Author Topic: ESA - Voyage 2050  (Read 35658 times)

Offline deadman1204

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Re: ESA - Voyage 2050
« Reply #60 on: 04/02/2024 06:10 pm »
I'm not sure I see this happening. The US cannot produce enough PU for its own basic needs. I've a hard time seeing us cancel our own missions to sell PU to ESA
BTW, Lori Glaze has stated repeatedly that the production facilities are not limiting the rate of RTGs, which can be ramped up or down with mission demand.

The lack of funding for missions that would use RTGs is the limiting factor on RTG production.
Ehh... isn't that the long way of saying we don't/won't have all the PU we need? Sure it can be "ramped up", not only will that ALWAYS go slower and cost WAY MORE than expected, but it requires the money to begin with.
Instead, we simply won't start missions that require a significant increase, because everyone knows the budget won't exist for it.

Offline vjkane

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Re: ESA - Voyage 2050
« Reply #61 on: 04/02/2024 08:05 pm »
I'm not sure I see this happening. The US cannot produce enough PU for its own basic needs. I've a hard time seeing us cancel our own missions to sell PU to ESA
BTW, Lori Glaze has stated repeatedly that the production facilities are not limiting the rate of RTGs, which can be ramped up or down with mission demand.

The lack of funding for missions that would use RTGs is the limiting factor on RTG production.
No, it's not the long way.  If more RTGs were produced, NASA doesn't have the money to design, build, launch, and manage the missions that would use them.

RTG production rate is limiting the missions NASA flies. It's sort of like the price of gas - you care, but it is secondary to whether or not you can afford to buy a car in the first place.  NASA can't afford the car.
Ehh... isn't that the long way of saying we don't/won't have all the PU we need? Sure it can be "ramped up", not only will that ALWAYS go slower and cost WAY MORE than expected, but it requires the money to begin with.
Instead, we simply won't start missions that require a significant increase, because everyone knows the budget won't exist for it.

Offline vjkane

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Re: ESA - Voyage 2050
« Reply #62 on: 04/02/2024 10:20 pm »
Ehh... isn't that the long way of saying we don't/won't have all the PU we need? Sure it can be "ramped up", not only will that ALWAYS go slower and cost WAY MORE than expected, but it requires the money to begin with.
Instead, we simply won't start missions that require a significant increase, because everyone knows the budget won't exist for it.
Compared to the rest of the cost of a mission, RTGs and the RTG program are cheap.

NASA can't afford new planetary missions to any destination, whether solar or radioisotope powered.  If RTGs were free, NASA still doesn't have the funding to start the new underlying missions.

It's like with launch vehicles. If launch were free, NASA still doesn't have the money to start new planetary missions.

Offline vjkane

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Re: ESA - Voyage 2050
« Reply #63 on: 04/03/2024 02:54 pm »
There's been a discussion of whether RTG production rate is hindering mission selection. I had time this morning to go back to the OPAG presentations from last fall. I've attached a key slide from Lori Glaze's presentation.

Another point is that for a mission to launch in the early 2040's, you'd want to use RTGs produced in the mid-2030s. There is the nuclear decay, but it turns out that the decay of other components in the package is the driving force on lifetime power. The production rate today likely has little relevance to the potential use of ESA's 2040's mission.

https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/opagnov2023/presentations/Tuesday/0915_Glaze.pdf

Offline skizzo

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Re: ESA - Voyage 2050
« Reply #64 on: 04/07/2024 04:32 pm »
if ESA does indeed go with an Enceladus orbilander as their flagship mission, what do you think NASA will choose are their top priority mission after Uranus, since for them it was also Enceladus? Not sure if there was another mission in the ranking just below that one?

Offline vjkane

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Re: ESA - Voyage 2050
« Reply #65 on: 04/07/2024 09:22 pm »
if ESA does indeed go with an Enceladus orbilander as their flagship mission, what do you think NASA will choose are their top priority mission after Uranus, since for them it was also Enceladus? Not sure if there was another mission in the ranking just below that one?
I think that question will be answered by the next Decadal Survey, which should start about 2030 and be published about 2032.  There seems to be more priorities than budget remaining from the last one for that question to be formally answered before then.

