Rokot future

[AegeanBlue]

Rokot is back in the news with the Sentinel 5P launch so I have a few questions about the launcher's future. According to wikipedia Eurockot bought 45 UR-100Ns from the Russian strategic forces to use in Rokot (and Strela?) launches. Further news is that in 2015 following Crimea the Russian military decided to move all its launches from this vehicle, because apparently part of the control system is made in the Ukraine. So far there have been 30 launches of Rokot (and 3 of Strela) with another one planned. Even if we count the 2 pre dissolution launches, this is not 45. Is Rokot available for future commercial or civilian launches, or is it headed for retirement after the Geo-IK-2 No. 3 (Musson 2) mission. Say that it is available afterwards, is there a plan to buy more retired UR-100s from the Russian Strategic Forces for future Rockots? As far as I know the UR-100 family will eventually be replaced by the newer RS-24, meaning that more UR-100s should become available as a basis for future Rokots.

[ZachS09]

If you look in William Graham's article about the Sentinel 5p launch, he says the following, "Early last year, Russia’s TASS news agency reported that the type would be used for two more Russian government launches, with Gonets-M communications satellites, but earlier this year TASS reported that the final launch would occur in late 2017 or early 2018 with ESA’s Sentinel 3B satellite. That launch is expected to occur in the next few months" (Graham).

[russianhalo117]

If you look in William Graham's article about the Sentinel 5p launch, he says the following, "Early last year, Russia’s TASS news agency reported that the type would be used for two more Russian government launches, with Gonets-M communications satellites, but earlier this year TASS reported that the final launch would occur in late 2017 or early 2018 with ESA’s Sentinel 3B satellite. That launch is expected to occur in the next few months" (Graham).

The plan as to which launcher will launch ESA’s Sentinel 3B satellite is officially under review with a decision soon.
Sources: European Commission and http://russianspaceweb.com/sentinel5p.html

...

All the problems with the Sentinel-5P mission reportedly prompted European space officials to consider switching the follow-on Sentinel-3B spacecraft from Rockot to the much more expensive European Vega launcher, even if this would mean its own associated delays. The European Commission, which uses the Sentinel satellites, was expected to make a decision on the launcher for Sentinel-3B this month.

[zubenelgenubi]

SFN launch schedule, update of July 19, 2017

Sentinel 3B launch on Rokot delayed from November 2017 to March 2018.
***

Re: Sentinel 3B.  What is its current location/status, while the European Commission makes its decision to launch via Rokot from Plesetsk, or Vega from Kourou?

[Mike Jones]

Sentinel 3B should be at Thales Alenia Space AIT facilities in Cannes at the moment.

[ZachS09]

Quick question: if Rokot does get retired within the next several months, what will happen to the Briz-KM upper stages that were manifested for the Sentinel 3B and government missions?

Will they be modified as Briz-M upper stages for Proton?

Also, I'm wondering if the UR-100 first and second stages will be scrapped by then.

[russianhalo117]

Quick question: if Rokot does get retired within the next several months, what will happen to the Briz-KM upper stages that were manifested for the Sentinel 3B and government missions?

Will they be modified as Briz-M upper stages for Proton?

Also, I'm wondering if the UR-100 first and second stages will be scrapped by then.

Well since several arms reductions treaties were cancelled by the US and Russia during the previous two US administrations there is not an immediate need to scrap any UR-100 version at this time.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post; apparently the [Rokot/Briz-KM – 3 Gonets-M (blok № 15) – NET December 2017] launch is proceeding:

To update - as of right now this flight is sticking to Rokot with a launch date of NET December 18, 2017 (or early 2018) noted on NK forums.

[zubenelgenubi]

The plan as to which launcher will launch ESA’s Sentinel 3B satellite is officially under review with a decision soon.
Sources: European Commission and http://russianspaceweb.com/sentinel5p.html

...

All the problems with the Sentinel-5P mission reportedly prompted European space officials to consider switching the follow-on Sentinel-3B spacecraft from Rockot to the much more expensive European Vega launcher, even if this would mean its own associated delays. The European Commission, which uses the Sentinel satellites, was expected to make a decision on the launcher for Sentinel-3B this month.

