Bolden: "NASA won't land another man on the moon in my lifetime"

[ChileVerde]

This really, really sounds as the lunar surface is really, really off the table for NASA HSF for the indefinite future.

http://www.spacepolitics.com/2013/04/05/back-to-the-moon-not-any-time-soon-says-bolden/

Back to the Moon? Not any time soon, says Bolden
By Jeff Foust on 2013 April 5 at 1:05 pm ET

<snip>

At a joint meeting of the Space Studies Board and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board in Washington on Thursday, [April 4, 2013]...

<snip>

NASA administrator Charles Bolden... noted that a number of nations have expressed interest, to varying degrees, in human lunar exploration. “They all have dreams of putting human on the Moon,” he said. “I have told every head of agency of every partner agency that if you assume the lead in a human lunar mission, NASA will be a part of that. NASA wants to be a participant.”

However, he made it clear NASA has no plans to lead its own human return to the Moon under his watch. “NASA will not take the lead on a human lunar mission,” he said. “NASA is not going to the Moon with a human as a primary project probably in my lifetime. And the reason is, we can only do so many things.” Instead, he said the focus would remain on human missions to asteroids and to Mars. “We intend to do that, and we think it can be done.”

“I don’t know how to say it any more plainly,” he concluded. “NASA does not have a human lunar mission in its portfolio and we are not planning for one.” He warned that if the next administration tries to change course again back to the Moon, “it means we are probably, in our lifetime, in the lifetime of everybody sitting in this room, we are probably never again going to see Americans on the Moon, on Mars, near an asteroid, or anywhere. We cannot continue to change the course of human exploration.”

[HappyMartian]

This really, really sounds as the lunar surface is really, really off the table for NASA HSF for the indefinite future.

http://www.spacepolitics.com/2013/04/05/back-to-the-moon-not-any-time-soon-says-bolden/

Back to the Moon? Not any time soon, says Bolden
By Jeff Foust on 2013 April 5 at 1:05 pm ET

<snip>

At a joint meeting of the Space Studies Board and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board in Washington on Thursday, [April 4, 2013]...

<snip>

NASA administrator Charles Bolden... noted that a number of nations have expressed interest, to varying degrees, in human lunar exploration. “They all have dreams of putting human on the Moon,” he said. “I have told every head of agency of every partner agency that if you assume the lead in a human lunar mission, NASA will be a part of that. NASA wants to be a participant.”

However, he made it clear NASA has no plans to lead its own human return to the Moon under his watch. “NASA will not take the lead on a human lunar mission,” he said. “NASA is not going to the Moon with a human as a primary project probably in my lifetime. And the reason is, we can only do so many things.” Instead, he said the focus would remain on human missions to asteroids and to Mars. “We intend to do that, and we think it can be done.”

“I don’t know how to say it any more plainly,” he concluded. “NASA does not have a human lunar mission in its portfolio and we are not planning for one.” He warned that if the next administration tries to change course again back to the Moon, “it means we are probably, in our lifetime, in the lifetime of everybody sitting in this room, we are probably never again going to see Americans on the Moon, on Mars, near an asteroid, or anywhere. We cannot continue to change the course of human exploration.”

Can he tell Congress, “NASA does not have a human lunar mission in its portfolio and we are not planning for one”?

Congress might say something like, 'NASA is supposed to lead, not be a follower. If NASA cannot follow American law and lead other nations in putting astronauts on the Moon, maybe we need to give NASA's BLEO human space exploration budget to the folks at Golden Spike. They seem to have wiser priorities than NASA's leadership does.'

We shall see.


Edited.

[llanitedave]

Seems to me that all roads to deep space, including Mars and the asteroids, lead through the Moon.  To neglect that is a huge mistake, I believe.

[HappyMartian]

Seems to me that all roads to deep space, including Mars and the asteroids, lead through the Moon.  To neglect that is a huge mistake, I believe.

Amen.

