Factories in Space, The next Revolution?

[Tywin]

Well if the Varda and others companies have success with her fabrics in space, and with the LIFE technology of Sierra, do you think this can be the next big thing in space?

[Lagranger]

In my opinion, the signs are mixed. There are definitely a lot of exciting developments with companies like Varda and Space Forge, but we don't know if they're making money or if they will make money. It feels to me sort of like a repeat of all the excitement about ZBLAN and exotic optical fibers a few years ago, which didn't pan out.

But if it is about to happen, I'm guessing it will happen very suddenly.

[TrevorMonty]

Factories are likely to be unmanned for few reasons.
 Cost, being biggest. No humans in loop means considerable cheaper facilities with no life support. Service vehicles don't need multiple redundant systems as failure won't kill anybody. Docking ports can be whatever size and shape is cheapest to get job done.

Human''s movements introduce vibrations into station damaging microgravity environment.

Station can operate at any temperature, pressure and even gravity if rotating to meet manufacturing requirements.

Orbit optimized for launch pads and LVs  serving it, neither of which needs to support human flight. Eg orbit that maximize mass from Wallops.

[DanClemmensen]

On Earth, the trend is to automate as much as possible, with ever-fewer humans in a factory. This trend seems to be accelerating, which among other things adds to the industrial base that produces even more sophisticated automation. All of this means that is becomes easier to design factories that do not require any humans. This is especially true for space factories.

[trimeta]

Is there a place for mostly unattended manufacturing, where "factory" modules are launched uncrewed and can operate autonomously, but crewed vehicles can visit (either at the start of operations or periodically throughout) so humans can make adjustments? Or would it be easier to just set everything up for completely automatic operation before launching?

[DanClemmensen]

Is there a place for mostly unattended manufacturing, where "factory" modules are launched uncrewed and can operate autonomously, but crewed vehicles can visit (either at the start of operations or periodically throughout) so humans can make adjustments? Or would it be easier to just set everything up for completely automatic operation before launching?

Build the automated factory into an EDL-capable un-crewed Starship. Send materials up in an EDL-capable Cargo Starship that also brings finished product back down. Land the factory occasionally for maintenance.

[Coastal Ron]

Humans have a hard time building unattended factories here on Earth, so why do we think unattended factories in space will be any easier?

Also, WHAT WILL THEY BUILD?

You have to answer that question first before you start asking yourself WHERE the factory will be located.

Factories in space, at least initially, will build things that can only be built in space, either from a cost standpoint or from a practical standpoint. Not sure we know what those "things" are yet, and until we do, talking about "where" is too premature.

[Asteroza]

Is there a place for mostly unattended manufacturing, where "factory" modules are launched uncrewed and can operate autonomously, but crewed vehicles can visit (either at the start of operations or periodically throughout) so humans can make adjustments? Or would it be easier to just set everything up for completely automatic operation before launching?

For the foreseeable future we are probably going to see man-tended stations with factory modules. Things break. Getting a factory module down to full automation and FRU parts that a robot arm can swap is gonna be hard. But making a factory that is human serviceable but unattended is a decent near-term compromise. But that's basically ISS right now, with many more modules. Which means designing a space station to be nominally zero g and expected to accrete modules regularly (so aggressive expansion).

Which has implications on station design, considering power transfer through rotary joints. Something similar to old ISS power tower gravity gradient designs, or something more aligned with the velocity vector?

[meekGee]

Humans have a hard time building unattended factories here on Earth, so why do we think unattended factories in space will be any easier?

Also, WHAT WILL THEY BUILD?

You have to answer that question first before you start asking yourself WHERE the factory will be located.

Factories in space, at least initially, will build things that can only be built in space, either from a cost standpoint or from a practical standpoint. Not sure we know what those "things" are yet, and until we do, talking about "where" is too premature.

The motivation is a lot stronger, that's what's different.

But yeah, it's all theoretical since the magic product is yet to be discovered.

[Tywin]

Humans have a hard time building unattended factories here on Earth, so why do we think unattended factories in space will be any easier?

Also, WHAT WILL THEY BUILD?

You have to answer that question first before you start asking yourself WHERE the factory will be located.

Factories in space, at least initially, will build things that can only be built in space, either from a cost standpoint or from a practical standpoint. Not sure we know what those "things" are yet, and until we do, talking about "where" is too premature.

The motivation is a lot stronger, that's what's different.

But yeah, it's all theoretical since the magic product is yet to be discovered.

