Predictions 2024

[Skamp_X]

Gonna be somewhat of a repeat from last year,
Artimis 2 set back to 2025.
5 Starship flight's.
Shipping of premade sections of star ship or heavy between Boca and Cape becomes a thing.
2nd Tower at boca made without launch platform for catching only (at first).
No catch attempts in 2025.
First real signs of full lunar mockup version starship.
Starship version (2? or 3) featuring landing legs.

First exomoon confirmed.
Another dwarf sized planet is found in the outer solar system.

Last one, because i'm always wrong on these ill predict the worse in hopes i will be wrong:
-Contact with voyager 1 is not re-established , attempts still going on at the end of 2024

[DistantTemple]

Here's hoping!
>5 Starship launches.
>2 Starship with starlinks.
Tank - to - tank (in one ss demonstrated)
Ship to ship fuel transfer demonstrated (not full load)
>134 Falcon launches
SX completes second spaceship tower at Starbase.
SX launces one ss from the cape.
SX begins (or begins to adopt and update)  another launch site either at The Cape or Vandenberg SFB
SX awarded an interplanetary mission.
Blue origin launches New Glenn
Blue buys ULA
Kuiper gets an extension on its constellation deployment, but also orders three more F9 launches.
NASA agrees to Jared Isacman and SX intervention with Hubble after further faults and downtime.
Virgin Galactic flies paying passengers on eight missions.
SpaceX sends a Tesla Bot into space.
The limit of 5 annual Spaceship launches from Boca Chica is increased or lifted.
SpaceX begins work on a launch site in another country (probably Australia)
Biden administration outright praises SpaceX for their amazing transformation of the American space industry, including EM as its visionary founder.

[meekGee]

Gonna be somewhat of a repeat from last year,
Artimis 2 set back to 2025.
5 Starship flight's.
Shipping of premade sections of star ship or heavy between Boca and Cape becomes a thing.
2nd Tower at boca made without launch platform for catching only (at first).
No catch attempts in 2025.
First real signs of full lunar mockup version starship.
Starship version (2? or 3) featuring landing legs.

First exomoon confirmed.
Another dwarf sized planet is found in the outer solar system.

Last one, because i'm always wrong on these ill predict the worse in hopes i will be wrong:
-Contact with voyager 1 is not re-established , attempts still going on at the end of 2024

Nice!
Basically, yup!

[punder]

Biden administration outright praises SpaceX for their amazing transformation of the American space industry, including EM as its visionary founder.

HA HA! You have a wicked wit, Sir. Also, NASA launches the SNWBL mission to Hell, where it not only survives and returns data, but begins to reproduce.

My “predictions”
BO buys ULA, promptly slows down again.
At least two additional federal agencies file charges against, sue, what have you, Musk and/or SpaceX.
Artemis II doesn’t fly this year.
Polaris Dawn flies successfully in July.
Three Starship flights, all orbital, successful internal fuel transfer, one Starlink deployment.
Second BC tower completed but not used before end of the year.
Everything else goes to 2025 Q1.

Edit, one down, one to go! https://spacenews.com/national-labor-relations-board-issues-complaint-over-spacex-employee-firings/

And the sky’s the limit!

[mordroberon]

In the style of Scott Alexander, predictions with confidence level

99%
- SpaceX launches more than 120 rockets
- Vulcan Centaur and Ariane 6 both have sucessful launches
- Peregrine and IM-1 and -2 lunar missions are successful
- Delta IV Heavy will have its final launch, it will all go according to plan
- Starship is used to deploy a payload or starlink satellites in orbit

90%
- At least 3 Starship launches
- At least 3 Falcon heavy launches
- SpaceX launches more than 130 rockets
- Starship will reach orbit ( flight profile progresses beyond current IFT tests)
- SpaceX will attempt recovery of the Superheavy Booster
- Vulcan Centaur launches more than once
- Dream Chaser will have a nominal test

75%
- SpaceX launches more than 140 rockets
- New Glenn launches nominally
- Crewed Starliner flies this year
- Artemis 2 will be delayed until next year
- Polaris Dawn happens, after at least one delay
- Neutron Rocket does not launch
- Neutron Rocket sucessful static fire in the second half of the year

[edkyle99]

I'll guess ("predict") that there will be more orbital launch attempts worldwide during 2024 than 2023's 221 launches. 

I will also guess that about 5% of worldwide launch attempts will fail. 

