Author Topic: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread  (Read 314436 times)

Offline Trypto

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #860 on: 02/07/2023 04:35 am »
Anthony Colangelo (of the MECO and Off-Nominal podcasts) posted a couple of Reddit comments last week suggesting that the upcoming "confidential commercial customer" flying out of Wallops would not be Capella Space as previously predicted:

https://www.reddit.com/r/RocketLab/comments/10rbstf/electron_next_launch/j6uy63q/?context=3

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anthonycolangelo 3 points 5 days ago
I don’t know if this is the same confidential customer referred to back then, but the next launch from Wallops is confidential, is not Capella, and will be a super weird one, from what I’ve heard.

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trimeta 2 points 5 days ago
I don't suppose you have any further information you can share publicly about that? I wouldn't characterize any of the 2023 launches listed on the Wikipedia's List of Electron Launches as "super weird," other than maybe Venus Life Finder. And that one's almost certainly going from LC-1, plus isn't going until NET May either, and honestly sounded like it might be delayed significantly when Beck spoke on a podcast recently.

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anthonycolangelo 1 point 4 days ago
Unfortunately not, but I’m not lying that what I’ve heard will be considered weird.

Offline Flatwhite

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #861 on: 02/10/2023 04:18 am »
Does anyone have any hint or idea on who the "large megaconstellation customer" rocket lab is planning to fly their new reaction wheels on is ?

https://investors.rocketlabusa.com/news/news-details/2023/Rocket-Lab-Increases-Space-Systems-Offerings-with-New-Products-for-Small-Satellites/default.aspx

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #862 on: 02/19/2023 06:48 pm »
twitter.com/rocketlab/status/1627393954990940160

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In the past few days we put our helicopters to use for a different kind of recovery, delivering food and essential supplies donated by Rocket Lab and our team members to Mahia and other communities hit hard by Cyclone Gabrielle.

https://twitter.com/rocketlab/status/1627394257274417154

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Our team members at Launch Complex 1 are safe and well and the launch site hasn’t sustained damage, so we are very fortunate. This puts us in a good position to deploy our resources, infrastructure and people to support relief efforts for those impacted by the storm.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #863 on: 02/21/2023 10:02 pm »
https://twitter.com/peter_j_beck/status/1628165082101485573

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All 3 pads are busy with 2 rockets at LC-2 in Virginia and 1 on the way to LC-1 in New Zealand this week. The teams are racing to see which hemisphere can launch first.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #864 on: 02/26/2023 09:22 am »
There is recent presentation by Adam Spicer on RLs Investor webpage, its Cowen 44 just enter your details to access.

Lots of good stuff worth a listen if a shareholder. Good news is space systems business is doing well and targeting 14 launches in 2023. Neutron on schedule, Q4 of 2024 is still the target. The initial $250m for Neutron should get a test vehicle on pad. Going need lot more $$ to build up to fleet of four boosters, along with manufacturing and additional launch infrastructure e.g barge and its pier.
I'm expecting odd loss early in program so may need to build 6 or more boosters.
« Last Edit: 03/02/2023 03:00 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline Tywin

Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #865 on: 02/26/2023 01:28 pm »
 
There is recent presentation by Adam Spicer on RLs Investor webpage, its Cowen 44 just enter your details to access.

Lots of good stuff worth a listen if a shareholder. Good news is space systems business is doing well and targeting 14 launches in 2023. Neutron on schedule, Q4 of 2024 is still the target. The initial $250m for Neutron should get a test vehicle on pad. Going need lot more $$ to build up to fleet of four boosters, along with manufacturing and additional launch infrastructure e.g barge and its pier.
I'm expecting odd loss early in program so may need to build 6 or more boosters.


And maybe recovery by chopter in Wallops in future...
« Last Edit: 03/02/2023 03:01 pm by zubenelgenubi »
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #866 on: 02/26/2023 03:33 pm »
M&A are still on cards but most companies are valuing themselves in 2021 prices which would be fine if RL shares were at 2021 prices. 

For owners being bought out in case of M&A its not always about highest financial offer. The company is their baby and they've put everything into it, most wouldn't want to walk away and retire.  In these cases a merger with likes of RL can be more appealing as they can keep working and still have say in company future.  Sinclair's owner now works as engineer for RL on space missions, seems to have moved on from reaction wheel business.
« Last Edit: 02/26/2023 05:30 pm by TrevorMonty »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #867 on: 02/26/2023 04:29 pm »
Reread your post. The text isn’t formatting correctly. Are copying and pasting from Word or something?
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #868 on: 02/28/2023 06:34 pm »
https://twitter.com/rocketlab/status/1630648015307571200

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Rocket Lab's Q4 2022 financial results will be reported at 4:30pm ET / 1:30pm PT today. Join us by registering for the call here: https://bit.ly/3SywMZ7 $RKLB #RKLB

Offline XRZ.YZ

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #869 on: 03/01/2023 01:42 am »
For FY2022
9 Electron Launch for $60.7M
That's about $6.75M per launch.

