Author Topic: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 176766 times)

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Online yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #1 on: 10/20/2022 09:47 pm »
Here is some updates by Wayne Hale:

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1583194973737865217

Quote from: Marcia Smith
At ASEB, Wayne Hale shows this chart (apologies that I can't get a better screengrab). Don't think I've seen this description of ANNUAL lunar missions that are 2 crew for 6-14 days through 2031 and then 4 crew for 30 days.

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1583195981570793472

Quote from: Marcia Smith
Hale: ppl ask me what NASA's exit strategy is for the Moon, when to leave and head for Mars. NASA, the United States, will never leave the Moon, but will decide when know enough to go to Mars. Developing that criteria.

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1583197790230179840

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1583200820287242246

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1583204877857005568
« Last Edit: 10/20/2022 09:59 pm by yg1968 »

Online yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #2 on: 10/20/2022 11:57 pm »
Wayne Hale's presentation on Artemis is at 3h32m of this video:
https://vimeo.com/event/2474343

There is also a presentation by Jim Reuter of STMD at 11m of the same video.
« Last Edit: 10/21/2022 01:29 am by yg1968 »

Offline Hog

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #3 on: 10/21/2022 12:31 am »
Mr Hale.  A God in the Space Shuttle Program enthusiast world. 

Welcome to KSC Wayne, congrats on the new job(launch integration manager-SSP).  Oh no, Columbia won't be landing this morning. Almost 20 tears ago now.

He has learned some HARD lessons.  That type of personal/professional experience is a certain kinda special.   I'm hoping for a blog post entry from Mr Hale.
« Last Edit: 10/23/2022 08:44 pm by Hog »
Paul

Online yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #4 on: 10/21/2022 03:30 am »
Wayne Hale's presentation on Artemis is at 3h32m of this video:
https://vimeo.com/event/2474343

There is also a presentation by Jim Reuter of STMD at 11m of the same video.

At 53 minutes of the video, Jim Reuter talked about New Shepard missions that will simulate lunar gravity conditions for 2 minutes by spinning the spacecraft with the RCS thrusters (see the attached slide).
« Last Edit: 10/21/2022 12:34 pm by yg1968 »

Online yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #5 on: 10/21/2022 05:00 pm »
NASA Orders Three More Orion Spacecraft From Lockheed Martin:
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2022-10-20-NASA-Orders-Three-More-Orion-Spacecraft-from-Lockheed-Martin

Quote from: LM News Release
2022: NASA orders three additional Orion spacecraft missions for Artemis VI-VIII for $1.99 billion.

https://twitter.com/garynapier/status/1583437638824230912
« Last Edit: 10/21/2022 05:01 pm by yg1968 »

Online yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #6 on: 10/21/2022 05:23 pm »
Strangely enough, NASA is looking at buying SLS until Artemis IX on a sole-source basis (see the link below) where as NASA just purchased Orions until Artemis VIII:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48676.msg2419057#msg2419057
« Last Edit: 10/21/2022 05:29 pm by yg1968 »

Online VSECOTSPE

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #7 on: 10/21/2022 05:35 pm »
NASA Orders Three More Orion Spacecraft From Lockheed Martin:
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2022-10-20-NASA-Orders-Three-More-Orion-Spacecraft-from-Lockheed-Martin

From that press release:

Quote
Under OPOC, Lockheed Martin and NASA have reduced the costs on Orion by 50% per vehicle on Artemis III through Artemis V, compared to vehicles built during the design and development phase. The vehicles built for Artemis VI, VII and VIII will see an additional 30% cost reduction.

These claims don’t match the Orion budget.  Artemis IV launches in 2027 under the baseline and content manifests.  According to this LockMart press release, Orion’s budget should come down by about half by then, or at least around $700 million from its peak of over $1.4 billion a couple years earlier.  But NASA’s FY 2023 budget request shows Orion still consuming $1.1 billion in FY 2027.

It’s nice that the Orion Program may finally have its arms around costs and that they may be coming down modestly.  And I’m sure a LockMart accountant could show how the Orion for Artemis IV is 50% of the Orion for Artemis I by excluding a lot of costs.  But in terms of what NASA and the US taxpayer actually have to cough up for Orions, OPOC and the Orion Program are not coming in anywhere near their cost goals and claims.

