Author Topic: Stratolaunch: General Company and Development Updates and Discussions  (Read 1020830 times)

Offline Patchouli

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The closest hydrogen engine for the target payload would be the J-2X but this would not be low cost.

That's in the eye of the beholder. If you had a recoverable first stage, I bet you could make J-2X just as "reusable" as SSME (i.e. requiring a complete teardown after every flight), if not much more reusable.


I heard the J-2S could be made reusable not sure how different it is from the J-2X.
The weakest link to reusability on the J-2X probably is the nozzle extension.
Maybe if funds were unlimited ie a government project add TAN  nozzle with hydrocarbon for use early in flight.

Offline Downix

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The closest hydrogen engine for the target payload would be the J-2X but this would not be low cost.

That's in the eye of the beholder. If you had a recoverable first stage, I bet you could make J-2X just as "reusable" as SSME (i.e. requiring a complete teardown after every flight), if not much more reusable.
SSME hasn't needed a complete teardown after each flight for years, part of the Block IIa upgrade.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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So anyone could estimate the unit procurement cost for about a dozen RS-68A, 2 dozen J2X and 5 dozen Merlin-1D for a dozen flights deployed from the Stratolaunch carrier.

Never mind the additional development cost of a new LV, especially the more costly hydrolox versions.

Offline baldusi

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So anyone could estimate the unit procurement cost for about a dozen RS-68A, 2 dozen J2X and 5 dozen Merlin-1D for a dozen flights deployed from the Stratolaunch carrier.

Never mind the additional development cost of a new LV, especially the more costly hydrolox versions.

The fundamental variable is how many per year?

Offline simonbp

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The fundamental variable is how many per year?

Well right, but that applies to everything. If the flight rate isn't above a certain number, the company will fold. If it's between that minimum number and a second larger number (say 3x the minimum), then it makes sense to stay with the winged Falcon. Above the 3x minimum flight rate (or so), then reusability can become profitable and a flyback LH2 first stage makes sense.

Offline Zed_Noir

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So anyone could estimate the unit procurement cost for about a dozen RS-68A, 2 dozen J2X and 5 dozen Merlin-1D for a dozen flights deployed from the Stratolaunch carrier.

Never mind the additional development cost of a new LV, especially the more costly hydrolox versions.

The fundamental variable is how many per year?

For the purposes of this estimate, 6 flights per year for 2 years.

Offline Downix

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So anyone could estimate the unit procurement cost for about a dozen RS-68A, 2 dozen J2X and 5 dozen Merlin-1D for a dozen flights deployed from the Stratolaunch carrier.

Never mind the additional development cost of a new LV, especially the more costly hydrolox versions.

Based on the numbers I have:

RS-68A : $25 mil per launch
J-2X: $40 mil per launch
Merlin 1D: $35 mil per launch
« Last Edit: 12/27/2011 03:03 am by Downix »
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline Lurker Steve

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So anyone could estimate the unit procurement cost for about a dozen RS-68A, 2 dozen J2X and 5 dozen Merlin-1D for a dozen flights deployed from the Stratolaunch carrier.

Never mind the additional development cost of a new LV, especially the more costly hydrolox versions.

Based on the numbers I have:

RS-68A : $25 mil per launch
J-2X: $40 mil per launch
Merlin 1D: $35 mil per launch

So it's technically possible to build a Delta core cheaper than a F5/F9 core, or are there significant additional costs going from a 3.x m diameter core to 5.x m diameter core ? The LH2/LOX tanks are relatively inexpensive compared to the engines, right ?


Offline deltaV

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So anyone could estimate the unit procurement cost for about a dozen RS-68A, 2 dozen J2X and 5 dozen Merlin-1D for a dozen flights deployed from the Stratolaunch carrier.

Never mind the additional development cost of a new LV, especially the more costly hydrolox versions.

Based on the numbers I have:

RS-68A : $25 mil per launch
J-2X: $40 mil per launch
Merlin 1D: $35 mil per launch

That Merlin 1D figure of $7 million per engine sounds at least a factor of two too high. If that's right the 28 engines on Falcon Heavy would cost $196 million, which is about twice the price of an entire launch!

Offline Robotbeat

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So anyone could estimate the unit procurement cost for about a dozen RS-68A, 2 dozen J2X and 5 dozen Merlin-1D for a dozen flights deployed from the Stratolaunch carrier.

