Who will get to Mars first, USA or China?

[Tywin]

With the new Lunar race on fire, it seems that China is also looking ahead in time, to Mars, who will get there first?

[TrevorMonty]

USA has been there done that multiple times.

[AllenB]

USA has been there done that multiple times.

Seems safe to assume that we're talking about landing *people* on Mars.

Having said that, I voted United States. You can debate the specifics, but IMHO we have at least a plausible path to Mars in SpaceX/Starship. And if/when things start looking good, I'll bet that some NASA money shows up to help.

I'm not aware of any plausible near-term path forward from China, but perhaps I've missed it?

[deltaV]

I'm assuming the poll is about sending a person to Mars and that a SpaceX mission or SpaceX/NASA collaboration would count as USA. I voted USA.

[trimeta]

I'm assuming the poll is about sending a person to Mars and that a SpaceX mission or SpaceX/NASA collaboration would count as USA. I voted USA.

If/when a Starship first lands on Mars carrying humans, they will have NASA worms on their shoulders, so it certainly counts.

[Hog]

I'm assuming the poll is about sending a person to Mars and that a SpaceX mission or SpaceX/NASA collaboration would count as USA. I voted USA.

If/when a Starship first lands on Mars carrying humans, they will have NASA worms on their shoulders, so it certainly counts.

I hope its in my lifetime. I hope to see Halley's Comet, again. C'mon 2061.

[D_Dom]

My grandmother saw it twice, pretty awesome experience for her. I am not sure I will make it to 102 but sure, come on 2061! Watched grainy, black and white TV broadcast as men walked on the moon. I thought for sure Mars was the logical next step, GO SpaceX!

[jasonjulius1122]

We cannot say for certain whether China or the USA will be the first to reach Mars. Both countries have active space exploration programs and big ambitions. The race to Mars is exciting and competitive, and only time will tell who will come out on top.

[jongoff]

If we're talking about crewed missions, I still think NASA is way ahead of China, even without factoring in SpaceX. I don't think SpaceX is as close to sending a crewed mission to Mars as some of their more fervent fans think, but if they can get a reusable Starship working, even if their baseline architecture doesn't pan out, there are a crap ton of options once you have fully-reusable launch on the table. Plus, at least so far, China has stuck to just copying the worst ideas from past NASA programs. I'll start worrying about them winning if they start embracing rapid reuse, in-space refueling, etc.

~Jon

[Robotbeat]

If Artemis 3 happens and if Dear Moon (etc) happens, SpaceX could probably get to Mars very soon after if they wanted to.

[AmigaClone]

If Artemis 3 happens and if Dear Moon (etc) happens, SpaceX could probably get to Mars very soon after if they wanted to.

I can see SpaceX potentially attempting a crewed landing on Mars less than six years after Artemis 3 - if that mission, Polaris III, and DearMoon are all successful. Uncrewed SpaceX precursor missions would be launched earlier - although likely later than the HLS for Artemis 3 - unless one of those missions is also used to test large scale refueling.

[Hog]

If Artemis 3 happens and if Dear Moon (etc) happens, SpaceX could probably get to Mars very soon after if they wanted to.

That drives home just how crucial these upcoming crewed missions will be.

[Vahe231991]

If the SpaceX Starship takes people to the Moon in the mid-2020s, then the CZ-9 could be the underdog given that it has not even reached full-scale development and the first flight of the CZ-9 is scheduled for the early 2030s.