Author Topic: SpaceX Dragon XL  (Read 407122 times)

Offline Phillipsturtles

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #560 on: 04/16/2021 08:29 am »
https://spacenews.com/nasa-delays-starting-contract-with-spacex-for-gateway-cargo-services/

"NASA, in a statement provided to SpaceNews April 14, said it has yet to formally authorize SpaceX to proceed on the Gateway Logistics Services contract because the agency is studying the overall schedule of the Artemis lunar exploration program, of which development and use of the Gateway is just one part."

Also we get confirmation that disposal of Dragon XL will be in a heliocentric orbit:

"NASA is interested in using the lunar Gateway for science, with experiments both mounted on its exterior and inside the modules. That includes, Contella said, the possibility of using the Dragon XL spacecraft for experiments once it departs the Gateway at the end of its resupply mission. The spacecraft will not return to Earth but instead be disposed in a heliocentric orbit."

Online yg1968

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #561 on: 04/17/2021 05:46 am »
NASA has committed to buy at least two Dragon XL missions (see below) as part of its contract with SpaceX. I wonder if NASA would be willing to replace those two Dragon XL missions with two cargo Starship missions. I don't know if that would be possible under the contract. 

The official RFP has been released today:
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-asks-american-companies-to-deliver-supplies-for-artemis-moon-missions

Quote
This solicitation is for a multi-award, firm-fixed price, indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract for 15 years, with a maximum $7 billion value. The guaranteed minimum value for any award is two missions.

NASA is also asking responders to address logistics spacecraft design, cargo mass capability, pressurized volume, power availability for payloads and, transit time to Gateway.

Following initial award, there may be future contract opportunities for new service providers to ensure capabilities remain competitive. If approved in advance by NASA, a commercial provider may also use a mission to deliver, remove and/or return non-NASA cargo as long as it does not interfere with the agency mission, furthering the development of a robust deep space economy.


Complete RFP can be found here: https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=fc4c9359483f1fa92e25e2425780e935&tab=core&_cview=1


A general update on Artemis in the press statement:
Quote
This solicitation is the latest in a line of work by the agency to accelerate its Moon to Mars exploration plans by working with American aerospace companies. NASA recently awarded a contract to Maxar Technologies to design, develop, launch and demonstrate the power and propulsion element by 2022. Negotiations are ongoing for development of the habitation and logistics outpost (HALO) module. The agency is also working on another draft solicitation for the integrated human landing system. A final solicitation will be released in the future.
« Last Edit: 04/17/2021 01:07 pm by yg1968 »

Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #562 on: 04/17/2021 07:07 pm »
NASA has committed to buy at least two Dragon XL missions (see below) as part of its contract with SpaceX. I wonder if NASA would be willing to replace those two Dragon XL missions with two cargo Starship missions. I don't know if that would be possible under the contract. 

The official RFP has been released today:
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-asks-american-companies-to-deliver-supplies-for-artemis-moon-missions

Quote
This solicitation is for a multi-award, firm-fixed price, indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract for 15 years, with a maximum $7 billion value. The guaranteed minimum value for any award is two missions.

NASA is also asking responders to address logistics spacecraft design, cargo mass capability, pressurized volume, power availability for payloads and, transit time to Gateway.

Following initial award, there may be future contract opportunities for new service providers to ensure capabilities remain competitive. If approved in advance by NASA, a commercial provider may also use a mission to deliver, remove and/or return non-NASA cargo as long as it does not interfere with the agency mission, furthering the development of a robust deep space economy.


Complete RFP can be found here: https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=fc4c9359483f1fa92e25e2425780e935&tab=core&_cview=1


A general update on Artemis in the press statement:
Quote
This solicitation is the latest in a line of work by the agency to accelerate its Moon to Mars exploration plans by working with American aerospace companies. NASA recently awarded a contract to Maxar Technologies to design, develop, launch and demonstrate the power and propulsion element by 2022. Negotiations are ongoing for development of the habitation and logistics outpost (HALO) module. The agency is also working on another draft solicitation for the integrated human landing system. A final solicitation will be released in the future.

Depending on how much work SpaceX has done on Dragon XL... I think SpaceX would like to bid SS against that contract. 
Didn't NASA say yesterday that they were reevaluating all systems including Gateway.   
NASA would have reopen the bidding to all.

Offline deadman1204

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #563 on: 04/18/2021 12:42 am »
No, starship is nothing like dragon XL.

Dragon XL is designed to be a functioning habitat for minimum of a year while a ton of science through out it. Most of starship is fuel tanks, and not designed to function for a year in space.

Online yg1968

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #564 on: 04/18/2021 01:06 am »
Well, it was mentionned yesterday that Starship is designed to loiter in NRHO at least 100 days, waiting for Orion to arrive. 

Offline JoerTex

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #565 on: 04/18/2021 03:25 pm »
No, starship is nothing like dragon XL.