ZBLAN and a lot more in the future...

[Tywin]

Rockandrola...

https://spacenews.com/flawless-photonics-kicking-glass/

[meekGee]

Humans have a hard time building unattended factories here on Earth, so why do we think unattended factories in space will be any easier?

Also, WHAT WILL THEY BUILD?

You have to answer that question first before you start asking yourself WHERE the factory will be located.

Factories in space, at least initially, will build things that can only be built in space, either from a cost standpoint or from a practical standpoint. Not sure we know what those "things" are yet, and until we do, talking about "where" is too premature.

The motivation is a lot stronger, that's what's different.

But yeah, it's all theoretical since the magic product is yet to be discovered.

ZBLAN and a lot more in the future...

Can't argue with the future. There's always maybes.  I didn't say there never will be a magic product, but I will say that the likely course of any on-orbit manufacturing is batch capsules, not space stations.

[Tywin]

Humans have a hard time building unattended factories here on Earth, so why do we think unattended factories in space will be any easier?

Also, WHAT WILL THEY BUILD?

You have to answer that question first before you start asking yourself WHERE the factory will be located.

Factories in space, at least initially, will build things that can only be built in space, either from a cost standpoint or from a practical standpoint. Not sure we know what those "things" are yet, and until we do, talking about "where" is too premature.

The motivation is a lot stronger, that's what's different.

But yeah, it's all theoretical since the magic product is yet to be discovered.

ZBLAN and a lot more in the future...

Can't argue with the future. There's always maybes.  I didn't say there never will be a magic product, but I will say that the likely course of any on-orbit manufacturing is batch capsules, not space stations.

All the beginning are tiny...

[Tywin]

3 companies and maybe even more now, in this sector:

https://www.varda.com/

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/varda-space-industries-launches-w-4-with-the-faas-first-ever-reentry-vehicle-operator-license-and-debuts-an-in-house-satellite-bus-302488811.html


https://www.spaceforge.com/

https://www.spaceforge.com/news/the-forge-awakens-space-forge-successfully-launches-forgestar-1-the-uks-first-in-space-manufacturing-satellite


https://www.reditus.space/





Little by little, the revolution is happening.

[Tywin]

Other examples:

https://spacetango.com/latest/pressreleases/space-tango-auxilium-successful-manufacture-of-3d-printed-medical-device-in-space/


https://redwirespace.com/newsroom/going-for-gold-in-microgravity/

https://redwirespace.com/newsroom/redwire-expands-in-space-drug-development-program-launches-new-pil-box-technology-and-cancer-detection-experiment/

[daedalus1]

The ISS was initially sold as an orbital manufacturing facility. That hasn't quite happened.

[Tywin]

The ISS was initially sold as an orbital manufacturing facility. That hasn't quite happened.

yet...

The new space companies, are trying different things now...

[JulesVerneATV]

There are a lot of problems yet to solve but in the future if we had space elevators at the Moons or Mars, and some type of power stations at the Asteroids or Europa or Callisto or Titan, robotic or manned and a way of moving manufactured produced from the surface or the Moon into orbit or Lunar orbit or selenocentric orbit then use of something like Railguns or 'Aldrin Cycler' could come into play as Low Tech 'Hardened' products and more sophisticated equipment gets shipped around the solar system.



Doing simple chemistry production, Farming at Mars, Harvesting Asteroids is going to have its own challenges it is difficult enough for humanity to live in Alaska, Siberia, the high altitude climates or Antarctica yet alone have the ambitions to make a space colony and for it to be profitable and safe and fully functional. DART inspired a lot of debate a test by NASA and the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, an Italian craft made measurements later observations by Hubble, James Webb, Lucy etc it should be interesting to see what ESA mission Hera finds when it arrives at the Didymos system

[spacenut]

What can reasonably be manufactured in space now?  I've heard insulin and ball bearings could.  In zero G with the exact amount of metal injected will pool into a perfect sphere that would need no machining. 

If the moon is to be mined, than the basic raw materials will probably have to be separated out on the surface of the moon.  Then the metals can be spin launched in a container and towed to an in space manufacturing facility.  It would probably have to be an O'Neill sized or Babylon 5 sized facility to handing all the raw material being brought in, smelted, made into the various components, and the finished product come out the other end.  One G can be on the inside outer rim of a spinning station while the center zero G or micro G gravity can be used for the manufacturing area. 

