Predictions 2021

[scienceguy]

Well, I'm starting this thread early, but it has been a rough year with covid, and I figure myself and others need a pick-me-up.

Link to last year's thread:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.0

Predictions for spaceflight 2021

Water vapour detected in the atmosphere of an Earth-size exoplanet within 40 light years

More evidence of a second planet at Proxima Centauri

Evidence of an Earth-size planet at Alpha Centauri B

SpaceX continues its crew transportation to the ISS nominally

SpaceX Starship makes it to orbit safely

SpaceX will launch twice in the same day at least once

JWST launches without incident and snaps a 1-4 pixel picture of an exoplanet

NASA Curiosity rover keeps working

NASA’s InSight Lander stops communicating briefly; issue is quickly resolved

NASA’s TESS finds more Earth-size planets in the habitable zone

Covid-19 will continue to delay launches worldwide

ISRO will continue work on their reusable shuttle

China will have at least 10 successful launches

Betelgeuse will go supernova this year as seen from Earth

[Eric Hedman]

It's still a little early for me.  I still need another 6 or 7 weeks to see how some of my predictions for this year are going to turn out.  But I agree we need to look forward to a hopefully better year next year.  And much of that hope has nothing to do with spaceflight.

[Magelan]

Well, I'm starting this thread early, but it has been a rough year with covid, and I figure myself and others need a pick-me-up.

Link to last year's thread:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.0

Predictions for spaceflight 2021

Water vapour detected in the atmosphere of an Earth-size exoplanet within 40 light years

More evidence of a second planet at Proxima Centauri

Evidence of an Earth-size planet at Alpha Centauri B

SpaceX continues its crew transportation to the ISS nominally

SpaceX Starship makes it to orbit safely

SpaceX will launch twice in the same day at least once

JWST launches without incident and snaps a 1-4 pixel picture of an exoplanet

NASA Curiosity rover keeps working

NASA’s InSight Lander stops communicating briefly; issue is quickly resolved

NASA’s TESS finds more Earth-size planets in the habitable zone

Covid-19 will continue to delay launches worldwide

ISRO will continue work on their reusable shuttle

China will have at least 10 successful launches

Betelgeuse will go supernova this year as seen from Earth

I have read on the UK space news some interesting facts. Some of them are:

ULA now planning the first launch of Vulcan in 2021
Vulcan was presented on April 13, 2015. United Launch Alliance is planning to launch it in six years after presenting.

Trump seeks $15.4 billion for U.S. Space Force in 2021 budget
We can wait for something really perspective from this.

[JohnFornaro]

I predict that JWST will not launch under the Harris administration.

[woods170]

I predict that a majority of the predictions in this thread will be proven to be wrong.

[Andy_Small]

For sure there will be greater than 1 rocket launch in 2021.

[Orbiter]

Not a prediction per say, but I anticipate 2021 to be one of the most exciting years for space exploration.

Artemis I, continued crewed flights between Dragon and CST-100, Starship orbital flight + Superheavy test campaigns, Falcon Heavy launches, Perseverance landing on Mars, New Glenn, Nauka, and, perhaps the crown jewel of it all, the launch of JWST bringing forward the greatest revolution in astronomy and astrophysics yet.

[Eric Hedman]

One thing I would like to see in 2021 that the public probably wouldn't know about is if behind the scenes there is work being done to figure out how to fly Orion on another launcher such as Falcon Heavy, New Glenn or Vulcan even if refueling is required.  If they find that they could refurbish an Orion for significantly less than building a new capsule, maybe there could be significantly more flights out to the Gateway and eventually SLS could be given the proper burial it deserves.

[Finn Mac Doreahn]

SpaceX

29 launches,most successful. One partial failure late in the year. Crew 2 launches in late March,Crew 3 in mid-July,Axiom-1 in October,Crew 4 at end of year.

Starship slogs along,reaches space in April and orbit in August. Late in the year the first crews are named. Elon is on one of them.

Starlink is completed in May,just in time for the 2nd anniversary of 0.9.