[Jim]

Congress might say something like, 'NASA is supposed to lead, not be a follower. If NASA cannot follow American law and lead other nations in putting astronauts on the Moon, maybe we need to give NASA's BLEO human space exploration budget to the folks at Golden Spike. They seem to have wiser priorities than NASA's leadership does.'

Delusional. That is not going to happen on many levels.
Congress doesn't want to go to the moon, it just wants to fund NASA and those congressional districts.  Golden Spike doesn't provide work in the right districts.  Congress isn't going to take away money from NASA, much less give it to GS or another organization.  BTW, NASA is following the law, it is just not following your views, which are in the minority.   Wisdom has nothing to do with GS priorities. 

Don't go and make a long post with a lot of link.  It won't change what is reality and it will be incorrect also.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Congress might say something like, 'NASA is supposed to lead, not be a follower. If NASA cannot follow American law and lead other nations in putting astronauts on the Moon, maybe we need to give NASA's BLEO human space exploration budget to the folks at Golden Spike. They seem to have wiser priorities than NASA's leadership does.'

Delusional. That is not going to happen on many levels.
Congress doesn't want to go to the moon, it just wants to fund NASA and those congressional districts.  Golden Spike doesn't provide work in the right districts.  Congress isn't going to take away money from NASA, much less give it to GS or another organization.  BTW, NASA is following the law, it is just not following your views, which are in the minority.   Wisdom has nothing to do with it. 

Indeed, although I think that is still a missed chance....

Now if only NASA has a clearer direction for human operations..... 

[HappyMartian]

Seems to me that all roads to deep space, including Mars and the asteroids, lead through the Moon.  To neglect that is a huge mistake, I believe.

American law seems to indicate the same thing.

'PUBLIC LAW 111–267—OCT. 11, 2010' is available
At: http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/649377main_PL_111-267.pdf.



Note historical views:



President George W. Bush stated, "Returning to the moon is an important step for our space program. Establishing an extended human presence on the moon could vastly reduce the costs of further space exploration, making possible ever more ambitious missions."

And, "Also, the moon is home to abundant resources. Its soil contains raw materials that might be harvested and processed into rocket fuel or breathable air. We can use our time on the moon to develop and test new approaches and technologies and systems that will allow us to function in other, more challenging environments. The moon is a logical step toward further progress and achievement."

And, "With the experience and knowledge gained on the moon, we will then be ready to take the next steps of space exploration: human missions to Mars and to worlds beyond."

From: President Bush Announces New Vision for Space Exploration Program  Remarks by the President on U.S. Space Policy   January 14, 2004
NASA Headquarters  Washington, D.C.
At: http://history.nasa.gov/Bush%20SEP.htm



Or:



President Barack Obama stated, "Now, I understand that some believe that we should attempt a return to the surface of the Moon first, as previously planned. But I just have to say pretty bluntly here: We’ve been there before. Buzz has been there. There’s a lot more of space to explore, and a lot more to learn when we do. So I believe it’s more important to ramp up our capabilities to reach -- and operate at -- a series of increasingly demanding targets, while advancing our technological capabilities with each step forward."

From: REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT ON SPACE EXPLORATION IN THE 21ST CENTURY   April 15, 2010   John F. Kennedy Space Center Merritt Island, Florida   
At: http://www.nasa.gov/news/media/trans/obama_ksc_trans.html


And:


NRC: No National Consensus on NASA Strategic Plans; Asteroid-First Mission Not Deemed Compelling  By Laura M. Delgado  December 5, 2012
From: http://www.spacepolicyonline.com/news/nrc-no-national-consensus-on-nasa-strategic-plans-asteroid-first-mission-not-deemed-compelling

"An ambitious congressionally-mandated study of NASA’s strategic plans and ability to achieve them, released today, describes a grim state of affairs that, if not corrected, threaten U.S. continued leadership in space."