Online yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #8 on: 10/21/2022 05:48 pm »
NASA Orders Three More Orion Spacecraft From Lockheed Martin:
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2022-10-20-NASA-Orders-Three-More-Orion-Spacecraft-from-Lockheed-Martin

From that press release:

Quote
Under OPOC, Lockheed Martin and NASA have reduced the costs on Orion by 50% per vehicle on Artemis III through Artemis V, compared to vehicles built during the design and development phase. The vehicles built for Artemis VI, VII and VIII will see an additional 30% cost reduction.

These claims don’t match the Orion budget.  Artemis IV launches in 2027 under the baseline and content manifests.  According to this LockMart press release, Orion’s budget should come down by about half by then, or at least around $700 million from its peak of over $1.4 billion a couple years earlier.  But NASA’s FY 2023 budget request shows Orion still consuming $1.1 billion in FY 2027.

It’s nice that the Orion Program may finally have its arms around costs and that they may be coming down modestly.  And I’m sure a LockMart accountant could show how the Orion for Artemis IV is 50% of the Orion for Artemis I by excluding a lot of costs.  But in terms of what NASA and the US taxpayer actually have to cough up for Orions, OPOC and the Orion Program are not coming in anywhere near their cost goals and claims.

Yes, I am little confused by that. The last 6 missions are where more savings are supposed to be accomplished as they are supposed to be firm fixed price (at a price yet to be determined). 

In terms of cost savings from Orion III-V to Orion VI-VIII, they are about 30%:

Quote from: 2019 NASA Press Release
With this award, NASA is ordering three Orion spacecraft for Artemis missions III through V for $2.7 billion. The agency plans to order three additional Orion capsules in fiscal year 2022 for Artemis missions VI through VIII, at a total of $1.9 billion.

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-commits-to-long-term-artemis-missions-with-orion-production-contract

See also this post:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=56067.msg2356041#msg2356041
« Last Edit: 10/21/2022 06:24 pm by yg1968 »

Offline deadman1204

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #9 on: 10/21/2022 08:32 pm »
NASA Orders Three More Orion Spacecraft From Lockheed Martin:
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2022-10-20-NASA-Orders-Three-More-Orion-Spacecraft-from-Lockheed-Martin

From that press release:

Quote
Under OPOC, Lockheed Martin and NASA have reduced the costs on Orion by 50% per vehicle on Artemis III through Artemis V, compared to vehicles built during the design and development phase. The vehicles built for Artemis VI, VII and VIII will see an additional 30% cost reduction.

These claims don’t match the Orion budget.  Artemis IV launches in 2027 under the baseline and content manifests.  According to this LockMart press release, Orion’s budget should come down by about half by then, or at least around $700 million from its peak of over $1.4 billion a couple years earlier.  But NASA’s FY 2023 budget request shows Orion still consuming $1.1 billion in FY 2027.

It’s nice that the Orion Program may finally have its arms around costs and that they may be coming down modestly.  And I’m sure a LockMart accountant could show how the Orion for Artemis IV is 50% of the Orion for Artemis I by excluding a lot of costs.  But in terms of what NASA and the US taxpayer actually have to cough up for Orions, OPOC and the Orion Program are not coming in anywhere near their cost goals and claims.
Surprise! I'm sure the NASA people don't even believe this when they say it either.

Online yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #10 on: 10/21/2022 08:45 pm »
The press release is from LM, not NASA.

Online yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #11 on: 10/21/2022 08:59 pm »
https://twitter.com/JimFree/status/1583562028332957696

NASA Explorers Season 5, Episode 4: The South Pole

« Last Edit: 10/21/2022 09:02 pm by yg1968 »

Offline whitelancer64

NASA Orders Three More Orion Spacecraft From Lockheed Martin:
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2022-10-20-NASA-Orders-Three-More-Orion-Spacecraft-from-Lockheed-Martin

From that press release:

Quote
Under OPOC, Lockheed Martin and NASA have reduced the costs on Orion by 50% per vehicle on Artemis III through Artemis V, compared to vehicles built during the design and development phase. The vehicles built for Artemis VI, VII and VIII will see an additional 30% cost reduction.

