n January 1st, 2024, I tweeted a set of polls and wanted to see how well we in the spaceflight community could predict what would happen in 2024... results were... well, let's find out!TAKE THE 2025 POLL NOW! - https://x.com/Erdayast...Here were last year's polls so you can play along and see how you did! - https://twitter.com/erdayastronaut/status/1741924066204782932
Quote from: AmigaClone on 11/20/2023 11:53 amHere is an update of how my 2024 predictions have been turning out as of 21 October 2024. Predictions that have come true already.Predictions that I underestimated something.Predictions that are partially true but I overestimated another part.Failed prediction.Crewed Launches / Space StationsIn this section I scored 14 out of 21 or 66 2/3%QuoteSuborbital Crewed Launches (2/2)- Blue Origin resumes space tourism flights aboard New Shepard. This may occur after at least one more uncrewed New Shepard flight.- Virgin Galactic flies VSS Unity twice without any issues before it's retirement.Orbital Crewed Launches - SpaceX will launch five Crew Dragon missions (Axion-3, Axion-4, Polaris Dawn, SpX-Crew 8 and SpX-Crew 9). (4/6) - only four Crew Dragon missions in 2024 with Axion-4 being postponed to 2025.- Michael Lopez-Alegria will become the first astronaut to reach the ISS twice on board a Crew Dragon. (1/1)- Jareed Isaacman will become the first astronaut to launch twice on a Crew Dragon that doesn't dock to the ISS. (1/1)- Polaris Dawn will launch either in Q2 or Q3 2024 and complete most of it's announced objectives. (1/1)- Russia will launch two or three crewed Soyuz missions and perform at least one partial crew rotation at the ISS. (1/1) - only two crewed missions- China will launch two or three crewed Shenzhou with at least two crew rotations at their Tiangong station. (1/1) - only two crewed missions- Boeing Starliner CFT will successfully dock with the ISS. At the time Boeing officials may express hope to be launching their first operational mission later in 2024, but that is pushed back to no earlier than Q1 2025. (2/3) By the time Boeing CFT launched, it was too late to expect an operational mission in 2024. Earliest operational Starliner mission Q42025.- Arthemis II is delayed to 2025 after NASA officials spending most of 2024 insisting it will be ready to launch in November 2024. 09 January 2024 - NASA delays Arthemis II to 2025 The announcement of the delay was at least 6 months earlier than expected- IRSO will launch at least one uncrewed Gaganyaan capsule on an orbital mission while preparing for a crewed launch no earlier than 2025. Update 6 May 2024 - Orbital uncrewed Gaganyaan missions appear to be delayed to 2025.- The four orbital crewed vehicles that I predict will launch with a crew in 2024 (Crew Dragon, Soyuz, Shenzhou, and Starliner) will collectively have two achievements. (0/2)Quote- Between ten and twelve crewed launches. - 9 crewed orbital missions.Note: There have been four times that there has been ten or more crewed launches in a year. 1985 saw 11 crewed launches while 1992, 1994, and 1997 each saw 10 launches.- The 32+ individuals reaching orbit in 2024 will be the most individuals reaching orbit since 2009 when the Space Shuttle was still flying. - only 28 orbital travelers(Note: Depending on the number of individuals on board New Shepard tourist flights in 2024, there is a chance for a new record of number of individuals reaching space in 2024. SpaceX-related predictions (mostly similar to my 2023 predictions in this area):29.5 out of 38Quote1) SpaceX will launch their Falcon 9 successfully between 130 and 150 times. I predict that Falcon Heavy and Starship will launch at least three times each in 2024. (2/3) as of 21 October 20241.1) The numbers above would see SpaceX breaking several records they have set in 2023.1.2) List of orbital launch records in a year broken (list of launch vehicles involved): (7/8)» Most launches by a single launch provider in a year: SpaceX (Falcon 9 Block 5, Falcon Heavy, and Starship). (1/1) - Total 138 (132-F9, 2-FH, and 4-SS)» Most Successful launches by a single launch provider in a year: SpaceX. (1/1) - Total 137 (131-F9, 2-FH, and 4-SS)» Most launches by a single launch vehicle family in a year: Falcon 9 family (Falcon 9 Block 5 and Falcon Heavy). (1/1) - Total 134 (132-F9 and 2-FH)» Most Successful launches by a single launch vehicle family in a year: Falcon 9 family. (1/1) - Total 133 (131-F9 and 2-FH)» Most launches by a single launch vehicle in a year: Falcon 9 Block 5. (1/1) - 132 Falcon 9 launches» Most Successful launches by a single launch vehicle in a year: Falcon 9 Block 5. (1/1) - 131 Successful Falcon 9 launches Note: At least one Starship launch will be considered less than successful. There also might be a less than successful launch involving a Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy. (1/2) Starlink flight 9-3 failure1.3) Record number of orbital launches from one pad: SLC-40 with 80+ Falcon 9 launches. (0/1)1.4) Payload mass placed into orbit in a year: (3/3)» Most satellite payload mass deployed from launch vehicle owned and operated by