Author Topic: Poll: which launchers will launch successfully by end of 2024? (Read 20978 times)

AmigaClone · « **Reply #20 on:** 12/26/2024 09:28 pm »

Quote from: deltaV on 12/26/2024 09:04 pm

Vulcan (58/62 voted for it), H3 (20/28 voted for it), Starship (58/62 voted for it) and Ariane 6 (52/62) have launched successfully. New Glenn might launch in the last few days of 2024; we'll see. Have I missed any other successful maiden launches?

There were new variants of existing launchers or new launchers from Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran which didn't qualify for this poll.

deltaV · « **Reply #21 on:** 12/31/2024 02:00 am »

The wisdom of the crowd did well at this poll - the vehicles that launched successfully are precisely the vehicles that received at least 50% votes (dividing the number of people who voted for the late adds RS1 and H3 by the number of votes received after they were added, 62-13=49 and 62-34=28 respectively).

deltaV · « **Reply #22 on:** 12/31/2024 02:16 am »

For next year's poll I think I'll only include launchers that someone nominates. I'll start by nominating Antares 330, Epsilon S, Eris Block 1, KAIROS, Maia, Neutron, New Glenn, Nova, and RFA One. Please post nominations by next Monday January 6.

Edit: so far others have nominated Stoke Space Nova (which is already in my list) and ISAR Spectrum.

Lar · « **Reply #23 on:** 01/01/2025 06:35 pm »

I nominate Stoke's orbital vehicle (for next year) unless you got it already.

yoram · « **Reply #24 on:** 01/01/2025 06:39 pm »

ISAR Spectrum (they are in a race with RFA one)

deltaV · « **Reply #25 on:** 01/01/2025 11:34 pm »

Does anyone know which of Cyclone-4M, Zéphyr, Skyrora XL, and HyImpulse have a significantly non-zero chance of launching successfully in 2025? (I haven't nominated those yet.)

yoram · « **Reply #26 on:** 01/02/2025 04:28 pm »

This article has a lot more candidates:
https://spacenews.com/china-to-debut-new-long-march-and-commercial-rockets-in-2025/

deltaV · « **Reply #27 on:** 01/08/2025 08:53 pm »

I made next year's poll: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=62184.0 . I included all the vehicles someone nominated and a few more I nominated just now, except I excluded launchers from non-democratic countries such as China.