a timeframe for development and testing of the needed technology to do it safely.

While not specifically posed as such in the question, effectively the only group of people who might be doing this in 2033 would be SpaceX on a Starship. If, say China decided tomorrow that they really wanted to send a crew on some sort of free-return trajectory around Mars in 2033, could they pull it off? Maybe, I'd say even probably, if probably is a 51% chance, but there's no indication that they have any interest in doing that. NASA doesn't have the inclination or the resources to, and while Bezos certainly has the financial resources and interest in space, he's never show specific interest in Mars.

SpaceX certainly has the will and the resources, but I do not believe they have the time. There are 3 launch windows (2026, 2028/29, and 2031) to use for testing between now and 2033. The Starship testing program clearly has more teething issues than SpaceX expected it to. We can assume they've been working on propellant transfer and long-term storage of LOX/Methane behind the scenes, but we don't really have any idea what those solutions will be, and it is unrealistic to expect them to work perfectly the first time, only because they're new and no one has really tried to do that before. SpaceX needs good relationships with federal agencies like NASA, the FAA, and the EPA to keep up their pace of testing, and I think that just became much less of a sure thing.

One problem with Mars launch windows is that it's hard to be hardware rich and to test, break things, and test again if you can only launch every 26 months. I don't see an uncrewed Starship going to Mars in 2026. 2028/29 is a possibility, but I don't see such a test as likely to be completely successful. Even if a test in 2031 is successful, are people going to go in the very next launch window? Maybe, but Elon has never shown any interest in flybys, and 2033 is WAY too early to have EDL issues resolved, ISRU cracked, etc.

That said, if Elon is still in charge of SpaceX in 2033, maybe his feelings on that count will be different when he is on the other side of 60.

[spacenut]

I think they can.  NASA would have to change to help support this.  Once SpaceX can get Starship operational, then anything is possible. 

Things to consider.
1) Fuel depot and fuel transfer in space
2) Cargo Starship that can deliver cargo to Mars.
3) Sabatier equipment for making fuel
4) Ice mining equipment for water needed to make fuel
5) Or an orbital fuel depot at Mars
6) Communication satellites around Mars
7) Habitats and rovers
Solar panels, a lot of them
9) Maybe a fuel depot at LL1 or LL2 for topping off of Starships headed to Mars
10) NASA involvement to help develop the above equipment. 
11) Tanker Starships to deliver fuel to depots.
12) Starlink Starships to finish Starlink constellation for higher internet speed and more Starlink customers.

All of the above is waiting on operational Starships. 

[sdsds]

[...] effectively the only group of people who might be doing this in 2033 would be SpaceX on a Starship.

Thanks for your thoughtful response! (I did consider limiting the discussion to crewed Starship, and then decided doing so would put unnecessary limits on the discussion.)

[...] it's too short a timeframe for development and testing of the needed technology to do it safely.
[...] That said, if Elon is still in charge of SpaceX in 2033, maybe his feelings on that count will be different when he is on the other side of 60.

Sending humans to Mars in 2031 would almost certainly require a change in the general attitude towards crewed spaceflight safety, and maybe specifically Musk would need to advocate for a "bolder and sooner" approach rather than a "safer but later" approach. At the recent SpaceX all-hands meeting Musk reportedly sounded ambitious:

My notes from the talk
[...]
  - Would send humans 2028 if 2026 is successful, goal of building infrastructure
    - Walks that back a few sentences later, maybe two windows worth of landings with Optimus instead of humans first
    - No humans in any of the rendered imagery for 2026 or 2028.

[Robotbeat]

Probably not but it can be done.

[JulesVerneATV]

Fuel depot and fuel transfer in space

people online believe China is currently testing something on Shijian-25, Shijian-21

[Robotbeat]

I don’t think the refueling itself is necessarily that hard. I think thermal management will take iteration, tho.

[Vultur]

*Before* 2033? Probably not. If Starship basically works*, I think 2033 is a very likely first landing date for humans, but 2031 is very unlikely.

 Nov-Dec 2026 is extremely ambitious to do anything at all, and if it's possible at all would probably be only a flyby. Given that, a 2029 cargo delivery would have to go smoothly first time for 2031 crew to be possible.