SpaceX and ULA have been beating the long-run average orbital failure odds for awhile now.  Nothing lasts forever in this business.  2024 might be the year that the odds run out for at least one of them.

 - Ed Kyle

[Callmeishmael]

I largely agree with the initial post, but I do think that BO will have a successful launch in Q3 or Q4 of 2024

[Zander the space nerd]

In the style of Scott Alexander, predictions with confidence level
- Peregrine and IM-1 and -2 lunar missions are successful

things are already going wrong.

[mordroberon]

In the style of Scott Alexander, predictions with confidence level
- Peregrine and IM-1 and -2 lunar missions are successful

things are already going wrong.

In retrospect, first lunar landing attempts are pretty hard, should have moved that way down. My first time doing this though, will hope to improve for next year

[Zander the space nerd]

You got the  Artemis 2 delay already 

[sdsds]

Spaceflight Predictions for 2024:
[...]
SLS/Orion:
 - Artemis 2 launch slips to 2Q 2025.

It's only January and already this prediction is proven too optimistic. 

[AmigaClone]

Spaceflight Predictions for 2024:
[...]
SLS/Orion:
 - Artemis 2 launch slips to 2Q 2025.

It's only January and already this prediction is proven too optimistic. 

- Arthemis II is delayed to 2025 after NASA officials spending most of 2024 insisting it will be ready to launch in November 2024.

If anything, I was pessimistic about how long NASA would deny that Arthemis 2 would be delayed to 2025.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Spaceflight Is About To Get HOTTER!

NASASpaceflight
16 Jan 2024
#2024Spaceflight
#EuropeanSpace
#Ariane6

🚀 Embark on a journey with NSF as we explore what 2024 has in store for the world of spaceflight!

🌍 Europe's Comeback: Discover how Europe is gearing up for a resurgence with the debut of Ariane 6, Vega C's return, and the rise of commercial space ventures like RFA One and Argo.

🌌 China's Space Ambitions: Unveil China's impressive launch record, Landspace's ZhuQue-2 successes, and upcoming private sector milestones. Plus, get the latest on Chang’e 6's historic Moon mission.

🇮🇳 India's Spaceflight Leap: Witness India's strides in human spaceflight with Gaganyaan's tests, Chandrayaan-3's lunar success, and ambitious plans for a space station and Moon landing.

🚀 SpaceX's Record Quest: Explore SpaceX's plans for an even busier launch schedule, Starlink's expansion, and the exhilarating prospects for Starship flights.

🇺🇸 US Spaceflight Horizon: Catch up on what's new in the US space sector, from Rocket Lab's ambitious launch targets to ULA's Vulcan debut and Blue Origin's New Glenn progress.

🌐 Global Space Science: Marvel at the scientific endeavors from the James Webb Space Telescope, ESA's Hera mission to Jupiter's moon Europa, and more groundbreaking explorations.

📡 What’s Next? Stay tuned for the latest updates, launches, and developments in the space industry throughout 2024. Will this year indeed set new records in space exploration? Join us as we follow these thrilling endeavors!

[Eric Hedman]

Artemis II
1 Flies in December
   1a No major problems - successful shakedown cruise

Already a fail.  I try to be optimistic about NASA/Artemis.  I never learn.

[scienceguy]

Artificial intelligence will be more prominent, even in spaceflight

https://science.nasa.gov/earth/ai-open-science-climate-change/

got this one

[Kspbutitscursed]

Starship launches 5 times all with starlink sats all reach orbit sucessfully

Well, I was a little bit optimistic IFT-3 did launch sucessfully however we still have a solid chance at 5 to 7 flights this year if *FT*-4 goes well then we might  get a monthly cadence from here out.

note *FT stands for Flight Test*

[JulesVerneATV]

and some on that ExoMoon news

James Webb telescope's 'shocking' discovery may hint at hidden exomoon around 'failed star'
https://www.livescience.com/space/astronomy/james-webb-telescopes-shocking-discovery-may-hint-at-hidden-exomoon-around-failed-star

[AmigaClone]

Here is an update of how my 2024 predictions have been turning out as of 21 October 2024.
Predictions that have come true already.
Predictions that I underestimated something.
Predictions that are partially true but I overestimated another part.
Failed prediction.