Never mind the additional development cost of a new LV, especially the more costly hydrolox versions.

Based on the numbers I have:

RS-68A : $25 mil per launch
J-2X: $40 mil per launch
Merlin 1D: $35 mil per launch

That Merlin 1D figure of $7 million per engine sounds at least a factor of two too high. If that's right the 28 engines on Falcon Heavy would cost $196 million, which is about twice the price of an entire launch!

Agreed. They can churn those things out like sausages. What's their marginal cost for producing extra, plus a healthy profit? I don't know, but based on the purported cost of a Falcon Heavy launch, I don't see how they could be more than, say, $2 or $3 million at most probably while making a profit.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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So anyone could estimate the unit procurement cost for about a dozen RS-68A, 2 dozen J2X and 5 dozen Merlin-1D for a dozen flights deployed from the Stratolaunch carrier.

Never mind the additional development cost of a new LV, especially the more costly hydrolox versions.

Based on the numbers I have:

RS-68A : $25 mil per launch
J-2X: $40 mil per launch
Merlin 1D: $35 mil per launch

IMO as @DeltaV and @Robotbeat stated above, $7M per Merlin-1D sounds high. Since that would meant roughly $70M just for the 9 Merlin-1D plus the Merlin-1D Vac engines on a Falcon 9 Block II.

Offline Downix

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So anyone could estimate the unit procurement cost for about a dozen RS-68A, 2 dozen J2X and 5 dozen Merlin-1D for a dozen flights deployed from the Stratolaunch carrier.

Never mind the additional development cost of a new LV, especially the more costly hydrolox versions.

Based on the numbers I have:

RS-68A : $25 mil per launch
J-2X: $40 mil per launch
Merlin 1D: $35 mil per launch

IMO as @DeltaV and @Robotbeat stated above, $7M per Merlin-1D sounds high. Since that would meant roughly $70M just for the 9 Merlin-1D plus the Merlin-1D Vac engines on a Falcon 9 Block II.

I'm just using what numbers I have, which are extrapolated from current launch costs.  Remember, this is for a vac engine, so would be technically for the Merlin 1DV, which would be more expensive than the ground-lit units.
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline jimvela

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I'm just using what numbers I have, which are extrapolated from current launch costs.  Remember, this is for a vac engine, so would be technically for the Merlin 1DV, which would be more expensive than the ground-lit units.

Roughly 3x as much cost for air start and a nozzle optimized for ignition at FL430?  Not likely...

Not that I see SpaceX selling Stratolaunch individual engines.  That's not the SpaceX way- they'll likely sell an integrated launch vehicle.   I suspect that there is better margin in tankage (when part of an integrated vehicle) than in merlins, anyway- a fact certainly not lost on SpaceX.

Between making some margin on selling the launcher, and being paid to develop component technologies that benefit the overall SpaceX vision, that's the reason for SpaceX to be in this game.  IMHO.

Offline Downix

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I'm just using what numbers I have, which are extrapolated from current launch costs.  Remember, this is for a vac engine, so would be technically for the Merlin 1DV, which would be more expensive than the ground-lit units.

Roughly 3x as much cost for air start and a nozzle optimized for ignition at FL430?  Not likely...

Not that I see SpaceX selling Stratolaunch individual engines.  That's not the SpaceX way- they'll likely sell an integrated launch vehicle.   I suspect that there is better margin in tankage (when part of an integrated vehicle) than in merlins, anyway- a fact certainly not lost on SpaceX.

Between making some margin on selling the launcher, and being paid to develop component technologies that benefit the overall SpaceX vision, that's the reason for SpaceX to be in this game.  IMHO.
Quite true, but remember, I'm also considering a start-date of 2017, so keep inflation in mind here.
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline Lars_J

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I'm just using what numbers I have, which are extrapolated from current launch costs.  Remember, this is for a vac engine, so would be technically for the Merlin 1DV, which would be more expensive than the ground-lit units.

Roughly 3x as much cost for air start and a nozzle optimized for ignition at FL430?  Not likely...

Not that I see SpaceX selling Stratolaunch individual engines.  That's not the SpaceX way- they'll likely sell an integrated launch vehicle.   I suspect that there is better margin in tankage (when part of an integrated vehicle) than in merlins, anyway- a fact certainly not lost on SpaceX.