I don't think in space manufacturing will happen until fully reusable rockets are developed and fully operational to make building large facilities in space, mining operations on the moon, or even on Mars can really begin. 

We have to get Starship operational, New Glenn Operational, and get New Armstrong operational first as well as Rocketlab's Neutron rocket and others. 

[lightleviathan]

ZBLAN fibre optics, and other medicines can also be fabricated in space.

[Robotbeat]

What can reasonably be manufactured in space now?  I've heard insulin and ball bearings could.  In zero G with the exact amount of metal injected will pool into a perfect sphere that would need no machining. 

If the moon is to be mined, than the basic raw materials will probably have to be separated out on the surface of the moon.  Then the metals can be spin launched in a container and towed to an in space manufacturing facility.  It would probably have to be an O'Neill sized or Babylon 5 sized facility to handing all the raw material being brought in, smelted, made into the various components, and the finished product come out the other end.  One G can be on the inside outer rim of a spinning station while the center zero G or micro G gravity can be used for the manufacturing area. 

I don't think in space manufacturing will happen until fully reusable rockets are developed and fully operational to make building large facilities in space, mining operations on the moon, or even on Mars can really begin. 

We have to get Starship operational, New Glenn Operational, and get New Armstrong operational first as well as Rocketlab's Neutron rocket and others. 

Yeah, I tend to agree. ISRU/mining really benefits from scale. Unless you’re literally finding gold nuggets or doing very simple ISRU (like MOXIE on Mars) using the atmosphere, you’re going to need large scale to make this worthwhile for export. Stuff on ISS is in general way too small scale. This is true on Earth as well, and likely will be doubly true in space because there’s an overhead to operating in the space environment.

[meekGee]

The ISS was initially sold as an orbital manufacturing facility. That hasn't quite happened.

yet...

The new space companies, are trying different things now...

What new approach does your first link represent?

"As a leader in automated systems, Space Tango provides facilities to support data collection and manufacturing in space"

"CubeLabs provide a standardized platform for automated R&D and manufacturing in remote environments"

They're not manufacturing anything just offering a cubesat platform for others.

How's that a revolution?

Space may, maybe, enable some unique processes, though all that's been proposed to date (how old are ZBLAN fibers?) never even came close.

There's no way to handle waste, it's very difficult to reject low temperature heat, there's no water or air... 

And worse of all, there's no gravity!  0g may be an enabler of a very specific step in a very specific process, but for everything else in industry, you rely on gravity.  Just consider how difficult it is to take a shit on he ISS...

The only thing that makes sense is ISRU on asteroids.

Something like your second link may be feasible, but that's not a revolution, it's a niche process for a new product. The more the better, but it's not affecting existing industry.

[Tywin]

Nice money and upgrade...

https://twitter.com/VardaSpace/status/1943279353141530631

[spacenut]

Medicines are still small scale unless it can be ramped up for mass production for everyone it the world that needs it. 

Until we build O'Neil cylinders or Babylon 5 stations with zero G centers and gravity on the outer wall, serious manufacturing cannot begin.  Experiments maybe, but not serious factory manufacturing. 

First things first, we need Starship and a New Armstrong to work fully reusable to lower launch costs.  Maybe by then, others will build big reusable rockets.  Hopefully Boeing and Lockheed will join with some type of reusable rocket/space plane. 

[Tywin]

Zephyr from IM:

https://www.intuitivemachines.com/zephyr-reentry

[sdsds]

Pretty clearly there's a competition in ideas about the future of space manufacturing. Is it factories in space with raw materials flown up a product flown down or is it manufacturing equipment that visits space with a load of raw materials and returns with a load of product? As launch (and re-entry) costs come down the advantage of getting the equipment back after each production run is that it can be maintained and upgraded between each flight. Big space stations (human occupied or not) are expensive to maintain, as would be any manufacturing equipment aboard them.

[Tywin]

Cross-post:

SpaceX Plans Starship Program for In-Orbit Drug Research

Source

SpaceX is working on a program to use its mammoth Starship rocket to develop commercial products in space, potentially opening up a new business line for the world’s most valuable private startup, according to people familiar with the matter.

From Google Gemini:

Recent reports, including those from the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg, indicate that SpaceX is indeed developing an internal program named "Starfall."

Here's what is known about it:

Purpose: The primary goal of Starfall is to utilize the Starship rocket for the development of commercial products in space. This aims to open up a new business line for SpaceX.