Crewed Launches / Space Stations

Suborbital Crewed Launches (2/2)
- Blue Origin resumes space tourism flights aboard New Shepard. This may occur after at least one more uncrewed New Shepard flight.
- Virgin Galactic flies VSS Unity twice without any issues before it's retirement.

Orbital Crewed Launches
- SpaceX will launch five Crew Dragon missions (Axion-3, Axion-4, Polaris Dawn, SpX-Crew 8 and SpX-Crew 9). (.8/1) - only four Crew Dragon missions in 2024 with Axion-4 being postponed to 2025.

- Michael Lopez-Alegria will become the first astronaut to reach the ISS twice on board a Crew Dragon. (1/1)

- Jareed Isaacman will become the first astronaut to launch twice on a Crew Dragon that doesn't dock to the ISS. (1/1)

- Polaris Dawn will launch either in Q2 or Q3 2024 and complete most of it's announced objectives. (1/1)

- Russia will launch two or three crewed Soyuz missions and perform at least one partial crew rotation at the ISS. (.6/1) - only two crewed missions

- China will launch two or three crewed Shenzhou with at least two crew rotations at their Tiangong station. (.6/1) - only two crewed missions

- Boeing Starliner CFT will successfully dock with the ISS. At the time Boeing officials may express hope to be launching their first operational mission later in 2024, but that is pushed back to no earlier than Q1 2025. (2/3) By the time Boeing CFT launched, it was too late to expect an operational mission in 2024. Earliest operational Starliner mission Q42025.

- Arthemis II is delayed to 2025 after NASA officials spending most of 2024 insisting it will be ready to launch in November 2024. 09 January 2024 - NASA delays Arthemis II to 2025 The announcement of the delay was at least 6 months earlier than expected

- IRSO will launch at least one uncrewed Gaganyaan capsule on an orbital mission while preparing for a crewed launch no earlier than 2025. Update 6 May 2024 - Orbital uncrewed Gaganyaan missions appear to be delayed to 2025.

- The four orbital crewed vehicles that I predict will launch with a crew in 2024 (Crew Dragon, Soyuz, Shenzhou, and Starliner) will collectively have two achievements. (0/2)

- Between ten and twelve crewed launches. - As of 21 October 2024 only 8 crewed orbital missions.
Note: There have been four times that there has been ten or more crewed launches in a year. 1985 saw 11 crewed launches while 1992, 1994, and 1997 each saw 10 launches.

- The 32+ individuals reaching orbit in 2024 will be the most individuals reaching orbit since 2009 when the Space Shuttle was still flying. - As of 21 October 2024, only 28 orbital travelers(

Note: Depending on the number of individuals on board New Shepard tourist flights in 2024, there is a chance for a new record of number of individuals reaching space in 2024.

SpaceX-related predictions (mostly similar to my 2023 predictions in this area):

1) SpaceX will launch their Falcon 9 successfully between 130 and 150 times. I predict that Falcon Heavy and Starship will launch at least three times each in 2024. (2/3) as of 21 October 2024

1.1) The numbers above would see SpaceX breaking several records they have set in 2023.
1.2) List of orbital launch records in a year broken (list of launch vehicles involved): (8/8) - (F9-98, FH-2, SS-3) as of 21 October 2024

» Most launches by a single launch provider in a year: SpaceX (Falcon 9 Block 5, Falcon Heavy, and Starship). (1/1) - Total 103 (98-F9, 2-FH, and 3-SS) as of 21 October 2024

» Most Successful launches by a single launch provider in a year: SpaceX. (1/1) - Total 102 (97-F9, 2-FH, and 3-SS) as of 21 October 2024

» Most launches by a single launch vehicle family in a year: Falcon 9 family (Falcon 9 Block 5 and Falcon Heavy). (1/1) - Total 100 (98-F9 and 2-FH) as of 21 October 2024

» Most Successful launches by a single launch vehicle family in a year: Falcon 9 family. (1/1) - Total 103 (97-F9 and 2-FH) as of 21 October 2024

» Most launches by a single launch vehicle in a year: Falcon 9 Block 5. (1/1) - 98 Falcon 9 launches as of 21 October 2024

» Most Successful launches by a single launch vehicle in a year: Falcon 9 Block 5. (1/1) - 97 Successful Falcon 9 launches as of 21 October 2024

   Note: At least one Starship launch will be considered less than successful. There also might be a less than successful launch involving a Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy. (2/2) Starlink flight 9-3 failure and SS ITF-3 partial failure.