5 Falcon Heavy launches, the two USSF launches, ViaSat, another commercial satellite, and something unannounced as yet.

Boeing,Rocket Lab,ULA,etc

OFT-2 and CFT go well. First operational crew mission in autumn.

5-7 Atlas V launches in 2021,excepting CST-100. ViaSat goes up in July.

All 3 Delta IV launches are successful.

3 LauncherOne launches. One fails to place its payload in quite the right orbit. Contracts for 10 more are signed.

Firefly Alpha flies 6 times. Beta is static fired and Gamma is given a go.

12-15 Electron launches, including 3 or 4 from Wallops. LC-3 debuts in November. Lunar Scout flies in September.

Blue Origin flies 5 missions, including 3 with crew. New Glenn is static fired and nabs some sweet launch contracts. New Armstrong turns out to be an ‘SSTO+‘ spaceplane about the size of the 707.

NASA

ISS ticks along without much fanfare. Nauka makes it to ISS at end of April despite some minor technical issues. A micrometeoroid scare in June almost leads to the station being evacuated.

Perseverance lands successfully. Much science is obtained. Ingenuity flies in May,gets some nice pics.

NASA decides,regarding Juno EOM,to use Jupiter’s gravity field to slingshot Juno back into solar orbit. Scott Manley makes a cool KSP video about this. 

Green Run takes place in January,no major issues. Artemis 1 is stacked over summer,flies at beginning of October. IM-1 is manifested with Artemis 1 because Rule of Cool. Both missions are a success.

(repeated from last time) Artemis 2 crew is announced at some point. There will be an international crew member. It will be Samantha Cristoforetti.

JWST launches on Halloween,successfully reaches L2 on 10 November. Science begins.

The new astronaut group is announced for Christmas,consists of about 20 people.

ESA

After a dramatic-ish VV17 investigation,regular Vega is cancelled and all payloads shifted to Vega-C or Soyuz. Vega-C,after being renamed to Vega 2,first flies in late spring.

Soyuz and Ariane 6 get various payload contracts. By end of year Callisto is static fired.

A few Ariane 5 missions,nothing really happens there.

A new spationaut group is announced in November. About 16 people,2 or 3 of them British.

Russia

2 Angaras,4 Protons,13 Soyuz,one failure.

Work on a Falcon 9 style rocket begins. Putin starts mulling state-sponsored Electron equivalent.

An action movie is partially filmed at Baikonur.

Other Asian nations

Launches return to normal for China. Tianhe launches over the summer. A new taikonaut group is announced. Tianwen and Chang’e 5 are successful:after dropping off the sample capsule the Chang’e 5 orbiter is diverted to an NEO flyby. A Venus balloon gets approved.

8 launches from Japan.

H3 debuts without fanfare.

MMX is Go for launch in 2024. A sample return mission gets approved for 2029.

HTV-X gets approved for Gateway. Launch will be on Falcon Heavy.

Gaganyaan 1 is successful,but Gaganyaan 2 gets pushed into 2022. The first Gaganyaan crew is announced.

[freddo411]

I predict that JWST will not launch under the Harris administration.

Yikes,   That would be quite the delay.

[Toast]

I predict that a majority of the predictions in this thread will be proven to be wrong.

I predict that most predictions here will turn out to be wrong.

As is tradition.

[archfan7411]

Longtime lurker but only recently registered, figured I'd add mine. I think that:

- We see a full up Starship/Superheavy stack, and first flights will use less than 28 engines. I'm 50/50 on orbit actually being achieved but if it is I'm betting it'll be in Q4.

- JWST gets delayed again.

- Artemis I does not occur in 2021 due to SLS delays.

- OFT-2 and further Starliner flights are completed successfully thanks to heavy NASA scrutiny.

- SpaceX flies >24 missions and encounters no failures outside of Starship development and FH center core landings.

- SpaceX flies the first fully private crew on Axiom-1 in addition to regular Commercial Crew missions. The Tom Cruise movie, when released in 2022, is a flop and contains a disappointingly small amount of actual ISS footage. The mission is still fantastic PR for NASA and SpaceX.