These claims don’t match the Orion budget.  Artemis IV launches in 2027 under the baseline and content manifests.  According to this LockMart press release, Orion’s budget should come down by about half by then, or at least around $700 million from its peak of over $1.4 billion a couple years earlier.  But NASA’s FY 2023 budget request shows Orion still consuming $1.1 billion in FY 2027.

It’s nice that the Orion Program may finally have its arms around costs and that they may be coming down modestly.  And I’m sure a LockMart accountant could show how the Orion for Artemis IV is 50% of the Orion for Artemis I by excluding a lot of costs.  But in terms of what NASA and the US taxpayer actually have to cough up for Orions, OPOC and the Orion Program are not coming in anywhere near their cost goals and claims.

Yeah, "cost per vehicle" definitely isn't including other Orion program costs.

They are planning on reusing the capsule from Artemis 3 on Artemis 6, 4 on 7, and 5 on 8, that's playing a huge part of that 50% cost reduction.
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Offline TheRadicalModerate

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #13 on: 10/21/2022 09:54 pm »
They are planning on reusing the capsule from Artemis 3 on Artemis 6, 4 on 7, and 5 on 8, that's playing a huge part of that 50% cost reduction.

So, given that, then the order that NASA just finalized is really to refurbish the Artemis 3-5 Orions for Artemis 6-8, not to build new vehicles?

I always worry that OPOC activity is a harbinger of SLS (soon to be EPOC) activity.  There was just recently a SpaceNews piece that indicated that NASA filed  its intention to sole-source the EPOC contract to a joint venture between Boeing and Northrop-Grumman (the official name for the venture is "Deep Space Transport", but using the contraction "BoNor" for this seems soooooo much better), but the press release says that they don't plan to pull the pin on EPOC orders for the Arty 5-9 missions just yet.

My hope is that the OPOC order simply allows LockMart to get the refurbishment ball rolling, and doesn't imply that the SLS orders for Arty 5-9 are coming soon.  Once that happens, it'll make it hard to roll over to some other alternative for later Artemis missions.

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #14 on: 10/21/2022 10:57 pm »
They are planning on reusing the capsule from Artemis 3 on Artemis 6, 4 on 7, and 5 on 8, that's playing a huge part of that 50% cost reduction.

So, given that, then the order that NASA just finalized is really to refurbish the Artemis 3-5 Orions for Artemis 6-8, not to build new vehicles?

I always worry that OPOC activity is a harbinger of SLS (soon to be EPOC) activity.  There was just recently a SpaceNews piece that indicated that NASA filed  its intention to sole-source the EPOC contract to a joint venture between Boeing and Northrop-Grumman (the official name for the venture is "Deep Space Transport", but using the contraction "BoNor" for this seems soooooo much better), but the press release says that they don't plan to pull the pin on EPOC orders for the Arty 5-9 missions just yet.

My hope is that the OPOC order simply allows LockMart to get the refurbishment ball rolling, and doesn't imply that the SLS orders for Arty 5-9 are coming soon.  Once that happens, it'll make it hard to roll over to some other alternative for later Artemis missions.
It will give LM the ability to buy long lead parts for those !V to VIII. Regardless of weather they are needed for a NEW or refurbished vehicle it will still need some long lead parts.

Online yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #15 on: 10/21/2022 11:19 pm »
ESA finalizes package for ministerial:
https://spacenews.com/esa-finalizes-package-for-ministerial/

Quote from: Space News
David Parker, director of human and robotic exploration at ESA, confirmed that the agency will seek funding for the European Large Logistics Lander, or EL3, a cargo lander that could be used to support the NASA-led Artemis campaign of human lunar missions. “We are asking at the ministerial for subscriptions to support the first step of development” of EL3, also known as Argonaut, he said. The agency is seeking 380 million euros for lunar robotic activities in general, of which the majority would go to EL3, which he said would put the program on track for a first mission in 2030.
« Last Edit: 10/21/2022 11:19 pm by yg1968 »

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #16 on: 10/22/2022 02:02 am »
They are planning on reusing the capsule from Artemis 3 on Artemis 6, 4 on 7, and 5 on 8, that's playing a huge part of that 50% cost reduction.