a single company: SpaceX.» Most satellite payload mass deployed from launch vehicle belonging to a single family: Falcon 9 family.» Most satellite payload mass deployed from a single launch vehicle: Falcon 9. Note: Starship in any of it's variants would not qualify as 'deployed mass'. Fuel transferred between two Starships (any variant) would qualify as 'deployed mass'.2) SpaceX company records will be set in the following categories. (9/9)2.1) Launch pad refurbishment (time spent between two launches from a single launch pad. This will not beat the current world record between two crewed launches on the same pad.) (1/1) for SLC40.2.2) Downtime between 3, 4, and 5 launches from the same launch pad. (3/3)2.2) Fastest booster refurbishment - might not result in the least time between two launches for that booster. (1/1) for B1080.2.3) Time between 2, 3, 4, and 5 launches using multiple launch pads. (4/4) with 1:05:00 between two launches on different launch pads, less than 16:16:00 for three launches on three different launch pads, 43:56:00 for four launches on four pads, 131:11:00 for five launches on four pads.3) Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy events. (5.5/6)3.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach the 20 launch milestone in 2024. As of 25 December 2023 there are three active boosters with 17 flights each. (1/1) Several boosters reached the 20 launch milestone in 2024.3.2) A Falcon 9 booster will be launched 10 times in 2024. (1/1) Booster B1076, B1078, and B1080 each launched 10 times in 2024.3.3) Studies will begin studying the viability of launching a Falcon 9 booster 25 times. (.5/1) SpaceX is in the process of certifying boosters for up to 40 flights.3.4) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during either a failed landing attempt or between a successful landing and the booster being successfully transported to it's refurbishment site. (1/1) Booster B1062.23 failed on landing after successfully launching Starlink 8-6 to orbit.3.5) SpaceX will expend more Falcon 9 boosters or Falcon Heavy side boosters than are lost due to mishaps. (1/1) 2 expended F9 boosters, 2 expended FH side boosters vs 1 lost on landing.3.6) SpaceX will not attempt to recover any Falcon Heavy center cores. (1/1)(4) Starship (5/8)4.1) Starship will complete a test mission in the first half of 2024. (1/1) 4.2) Besides the test mission, Starship will launch up to four more orbital missions from Boca Chica. (1/1) All 4 launches were test launches so technically true.4.3) Depending on the success of those missions, up to two possible Starship orbital launches from LC39A in the forth quarter of 2024. (1/1) 0 is up to 2 so technically true.4.4) At least one attempt to catch the Super Heavy Booster will be made during a Boca Chica launch attempt. (1/1) ITF-5 was caught successfully4.5) SpaceX will attempt to recover the Starship Stage at least once. (0/1)4.6) The only operational Starship missions in 2024 would involve the deployment of the full size Starlink Gen2 satellites. (0/1)4.7) Attempt to transfer fuel between two Starships will be postponed to 2025. (1/1)4. At least one attempt to launch Starship V2.0 will be made. (0/1)5) Starlink (0/2)5.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be considered complete by the FCC before the end of Q2 2024.5.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship will begin.6) SpaceX will take possession of SLC-6 and start refurbishment of that site to allow launching F9 and possibly FH. This refurbishment will last until h2 of 2025. (1/2)Rocket Lab Predictions:Quote1) Rocket Lab will set a new company record for Electron orbital launches in 2024. (1/1) - 142) One of Rocket Lab's three launch sites will be used for a record 8th time in a year. (1/1) - Mahia 1B - 9 as of 20 October 20243) Neuton's first flight will be officially delayed until 2025. (1/1) Planned maiden orbital launches:(5/6)Quote1) At least one launch vehicle announced as being in development prior to 31 December 2019 with a first launch scheduled to occur prior to 31 December 2023 according to the same announcement will make it's first orbital launch attempt in 2024. (1/1) Vulcan-Centaur, Arianne 6 among others.2) At least one launch vehicle announced as being in development on or after 1 January 2020 with a first launch scheduled to occur prior to 31 December 2023 according to the same announcement will make it's first orbital launch attempt in 2024. ((0/1) as of 21 October 20243) Not all launch vehicles making their first orbital launch attempt in 2024 will successfully reach the intended orbit.3.1) At least one company responsible for an orbital launch vehicle that failed to reach it's intended orbit would claim that, although the mission was considered either a partial or complete failure by some members of the non-space focused press, internally that company considered it to be at least a partial success by having met what they considered the most challenging goals for that first mission (1/1)4) At least one orbital launch vehicle making it debut in 2024 that reached orbit on it's first launch will have a less than successful second launch. (1/1) - Vulcan-Centaur flight 2 had issues with one of it's GEM63XL boosters although the rest of the ship overcame that issue.5) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2023, was still publicly expected to launch in 2024 based on information provided by the manufacturer, will be either cancelled or officially be postponed to 2025 or later. (1/1)6) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new launch vehicle didn't perform according to their expectations. "Startup" orbital launch vehicle companies:The term "Startup" for this post would include those companies with less than ten orbital launches. (?