OTOH, in the mid term I'm more optimistic. A second OLM is coming along, and assuming they can fix the current problems (perhaps with v3) development may advance very rapidly. There's just not that much time before the 2026 synod, but 2029 is another question entirely.

I really don't expect propellant transfer per se to be in itself a big deal, once they get attitude control and a better RCS and reliability resolved.

Initial Mars tests (or cargo delivery that largely fails and becomes initial tests) 2029, serious cargo delivery 2031, would allow for crew 2033.

I do think the intent is to accept risks that NASA would consider completely unacceptable, like sending humans before the ISRU to return is fully set up.

*IE the program is not canceled or radically descoped to be e.g. just a super heavy Starlink launcher, and there's no really long stand down to redesign fundamentally

[AmigaClone]

NASA/ SpaceX I would say no chance at all.

China has a small chance - but the China's national leadership would need to be more committed to that idea than the US Government was to the idea of 'man on the moon before the end of the decade' in 1965.

[jstrotha0975]

Not at the rate the Starship project is currently going.

[Slarty1080]

It doesn't seem likely to me, although with so many moving parts that it is very hard to say for sure.

Hopefully they can crack the current structural problems this year sufficiently to allow them to make a start on refining the heat shield before the end of the year.

Next year should see Raptor 3 and Starship V3 introduced with different plumbing. If this all goes relatively smoothly(a big if) then Starship might become operational by the end of 2026 launching Starlink. At that point the launch cadence should start to slowly build and each launch should allow both Starlink deployment and Starship refinement.

With luck 2026 will also see the testing of orbital re-tanking. If this goes smoothly (a big if) then Starship might be ready for missions beyond LEO by 2027. That would leave enough time for an uncrewed Starship atmospheric test EDL possibly after deploying Starlink like sats into Mars orbit in the 2028/29.

If the 2028/29 atmospheric test works (another big if) they should be looking at a mock proof landing of Starship in crew configuration as well as testing deployments of ISRU, Solar etc etc.

If that goes as planned (if) then just may be 2033 could see the first crew to Mars.

But that plan would be the shortest possible time frame with a non zero probability of actually occurring. Realistically some of the ifs will give difficulties leading to 1-3 launch windows delay.

Then there are all the other things that have to be thrown into the mix. The machinations of the critters on the hill, changes of administration, Elon Musk's Health, Chinese activity etc etc. Fingers crossed.

 

[VSECOTSPE]

SpaceX is the only substantive and active game in town for H2M.  They’re going to need:

1) Working Starship to/from LEO.
2) Frequent, large-scale cryo propellant xfer.
3) Multi-year, large-scale cryo propellant storage.
4) Comms to/from Mars
5) PNT at Mars
6) EDL proven at Mars
7) Water ice at Mars
ISRU proven at Mars
9) Multi-year life support

Items 1-5 are needed before 6 can be tested.  Items 1-5 will not be ready by the launch window at the end of 2026, so we’re really looking at the window at the end of 2028 before Item 6 can be tested.

Realistically, SpaceX will need more than one bite at the EDL apple before Item 6 is checked off.  Assuming the late 2028 window gets used up on (and learning from) Mars EDL failures, that means the early 2031 window before work could begin at the Martian surface on items 7-8. 

Like with Mars EDL, realistically, finding Martian water ice is usable form and proving out propellant production will take more than one window.  If the 2031 window gets used up on water ice prospecting or  and propellant production failures and it’s only after the 2033 window that there’s tanks of CH4 waiting for the return leg, then the first crews won’t be sent to Mars until the mid-2035 window.

I think 2035 is a somewhat realistic, median estimate.  I think 2033 and earlier requires SpaceX to get Mars EDL or water ice prospecting/propellant production right within their first windows.  That seems unlikely and unrealistically optimistic.

Personally, I’m even a little more skeptical than that because of the lack of details and apparent work at SpaceX on items 4/5 and 7/8 to date (unless Musk has a secret evil villain volcano base where this work has been going on).  Putting StarLink sats in Mars orbit alone doesn’t provide a link to Earth.  And an Optimus robot walking on the Martian surface isn’t equipped to assay water ice or process propellant.  These are things where NASA experience and expertise could come in really handy so SpaceX doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel.  But with the Trump/Musk fallout, that working relationship will probably not be as close as it has been.  Taking that into account, I don’t think SpaceX will be in a position to send the first crews until the mid-2037 or late-2039 windows.