Between making some margin on selling the launcher, and being paid to develop component technologies that benefit the overall SpaceX vision, that's the reason for SpaceX to be in this game.  IMHO.
Quite true, but remember, I'm also considering a start-date of 2017, so keep inflation in mind here.
That's very selective inflation at work, there. Otherwise one might assume that you intended to make a case for RS-68 or J-2X, and just made up numbers to make your point. Or?   ;)

Offline kfsorensen

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I just found Stratolaunch's corporate office, not too far from where I work.  Rang the bell but no one appeared to be there today and no cars in the parking lot.  Most people are on holiday this week anyway.

Offline RanulfC

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If it was anyone but Burt Rutan I'd think "Not a chance.". But I'll bet Rutan has done "black projects" that won't see the light for decades, and if anyone can do it....

Earlier, I said I wouldn't comment about Stratolaunch, but I have an view to share (that is carefully worded to avoid issues with proprietary or private confidences). 

First, people are ascribing way too much involvement by Burt (and maybe others like Griffin and Elon) to the Stratolaunch venture.  This is a Vulcan project that seems to have its center of gravity located in Huntsville. 

When I saw Burt a few days ago, he was very clear that he has no management role whatever, and only sits on the Board; otherwise he strongly reiterated "I'm retired."  He has said this publicly before, so this doesn't constitute betraying a confidence.  But people don't listen.

He didn't design the aircraft, he has no real part in the launch vehicle, and he has no role in day-to-day Stratolaunch management.  Plus Scaled is on their own with this aircraft; Burt is not working on it.

(Also, I don't interact with Griffin at all, but I get the impression from his equivocal statements at the press conference that he too is only a Board member and has no management role.  Elon has in the past disparaged air-launching, and I see no reason to think he has changed his view.  SpaceX is quite willing to sell stuff to legitimate purchasers, so when Stratolaunch asked for a launch system, SpaceX apparently said "yes."  They're in business, after all.)

So Stratolaunch might be a good idea or a bad idea, but Burt is not sprinkling Rutan Pixie Dust over the project.  It will stand or fail on engineering and business choices, and those choices won't be made by Burt.  That's my opinion.
Opinion noted and thanks for the info sir! ;)

Note that I'm not casting doubts about Scaled's abilities, but strangely enough I happened across these two studies on an Air-Launched LV that just "happen" to have a really, really similar Carrier Aircraft in the Eclipse:
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19940020540_1994020540.pdf

http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19940020387_1994020387.pdf

Enjoy all! :)

Randy
From The Amazing Catstronaut on the Black Arrow LV:
British physics, old chap. It's undignified to belch flames and effluvia all over the pad, what. A true gentlemen's orbital conveyance lifts itself into the air unostentatiously, with the minimum of spectacle and a modicum of grace. Not like our American cousins' launch vehicles, eh?

Online Comga

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First, people are ascribing way too much involvement by Burt (and maybe others like Griffin and Elon) to the Stratolaunch venture.  This is a Vulcan project that seems to have its center of gravity located in Huntsville. 

An excellent and informative post.  Thank you.

Question from someone with apparently limited familiarity with the subject: Why do you cal it "a Vulcan project"?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Robotbeat

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First, people are ascribing way too much involvement by Burt (and maybe others like Griffin and Elon) to the Stratolaunch venture.  This is a Vulcan project that seems to have its center of gravity located in Huntsville. 

An excellent and informative post.  Thank you.

Question from someone with apparently limited familiarity with the subject: Why do you cal it "a Vulcan project"?


"Vulcan Capital is the private investment group that oversees Paul G. Allen's multi-billion dollar portfolio across diverse industry sectors and asset classes. Investments range from early-stage ventures to public equity value investing, leveraged buyouts, acquisitions, and distressed situations."
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline go4mars

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strangely enough I happened across these two studies on an Air-Launched LV that just "happen" to have a really, really similar Carrier Aircraft in the Eclipse:
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19940020540_1994020540.pdf
Indeed.  Page 12 of chapter 1 has an uncanny diagram that perhaps most people would mistake for Allen's Stratolaunch at a glance. 
Elasmotherium; hurlyburly Doggerlandic Jentilak steeds insouciantly gallop in viridescent taiga, eluding deluginal Burckle's abyssal excavation.

 

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