Methodology: Starship would carry small, uncrewed capsules containing products like pharmaceutical components into space. These capsules would then be deployed, spend time in orbit, and eventually re-enter the atmosphere for recovery on Earth.

Benefits of Space Environment: The program seeks to leverage the unique conditions of space, particularly micro-gravity and higher levels of radiation, which can offer new environments for manufacturing various commercial goods. This includes pharmaceutical drugs, semiconductors, food, and even beauty products.

Commercial Potential: This initiative could position SpaceX as a leader in space-based research and development for commercial goods, building on its success in lowering launch costs.

Development Stage: The Starfall program is currently in its early stages of development, and plans could change. Its success is highly dependent on Starship achieving operational reliability, as it has experienced a number of test flight failures.

Timeline: SpaceX reportedly aims to make the program operational roughly by the end of the decade.

Leadership and Partnerships: A team for Starfall has been recently formed under the leadership of Chris Trautner, senior director of vehicle engineering for the Falcon family of rockets. SpaceX is also in talks with potential customers for this service and is working in conjunction with the military on potential defense applications for Starfall.

It's important to note that while the concept of "Starfall" is related to commercial in-space manufacturing, the name might also appear in other contexts, such as in sci-fi games or as a colloquial term for Starship re-entry events. However, in the context of a specific SpaceX program, it refers to this commercial in-orbit research and development initiative.

Sources:


Investing.com
www.investing.com
SpaceX plans Starship program for in-orbit drug research - Bloomberg By Investing.com
Investing.com -- SpaceX is developing a program to utilize its Starship rocket for commercial product development in space, potentially creating a new revenue ...
https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/spacex-plans-starship-program-for-inorbit-drug-research--bloomberg-93CH-4136376

Los Angeles Times
www.latimes.com
SpaceX plans Starship program for in-orbit drug research - Los Angeles Times
Under the plan, internally called Starfall, SpaceX's Starship rocket would bring products like pharmaceutical components to space in small, un
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-07-15/spacex-plans-starship-program-for-in-orbit-drug-research

SpaceX too...

[jongoff]

Cross-post:

SpaceX Plans Starship Program for In-Orbit Drug Research

Source

SpaceX is working on a program to use its mammoth Starship rocket to develop commercial products in space, potentially opening up a new business line for the world’s most valuable private startup, according to people familiar with the matter.

From Google Gemini:

Recent reports, including those from the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg, indicate that SpaceX is indeed developing an internal program named "Starfall."

Here's what is known about it:

Purpose: The primary goal of Starfall is to utilize the Starship rocket for the development of commercial products in space. This aims to open up a new business line for SpaceX.

Methodology: Starship would carry small, uncrewed capsules containing products like pharmaceutical components into space. These capsules would then be deployed, spend time in orbit, and eventually re-enter the atmosphere for recovery on Earth.

Benefits of Space Environment: The program seeks to leverage the unique conditions of space, particularly micro-gravity and higher levels of radiation, which can offer new environments for manufacturing various commercial goods. This includes pharmaceutical drugs, semiconductors, food, and even beauty products.

Commercial Potential: This initiative could position SpaceX as a leader in space-based research and development for commercial goods, building on its success in lowering launch costs.

Development Stage: The Starfall program is currently in its early stages of development, and plans could change. Its success is highly dependent on Starship achieving operational reliability, as it has experienced a number of test flight failures.

Timeline: SpaceX reportedly aims to make the program operational roughly by the end of the decade.

Leadership and Partnerships: A team for Starfall has been recently formed under the leadership of Chris Trautner, senior director of vehicle engineering for the Falcon family of rockets. SpaceX is also in talks with potential customers for this service and is working in conjunction with the military on potential defense applications for Starfall.

It's important to note that while the concept of "Starfall" is related to commercial in-space manufacturing, the name might also appear in other contexts, such as in sci-fi games or as a colloquial term for Starship re-entry events. However, in the context of a specific SpaceX program, it refers to this commercial in-orbit research and development initiative.

Sources:


Investing.com
www.investing.com
SpaceX plans Starship program for in-orbit drug research - Bloomberg By Investing.com
Investing.com -- SpaceX is developing a program to utilize its Starship rocket for commercial product development in space, potentially creating a new revenue ...
https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/spacex-plans-starship-program-for-inorbit-drug-research--bloomberg-93CH-4136376

Los Angeles Times
www.latimes.com
SpaceX plans Starship program for in-orbit drug research - Los Angeles Times
Under the plan, internally called Starfall, SpaceX's Starship rocket would bring products like pharmaceutical components to space in small, un
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-07-15/spacex-plans-starship-program-for-in-orbit-drug-research

SpaceX too...