For Enceladus and NASA, NASA could select a New Frontiers Enceladus multi-flyby mission that would arrive approximately a decade before the European mission.  While it might seem like competition, the European mission would benefit from learning more about Enceladus.

I also expect that ESA and NASA will talk about collaboration on the ESA Voyage 2050 mission. They have done so on possible Uranus missions and are collaborating on many. The ideas in the ESA document for an Enceladus mission are ambitious. They may be far more doable with collaboration.

Offline skizzo

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Re: ESA - Voyage 2050
« Reply #66 on: 04/08/2024 11:06 am »
if ESA does indeed go with an Enceladus orbilander as their flagship mission, what do you think NASA will choose are their top priority mission after Uranus, since for them it was also Enceladus? Not sure if there was another mission in the ranking just below that one?
I think that question will be answered by the next Decadal Survey, which should start about 2030 and be published about 2032.  There seems to be more priorities than budget remaining from the last one for that question to be formally answered before then.

For Enceladus and NASA, NASA could select a New Frontiers Enceladus multi-flyby mission that would arrive approximately a decade before the European mission.  While it might seem like competition, the European mission would benefit from learning more about Enceladus.

I also expect that ESA and NASA will talk about collaboration on the ESA Voyage 2050 mission. They have done so on possible Uranus missions and are collaborating on many. The ideas in the ESA document for an Enceladus mission are ambitious. They may be far more doable with collaboration.

Oh I agree they would collaborate on both missions, but if Enceladus is ESA led, I think NASA will want their own flagship mission too, assuming this comes after Uranus.

Offline TheKutKu

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Re: ESA - Voyage 2050
« Reply #67 on: 02/08/2025 12:20 am »
https://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/call-for-missions-2025/home
https://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/exploratory-call-mini-fast-mission-proposals/home
https://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/call-for-missions-2025/briefing-meeting

A couple weeks ago ESA announced that the call for missions for the Voyage 2050 Medium 8, Fast 3 and the first "mini-Fast" (<50m€ budget) missions will be opened on March 2025.

Some pdfs in the link, selection is expected for late 2026 (F3) and early 2030 (M8) for adoption in 2030/2032 and launch in 2034/2041 respectively.

Personally I hope the Ceres Occator crater lander that wasn't downselected for M7 gets selected for M8 :D

« Last Edit: 02/08/2025 12:31 am by TheKutKu »

Offline flatpf

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Re: ESA - Voyage 2050
« Reply #68 on: 12/11/2025 11:16 am »
As we are in Voyage 2050 now, my list of mission candidates should have belonged here.

Anyway, I found a post on a German forum with the alleged M8 candidates that were invited to deliver a Step-2 proposal. 10 out of 27 proposals were chosen.

CALICO+ – A mission to land in Occator Crater on Ceres to sample the surface, modified version of the M7 proposal.
DarkSun - A mission to study the Sun's magnetic field.
EXPO – The Enhanced X-ray Polarimetry Observatory, an evolution of NGXP.
FOSSIL – A high resolution spectrometer to measure spectral distortions in the CMB.
HAYDN – An astroseismology mission.
LETO – Line Emission Terahertz Observatory, a warm 3.5m FIR telescope for analyzing the interstellar medium in luminous galaxies.
LTI – Low Thermosphere-Ionosphere Mission, a mission to explore Earth's lower Thermosphere-Ionosphere in situ.
PHEMTO – A hard X-ray observatory in the 1-600 keV range.
PRIAMOS [2]– A mission proposal to return a sample from a D-type NEO to Earth.
SPARK – The mission aims to investigate solar particle acceleration and the magnetic energy release that powers it.

Deadline for Step-2 proposals is 19 March 2026, up to 5 candidates will be chosen in November 2026 for mission study.

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