/2)Quote1) At least one company which had announced plans to build and launch an orbital launch vehicle will close it's doors in 2024 before it's first launch.2) At least one "startup" orbital launch vehicle company that closed it's doors between 2018 and the end of 2024 will become the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.General:(10/10)Quote1) At least one but not all launch providers who announce a goal of launching their launch vehicles a certain number of orbital missions in 2024 will miss their initial goal. (1/1) - SpaceX2) At least one but not all launch providers that increase their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal. (1/1) - SpaceX2.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve the lower of their original goal and their revised goal. (1/1) - SpaceX3) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2023 has more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch. This might not involve a loss of payload on that mission. (1/1) - Falcon 9 launch of Starlink 9-3 failed ending a string of 325 consecutive successful launches.4) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2024 because of lawsuits involving them directly or indirectly, or computer animations of proposed projects than they will for their own orbital launches. (1/1)5) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2024 that doesn't specifically mention SpaceX, one of it's launch vehicles, or one of it's facilities in the original post will have someone propose a solution for for a problem mentioned topic based on SpaceX and it's launch vehicles. (1/1) - Gimmie6) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2024 will be completely off topic within a month of the original post. (1/1) - Gimmie7) There will be a 'Predictions for 2025' topic started before the end of 2024. Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.9) Some correct predictions made in this topic that occur in 2024 will see a majority of those contributing to this topic expressing their desire that particular prediction hadn't come true. (1/1)
Here is an update of how my 2024 predictions have been turning out as of 21 October 2024. Predictions that have come true already.Predictions that I underestimated something.Predictions that are partially true but I overestimated another part.Failed prediction.Crewed Launches / Space StationsIn this section I scored 14 out of 21 or 66 2/3%QuoteSuborbital Crewed Launches (2/2)- Blue Origin resumes space tourism flights aboard New Shepard. This may occur after at least one more uncrewed New Shepard flight.- Virgin Galactic flies VSS Unity twice without any issues before it's retirement.Orbital Crewed Launches - SpaceX will launch five Crew Dragon missions (Axion-3, Axion-4, Polaris Dawn, SpX-Crew 8 and SpX-Crew 9). (4/6) - only four Crew Dragon missions in 2024 with Axion-4 being postponed to 2025.- Michael Lopez-Alegria will become the first astronaut to reach the ISS twice on board a Crew Dragon. (1/1)- Jareed Isaacman will become the first astronaut to launch twice on a Crew Dragon that doesn't dock to the ISS. (1/1)- Polaris Dawn will launch either in Q2 or Q3 2024 and complete most of it's announced objectives. (1/1)- Russia will launch two or three crewed Soyuz missions and perform at least one partial crew rotation at the ISS. (1/1) - only two crewed missions- China will launch two or three crewed Shenzhou with at least two crew rotations at their Tiangong station. (1/1) - only two crewed missions- Boeing Starliner CFT will successfully dock with the ISS. At the time Boeing officials may express hope to be launching their first operational mission later in 2024, but that is pushed back to no earlier than Q1 2025. (2/3) By the time Boeing CFT launched, it was too late to expect an operational mission in 2024. Earliest operational Starliner mission Q42025.- Arthemis II is delayed to 2025 after NASA officials spending most of 2024 insisting it will be ready to launch in November 2024. 09 January 2024 - NASA delays Arthemis II to 2025 The announcement of the delay was at least 6 months earlier than expected- IRSO will launch at least one uncrewed Gaganyaan capsule on an orbital mission while preparing for a crewed launch no earlier than 2025. Update 6 May 2024 - Orbital uncrewed Gaganyaan missions appear to be delayed to 2025.