The cynic in me wonders how real this is. Not everything SpaceX says they'll do ends up happening (see: Falcon V, LOX/LH2 upper stage for Falcon 9, DragonLab, Red Dragon, Dear Moon, etc.). Are they capable of doing it? 120%. Will it actually get prioritized and happen? Or is this like how Microsoft used to announce a new product line that it's smaller competitors were working on, whenever they start gaining traction somewhere? Or more charitably SpaceX floating a trial balloon to explore if there's enough demand for this to justify their attention?

~Jon

[meekGee]

Cross-post:

SpaceX Plans Starship Program for In-Orbit Drug Research

Source

SpaceX is working on a program to use its mammoth Starship rocket to develop commercial products in space, potentially opening up a new business line for the world’s most valuable private startup, according to people familiar with the matter.

From Google Gemini:

Recent reports, including those from the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg, indicate that SpaceX is indeed developing an internal program named "Starfall."

Here's what is known about it:

Purpose: The primary goal of Starfall is to utilize the Starship rocket for the development of commercial products in space. This aims to open up a new business line for SpaceX.

Methodology: Starship would carry small, uncrewed capsules containing products like pharmaceutical components into space. These capsules would then be deployed, spend time in orbit, and eventually re-enter the atmosphere for recovery on Earth.

Benefits of Space Environment: The program seeks to leverage the unique conditions of space, particularly micro-gravity and higher levels of radiation, which can offer new environments for manufacturing various commercial goods. This includes pharmaceutical drugs, semiconductors, food, and even beauty products.

Commercial Potential: This initiative could position SpaceX as a leader in space-based research and development for commercial goods, building on its success in lowering launch costs.

Development Stage: The Starfall program is currently in its early stages of development, and plans could change. Its success is highly dependent on Starship achieving operational reliability, as it has experienced a number of test flight failures.

Timeline: SpaceX reportedly aims to make the program operational roughly by the end of the decade.

Leadership and Partnerships: A team for Starfall has been recently formed under the leadership of Chris Trautner, senior director of vehicle engineering for the Falcon family of rockets. SpaceX is also in talks with potential customers for this service and is working in conjunction with the military on potential defense applications for Starfall.

It's important to note that while the concept of "Starfall" is related to commercial in-space manufacturing, the name might also appear in other contexts, such as in sci-fi games or as a colloquial term for Starship re-entry events. However, in the context of a specific SpaceX program, it refers to this commercial in-orbit research and development initiative.

Sources:


Investing.com
www.investing.com
SpaceX plans Starship program for in-orbit drug research - Bloomberg By Investing.com
Investing.com -- SpaceX is developing a program to utilize its Starship rocket for commercial product development in space, potentially creating a new revenue ...
https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/spacex-plans-starship-program-for-inorbit-drug-research--bloomberg-93CH-4136376

Los Angeles Times
www.latimes.com
SpaceX plans Starship program for in-orbit drug research - Los Angeles Times
Under the plan, internally called Starfall, SpaceX's Starship rocket would bring products like pharmaceutical components to space in small, un
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-07-15/spacex-plans-starship-program-for-in-orbit-drug-research

SpaceX too...

The cynic in me wonders how real this is. Not everything SpaceX says they'll do ends up happening (see: Falcon V, LOX/LH2 upper stage for Falcon 9, DragonLab, Red Dragon, Dear Moon, etc.). Are they capable of doing it? 120%. Will it actually get prioritized and happen? Or is this like how Microsoft used to announce a new product line that it's smaller competitors were working on, whenever they start gaining traction somewhere? Or more charitably SpaceX floating a trial balloon to explore if there's enough demand for this to justify their attention?

~Jon

Agreed.

I was speaking to a competitor in the private surveillance field, and the big question of course was "if your idea is so clever, what prevents SpaceX from adding it to one of its orbital platforms"

The answer was that competitors feel that there's a large enough window between what's lucrative to investors and where SpaceX starts getting interested - large enough to build a profitable business in.

If this is real, I expect that there's a very specific process with a known market already identified, the market being large enough for SpaceX to spend the bandwidth on.

The fact that they're talking about reentry capsules means either that they need very long production times, or a very pristine environment that they can't modify Starship to provide.