- We don't see much regarding New Glenn, and Blue Origin encounters further difficulties with the BE4. Vulcan may still launch within 2021.

- Dynetics survives the HLS downselect.

- SpaceX unveils a crew design for Starship, most likely for Starship HLS.

- Rocket Lab attempts to recover every booster they launch, and makes progress on refurbishment.

- NROL-44 launches in early 2021.

- Starlink begins to rake in a substantial amount of revenue and will break even with launch costs and begin to be truly profitable in Q3.

[ncb1397]

My predictions for 2021...

1.) over the course of the year,  the earth will make roughly one rotation around the sun
2.) over that single rotation, the earth will spin on its axis roughly 365 times.

Feel pretty strongly about these predictions. YMMV.

[Proponent]

Congress will fail to fund Artemis at a level consistent with a 2028 moon landing, let alone 2024.  Orion and SLS will, however, be generously funded, leaving NASA in the same place its been since 2005, namely with the obligation to build congressionally preferred hardware but without the funds to put it to good use.

Artemis 1 will slip to 2022.

EDIT:  Added everything after "2028 moon landing"

[JohnFornaro]

For sure there will be greater than 1 rocket launch in 2021.

I'll raise ya one launch.  Two.

[Lars-J]

I predict that JWST will not launch under the Harris administration.

When does the Harris administration begin?    C'mon, let us elevate the discussion here.

Edit/Lar: That would be politics. Don't go there

[high road]

Impending death of all astronauts on ISS is announced due to three separate occasions. Each time, weeks or months later, the problem is resolved, without any astronaut ever having been in significant danger.

NASA discovers water on the moon and Mars several times.

Starship goes orbital late in the year. Landing is still problematic.

HLS, being underfunded, doesn't really move anywhere. NASA finds a way to keep all three companies on board. SpaceX is the only company that actually moves along meaningfully (by merit of Starship progress). Blue Origin makes a great show about how much progress they make, while simultaneously blaming lack of funding from NASA for not making progress.

No launch of H3, Ariane 6, New Glenn, or Vulcan. SLS first launch near the end of the year. No paying passengers on NS or by VG, but there are one or two test missions per vehicle. At the end of the year, only 'a few more test flights' are required to get paying passengers on NS. No ticket price or sales are announced. Only one or two test flights for VO, no fully paid for mission yet.

The number of Starlink users increases exponentially, increasing the amount of cash Starlink is burning, as users initially pay less than the dish production costs.

SpaceX' non-Starlink launches show little growth.

Anything more positive than this would be a win for me. 

[Dalhousie]

China achieves 40 launches.

Tianwen lands successfully and rover deploys

Yutu 2 continues lunar operations

Chang'e 5 successful returns samples

ISS routinely operates with seven crew

Starliner flies successfully

Nauka docks successfully

SLS has successful launch

James Webb launches successfully and after prolonged calibration, begins to return great science

SS eventually reaches 18km

[Bubbinski]

Okay, here goes.

- By the end of 2021 the big worry of the world won’t be COVID. A regional hot spot flares into a wider war, and space assets are a part of this war. One or two incidents will cause space debris which will have to be dealt with

- Mars Rover Perseverance successfully lands on Mars in February and begins its mission.

- SpaceX will launch Crew-2, Crew-3, and the AXIOM mission

- By Christmas 2021 the first Starship orbital flight will be in advanced preparations. During the year there will be times of strong advance and good testing interspersed with setbacks, but overall progress

- Artemis-1 is pushed back to the first quarter of 2022, but by Christmas the flight will be in advanced preparations. Whispers about SLS program cancellation but nothing happens in that respect

- James Webb Space Telescope launches successfully in Q4 2021.