Did the European Commission make a launcher decision in October for Sentinel-3B?
***

Are there any recent developments re: Rokot's future (if any)?

[russianhalo117]

The plan as to which launcher will launch ESA’s Sentinel 3B satellite is officially under review with a decision soon.
Sources: European Commission and http://russianspaceweb.com/sentinel5p.html

...

All the problems with the Sentinel-5P mission reportedly prompted European space officials to consider switching the follow-on Sentinel-3B spacecraft from Rockot to the much more expensive European Vega launcher, even if this would mean its own associated delays. The European Commission, which uses the Sentinel satellites, was expected to make a decision on the launcher for Sentinel-3B this month.

Did the European Commission make a launcher decision in October for Sentinel-3B?
***

Are there any recent developments re: Rokot's future (if any)?

The mission was deferred to NET 2018. No public announcement of decision as that announcement may have been deferred to the new year.

[Rik ISS-fan]

Already for a long time Sentinel 3B was planned to launch in 2018.
DLR Raumfahrtkalender has the Sentinel 3B Rockot launch planned for March 2018 from Plesetsk.
(It's a EU/ESA Sentinel launch provided by EUrockot, maybe the Europa/ESA section is beter for this, and Sentinel 5P)

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

With the success of this [Sentinel-3B] launch, does Eurockot Launch Services dissolve?

The three remaining Rokot launches are all Russian government payloads.

Their web site is still going, but the manifest is empty.

http://www.eurockot.com/missions/manifest/

Eurockot also post government launches so i don't expect the site to retire until Rockot formally does.

On a side note:

I'm told that the Strela Launch vehicle is un-affected by the geo-political outcome. There is a consensus to also retire Strela but that has not officially happened yet. Strela can be deployed from the Rockot launch site if needed albeit with a performance hit.

[starbase]

Apparently Rockot 2 is in development.

Source (in German): https://de.sputniknews.com/amp/technik/20180821322039736-rockot-traegerrakete-russland/
(in Russian): http://tass.ru/kosmos/5474459/amp?__twitter_impression=true

[Skyrocket]

Apparently Rockot 2 is in development.

Source (in German): https://de.sputniknews.com/amp/technik/20180821322039736-rockot-traegerrakete-russland/
(in Russian): http://tass.ru/kosmos/5474459/amp?__twitter_impression=true

It appears to be a Rokot-KM with the Ukrainian avionics replaced by Russian.

[russianhalo117]

Apparently Rockot 2 is in development.

Source (in German): https://de.sputniknews.com/amp/technik/20180821322039736-rockot-traegerrakete-russland/
(in Russian): http://tass.ru/kosmos/5474459/amp?__twitter_impression=true

It appears to be a Rokot-KM with the Ukrainian avionics replaced by Russian.

This has been shot down by the Kremlin and Roscosmos several times now saying the conversional launcher will be retired despite announcements to the contrary from Khrunichev, however there are several Rockots in storage awaiting Ukrainian avionics or a russian replacement.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-posts:

Late 2018 – three 14F132 Rodnik satellites [block-16] – Rokot
2019 – Geo-IK-2 n.º 13L – Rokot
2019 – three Gonets-M satellites (№24, 25, 26) [block-15], Blits-M – Rokot
2019 – three 14F132 Rodnik satellites [block-17] – Rokot
2021 – Rokot-2
https://ria.ru/space/20181023/1531289433.html

I don't see the 2019 flights happening on Rockot because of the Ukrainian stalemate with Russia.

https://iz.ru/693686/dmitrii-strugovetc/v-stolitce-budet-izgotovleno-shest-raket-angara-a5
https://www.interfax.ru/russia/626327

Nevertheless, despite all these plans by Varochko and all these publications by interfax.ru - I suspect no more Rokot flights. Just like it happened with Dnepr.
The publications are real.
But the mentioned stalemate is real just as well.