Or that this is not really real.

[Tywin]

Interesting this:

https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/26/3/1287

Space exploration has progressed from contemporary discoveries to current endeavors, such as space tourism and Mars missions. As human activity in space accelerates, understanding the physiological effects of microgravity on the human body is becoming increasingly critical. This study analyzes transcriptomic data from human cell lines exposed to microgravity, investigates its effects on gene expression, and identifies potential therapeutic interventions for health challenges posed by spaceflight. Our analysis identified five under-expressed genes (DNPH1, EXOSC5, L3MBTL2, LGALS3BP, SPRYD4) and six over-expressed genes (CSGALNACT2, CSNK2A2, HIPK1, MBNL2, PHF21A, RAP1A), all of which exhibited distinct expression patterns in response to microgravity. Enrichment analysis highlighted significant biological functions influenced by these conditions, while in silico drug repurposing identified potential modulators that could counteract these changes. This study introduces a novel approach to addressing health challenges during space missions by repurposing existing drugs and identifies specific genes and pathways as potential biomarkers for microgravity effects on human health. Our findings represent the first systematic effort to repurpose drugs for spaceflight, establishing a foundation for the development of targeted therapies for astronauts. Future research should aim to validate these findings in authentic space environments and explore broader biological impacts.

[Vultur]

What can reasonably be manufactured in space now?  I've heard insulin and ball bearings could.  In zero G with the exact amount of metal injected will pool into a perfect sphere that would need no machining. 

If the moon is to be mined, than the basic raw materials will probably have to be separated out on the surface of the moon.  Then the metals can be spin launched in a container and towed to an in space manufacturing facility.  It would probably have to be an O'Neill sized or Babylon 5 sized facility to handing all the raw material being brought in, smelted, made into the various components, and the finished product come out the other end.  One G can be on the inside outer rim of a spinning station while the center zero G or micro G gravity can be used for the manufacturing area. 

I don't think in space manufacturing will happen until fully reusable rockets are developed and fully operational to make building large facilities in space, mining operations on the moon, or even on Mars can really begin. 

We have to get Starship operational, New Glenn Operational, and get New Armstrong operational first as well as Rocketlab's Neutron rocket and others. 

Yeah, I tend to agree. ISRU/mining really benefits from scale. Unless you’re literally finding gold nuggets or doing very simple ISRU (like MOXIE on Mars) using the atmosphere, you’re going to need large scale to make this worthwhile for export. Stuff on ISS is in general way too small scale. This is true on Earth as well, and likely will be doubly true in space because there’s an overhead to operating in the space environment.

I think there's a huge divide between very high value to mass/small mass products where zero g helps (medicines, or 3D printed corneas or ZBLAN or whatever) and "bulk" manufacturing (like metals and such).

The first model is what is being worked on now (Varda, Space Forge).

I am personally a little skeptical of mining the Moon. It has enough gravity well to be a pain. If you have the in-space infrastructure to build massive space habitats/facilities, using asteroids for your material might be easier energy wise. (Or Deimos, I believe it's actually "closer" to Earth delta-V wise than the Moon surface).

The advantage of the Moon as a resource source would be closeness in time, including near real time communications. (unless you move a small asteroid, that is)

But I'm not sure what you can get from the Moon that is hard to get on Earth. Undifferentiated asteroids might be rich in metals that are mostly stuck in the Earth's core, but the Moon is post-differentiation.

[meekGee]

Zero g enabled industry might make sense, if ever such a process is identified and if indeed you can't bypass it in 1 g.

Otherwise, it'll make sense to ISRU on Mars for Mars, on asteroids for asteroid belt stations, and maybe on the moon for lunar habitation (more skeptical about that last one)

LEO for Earth, however - I have a hard time seeing this. Even with almost-free starship-like launch. There's almost zero incentive to do it, actually there's almost every negative incentive.

I think JB was barking up the wrong tree and has realized this since.

[AmigaClone]

The cynic in me wonders how real this is. Not everything SpaceX says they'll do ends up happening (see: Falcon V, LOX/LH2 upper stage for Falcon 9, DragonLab, Red Dragon, Dear Moon, etc.). Are they capable of doing it? 120%. Will it actually get prioritized and happen? Or is this like how Microsoft used to announce a new product line that it's smaller competitors were working on, whenever they start gaining traction somewhere? Or more charitably SpaceX floating a trial balloon to explore if there's enough demand for this to justify their attention?

