Recent studies (ref. 1) estimate the observatory to decay in the mid 2030’s with approximately 20% of the mass (ref. 3) of the spacecraft surviving reentry, increasing the probability of casualties on the ground given an uncontrolled reentry. The current NASA requirement for human casualty is 1/10,000 (ref. 5). [...]Results of this study conclude that for the nominal predicted solar activity, and average projected surface area, HST is predicted to reenter Earth’s sensible atmosphere in 2033, with a debris footprint that ranges approximately 350 kilometers (km) to 800 km along the ground track.While the exact location of reentry and footprint were not estimated, the probability of casualty ranges from and average overall risk of 1:330 over the entire inclination region HST crosses to 1:31,000 over the most remotely inhabited region of the South Pacific Ocean from the two simulations conducted. [...]HST was located 489 km above Earth’s surface as of April 2025 with a 28.46-degree inclination and near circular orbit. Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) orbital altitude as of March 2025, Figure 6-2, shows the recent trend, losing approximately 45 km since January 2022 and 5-6 km since January 2025.[...]Results for an average cross-sectional area of 71 m2, derived Cd of 1.74, MSIS atmosphere model, and 50th percentile solar activity prediction MSAFE file produces a possible HST reentry in October 2033. (F-8)Assuming a higher projected area which increases drag, shows earlier reentry times as early as Fall of 2030. Using the minimum projected area pushes out that reentry well into the 2050s.Varying drag coefficient to higher values, +1 sigma (derived from the data in Figure 7.2-2), has a stronger effect on drag and reentry leading to a 2026 possibility, while a –1-sigma drag coefficient pushes out the reentry to 2043. Likewise, an extreme solar prediction environment of the 95th percentile produces a 2027 reentry, and a 5th percentile environment produces a 2034 date
One note from the STScI town hall at #AAS247 today: the median reentry date for Hubble, based on current modeling, is 2033; a <10% chance of reentry by 2029.
Orbital Robotics is also recruiting partners for an effort to save the 35-year-old Hubble Space Telescope from a fiery, mission-ending descent. Kohl said he and his collaborators are working on a white paper about the project that would be reviewed by NASA experts as well as astronauts who participated in previous Hubble servicing missions.The plan calls for building a robotic spacecraft that could attach itself to the telescope, install a star tracker package on its exterior, boost Hubble to a more stable orbit, and then undock.