[Propylox]

..So far there have been 30 launches of Rokot (and 3 of Strela) with another one planned. Even if we count the 2 pre dissolution launches, this is not 45. Is Rokot available for future commercial or civilian launches, or is it headed for retirement after the Geo-IK-2 No. 3 (Musson 2) mission. Say that it is available afterwards, is there a plan to buy more retired UR-100s from the Russian Strategic Forces for future Rockots? As far as I know the UR-100 family will eventually be replaced by the newer RS-24, meaning that more UR-100s should become available as a basis for future Rokots.

With over 300 original UR-100s, 130 destroyed by Ukraine and 45 purchased for Rokot - I'd assume up to 100 available at later dates if there's demand. Similarly, there's abundant Dnepr/R-36 with double the capacity, but their maintenance and rebuild were performed in Ukraine.

It appears to be a Rokot-KM with the Ukrainian avionics replaced by Russian.

This has been shot down by the Kremlin and Roscosmos several times now saying the conversional launcher will be retired despite announcements to the contrary from Khrunichev, however there are several Rockots in storage awaiting Ukrainian avionics or a russian replacement.

Report resurfaced a week ago, but with financials to justify the workforce and necessary Russian avionics.

SputnikNews arcticle, cut to avoid link: ht tps://spu tniknews.com/sci ence/201810181068981965-russia-rocket-rokot-launch/
-snips- "The launches of Rokot-2 may begin in 2021 if the decision to resume the project is made in 2018. ..The investment in the project was estimated at 4 billion rubles ..The positive money flow from the implementation of the project before 2025 is estimated at around 500 million rubles, while the annual income from the implementation of the project will increase from 2 billion rubles in the year when the first launches are held to 8.8 billion rubles by 2024-25 .."

[russianhalo117]

..So far there have been 30 launches of Rokot (and 3 of Strela) with another one planned. Even if we count the 2 pre dissolution launches, this is not 45. Is Rokot available for future commercial or civilian launches, or is it headed for retirement after the Geo-IK-2 No. 3 (Musson 2) mission. Say that it is available afterwards, is there a plan to buy more retired UR-100s from the Russian Strategic Forces for future Rockots? As far as I know the UR-100 family will eventually be replaced by the newer RS-24, meaning that more UR-100s should become available as a basis for future Rokots.

With over 300 original UR-100s, 130 destroyed by Ukraine and 45 purchased for Rokot - I'd assume up to 100 available at later dates if there's demand. Similarly, there's abundant Dnepr/R-36 with double the capacity, but their maintenance and rebuild were performed in Ukraine.

It appears to be a Rokot-KM with the Ukrainian avionics replaced by Russian.

This has been shot down by the Kremlin and Roscosmos several times now saying the conversional launcher will be retired despite announcements to the contrary from Khrunichev, however there are several Rockots in storage awaiting Ukrainian avionics or a russian replacement.

Report resurfaced a week ago, but with financials to justify the workforce and necessary Russian avionics.

SputnikNews arcticle, cut to avoid link: ht tps://spu tniknews.com/sci ence/201810181068981965-russia-rocket-rokot-launch/
-snips- "The launches of Rokot-2 may begin in 2021 if the decision to resume the project is made in 2018. ..The investment in the project was estimated at 4 billion rubles ..The positive money flow from the implementation of the project before 2025 is estimated at around 500 million rubles, while the annual income from the implementation of the project will increase from 2 billion rubles in the year when the first launches are held to 8.8 billion rubles by 2024-25 .."

Some sites say that Ukraine transferred their ICBM's to Russia.

[Steven Pietrobon]

Website has this ominous notice:

http://www.eurockot.com/

"At the time being the company's activities are on hold until further notice.

Eurockot is therefor not in a position to entertain launch service proposals or requests for employment or internships."

[Arch Admiral]

Yes, the UR-100N missiles deployed in Ukraine were sent to Russia, but by treaty they were decontaminated and scrapped under the supervision of US experts at the 29th Rocket Arsenal at Pibanshur (Balezino-3). You can still see the special buildings constructed for this program at the SE corner of the arsenal. So there is not a giant stockpile of potential Rokot boosters hidden away somewhere.

The many R-36M heavy ICBMs returned from Kazhakhstan were destroyed at another US-supervised facility, but I haven't been able to locate that one.