Space Foundation Recommends NASA Adopt Pioneering Purpose
12/04/2012
http://www.spacefoundation.org/programs/research-and-analysis/pioneering/media/space-foundation-recommends-nasa-adopt-pioneering

"Commenting on the report findings, the Space Foundation Chief Executive Officer Elliot Pulham said, 'Our research revealed that NASA is struggling to find its way as a result of years of circumstance and mixed signals from political leadership. But, the fundamental issue is the muddled -- or non-existent -- understanding of why NASA exists and what it should be doing.'"

[HappyMartian]

Congress might say something like, 'NASA is supposed to lead, not be a follower. If NASA cannot follow American law and lead other nations in putting astronauts on the Moon, maybe we need to give NASA's BLEO human space exploration budget to the folks at Golden Spike. They seem to have wiser priorities than NASA's leadership does.'

Delusional. That is not going to happen on many levels.
Congress doesn't want to go to the moon, it just wants to fund NASA and those congressional districts.  Golden Spike doesn't provide work in the right districts.  Congress isn't going to take away money from NASA, much less give it to GS or another organization.  BTW, NASA is following the law, it is just not following your views, which are in the minority.   Wisdom has nothing to do with GS priorities. 

Don't go and make a long post with a lot of link.  It won't change what is reality and it will be incorrect also.

Golden Spike would provide clear leadership and a focus on the Moon, and not on some unfunded asteroid or Mars missions. Where the work is being done to get us to the Moon doesn't need to change.

NASA's priorities are controlled by budgets. Congress controls NASA's funding, not the President. Congress is funding the SLS and Orion spacecraft.

The missions that the SLS/Orion combination will eventually accomplish after 2017 will be determined by Congress.

[Jim]

Golden Spike would provide clear leadership and a focus on the Moon, and not on some unfunded asteroid or Mars missions. Where the work is being done to get us to the Moon doesn't need to change.

They are a company and not a govt agency. They have nothing to do with Congress, NASA or the taxpayers' money.  Congress is not going to fund them nor deal with them, much less bypass NASA.   

[Patchouli]

Seems to me that all roads to deep space, including Mars and the asteroids, lead through the Moon.  To neglect that is a huge mistake, I believe.

I think neglecting the moon is a colossal mistake.

It's a relatively safe and easy to reach location to test the technology needed for deep space.

Delusional. That is not going to happen on many levels.
Congress doesn't want to go to the moon, it just wants to fund NASA and those congressional districts.

That is why I'm so anti this congress they have no vision and cannot think beyond what directly benefits their careers and maybe their immediate districts.
The irony is their short sighted actions often end up hurting their districts in the long run.

[Khadgars]

Seems to me that all roads to deep space, including Mars and the asteroids, lead through the Moon.  To neglect that is a huge mistake, I believe.

I think neglecting the moon is a colossal mistake.

It's a relatively safe and easy to reach location to test the technology needed for deep space.

I think Boldens view is we can't go to the moon and plan on going to Mars within a reasonable time frame, just not going to happen.

Did anyone pick up the talk about capturing an asteroid, bring it back to the moon and visit it by 2021? Think we might have actual roadmap in the works.

[Patchouli]

I think Boldens view is we can't go to the moon and plan on going to Mars within a reasonable time frame, just not going to happen.

Did anyone pick up the talk about capturing an asteroid, bring it back to the moon and visit it by 2021? Think we might have actual roadmap in the works.

Though I feel that view is incorrect as the systems can have a lot of commonality.

The LV's are the same and many of the lander and hab systems are the same.
A lunar lander for example can be a light version of a Mars lander.

Some things that will different a Mars mission likely would have a large Mars transfer vehicle,lander may require less delta V depending on EDL mode, the MAV will have to be much more powerful then a lunar ascent vehicle, and the spacesuits will need different cooling technology.

[ChileVerde]

I think neglecting the moon is a colossal mistake.

It's a relatively safe and easy to reach location to test the technology needed for deep space.

