SpaceX COTS Demo 1 Updates

[hernick]

So when does the COTS Demo 2 thread start?

Are we looking at another seven months between Falcon 9 launches or longer? Jim care to make a prediction?

During the press conference today, Elon said he's hoping for a merged COTS Demo 2/3 in the summer of 2011.

[R.Simko]

So when does the COTS Demo 2 thread start?

Are we looking at another seven months between Falcon 9 launches or longer? Jim care to make a prediction?

During the press conference today, Elon said he's hoping for a merged COTS Demo 2/3 in the summer of 2011.

After the show SpaceX put on today, I think it will be hard for NASA not to agree to a combined COTS 2/3 flight.  SpaceX had a very successful flight, they just need to write up the proposal in a way that addresses any concerns NASA might have.

[arkaska]

After the show SpaceX put on today, I think it will be hard for NASA not to agree to a combined COTS 2/3 flight.  SpaceX had a very successful flight, they just need to write up the proposal in a way that addresses any concerns NASA might have.

Might be a bit early to say that. We haven't seen all data on how it preformed in space and then we have the failed Draco thruster, what does NASA say about that?

[R.Simko]

After the show SpaceX put on today, I think it will be hard for NASA not to agree to a combined COTS 2/3 flight.  SpaceX had a very successful flight, they just need to write up the proposal in a way that addresses any concerns NASA might have.

Might be a bit early to say that. We haven't seen all data on how it preformed in space and then we have the failed Draco thruster, what does NASA say about that?

At the conference this afternoon (Wednesday), it all sounded very positive.  The Dracos have redundancy and I believe I read somewhere that any 2 Dracos could fail and Dragon can still complete its mission.

[kevin-rf]

I think the raised eyebrows are one failed on such a short flight, but then again we don't know what the failure was... there is a wide range of possible failures from the benign to the OMG!!!

[ChuckC]

Anything Ares I can do, Falcon can do - better!

Not defending the stick or anything, but at this point such observations are like beating a horse run over by a steamroller. Twice. Just let this chapter of space history close.

Come on there's alot of fun beating up on the stick.

[butters]

Are we sure that a Draco failed?

I know it was reported here by Chris B citing sources (usually very authoritative), but in the presser Elon specifically said that the Dracos have redundancy but none of them failed. That was one of his examples of how Dragon has a lot of margin but didn't need it today.

Was the alleged Draco failure noted anywhere else?

[mlorrey]

Anything Ares I can do, Falcon can do - better!

Not defending the stick or anything, but at this point such observations are like beating a horse run over by a steamroller. Twice. Just let this chapter of space history close.

Come on there's alot of fun beating up on the stick.

Musk made a rather interesting comment at the presser about how using legacy equipment meant that you inherited the legacy cost structure, which IMHO is aimed at least as much at the Stick, as at Orion costing 10 times more than Dragon to develop.

[R.Simko]

Are we sure that a Draco failed?

I know it was reported here by Chris B citing sources (usually very authoritative), but in the presser Elon specifically said that the Dracos have redundancy but none of them failed. That was one of his examples of how Dragon has a lot of margin but didn't need it today.

Was the alleged Draco failure noted anywhere else?

I also took note of Elon's positve comment about engines.  Hopefully tomorrow  we'll all have more info. on how the Draco's performed.

[pathfinder_01]

Musk made a rather interesting comment at the presser about how using legacy equipment meant that you inherited the legacy cost structure, which IMHO is aimed at least as much at the Stick, as at Orion costing 10 times more than Dragon to develop.

Legacy equipment has advantages and disadvantages. While Falcon's Stong back might have been damaged in this flight, it is one impressive improvement. The ability to bring the rocket to a hanger with a lot more ease than say the crawlers. Can you imagine how much longer it would take to fix a problem on Ares 1, Saturn I, or Saturn V's Second stage?

[zaitcev]

Legacy equipment has advantages and disadvantages. While Falcon's Stong back might have been damaged in this flight, it is one impressive improvement. The ability to bring the rocket to a hanger with a lot more ease than say the crawlers. Can you imagine how much longer it would take to fix a problem on Ares 1, Saturn I, or Saturn V's Second stage?

Falcon was not brought back to hangar for the nozzle cutting. Marty crawled inside the interstage while the rocket was standing on the pad and cut the nozzle right there. So your argument does not support your proposition about the merits of horizontal assembly, although it may be a correct one.

[Kabloona]

After the show SpaceX put on today, I think it will be hard for NASA not to agree to a combined COTS 2/3 flight.  SpaceX had a very successful flight, they just need to write up the proposal in a way that addresses any concerns NASA might have.