A decade to a decade-and-a-half still to go is my 2 cents.  FWIW...

[Coastal Ron]

Just doing a flyby of Mars in 2033 would require a "success oriented schedule", meaning most everything works from here on out. But as we've seen with the Starship test program, while they may be making progress, nothing has been close enough to perfect to think they have a clear path of progress ahead of them.

And so far SpaceX has only been able to focus on getting Starship to space, next they have to figure out how to survive reentry. And once they do that, then they have to figure out how to keep humans alive in space.

The Trump I Administration was lucky that SpaceX was already working on getting to Mars and was willing to support the return-to-Moon effort. SpaceX was lucky to have an additional source of funding, and maybe even some NASA support. Because without SpaceX it was unlikely that the Artemis program could have realistically landed humans on our Moon this decade - and it is still going to be a hard regardless.

Going to Mars with humans is a HUGE endeavor, and I'm quite happy SpaceX is doing it. But there are so many unknown unknowns, and I'm not sure SpaceX will be able to solve them quickly enough before 2033. Nothing against them, because they are likely the best positioned to attempt this, just that it is so darn hard.

My $0.02

[Robotbeat]

SpaceX is the only substantive and active game in town for H2M.  They’re going to need:

1) Working Starship to/from LEO.
2) Frequent, large-scale cryo propellant xfer.
3) Multi-year, large-scale cryo propellant storage.
4) Comms to/from Mars
5) PNT at Mars
6) EDL proven at Mars
7) Water ice at Mars
ISRU proven at Mars
9) Multi-year life support

Items 1-5 are needed before 6 can be tested.  Items 1-5 will not be ready by the launch window at the end of 2026, so we’re really looking at the window at the end of 2028 before Item 6 can be tested.

Realistically, SpaceX will need more than one bite at the EDL apple before Item 6 is checked off.  Assuming the late 2028 window gets used up on (and learning from) Mars EDL failures, that means the early 2031 window before work could begin at the Martian surface on items 7-8. 

Like with Mars EDL, realistically, finding Martian water ice is usable form and proving out propellant production will take more than one window.  If the 2031 window gets used up on water ice prospecting or  and propellant production failures and it’s only after the 2033 window that there’s tanks of CH4 waiting for the return leg, then the first crews won’t be sent to Mars until the mid-2035 window.

I think 2035 is a somewhat realistic, median estimate.  I think 2033 and earlier requires SpaceX to get Mars EDL or water ice prospecting/propellant production right within their first windows.  That seems unlikely and unrealistically optimistic.

Personally, I’m even a little more skeptical than that because of the lack of details and apparent work at SpaceX on items 4/5 and 7/8 to date (unless Musk has a secret evil villain volcano base where this work has been going on).  Putting StarLink sats in Mars orbit alone doesn’t provide a link to Earth.  And an Optimus robot walking on the Martian surface isn’t equipped to assay water ice or process propellant.  These are things where NASA experience and expertise could come in really handy so SpaceX doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel.  But with the Trump/Musk fallout, that working relationship will probably not be as close as it has been.  Taking that into account, I don’t think SpaceX will be in a position to send the first crews until the mid-2037 or late-2039 windows.

A decade to a decade-and-a-half still to go is my 2 cents.  FWIW...

7 and 8 don’t have to be figured out before they go. There’s also a lot of overlap in these things. If you are storing hundreds of tons of liquid oxygen, that’s decades’ worth of oxygen for the crew. Just need regenerative CO2 scrubbing, which is pretty easy in comparison (and done all the time in submarines). Heck, 400t of oxygen, if you are really optimistic, can keep a crew of 12 alive without CO2 scrubbers for years operating open-loop (where you flush out a low pressure pure O2 environment to keep the CO2 below 1%, or have the crew breathe out through an exhaust)… although that’s probably not healthy or realistic. Better to just ship backup supplies of disposable CO2 scrubbers than rely on that.