- The four orbital crewed vehicles that I predict will launch with a crew in 2024 (Crew Dragon, Soyuz, Shenzhou, and Starliner) will collectively have two achievements. (0/2)Quote- Between ten and twelve crewed launches. - 9 crewed orbital missions.Note: There have been four times that there has been ten or more crewed launches in a year. 1985 saw 11 crewed launches while 1992, 1994, and 1997 each saw 10 launches.- The 32+ individuals reaching orbit in 2024 will be the most individuals reaching orbit since 2009 when the Space Shuttle was still flying. - only 28 orbital travelers(Note: Depending on the number of individuals on board New Shepard tourist flights in 2024, there is a chance for a new record of number of individuals reaching space in 2024. SpaceX-related predictions (mostly similar to my 2023 predictions in this area):29.5 out of 38Quote1) SpaceX will launch their Falcon 9 successfully between 130 and 150 times. I predict that Falcon Heavy and Starship will launch at least three times each in 2024. (2/3) as of 21 October 20241.1) The numbers above would see SpaceX breaking several records they have set in 2023.1.2) List of orbital launch records in a year broken (list of launch vehicles involved): (7/8)» Most launches by a single launch provider in a year: SpaceX (Falcon 9 Block 5, Falcon Heavy, and Starship). (1/1) - Total 138 (132-F9, 2-FH, and 4-SS)» Most Successful launches by a single launch provider in a year: SpaceX. (1/1) - Total 137 (131-F9, 2-FH, and 4-SS)» Most launches by a single launch vehicle family in a year: Falcon 9 family (Falcon 9 Block 5 and Falcon Heavy). (1/1) - Total 134 (132-F9 and 2-FH)» Most Successful launches by a single launch vehicle family in a year: Falcon 9 family. (1/1) - Total 133 (131-F9 and 2-FH)» Most launches by a single launch vehicle in a year: Falcon 9 Block 5. (1/1) - 132 Falcon 9 launches» Most Successful launches by a single launch vehicle in a year: Falcon 9 Block 5. (1/1) - 131 Successful Falcon 9 launches Note: At least one Starship launch will be considered less than successful. There also might be a less than successful launch involving a Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy. (1/2) Starlink flight 9-3 failure1.3) Record number of orbital launches from one pad: SLC-40 with 80+ Falcon 9 launches. (0/1)1.4) Payload mass placed into orbit in a year: (3/3)» Most satellite payload mass deployed from launch vehicle owned and operated by a single company: SpaceX.» Most satellite payload mass deployed from launch vehicle belonging to a single family: Falcon 9 family.» Most satellite payload mass deployed from a single launch vehicle: Falcon 9. Note: Starship in any of it's variants would not qualify as 'deployed mass'. Fuel transferred between two Starships (any variant) would qualify as 'deployed mass'.2) SpaceX company records will be set in the following categories. (9/9)2.1) Launch pad refurbishment (time spent between two launches from a single launch pad. This will not beat the current world record between two crewed launches on the same pad.) (1/1) for SLC40.2.2) Downtime between 3, 4, and 5 launches from the same launch pad. (3/3)2.2) Fastest booster refurbishment - might not result in the least time between two launches for that booster. (1/1) for B1080.2.3) Time between 2, 3, 4, and 5 launches using multiple launch pads. (4/4) with 1:05:00 between two launches on different launch pads, less than 16:16:00 for three launches on three different launch pads, 43:56:00 for four launches on four pads, 131:11:00 for five launches on four pads.3) Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy events. (5.5/6)3.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach the 20 launch milestone in 2024. As of 25 December 2023 there are three active boosters with 17 flights each. (1/1) Several boosters reached the 20 launch milestone in 2024.3.2) A Falcon 9 booster will be launched 10 times in 2024. (1/1) Booster B1076, B1078, and B1080 each launched 10 times in 2024.3.3) Studies will begin studying the viability of launching a Falcon 9 booster 25 times. (.5/1) SpaceX is in the process of certifying boosters for up to 40 flights.3.4) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during either a failed landing attempt or between a successful landing and the booster being successfully transported to it's refurbishment site. (1/1) Booster B1062.23 failed on landing after successfully launching Starlink 8-6 to orbit.3.5) SpaceX will expend more Falcon 9 boosters or Falcon Heavy side boosters than are lost due to mishaps. (1/1) 2 expended F9 boosters, 2 expended FH side boosters vs 1 lost on landing.3.6) SpaceX will not attempt to recover any Falcon Heavy center cores. (1/1)(4) Starship (5/8)4.1) Starship will complete a test mission in the first half of 2024. (1/1) 4.2) Besides the test mission, Starship will launch up to four more orbital missions from Boca Chica. (1/1) All 4 launches were test launches so technically true.4.3) Depending on the success of those missions, up to two possible Starship orbital launches from LC39A in the forth quarter of 2024. (1/1) 0 is up to 2 so technically true.4.4) At least one attempt to catch the Super Heavy Booster will be made during a Boca Chica launch attempt. (1/1) ITF-5 was caught successfully4.5) SpaceX will attempt to recover the Starship Stage at least once. (0/1)4.6) The only operational Starship missions in 2024 would involve the deployment of the full size Starlink Gen2 satellites. (0/1)4.7) Attempt to transfer fuel between two Starships will be postponed to 2025. (1/1)4. At least one attempt to launch Starship V2.0 will be made. (0/1)5) Starlink (0/2)5.