Well, it may not be that cut and dried. Alan, the NASA PM, was beaming like a new papa at the start of the presser, but when he was asked about combining COTS 2/3 his smile disappeared and he looked extremely uncomfortable. His mouth gave the predictably non-committal answer, but his expression said, I'm really not happy with this idea.

[Proponent]

Falcon was not brought back to hangar for the nozzle cutting. Marty crawled inside the interstage while the rocket was standing on the pad and cut the nozzle right there.

I'm surprised SpaceX preferred to keep the rocket vertical and use a crane to examine and modify the nozzle.  Why was this approach more attractive than lowering the rocket to the horizontal position and possibly rolling it back to the hangar as well?  As previously pointed out, the crane was neither expensive nor risky, but what would have been the least bit difficult about simply lowering to the horizontal?

[Kabloona]

Falcon was not brought back to hangar for the nozzle cutting. Marty crawled inside the interstage while the rocket was standing on the pad and cut the nozzle right there.

I'm surprised SpaceX preferred to keep the rocket vertical and use a crane to examine and modify the nozzle.  Why was this approach more attractive than lowering the rocket to the horizontal position and possibly rolling it back to the hangar as well?  As previously pointed out, the crane was neither expensive nor risky, but what would have been the least bit difficult about simply lowering to the horizontal?

Because it was easier for Marty and his tin snips to do the repair in a vertical orientation (see the photo of him in the interstage). In fact, it would have been almost impossible in a horizontal orientation, because the nozzle extension is something like 8 ft in diameter at the base.

[Lee Jay]

Falcon was not brought back to hangar for the nozzle cutting. Marty crawled inside the interstage while the rocket was standing on the pad and cut the nozzle right there.

I'm surprised SpaceX preferred to keep the rocket vertical and use a crane to examine and modify the nozzle.  Why was this approach more attractive than lowering the rocket to the horizontal position and possibly rolling it back to the hangar as well?  As previously pointed out, the crane was neither expensive nor risky, but what would have been the least bit difficult about simply lowering to the horizontal?

I was looking at that picture they posted of the technician working in the interstage cutting off the nozzle.  It looks like he was able to stand on a platform and walk around the nozzle with the cut line always around 5 feet off the platform.  If the nozzle had been horizontal, he'd have had to get under it for the bottom, get on a ladder or scaffold for the sides and do I'm-not-sure-what to get to the top.  In other words, it was probably easier in the vertical position.

This is just a guess from the pictures shown.

[baldusi]

Well, it may not be that cut and dried. Alan, the NASA PM, was beaming like a new papa at the start of the presser, but when he was asked about combining COTS 2/3 his smile disappeared and he looked extremely uncomfortable. His mouth gave the predictably non-committal answer, but his expression said, I'm really not happy with this idea.

I think they should allow them to actually berth with the ISS in the next COTS, but still send up the third COTS... with some non critical supplies. So NASA get's their money worth of launches, but they actually do an extra supply shipment. So, if every mission is nominal, they will have 4 Falcon 9 launches, 3 splashdowns and two berthing before relaying on the Dragon for "official" supplies.

[arkaska]

I think they should allow them to actually berth with the ISS in the next COTS, but still send up the third COTS... with some non critical supplies. So NASA get's their money worth of launches, but they actually do an extra supply shipment. So, if every mission is nominal, they will have 4 Falcon 9 launches, 3 splashdowns and two berthing before relaying on the Dragon for "official" supplies.

It the next COTS would berth to ISS there is no point in sending up another COTS. COTS are there to verify the systems BEFORE they berth with ISS..

[butters]

I think the noncommittal answer on COTS2/3 was more because Alan was not authorized to make a public comment either way at that point than because he thought it would be a bad idea.

[SpacexULA]

It the next COTS would berth to ISS there is no point in sending up another COTS. COTS are there to verify the systems BEFORE they berth with ISS..

All the milestones involved with COTS3, and the mission are all together only 50 million total (8 million for the actual launch).   This is cheap compared to the actual CRS missions.  Why would NASA let SpaceX skip COTS 3 when it's basically a 1/2 price CRS delivery.

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/pdf/162330main_SPACE_ACT_AGREEMENT_FOR_COTS.pdf

Honestly today's success just made all the following COTS/CRS milestones a LOT easier because now have a flown dragon to learn lessons from.

[Lars_J]

I think the noncommittal answer on COTS2/3 was more because Alan was not authorized to make a public comment either way at that point than because he thought it would be a bad idea.

Indeed. He can't personally make that decision on the fly in a press conference.

But the signs look very promising, because they could not have asked for a better result than what they got for the 1st flight. (If indeed NASA was serious in entertaining the idea of combining the test flights)

But as Elon noted himself, there are schedule constraints on the SpaceX side as well. They need to have working solar panels and other systems lacking on this Dragon before attempting the 1st ISS berthing.