Having insane mass margins brings a kind of resiliency that’s not often appreciated. Just 12t of lithium hydroxide scrubbers can scrub the CO2 for a crew of 12 for years, even though ISS or Shuttle or Orion based regenerative CO2 scrubbers are pretty easy. (And you can take advantage of all that active cooling power to do cryogenic CO2 scrubbing as well, if you want.)

[Robotbeat]

SpaceX already has a life support system for HLS which is based on the Dragon capsule’s life support system, I think. This is a very reliable system. No reason this can’t work for several years, as it uses pretty basic one time use scrubbers, etc.

[Robotbeat]

Note that SpacwX intends to use Starlink for Mars communications. Starlink can already do direct-to-cell, has some basic navigation and timing capability already, and SpaceX has also proposed a Starlink-based system to replace GPS. So I’d say PNT and communications are two of the things they’ve most been preparing for. No one has ever launched or operated anywhere close to as many satellites as SpaceX has, so I doubt this is the long pole.

I’m actually more concerned about landing on an unprepared site than I am about most things on that list. This is difficult to test and to make it safe enough for crew is very non-trivial. Surface cryo storage is also tough, but doable.

[VSECOTSPE]

7 and 8 don’t have to be figured out before they go.

Before the first crews go, the program needs tanks of LCH4 on the Martian surface for crew return options.  Even if the plan is to for everyone to have one-way tickets, there’s any number of unknowns and unknown unknowns that require a modicum of contingency planning.  A lot of those issues — human, environmental, certain kinds of system failures — can’t be dealt with via brute force mass and spares.  Being able to bring crews back is a great way to deal with a large range of contingencies.

SpaceX already has a life support system for HLS which is based on the Dragon capsule’s life support system, I think. This is a very reliable system. No reason this can’t work for several years, as it uses pretty basic one time use scrubbers, etc.

There’s differences in designing a system to last a few weeks or months versus a few years.  Even if you think you can use the former for the latter, you have to test for that duration in a relevant environment, which probably means a program culminating in an Apollo 7 type demo in Earth’s vicinity.  That can be done in parallel with the other steps above, so I didn’t put Item 9 on the critical path.

Even if that works and even with lots of mass to play with, dealing with unknown unknowns for that duration and at that distance probably necessitates dissimilarly redundant backup life support.  This paper, among others, gets into some of the important subtleties:

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20170010347/downloads/20170010347.pdf

Note that SpacwX intends to use Starlink for Mars communications.

StarLink has no interplanetary transmit/receive capability.  Lacks the gain, power, pointing, Earth ground stations, etc.  NASA DSN is nearly the only system/institution with that capability and experience. Doesn’t mean SpaceX can’t do it, but they have to work on it and unless that’s been happening off-stage out of the public eye, they’re not.

This is the central problem with the systems SpaceX needs for H2M other than Starship.  There’s a lot of handwaving about using SolarCity solar panels, StarLink satellites, Optimus and Tesla trucks, etc.  But there’s very little actual work going on to bring these or other systems forward, address the holes in their capabilities, adapt them to their Martian environments, integrate them, test them for the necessary durations, etc.  Again, maybe it’s all been happening at Musk’s secret volcano base and no one has told me.  But absent some evidence of this kind of work in parallel with Starship, SpaceX will either need to beg/borrow/steal from NASA (less likely since the Trump/Musk divorce) or add some modicum of years to the sched.

FWIW...

[Robotbeat]

SpaceX would likely use Starlink arrays, not Solar City. They’re making like hundreds of megawatts already. but I suppose you think the Starlink arrays on Starship HLS are also fake?

It’s also weird to just assume no thought has gone into using Starlinks, in spite of the fact they’re flexible systems, could trade distance for bitrate to keep positive link budget… and SpaceX has already used them for talking directly with Dragon and Starship, even in very challenging conditions. But sure, fine, let’s grant that.

It’s not a problem for SpaceX to use the DSN. The DSN is regularly used by other nations, including European spacecraft. This is not a problem. Focus on non-fake problems.

[Robotbeat]

7 and 8 don’t have to be figured out before they go.

Before the first crews go, the program needs tanks of LCH4 on the Martian surface for crew return options.  …

They don’t. Not if Mars surface cargo logistics has been proven so crews can be resupplied indefinitely and years of supplies are sent ahead of time.