SpaceX COTS Demo 1 Updates

[Jim]

If they say they ran the analysis, I guess I have to choose whether to believe that, or not. Them being a lot smarter than me, I'm kinda believing they did.

The issue isn't "an" analysis, it is which ones?

Good system engineering says there is more than one.

Engine performance analysis which inputs into a trajectory analysis.
Control analysis update and maybe a gain adjustment.
Then there are plume and thermo analysis. 

there may be others

[Jim_LAX]

500 miles off the coast of Mexico.  And my propeller car is in the shop!

[joshcryer]

Some serious koolade guzzling going on.

Eggnog thank you very much. I'll be drinking the tears of the naysayers when they do a completely nominal launch and recovery.

[Jim]

Some serious koolade guzzling going on.

Eggnog thank you very much. I'll be drinking the tears of the naysayers when they do a completely nominal launch and recovery.

A blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

[joshcryer]

A blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

How many flights will it take before you don't consider SpaceX a "blind squirrel"?

[mr. mark]

Jim, all this joking aside, What's really going on here. Could you put yourself into the minds of Spacex engineers and tell us why they are just not waiting for the new bell to arrive. To me, it seems extremely risky. How do we know that guidance will not be affected? I'd like to know from you what you think.

[Cinder]

A blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

How many flights will it take before you don't consider SpaceX a "blind squirrel"?

Proverbial squirrel might've been you, not SpaceX. 
Incorrectness of this guess is all my responsibility.

[corrodedNut]

What's going here? Not all of the pictures (different days, different times of day?) show this umbilical like this, but what gives?

[jimvela]

Some serious koolade guzzling going on.

Eggnog thank you very much. I'll be drinking the tears of the naysayers when they do a completely nominal launch and recovery.

A blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

Not only that, the trick isn't "just" (!!) getting flight 2 to be successful (with the undivided attention of the entire enterprise, excited and willing to bust butt)

It is in making flights way down the road successful (when the flight rate is high,  there are waves of flight stages going through processing flow, and the once-eager-to-work-unlimited-OT crews are now burnt out and exhausted)

[Jim]

A blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

How many flights will it take before you don't consider SpaceX a "blind squirrel"?

When their success rate is above 90%

[Kabloona]

If they say they ran the analysis, I guess I have to choose whether to believe that, or not. Them being a lot smarter than me, I'm kinda believing they did.

The issue isn't "an" analysis, it is which ones?

Good system engineering says there is more than one.

Engine performance analysis which inputs into a trajectory analysis.
Control analysis update and maybe a gain adjustment.
Then there are plume and thermo analysis. 

there may be others

Yes, I think we all understand that there is more than one "analysis" to be done. The singular of the word "analysis" was from one sentence in Av Week for consumption of the general public. Pretty sure SpaceX doesn't need me to tell them which analyses (plural) to do.

[robertross]

What's going here? Not all of the pictures (different days, different times of day?) show this umbilical like this, but what gives?

Looks like wind shear to me ...lol

(wind blowing a duct around)

[Jim]

What's going here? Not all of the pictures (different days, different times of day?) show this umbilical like this, but what gives?

I would look for the other half on the erector

And it is connected here

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22041.msg667114#msg667114

edit

and it is hanging on the erector on the third pic.

This would have be a big deal for a regular spacecraft to be without ECS.  Especially considering the high winds of the last few days.

[joshcryer]

When their success rate is above 90%

Falcon 9 success rate is 100%.

[jimvela]

When their success rate is above 90%

Falcon 9 success rate is 100%.

I would add "and the sample size is > 5".  E.g. five straight or 9 of 10.

[Jim]

When their success rate is above 90%

Falcon 9 success rate is 100%.

Spacex rate is not 100%

[Lee Jay]

A blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

How many flights will it take before you don't consider SpaceX a "blind squirrel"?

When their success rate is above 90%

Are you including all the failures up to now?  Do you consider Falcon 9 flight one a failure or a success?

[jimvela]

Are you including all the failures up to now?  Do you consider Falcon 9 flight one a failure or a success?

He is correctly counting Falcon 1 flights as SpaceX launch attempts.

[Chandonn]

A blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

How many flights will it take before you don't consider SpaceX a "blind squirrel"?

Now, now.  Jim's right.  They're just a bunch of kids playing with their backyard rockets...  They don't have a clue what they're doing.  Put the Kool-Aid away...  I seem to remember him saying they wouldn't get to orbit... after Falcon 1 flight 4, in fact...

Even a rocket expert is sometimes proven wrong.

[tigerade]

A blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

How many flights will it take before you don't consider SpaceX a "blind squirrel"?

When their success rate is above 90%

Logically, I agree with you.  Above 90% would be reason to be confident technically, which would be 20-30+ successful launches to make up for the first 3 F1 flights (according to my non-mathematical guess work).  There is nothing wrong with your thinking on a logical and technical level.  However, do you really want to wait years until you are willing to cheer for this team of people of SpaceX, who are clearly working their butts off to be successful?  It's more of an emotional issue.  People love the underdog.  I enjoy seeing them try and accomplish these enormous challenges, and they seem to have the will and heart to do it.  You have to remember to make sense of things on an emotional level.  If they were complacent, lazy, or incompetent, then I would be on the same boat with you.  However, I see no evidence of any.  They are giving it their best.  Regardless of the results of this next launch, I think SpaceX is going places.