So, given that, then the order that NASA just finalized is really to refurbish the Artemis 3-5 Orions for Artemis 6-8, not to build new vehicles?

I always worry that OPOC activity is a harbinger of SLS (soon to be EPOC) activity.  There was just recently a SpaceNews piece that indicated that NASA filed  its intention to sole-source the EPOC contract to a joint venture between Boeing and Northrop-Grumman (the official name for the venture is "Deep Space Transport", but using the contraction "BoNor" for this seems soooooo much better), but the press release says that they don't plan to pull the pin on EPOC orders for the Arty 5-9 missions just yet.

My hope is that the OPOC order simply allows LockMart to get the refurbishment ball rolling, and doesn't imply that the SLS orders for Arty 5-9 are coming soon.  Once that happens, it'll make it hard to roll over to some other alternative for later Artemis missions.
Think a contraction of "BoNG" is more appropriate, like in what they are smoking.  ;)

Offline libra

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #17 on: 10/22/2022 06:31 am »
ROTFL

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #18 on: 10/22/2022 12:51 pm »
https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/hale-urges-more-transparency-in-artemis-commercial-contracts/

Quote
HALE URGES MORE TRANSPARENCY IN ARTEMIS COMMERCIAL CONTRACTS
By Marcia Smith | Posted: October 21, 2022 11:47 pm ET | Last Updated: October 22, 2022 12:09 am ET

The chairman of a NASA advisory committee, Wayne Hale, is urging NASA to avoid contracts that prevent release of information to the public because companies claim it as proprietary. That applies particularly to Public-Private Partnerships like the Human Landing Systems being developed for the Artemis program to return astronauts to the  Moon.

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #19 on: 10/22/2022 03:53 pm »
https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/hale-urges-more-transparency-in-artemis-commercial-contracts/

Quote
HALE URGES MORE TRANSPARENCY IN ARTEMIS COMMERCIAL CONTRACTS
By Marcia Smith | Posted: October 21, 2022 11:47 pm ET | Last Updated: October 22, 2022 12:09 am ET

The chairman of a NASA advisory committee, Wayne Hale, is urging NASA to avoid contracts that prevent release of information to the public because companies claim it as proprietary. That applies particularly to Public-Private Partnerships like the Human Landing Systems being developed for the Artemis program to return astronauts to the  Moon.
Mr Hale is very unlikely to get his way on the "Transparancy" item because having unrestricted access to IP and ability to reassign that IP to other contractors to use is a very large cost that NASA is trying to avoid. If NASA has to pay for the IP for unrestricted public access. It would likely baloon the HLS development contract costs by a factor of 3 to 4. So instead of $2.6B a value of $8.5B to $11B for the SpaceX version and even worse for the BO of a value of from $12B to $16B.

NASA for SLS and Orion purchased the IP  and has paid dearly for it. After the experience in the program cost reductions of the Commercial Cargo and Commercial Crew programs. And even with all the technical challenges bumps and schedule slips is still making out like a bandit compared to how much NASA would have had to pay for a traditional procurement for those programs. Starship in specific is mostly already designed and in production and testing having been paid for privately. They are not finished with all the development still to go for the normal common operations of the Starship.

I think Mr Hale is to use to a design being in stone for years before a first flight. Good luck with that with SpaceX and Starship. Starship is at the point now that F9 was at just before it's first demo flight. That version last just 6 flights before it had a new significantly upgraded engine designed and built very different from the earlier. A avery significant structure length stretch. Both together enabling to not only met the previous payload performance goals but exceed them significantly. In the next six years after that the designs had several other performance upgrades including the reuses of the booster stage. If current B7/S24 and B8/S25 Starships are considered the V1.0, by 2024 they will have already been obsoleted/iterated at least once if not 2 or even 3 times.

The current in use IP for the commercial LV and spacecraft is a fast moving target. Definitely during development but also even during first ~6 years of operations.

NASA has decided to just purchase a ride not a design. And therefor traditional "Transparency" is not a feature of that purchase unless the the commercial provider is nice and gives it to them for free but with many NDA restrictions attached.

Tags: artemis 2 Crew 
 

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