Note that the "asteroid heist" idea, as someone else felicitously called it, results in a variant of the EML2 proposals.  Played properly, that could result in development of deep space technologies even better than would direct lunar surface missions.  I have little confidence that things will or, for funding reasons, can be played properly, but it's a possibility.

[MarkWhittington]

Bolden has to say this, no matter how demented it seems to be, because it is official Obama administration policy. The remarkable thing he said came later when he warned that future administrations had better not change course back to the moon else no one will go anywhere in anyone's lifetime. So he is actually saying that a President Rubio or a President Hillary Clinton has to swallow Obama's space policy, no matter that the consensus as defined in the NRC report is that it is dysfunctional and a non starter. Congress may not be willing to up NASA's budget absent presidential support, but at least it can drag Bolden before a committee or two and demand that he explain himself.

[spectre9]

Bolden has no say in what happens with the next administration unless he is selected to go around again as NASA administrator which at his age is very unlikely.

He says he is committed to SLS/Orion but since he can gain no glory from such long term projects he will continue his crusade to give the money to commercial crew.

The next administration can build a lunar lander and go to the moon like Apollo did. It's how that lander is built that needs to be worked out, it has to be fast tracked and cheap. Can commercial space do it? Nobody will know until it's tried.

Grumman did fairly well back in the day and this is half a century later so you'd expect they could shave a few years off development if they get started in the 2018 time frame.

They make it sounds like Mars is in reach. It isn't, not even in 2033.

[ChileVerde]

They make it sounds like Mars is in reach. It isn't, not even in 2033.

Mars surface, no. Maybe fly-by or orbit/moons if the stars and budgets aligned. Not making any bets on those.

[Robotbeat]

The Moon doesn't /have/ to be the goal. A lot of vocal people on this thread seem to think that if the goal isn't the Moon, it doesn't count.

[hydra9]

If NASA is serious about eventually putting humans on the surface of Mars for at least several months or a few years then they're going to have to return to the Moon to test the reliability of such ground systems.

Lunar water may also be the best way to fuel and to mass shield inteplanetary space craft traveling to Mars orbit.

But its rather difficult to take anything that Bolden says about the future of NASA seriously, IMO.

Marcel F. Williams

[simonbp]

They make it sounds like Mars is in reach. It isn't, not even in 2033.

Mars surface, no. Maybe fly-by or orbit/moons if the stars and budgets aligned. Not making any bets on those.

I'd put Inspiration Mars's chances as much higher, frankly.

Of course, if Inspiration Mars does work out, it could give a future administration the kick in the pants to push forward a landing.

[ChileVerde]

This is being discussed over in the Live Event section, but it seems worthwhile to include it in this thread as it seems to reinforce what Mr. Bolden was quoted as saying earlier. 

Parenthetically, I'm slightly distressed that the senior official seems to think that Orion is a "deep-space capsule", which it mostly isn't.  It's going to be tough to get to Mars without a proven DSH.

http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/06/17630481-administration-confirms-nasa-plan-grab-an-asteroid-then-focus-on-mars

Administration confirms NASA plan: Grab an asteroid, then focus on Mars
By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

NASA's accelerated vision for exploration calls for moving a near-Earth asteroid even nearer to Earth, sending out astronauts to bring back samples within a decade, and then shifting the focus to Mars, a senior Obama administration official told NBC News on Saturday [6 April 2013].

<snip>

"This mission would combine the best of NASA's asteroid identification, technology development, and human exploration efforts to capture and redirect a small asteroid to just beyond the moon to set up a human mission using existing resources and equipment, including the heavy-lift rocket and deep-space capsule that have been under development for several years," the official said in an email.

<snip>

After the asteroid mission, NASA would turn its attention to a farther-out destination: Mars. The Obama administration has called for astronauts to travel to the Red Planet and its moons by the mid-2030s, and that would be the next major target for space exploration. The administration official told NBC News that other concepts, such as sending astronauts back to the moon or creating a deep-space platform beyond the far side of the moon, are not on the agenda for the foreseeable future.