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be considered complete by the FCC before the end of Q2 2024.5.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship will begin.6) SpaceX will take possession of SLC-6 and start refurbishment of that site to allow launching F9 and possibly FH. This refurbishment will last until h2 of 2025. (1/2)Rocket Lab Predictions:Quote1) Rocket Lab will set a new company record for Electron orbital launches in 2024. (1/1) - 142) One of Rocket Lab's three launch sites will be used for a record 8th time in a year. (1/1) - Mahia 1B - 9 as of 20 October 20243) Neuton's first flight will be officially delayed until 2025. (1/1) Planned maiden orbital launches:(5/6)Quote1) At least one launch vehicle announced as being in development prior to 31 December 2019 with a first launch scheduled to occur prior to 31 December 2023 according to the same announcement will make it's first orbital launch attempt in 2024. (1/1) Vulcan-Centaur, Arianne 6 among others.2) At least one launch vehicle announced as being in development on or after 1 January 2020 with a first launch scheduled to occur prior to 31 December 2023 according to the same announcement will make it's first orbital launch attempt in 2024. ((0/1) as of 21 October 20243) Not all launch vehicles making their first orbital launch attempt in 2024 will successfully reach the intended orbit.3.1) At least one company responsible for an orbital launch vehicle that failed to reach it's intended orbit would claim that, although the mission was considered either a partial or complete failure by some members of the non-space focused press, internally that company considered it to be at least a partial success by having met what they considered the most challenging goals for that first mission (1/1)4) At least one orbital launch vehicle making it debut in 2024 that reached orbit on it's first launch will have a less than successful second launch. (1/1) - Vulcan-Centaur flight 2 had issues with one of it's GEM63XL boosters although the rest of the ship overcame that issue.5) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2023, was still publicly expected to launch in 2024 based on information provided by the manufacturer, will be either cancelled or officially be postponed to 2025 or later. (1/1)6) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new launch vehicle didn't perform according to their expectations. "Startup" orbital launch vehicle companies:The term "Startup" for this post would include those companies with less than ten orbital launches. (?/2)Quote1) At least one company which had announced plans to build and launch an orbital launch vehicle will close it's doors in 2024 before it's first launch.2) At least one "startup" orbital launch vehicle company that closed it's doors between 2018 and the end of 2024 will become the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.General:(10/10)Quote1) At least one but not all launch providers who announce a goal of launching their launch vehicles a certain number of orbital missions in 2024 will miss their initial goal. (1/1) - SpaceX2) At least one but not all launch providers that increase their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal. (1/1) - SpaceX2.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve the lower of their original goal and their revised goal. (1/1) - SpaceX3) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2023 has more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch. This might not involve a loss of payload on that mission. (1/1) - Falcon 9 launch of Starlink 9-3 failed ending a string of 325 consecutive successful launches.4) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2024 because of lawsuits involving them directly or indirectly, or computer animations of proposed projects than they will for their own orbital launches. (1/1)5) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2024 that doesn't specifically mention SpaceX, one of it's launch vehicles, or one of it's facilities in the original post will have someone propose a solution for for a problem mentioned topic based on SpaceX and it's launch vehicles. (1/1) - Gimmie6) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2024 will be completely off topic within a month of the original post. (1/1) - Gimmie7) There will be a 'Predictions for 2025' topic started before the end of 2024. Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.9) Some correct predictions made in this topic that occur in 2024 will see a majority of those contributing to this topic expressing their desire that particular prediction hadn't come true. (1/1)