A year's time should avg out timing of revenue recognition etc.
So this should consider close to true sell price.

Also on launch cadence of impact on fix cost
Quote
Gross margin decline was driven largely by a
combination of reduced launch cadence and
related lack fixed cost absorption, below
average revenue contribution from the
“Catch Me If You Can” R&D recovery mission,
and an unfavorable mix within our Space
Systems components revenue

Also free cash flow Q3 -31M, Q4 -34M
Current cash and marketable security in total about 470M
So have more than 3 years of run way.
However, current R&D expenditure for past year is very low considering they are developing a large rocket.
Might mean large expenditure for Neutron in the future.
« Last Edit: 03/01/2023 01:48 am by XRZ.YZ »
XQCR LLYZ GYZH HZSZ

Offline trimeta

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #870 on: 03/01/2023 02:00 am »
For FY2022
9 Electron Launch for $60.7M
That's about $6.75M per launch.

A year's time should avg out timing of revenue recognition etc.
So this should consider close to true sell price.

Also on launch cadence of impact on fix cost
Quote
Gross margin decline was driven largely by a
combination of reduced launch cadence and
related lack fixed cost absorption, below
average revenue contribution from the
“Catch Me If You Can” R&D recovery mission,
and an unfavorable mix within our Space
Systems components revenue

Also free cash flow Q3 -31M, Q4 -34M
Current cash and marketable security in total about 470M
So have more than 3 years of run way.
However, current R&D expenditure for past year is very low considering they are developing a large rocket.
Might mean large expenditure for Neutron in the future.

They've talked a few times about expecting to spend $250M on Neutron development up to the point when it first launches, with that point currently scheduled for Q4 2024. While there's a very good chance that will slip (and notably, the $250M value doesn't include additional spending after the first launch to ramp up Neutron to an operational cadence), this would suggest a max of around $31.25M spent per quarter, if we ignore all prior spending and only consider 2023 and 2024. So while R&D spending will likely increase (it was only $25.6M across both GAAP and non-GAAP spending in Q4 2022), I think a factor-of-two increase is probably around what we should expect (since the Q4 2022 spend already did include some Neutron R&D).

Offline sanman

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #871 on: 03/01/2023 07:49 am »
So is water recovery a robust option for reusability, in case air recovery is too problematic?

How do they hope to waterproof the stage, in order to make water landing as feasible as possible?

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #872 on: 03/01/2023 08:46 am »
So is water recovery a robust option for reusability, in case air recovery is too problematic?

How do they hope to waterproof the stage, in order to make water landing as feasible as possible?
Don't have to reuse complete stage, just enough of it to be financially worthwhile.

Edit. Just listen to Q&A section 55:00 where this discussed. They plan to refly whole stage, does need more refurbishment compared to MAR but they also have more recovery opportunities. Definitely makes it cheaper to implement recovery out of Wallops as only need to rent a small recovery ship few times a year compared to owning helicopter. Up till now ship has always been on station even with MAR attempts. If that will always be case then that is fix part of recovery costs, now it matter of just trading extra refurbishment against cost of helicopter ownership.
« Last Edit: 03/02/2023 03:00 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline sanman

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #873 on: 03/02/2023 02:24 pm »
Don't have to reuse complete stage, just enough of it to be financially worthwhile.

Edit. Just listen to Q&A section 55:00 where this discussed. They plan to refly whole stage, does need more refurbishment compared to MAR but they also have more recovery opportunities. Definitely makes it cheaper to implement recovery out of Wallops as only need to rent a small recovery ship few times a year compared to owning helicopter. Up till now ship has always been on station even with MAR attempts. If that will always be case then that is fix part of recovery costs, now it matter of just trading extra refurbishment against cost of helicopter ownership.

Why can't they come up with remotely piloted drone-copter to do the mid-air catch? Is that too expensive to develop? Just re-fit existing copter with enough cameras and duplicate control interface remotely. Or is it just not worth it to do significant development for catching an Electron that's supposed to be obsoleted fairly quickly anyway, in the face of Neutron's arrival? What is Electron's useful service life as a launch platform supposed to be? When will it be retired? Or is it still slated to have a useful niche capability that Neutron won't serve?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #874 on: 03/02/2023 02:47 pm »
No large autonomous drone exists to do that, other than taking a full sized helicopter and making it robotic or something. But that doesn’t really save you any costs.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #875 on: 03/02/2023 03:02 pm »
Limiting factor with helicopter or drone is range when operating from shore plus night time and low visiblity recovery isn't possible.
Range can be overcome by operating off larger ship with helipad but that is very expensive marine asset. This was RL original idea.

With water recovery limiting factor is sea state.

ULA have also switched SMART from MAR to water recovery for same reasons. In ULA case engine pods are kept dry by large inflatable heatshield that doubles as raft.