1.3) Record number of orbital launches from one pad: SLC-40 with 80+ Falcon 9 launches.

1.4) Payload mass placed into orbit in a year: (3/3)
» Most satellite payload mass deployed from launch vehicle owned and operated by a single company: SpaceX.
» Most satellite payload mass deployed from launch vehicle belonging to a single family: Falcon 9 family.
» Most satellite payload mass deployed from a single launch vehicle: Falcon 9.
   Note: Starship in any of it's variants would not qualify as 'deployed mass'. Fuel transferred between two Starships (any variant) would qualify as 'deployed mass'.

2) SpaceX company records will be set in the following categories.
2.1) Launch pad refurbishment (time spent between two launches from a single launch pad. This will not beat the current world record between two crewed launches on the same pad.) (1/1) for SLC40.
2.2) Downtime between 3, 4, and 5 launches from the same launch pad. ?
2.2) Fastest booster refurbishment - might not result in the least time between two launches for that booster.
2.3) Time between 2, 3, 4, and 5 launches using multiple launch pads. (4/4) with 1:05:00 between two launches on different launch pads, less than 16:16:00 for three launches on three different launch pads, 43:56:00 for four launches on four pads, 131:11:00 for five launches on four pads.

3) Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy events. (4.5/6) as of 21 October 2024
3.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach the 20 launch milestone in 2024. As of 25 December 2023 there are three active boosters with 17 flights each. (1/1) with 5 boosters (2 active) launching at least 20 times as of 21 October 2024.

3.2) A Falcon 9 booster will be launched 10 times in 2024. (0/1) Booster B1076 launched 10 times between 9 September 2023 and 15 August 2024.

3.3) Studies will begin studying the viability of launching a Falcon 9 booster 25 times. (.5/1) SpaceX has been considering certifying boosters for up to 40 flights.

3.4) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during either a failed landing attempt or between a successful landing and the booster being successfully transported to it's refurbishment site. (1/1) losing Booster B1062.23 carrying Starlink 8-6 on landing.

3.5) SpaceX will expend more Falcon 9 boosters or Falcon Heavy side boosters than are lost due to mishaps. (1/1) as of 21 October 2024.

3.6) SpaceX will not attempt to recover any Falcon Heavy center cores. (1/1) as of 21 October 2024.


4) Starship
4.1) Starship will complete a test mission in the first half of 2024. (1/1) as of 21 October 2024.


4.2) Besides the test mission, Starship will launch up to four more orbital missions from Boca Chica.

4.3) Depending on the success of those missions, up to two possible Starship orbital launches from LC39A in the forth quarter of 2024. (0/1) Launch mount on LC39A has been removed

4.4) At least one attempt to catch the Super Heavy Booster will be made during a Boca Chica launch attempt. (1/1) ITF-5 was caught successfully as of 21 October 2024.


4.5) SpaceX will attempt to recover the Starship Stage at least once.

4.6) The only operational Starship missions in 2024 would involve the deployment of the full size Starlink Gen2 satellites.

4.7) Attempt to transfer fuel between two Starships will be postponed to 2025.

4. At least one attempt to launch Starship V2.0 will be made.

5) Starlink (0/2)
5.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be considered complete by the FCC before the end of Q2 2024.

5.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship will begin.

6) SpaceX will take possession of SLC-6 and start refurbishment of that site to allow launching  F9 and possibly FH. This refurbishment will last until h2 of 2025.

Rocket Lab Predictions:

1) Rocket Lab will set a new company record for Electron orbital launches in 2024. (1/1) - 11 as of 20 October 2024

2) One of Rocket Lab's three launch sites will be used for a record 8th time in a year. (1/1) - Mahia 1B - 9 as of 20 October 2024

3) Neuton's first flight will be officially delayed until 2025. (1/1) - 11 as of 20 October 2024

Planned maiden orbital launches:

1) At least one launch vehicle announced as being in development prior to 31 December 2019 with a first launch scheduled to occur prior to 31 December 2023 according to the same announcement will make it's first orbital launch attempt in 2024. (1/1) Vulcan-Centaur, Ariane 6 among others.