Suborbital Crewed Launches (2/2)- Blue Origin resumes space tourism flights aboard New Shepard. This may occur after at least one more uncrewed New Shepard flight.- Virgin Galactic flies VSS Unity twice without any issues before it's retirement.Orbital Crewed Launches - SpaceX will launch five Crew Dragon missions (Axion-3, Axion-4, Polaris Dawn, SpX-Crew 8 and SpX-Crew 9). (4/6) - only four Crew Dragon missions in 2024 with Axion-4 being postponed to 2025.- Michael Lopez-Alegria will become the first astronaut to reach the ISS twice on board a Crew Dragon. (1/1)- Jareed Isaacman will become the first astronaut to launch twice on a Crew Dragon that doesn't dock to the ISS. (1/1)- Polaris Dawn will launch either in Q2 or Q3 2024 and complete most of it's announced objectives. (1/1)- Russia will launch two or three crewed Soyuz missions and perform at least one partial crew rotation at the ISS. (1/1) - only two crewed missions- China will launch two or three crewed Shenzhou with at least two crew rotations at their Tiangong station. (1/1) - only two crewed missions- Boeing Starliner CFT will successfully dock with the ISS. At the time Boeing officials may express hope to be launching their first operational mission later in 2024, but that is pushed back to no earlier than Q1 2025. (2/3) By the time Boeing CFT launched, it was too late to expect an operational mission in 2024. Earliest operational Starliner mission Q42025.- Arthemis II is delayed to 2025 after NASA officials spending most of 2024 insisting it will be ready to launch in November 2024. 09 January 2024 - NASA delays Arthemis II to 2025 The announcement of the delay was at least 6 months earlier than expected- IRSO will launch at least one uncrewed Gaganyaan capsule on an orbital mission while preparing for a crewed launch no earlier than 2025. Update 6 May 2024 - Orbital uncrewed Gaganyaan missions appear to be delayed to 2025.- The four orbital crewed vehicles that I predict will launch with a crew in 2024 (Crew Dragon, Soyuz, Shenzhou, and Starliner) will collectively have two achievements. (0/2)Quote- Between ten and twelve crewed launches. - 9 crewed orbital missions.Note: There have been four times that there has been ten or more crewed launches in a year. 1985 saw 11 crewed launches while 1992, 1994, and 1997 each saw 10 launches.- The 32+ individuals reaching orbit in 2024 will be the most individuals reaching orbit since 2009 when the Space Shuttle was still flying. - only 28 orbital travelers(Note: Depending on the number of individuals on board New Shepard tourist flights in 2024, there is a chance for a new record of number of individuals reaching space in 2024.
- Between ten and twelve crewed launches. - 9 crewed orbital missions.Note: There have been four times that there has been ten or more crewed launches in a year. 1985 saw 11 crewed launches while 1992, 1994, and 1997 each saw 10 launches.- The 32+ individuals reaching orbit in 2024 will be the most individuals reaching orbit since 2009 when the Space Shuttle was still flying. - only 28 orbital travelers(
1) SpaceX will launch their Falcon 9 successfully between 130 and 150 times. I predict that Falcon Heavy and Starship will launch at least three times each in 2024. (2/3) as of 21 October 20241.1) The numbers above would see SpaceX breaking several records they have set in 2023.1.2) List of orbital launch records in a year broken (list of launch vehicles involved): (7/8)» Most launches by a single launch provider in a year: SpaceX (Falcon 9 Block 5, Falcon Heavy, and Starship). (1/1) - Total 138 (132-F9, 2-FH, and 4-SS)» Most Successful launches by a single launch provider in a year: SpaceX. (1/1) - Total 137 (131-F9, 2-FH, and 4-SS)» Most launches by a single launch vehicle family in a year: Falcon 9 family (Falcon 9 Block 5 and Falcon Heavy). (1/1) - Total 134 (132-F9 and 2-FH)» Most Successful launches by a single launch vehicle family in a year: Falcon 9 family. (1/1) - Total 133 (131-F9 and 2-FH)» Most launches by a single launch vehicle in a year: Falcon 9 Block 5. (1/1) - 132 Falcon 9 launches» Most Successful launches by a single launch vehicle in a year: Falcon 9 Block 5. (1/1) - 131 Successful Falcon 9 launches Note: At least one Starship launch will be considered less than successful. There also might be a less than successful launch involving a Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy. (1/2) Starlink flight 9-3 failure1.3) Record number of orbital launches from one pad: SLC-40 with 80+ Falcon 9 launches. (0/1)1.4) Payload mass placed into orbit in a year: (3/3)» Most satellite payload mass deployed from launch vehicle owned and operated by a single company: SpaceX.» Most satellite payload mass deployed from launch vehicle belonging to a single family: Falcon 9 family.» Most satellite payload mass deployed from a single launch vehicle: Falcon 9. Note: Starship in any of it's variants would not qualify as 'deployed mass'. Fuel transferred between two Starships (any variant) would qualify as 'deployed mass'.2) SpaceX company records will be set in the following categories. (9/9)2.1) Launch pad refurbishment (time spent between two launches from a single launch pad. This will not beat the current world record between two crewed launches on the same pad.) (1/1) for SLC40.2.2) Downtime between 3, 4, and 5 launches from the same launch pad. (3/3)2.2) Fastest booster refurbishment - might not result in the least time between two launches for that booster. (1/1) for B1080.2.3) Time between 2, 3, 4, and 5 launches using multiple launch pads. (4/4) with 1:05:00 between two launches on different launch pads, less than 16:16:00 for three launches on three different launch pads, 43:56:00 for four launches on four pads, 131:11:00 for five launches on four pads.3) Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy events. (5.5/6)3.