Offline trimeta

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #876 on: 03/10/2023 12:03 am »
Rocket Lab has published their 2022 10-K SEC filing. While there's a lot to go over here, I jumped to page 102 (of the attached PDF) with the breakdown of revenues and cost of revenues across both the Launch Services and Space Systems segments. Space Systems is of course the real moneymaker, with revenues of $150.31M and cost of revenues of $124.366M, for a gross profit of $25.944M. Launch Services did better than I expected, though, with revenues of $60.686M and cost of revenues of $67.64M, for a gross loss of $6.954M. And that was with nine launches, including a couple of discounted launches sold for under $7.5M (their revenues are about $7M less than if all launches were at sticker price). That makes me think that if they can hit (or even come very close to) their target of 15 launches in 2023, they could actually be gross profitable in that segment.
« Last Edit: 03/10/2023 12:04 am by trimeta »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #877 on: 03/10/2023 01:40 am »
Rocket Lab has published their 2022 10-K SEC filing. While there's a lot to go over here, I jumped to page 102 (of the attached PDF) with the breakdown of revenues and cost of revenues across both the Launch Services and Space Systems segments. Space Systems is of course the real moneymaker, with revenues of $150.31M and cost of revenues of $124.366M, for a gross profit of $25.944M. Launch Services did better than I expected, though, with revenues of $60.686M and cost of revenues of $67.64M, for a gross loss of $6.954M. And that was with nine launches, including a couple of discounted launches sold for under $7.5M (their revenues are about $7M less than if all launches were at sticker price). That makes me think that if they can hit (or even come very close to) their target of 15 launches in 2023, they could actually be gross profitable in that segment.
Last years recovery program and flights would've cost them both in direct costs and discounting mission. Can't see customer agreeing to all delays without a significant discount.

Between expected recovering of boosters dry or wet and higher flightrate this year Electron should turn a tidy profit. Going have to heavily discount first few refurbished boosters to get customers onboard. Luckily F9R has helped with customer acceptance of reused boosters.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #878 on: 03/10/2023 02:51 am »
Rocket Lab has published their 2022 10-K SEC filing. While there's a lot to go over here, I jumped to page 102 (of the attached PDF) with the breakdown of revenues and cost of revenues across both the Launch Services and Space Systems segments. Space Systems is of course the real moneymaker, with revenues of $150.31M and cost of revenues of $124.366M, for a gross profit of $25.944M. Launch Services did better than I expected, though, with revenues of $60.686M and cost of revenues of $67.64M, for a gross loss of $6.954M. And that was with nine launches, including a couple of discounted launches sold for under $7.5M (their revenues are about $7M less than if all launches were at sticker price). That makes me think that if they can hit (or even come very close to) their target of 15 launches in 2023, they could actually be gross profitable in that segment.

Question for an investor is - how many launches will be required to recoup cost of Electron development plus accumulated losses to date?

If development cost say $100M, and accumulated losses have reached another $100M, that’s $200M in after tax net profit required to earn that back. So even it they make $2M net profit per launch, that’s 100 more launches just to break even. Include time value of money over the ten years from inception to hitting 100 profitable flights and you probably need to recoup closer to $400M in nominal terms. So that’s more like 200 profitable launches.

And then you have broken even.

Worth the investment? That’s for you to decide.


Online edzieba

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Re: Rocket Lab General Discussion Thread
« Reply #879 on: 03/10/2023 01:00 pm »
Rocket Lab has published their 2022 10-K SEC filing. While there's a lot to go over here, I jumped to page 102 (of the attached PDF) with the breakdown of revenues and cost of revenues across both the Launch Services and Space Systems segments. Space Systems is of course the real moneymaker, with revenues of $150.31M and cost of revenues of $124.366M, for a gross profit of $25.944M. Launch Services did better than I expected, though, with revenues of $60.686M and cost of revenues of $67.64M, for a gross loss of $6.954M. And that was with nine launches, including a couple of discounted launches sold for under $7.5M (their revenues are about $7M less than if all launches were at sticker price). That makes me think that if they can hit (or even come very close to) their target of 15 launches in 2023, they could actually be gross profitable in that segment.

Question for an investor is - how many launches will be required to recoup cost of Electron development plus accumulated losses to date?

If development cost say $100M, and accumulated losses have reached another $100M, that’s $200M in after tax net profit required to earn that back. So even it they make $2M net profit per launch, that’s 100 more launches just to break even. Include time value of money over the ten years from inception to hitting 100 profitable flights and you probably need to recoup closer to $400M in nominal terms. So that’s more like 200 profitable launches.

And then you have broken even.

Worth the investment? That’s for you to decide.
That's not how investment works.

Return is via share market price v. buy price at time of investment. Profitability feeds to some degree to market price of the shares, but that's just one factor of many that drive market pricing. There is zero requirement for Rocketlab to 'earn back' investment through profits, that's just not how things work.
« Last Edit: 03/10/2023 01:09 pm by edzieba »

 

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