- China finally returns taikonauts to space by the end of the year. Tianhe-1 core is launched, Chinese station ops begin

- Tianwen successfully lands on Mars

- India launches the first uncrewed Gaganyaan mission in late 2021, there is chatter they won’t be able to meet their target for launching crewed Gaganyaan in 2022

- Chandrayaan-3 successfully launches and lands on the Moon, fixing the problems with the Chandrayaan-2 lander

- UAE’s Hope mission successfully orbits Mars and starts its mission.

- Boeing Starliner suffers a few delays but OFT-2 finally launches by Q3 and CFT launches by Q4. Starliner first operational flight in 2022

- ULA Vulcan first flight delayed to 2022. By end of year engine issues finally resolved

- ULA gets two Delta 4 Heavy launches in and successfully launches Landsat-9 from Vandenberg

- Between Virgin Orbit, Astra, Firefly, Vector, etc. someone successfully starts launching on a regular basis and becomes a competitor to RocketLab. However, not all of these companies will make it through 2021 and a launch industry shakeout begins

- Virgin Galactic finally puts Sir Richard Branson into space by Christmas 2021.(the USAF definition of space at 50 miles anyway). But New Shepard is shut down without ever putting a single person above the Karman Line. VG and Axiom are the big “games in town” when it comes to space tourism.

- Blue Origin finally shows off serious progress on New Glenn. But nothing is still known about New Armstrong and the National Team’s Artemis lander bid loses to Dynetics and SpaceX

- Artemis 2024 lunar landing officially off the table, with 2026-2028 being the new target. Program continues with some cuts, rescoping

- One exoplanet discovery makes significant news. An exomoon is finally confirmed

- Gyroscope or other system failures aboard Hubble Telescope give rise to talk and then serious planning about a new servicing mission with Crew Dragon, Starliner, or Starship

- There will be some talk and a push to replace Arecibo but no action is taken on that front, nothing is formally approved. Green Bank/Kitt Peak/Goldstone future upgrades will become the focus of US radio astronomy

- Starlink will become operational for all US/Canada users by Christmas. The sunshades will be moderately successful at reducing some of the worst impacts for ground based astronomy and the night sky, but more will need to be done

- A major materials or medical science discovery will be made by ISS as the additional capability enabled by a 7 member crew starts to make itself felt. However, the station will come perilously close to evacuation during the course of the year as space debris and age make their presence felt

- On a personal level I’ll finish at least one more space model and my Level 1 rocket. And I’ll finally make it out to the Cape for a launch after KSCVC fully reopens with all attractions available and I get vaccinated from COVID

2021 is going to be quite a ride for space folk!

[theprotobe]

Okay! Here we go,  let's eat crow!

-Pandemic slows and halts by mid-2021, thanks to ring vaccination and general vaccination efforts

-SpaceX launches 3 manned missions, and prepares for the Space Adventures mission

-SpaceX breaks 30 launches a year

-SpaceX Superheavy booster encounters issues during testing, but flies a hop in Q3 2021. A 20 engine or more-booster will be ready by the end of the year.

-James Webb launches as planned in late October or early November

-Astra and Firefly reach orbit

-Starlink will be ready for operations north and south of the 35th parallel respectively by the end of the year.

-All Mars missions get there safely. The Tianwen-1 rover might experience a parachute issue or lander issue that results in the end of the mission.

-OFT-2 launches, encounters a couple of issues, but Boeing is cleared to proceed to CFT.

-Biden administration appoints Kendra Horn as NASA administrator, and delays the Moon landing to 2026.

-NASA picks ultimately DHLS and Moonship for their human landing system.

-NASA begins cooperation with SpaceX on Starlink capabilities.

-SpaceX transporter missions become competitive with smallsat launchers, forcing companies like RocketLab to adapt

-Trident and DAVINCI will be chosen for Discovery missions 15 and 16

-EnVision cooperates with VERITAS and/or its scientists, whether or not it gets chosen

-EHT releases preliminary data on Sagittarius A*, but doesn't release an image

-Blue Origin announces New Glenn will be delayed to 2022

-Discussions begin on possible satellite servicing by Crew Dragon or Starliner

-Interior mock-ups for Moonship will be ready

-Dynetics begin small VTOL tests for DHLS