Dragon XL is designed to be a functioning habitat for minimum of a year while a ton of science through out it. Most of starship is fuel tanks, and not designed to function for a year in space.

Starship is the Mars vehicle.  That trip is longer than a year.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #566 on: 04/18/2021 07:04 pm »
Well, it was mentionned yesterday that Starship is designed to loiter in NRHO at least 100 days, waiting for Orion to arrive.

I think that limitation is propellant boil off. 100 days after tanking they need to go to the Moon.

Offline butters

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #567 on: 04/19/2021 04:55 am »
A Starship cargo mission to NRHO is likely to cost SpaceX less than a Dragon XL mission. SpaceX can offer that to NASA at the same price.

The 100-day boiloff endurance is going to constrain the whole Artemis architecture, so there's very little value in having a logistics vehicle that can stick around longer. Lunar Starship will be limited to less than 100 days on the surface, and the initial design will be more limited than that. It may also require multiple refuelings to keep it alive between annual SLS/Orion missions.

Let's say each Artemis mission begins with launching and loading two accumulator tankers in LEO, then a Cargo Starship. One of the accumulator tankers refuels the Cargo Starship, then reenters and lands. The Cargo Starship and the other accumulator tanker depart for NRHO. The accumulator tanker refuels the Lunar Starship that been waiting patiently in NRHO and trying not to die.

With refueling complete, the crew launches on SLS, and Orion heads to NRHO. If Gateway is in the mix, Lunar Starship and Cargo Starship are both now docked to Gateway, and there's a third port open for Orion. Otherwise, Orion docks to Lunar Starship, crew transfers, Orion undocks (uncrewed), and the two Starships dock together. After the crew is done transferring cargo in the Lunar Starship, they undock and land on the Moon.

Here's where the Cargo Starship could be much more than a Dragon XXXXXL:

At the end of the surface mission, Lunar Starship returns to NRHO, and the crew can transfer return cargo into Cargo Starship, which then returns to Earth. Lunar Starship has much more upmass potential than NASA expected from HLS, and using Cargo Starship instead of Dragon XL would allow NASA to deliver all that fascinating lunar upmass to laboratories here on Earth.

That's the killer app. Dragon XL can't return any mass to Earth. Lunar Starship can't return any mass to Earth. Orion can't return very much mass to Earth. Cargo Starship can deliver and return an order of magnitude more cargo than Dragon XL. NASA would be silly not to take advantage of such a capability.
« Last Edit: 04/19/2021 05:35 am by butters »

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #568 on: 04/19/2021 05:48 am »
Can anyone think of a good reason not to replace this with a Cargo version of Starship?

Offline ehb

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #569 on: 04/19/2021 11:21 am »
Can anyone think of a good reason not to replace this with a Cargo version of Starship?
We do not know how long it will be until the SS system is proven reliable.
XL has less risk, proven launch system, Dragon derived.
« Last Edit: 04/19/2021 11:33 am by ehb »

Offline rakaydos

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #570 on: 04/19/2021 11:58 am »
Can anyone think of a good reason not to replace this with a Cargo version of Starship?
The limitations of legacy gateway components that were designed  well before Starship was a viable option.

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #571 on: 04/19/2021 05:16 pm »
Can anyone think of a good reason not to replace this with a Cargo version of Starship?
Mass and stress on the docking ports.

Offline spacenut

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #572 on: 04/19/2021 05:26 pm »
Once SpaceX nails the Starship landings, it is all downhill for Starship after that.  Build and go.

Offline hektor

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #573 on: 04/19/2021 05:28 pm »
Well routine CH4 and LOx refueling in LEO will be interesting as well.

Offline dror

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #574 on: 04/19/2021 05:31 pm »
Can anyone think of a good reason not to replace this with a Cargo version of Starship?
Hypergols can enable a longer stay.

Edit: cut
« Last Edit: 04/19/2021 08:36 pm by dror »
Space is hard immensely complex and high risk !

Offline dror

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #575 on: 04/19/2021 05:36 pm »
A Starship cargo mission to NRHO is likely to cost SpaceX less than a Dragon XL mission. SpaceX can offer that to NASA at the same price.

The 100-day boiloff endurance is going to constrain the whole Artemis architecture, so there's very little value in having a logistics vehicle that can stick around longer. Lunar Starship will be limited to less than 100 days on the surface, and the initial design will be more limited than that. It may also require multiple refuelings to keep it alive between annual SLS/Orion missions.

Let's say each Artemis mission begins with launching and loading two accumulator tankers in LEO, then a Cargo Starship. One of the accumulator tankers refuels the Cargo Starship, then reenters and lands. The Cargo Starship and the other accumulator tanker depart for NRHO. The accumulator tanker refuels the Lunar Starship that been waiting patiently in NRHO and trying not to die.