2) At least one launch vehicle announced as being in development on or after 1 January 2020 with a first launch scheduled to occur prior to 31 December 2023 according to the same announcement will make it's first orbital launch attempt in 2024. ((0/1) as of 21 October 2024

3) Not all launch vehicles making their first orbital launch attempt in 2024 will successfully reach the intended orbit.
3.1) At least one company responsible for an orbital launch vehicle that failed to reach it's intended orbit would claim that, although the mission was considered either a partial or complete failure by some members of the non-space focused press, internally that company considered it to be at least a partial success by having met what they considered the most challenging goals for that first mission

4) At least one orbital launch vehicle making it debut in 2024 that reached orbit on it's first launch will have a less than successful second launch. (.5/1) - Vulcan-Centaur flight 2 had issues with one of it's GEM63XL boosters although the rest of the ship was able to overcome that issue.

5) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2023, was still publicly expected to launch in 2024 based on information provided by the manufacturer, will be either cancelled or officially be postponed to 2025 or later.

6) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new launch vehicle didn't perform according to their expectations.

"Startup" orbital launch vehicle companies:
The term "Startup" for this post would include those companies with less than ten orbital launches.

1) At least one company which had announced plans to build and launch an orbital launch vehicle will close it's doors in 2024 before it's first launch.

2) At least one "startup" orbital launch vehicle company that closed it's doors between 2018 and the end of 2024 will become the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.

General:

1) At least one but not all launch providers who announce a goal of launching their launch vehicles a certain number of orbital missions in 2024 will miss their initial goal. (1/1) - SpaceX

2) At least one but not all launch providers that increase their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal. (1/1) - SpaceX
2.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve the lower of their original goal and their revised goal. (1/1) - SpaceX

3) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2023 has more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch. This might not involve a loss of payload on that mission. (1/1) - Falcon 9 launch of Starlink 9-3 failed ending a string of 325 consecutive successful launches.

4) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2024 because of lawsuits involving them directly or indirectly, or computer animations of proposed projects than they will for their own orbital launches.

5) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2024 that doesn't specifically mention SpaceX, one of it's launch vehicles, or one of it's facilities in the original post will have someone propose a solution for for a problem mentioned topic based on SpaceX and it's launch vehicles. (1/1) - Gimmie

6)  More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2024 will be completely off topic within a month of the original post. (1/1) - Gimmie

7) There will be a 'Predictions for 2025' topic started before the end of 2024.

Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.

9) Some correct predictions made in this topic that occur in 2024 will see a majority of those contributing to this topic expressing their desire that particular prediction hadn't come true. (1/1)

[scienceguy]

Time to see how I did

Artemis II does not launch

Correct. 1 point.

Starship reaches orbit at least twice

Correct. 1 point.

Rocket Lab reaches orbit at least 4 times

Correct. 1 point.

Virgin Galactic makes sub-orbit twice with paying passengers

Nope. 0 points.

More methane found on Mars

Nope. Not this year. 0 points.

More water found at some body in the solar system

Not this year. 0 points.

Nitrogen detected in an exoplanet atmosphere

Nope. 0 points.

More evidence for Proxima Centauri c

Nope. 0 points.

Voyager 2 stops communicating

It stopped sending pictures, but as far as I know it is still able to communicate. 0 points.

Artificial intelligence will be more prominent, even in spaceflight

This happened. 1 point.

Welp, I got 4/10 this year. Not a pass, but not bad.

[AmigaClone]

A couple of corrections:

Time to see how I did

Artemis II does not launch

Correct. 1 point.

Starship reaches orbit at least twice

Correct. 1 point.

Rocket Lab reaches orbit at least 4 times

Correct. 1 point.

Virgin Galactic makes sub-orbit twice with paying passengers

Nope. 0 points.

Virgin Galactic made exactly two sub-orbital flights with paying passengers in 2024.

More methane found on Mars

Nope. Not this year. 0 points.

More water found at some body in the solar system

Not this year. 0 points.

Chinese Scientists found water in the lunar sample taken from the far side of the moon.

Nitrogen detected in an exoplanet atmosphere

Nope. 0 points.

There is at least one exoplanet where scientists announced in 2024 that it potentially has Nitrogen in it's atmosphere. (.5)

More evidence for Proxima Centauri c

Nope. 0 points.

Voyager 2 stops communicating

It stopped sending pictures, but as far as I know it is still able to communicate. 0 points.

Artificial intelligence will be more prominent, even in spaceflight

This happened. 1 point.

Welp, I got 4/10 this year. Not a pass, but not bad.

You actually got 6.5/10 so far this year by my calculations, with more potentially possible.