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach the 20 launch milestone in 2024. As of 25 December 2023 there are three active boosters with 17 flights each. (1/1) Several boosters reached the 20 launch milestone in 2024.3.2) A Falcon 9 booster will be launched 10 times in 2024. (1/1) Booster B1076, B1078, and B1080 each launched 10 times in 2024.3.3) Studies will begin studying the viability of launching a Falcon 9 booster 25 times. (.5/1) SpaceX is in the process of certifying boosters for up to 40 flights.3.4) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during either a failed landing attempt or between a successful landing and the booster being successfully transported to it's refurbishment site. (1/1) Booster B1062.23 failed on landing after successfully launching Starlink 8-6 to orbit.3.5) SpaceX will expend more Falcon 9 boosters or Falcon Heavy side boosters than are lost due to mishaps. (1/1) 2 expended F9 boosters, 2 expended FH side boosters vs 1 lost on landing.3.6) SpaceX will not attempt to recover any Falcon Heavy center cores. (1/1)(4) Starship (5/8)4.1) Starship will complete a test mission in the first half of 2024. (1/1) 4.2) Besides the test mission, Starship will launch up to four more orbital missions from Boca Chica. (1/1) All 4 launches were test launches so technically true.4.3) Depending on the success of those missions, up to two possible Starship orbital launches from LC39A in the forth quarter of 2024. (1/1) 0 is up to 2 so technically true.4.4) At least one attempt to catch the Super Heavy Booster will be made during a Boca Chica launch attempt. (1/1) ITF-5 was caught successfully4.5) SpaceX will attempt to recover the Starship Stage at least once. (0/1)4.6) The only operational Starship missions in 2024 would involve the deployment of the full size Starlink Gen2 satellites. (0/1)4.7) Attempt to transfer fuel between two Starships will be postponed to 2025. (1/1)4. At least one attempt to launch Starship V2.0 will be made. (0/1)5) Starlink (0/2)5.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be considered complete by the FCC before the end of Q2 2024.5.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship will begin.6) SpaceX will take possession of SLC-6 and start refurbishment of that site to allow launching F9 and possibly FH. This refurbishment will last until h2 of 2025. (1/2)
1) Rocket Lab will set a new company record for Electron orbital launches in 2024. (1/1) - 142) One of Rocket Lab's three launch sites will be used for a record 8th time in a year. (1/1) - Mahia 1B - 9 as of 20 October 20243) Neuton's first flight will be officially delayed until 2025. (1/1)
1) At least one launch vehicle announced as being in development prior to 31 December 2019 with a first launch scheduled to occur prior to 31 December 2023 according to the same announcement will make it's first orbital launch attempt in 2024. (1/1) Vulcan-Centaur, Arianne 6 among others.2) At least one launch vehicle announced as being in development on or after 1 January 2020 with a first launch scheduled to occur prior to 31 December 2023 according to the same announcement will make it's first orbital launch attempt in 2024. ((0/1) as of 21 October 20243) Not all launch vehicles making their first orbital launch attempt in 2024 will successfully reach the intended orbit.3.1) At least one company responsible for an orbital launch vehicle that failed to reach it's intended orbit would claim that, although the mission was considered either a partial or complete failure by some members of the non-space focused press, internally that company considered it to be at least a partial success by having met what they considered the most challenging goals for that first mission (1/1)4) At least one orbital launch vehicle making it debut in 2024 that reached orbit on it's first launch will have a less than successful second launch. (1/1) - Vulcan-Centaur flight 2 had issues with one of it's GEM63XL boosters although the rest of the ship overcame that issue.5) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2023, was still publicly expected to launch in 2024 based on information provided by the manufacturer, will be either cancelled or officially be postponed to 2025 or later. (1/1)6) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new launch vehicle didn't perform according to their expectations.