With refueling complete, the crew launches on SLS, and Orion heads to NRHO. If Gateway is in the mix, Lunar Starship and Cargo Starship are both now docked to Gateway, and there's a third port open for Orion. Otherwise, Orion docks to Lunar Starship, crew transfers, Orion undocks (uncrewed), and the two Starships dock together. After the crew is done transferring cargo in the Lunar Starship, they undock and land on the Moon.

Here's where the Cargo Starship could be much more than a Dragon XXXXXL:

At the end of the surface mission, Lunar Starship returns to NRHO, and the crew can transfer return cargo into Cargo Starship, which then returns to Earth. Lunar Starship has much more upmass potential than NASA expected from HLS, and using Cargo Starship instead of Dragon XL would allow NASA to deliver all that fascinating lunar upmass to laboratories here on Earth.

That's the killer app. Dragon XL can't return any mass to Earth. Lunar Starship can't return any mass to Earth. Orion can't return very much mass to Earth. Cargo Starship can deliver and return an order of magnitude more cargo than Dragon XL. NASA would be silly not to take advantage of such a capability.
Can a cargo starhip take cargo to Gateway and enogh fuel to refuel the Lunar Starship for another sortie?
« Last Edit: 04/19/2021 05:48 pm by dror »
Space is hard immensely complex and high risk !

Offline _MECO

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #576 on: 04/19/2021 07:36 pm »
Well, it was mentionned yesterday that Starship is designed to loiter in NRHO at least 100 days, waiting for Orion to arrive.
Really? Where? I really want to see that. If it's true it would absolutely mean an Artemis without Gateway could be a real possibility. I know I posted these doodles in the Starship board but I'm reposting them here in case anyone here didn't see them over there. It's how I think a Gateway-free Artemis would work. And part of that prediction involves HLS Starship camping out in NRHO before Orion meets up with it. Why would Gateway ever need to be a part of that plan? To be a multi-billion dollar tube the crew could move through as they went between Orion and HLS Starship?
« Last Edit: 04/19/2021 07:37 pm by _MECO »

Offline docmordrid

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #577 on: 04/19/2021 07:48 pm »
Well, it was mentionned yesterday that Starship is designed to loiter in NRHO at least 100 days, waiting for Orion to arrive.
Really? Where? I really want to see that. If it's true it would absolutely mean an Artemis without Gateway could be a real possibility.
>

Page 9, Source Selection Statement

Quote
[...] SpaceX’s approach to achieving them in a manner that will not comprise its ability to meet NASA’s other requirements to be a particularly noteworthy attribute of SpaceX’s design with abundant potential benefit for NASA. In particular, SpaceX’s quiescent lunar orbit operations capability will allow it to loiter for 100 days prior to rendezvous with the crew vehicle. This capability exceeds NASA’s stated goal period of 90 days, which allows for additional flexibility for crew launch in the event unexpected circumstances arise that could delay the commencement of Artemis missions.

Additionally, the scale of SpaceX’s lander architecture presents numerous benefits to NASA.
>
« Last Edit: 04/19/2021 07:51 pm by docmordrid »
DM

Offline tbellman

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #578 on: 04/19/2021 08:24 pm »
Can anyone think of a good reason not to replace this with a Cargo version of Starship?
Mass and stress on the docking ports.

NASA, or specifically Mark Wiese, Manager of NASA’s Gateway Deep Space Logistics, has said that the 14 tonne maximum set in the GLS procurement requirements, were in hindsight not needed, and that going forward that limit would be gone.

https://mainenginecutoff.com/podcast/161, starting at 12:39.

So it seems NASA are not worried about the stress on the docking ports.  And of course, as an HLS lander, Starship needs to dock to Gateway anyway, and there has been no indication from NASA that that docking would be problematic.

Offline NaN

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Re: SpaceX Dragon XL
« Reply #579 on: 04/19/2021 11:27 pm »
Can anyone think of a good reason not to replace this with a Cargo version of Starship?

Since NASA wants multiple HLS providers, they can't count on Starships heading uphill for each Artemis mission, so logistics still needs to be considered separately. If you're sending folks up on an Orion and transferring them to a Blue lander via Gateway, do you send the supplies up in a Dragon XL or in a Starship?

Simple answer, even though Dragon XL does not exist yet, it is a known quantity launching from a proven LV. NASA can, once they commit to funding it, very much count on it being available within a given time frame and with precisely the advertised capabilities. Starship also does not exist yet, and is much less of a known quantity. While its potential is enormous, it may take a long time for its capabilities to mature and reach desired levels. This makes planning around it far harder, even if they could somehow simply rewrite the gateway resupply contract to allow Starship instead, which I'm skeptical they could do without opening a new competition.

This is why Dragon XL still makes sense for Gateway logistics and likely still will in 2-3 years time. Also in general terms, I don't think NASA will want to put all of their eggs in one basket, even if it's a really big, shiny, reusable basket.

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