1) At least one company which had announced plans to build and launch an orbital launch vehicle will close it's doors in 2024 before it's first launch.2) At least one "startup" orbital launch vehicle company that closed it's doors between 2018 and the end of 2024 will become the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.
1) At least one but not all launch providers who announce a goal of launching their launch vehicles a certain number of orbital missions in 2024 will miss their initial goal. (1/1) - SpaceX2) At least one but not all launch providers that increase their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal. (1/1) - SpaceX2.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve the lower of their original goal and their revised goal. (1/1) - SpaceX3) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2023 has more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch. This might not involve a loss of payload on that mission. (1/1) - Falcon 9 launch of Starlink 9-3 failed ending a string of 325 consecutive successful launches.4) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2024 because of lawsuits involving them directly or indirectly, or computer animations of proposed projects than they will for their own orbital launches. (1/1)5) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2024 that doesn't specifically mention SpaceX, one of it's launch vehicles, or one of it's facilities in the original post will have someone propose a solution for for a problem mentioned topic based on SpaceX and it's launch vehicles. (1/1) - Gimmie6) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2024 will be completely off topic within a month of the original post. (1/1) - Gimmie7) There will be a 'Predictions for 2025' topic started before the end of 2024. Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.9) Some correct predictions made in this topic that occur in 2024 will see a majority of those contributing to this topic expressing their desire that particular prediction hadn't come true. (1/1)
SpaceX1 Starship next launch in Q1 1a Super Heavy does intended return towards Boca Chica and hovers over water before ditching in water Did this on last flight - not Q1 1b Starship successfull reentry near Hawaii Wrong - Just not done in Q12 Second Starship launch of 2024 before end of Q2 2a Attempt to grab Super Heavy with Mechazilla fails Wrong - 1st attempt worked and second failed 2b Starship stays in orbit for multiple orbits and lands successfully Wrong - Multiple orbits not attempted yet 3 Third Starship launch of 2024 before end of Q3 3a Attempt to grab Super Heavy with Mechazilla fails, but closer to success Wrong - didn't exactly happen this way 4 Fourth Starship launch of 2024 before end of Q4 3a Attempt to grab Super Heavy with Mechazilla succeeds Claiming this one 3b Starship stays in orbit for two weeks and lands successfully Wrong - Multiple long duration flight not yet attempted 5 No Starship refueling attempts in 2024 CorrectBlue Origin1 New Glenn first flight on time Wrong - no flight attempt in 2024 1a Stage separation works, but first stage crashes on landing 1b Second stage successfully releases payload2 Blue Moon Development 1a continues but slips behind schedule as more expensive to develop than expected. Probably true3 Orbital Reef 3a Becomes a back burner low priority project while New Glenn and Blue Moon require more resources Probably true4 Buys ULA 4a Wins bidding war for ULA 4b No serious integration of companies in 2024 Wrong - Nobody wants to buy ULAfor a price demanded Artemis II1 Flies in December 1a No major problems - successful shakedown cruise Wrong - Didn't see heat shield and other problems Private Space Stations Correct 1a Axiom makes the most progress 1b All others slow down as no significant proven commercial demand yet NASA Administrator1 Bill Nelson on way out at end of year Correct 1a If Democrat wins presidency, decides age 82 is time to go 1b If Republican wins, he's on way out - no choice Virgin Galactic1 Still don't care Correct