~Jon

I would subtract DragonLab and DearMoon from your list. As far as I know, DragonLab never saw any interested customers who wanted their interest known to the general public. DearMoon was cancelled by the customer due to Starship not progressing as fast as they wanted.
On the other hand, you could add Falcon 1e, a version of Falcon Heavy that would use two Falcon V first stages as side boosters, Falcon 9 Air, Falcon 9/ Falcon Heavy second stage with a methalox (Raptor) engine...

[Vultur]

Zero g enabled industry might make sense, if ever such a process is identified and if indeed you can't bypass it in 1 g.

Otherwise, it'll make sense to ISRU on Mars for Mars, on asteroids for asteroid belt stations, and maybe on the moon for lunar habitation (more skeptical about that last one)

LEO for Earth, however - I have a hard time seeing this. Even with almost-free starship-like launch. There's almost zero incentive to do it, actually there's almost every negative incentive.

I think JB was barking up the wrong tree and has realized this since.

Welllll there actually is an incentive, just not a financial one. Arguably it's a benefit to move as much industry outside the biosphere as possible. But if theres any way to pay for that if it's not financially sensible...

[meekGee]

Zero g enabled industry might make sense, if ever such a process is identified and if indeed you can't bypass it in 1 g.

Otherwise, it'll make sense to ISRU on Mars for Mars, on asteroids for asteroid belt stations, and maybe on the moon for lunar habitation (more skeptical about that last one)

LEO for Earth, however - I have a hard time seeing this. Even with almost-free starship-like launch. There's almost zero incentive to do it, actually there's almost every negative incentive.

I think JB was barking up the wrong tree and has realized this since.

Welllll there actually is an incentive, just not a financial one. Arguably it's a benefit to move as much industry outside the biosphere as possible. But if theres any way to pay for that if it's not financially sensible...

There's that kind of incentive to much easier things, like switching to an all electric energy infrastructure already...

So yes, I meant "incentive" other than the main motive to do it in the first place.

I'll also argue that there's no real connection between finding a niche process that wants to be in zero-g, and moving global-scale polluting industries to orbit.

I mean, these large-scale processes (think petrochemical, metal foundries, cement) they need an environment to operate in.  They can't operate in a space station - it's not just a matter of capital efficiency. They sit next to rivers so they can dump heat and waste, right?  Where are you going to dump the waste? Orbit is a terrible dumping ground.

[Vultur]

10
Zero g enabled industry might make sense, if ever such a process is identified and if indeed you can't bypass it in 1 g.

Otherwise, it'll make sense to ISRU on Mars for Mars, on asteroids for asteroid belt stations, and maybe on the moon for lunar habitation (more skeptical about that last one)

LEO for Earth, however - I have a hard time seeing this. Even with almost-free starship-like launch. There's almost zero incentive to do it, actually there's almost every negative incentive.

I think JB was barking up the wrong tree and has realized this since.

Welllll there actually is an incentive, just not a financial one. Arguably it's a benefit to move as much industry outside the biosphere as possible. But if theres any way to pay for that if it's not financially sensible...

There's that kind of incentive to much easier things, like switching to an all electric energy infrastructure already...

"Easier" has more than one dimension.

Changing infrastructure that already exists on Earth, with lots of people already working in and using it, has social and political aspects that can't be handled just with technology and money. It also has a very different regulatory environment than launching things into space or operating them once in space.

Space manufacturing is harder financially and technologically, but not in those other aspects.

(This isn't an earth vs space thing, it's about changing stuff already established vs new stuff. Building an all electric infrastructure city from empty ranchland would also be easier in these aspects.)
 

I'll also argue that there's no real connection between finding a niche process that wants to be in zero-g, and moving global-scale polluting industries to orbit.

I agree, they're two separate things with different incentives, one is being worked on now and one is quite speculative. But this thread seems to be for discussing both?

For the large scale one, I think the path to get there would be after/if space solar power already exists. You can then use the energy more efficiently, without transmission losses to Earth. You'd probably start with things like data centers, not manufacturing, but it would start the building of major space infrastructure.

I mean, these large-scale processes (think petrochemical, metal foundries, cement) they need an environment to operate in.  They can't operate in a space station - it's not just a matter of capital efficiency. They sit next to rivers so they can dump heat and waste, right?  Where are you going to dump the waste? Orbit is a terrible dumping ground.

Hmm, well, I was thinking a different set of industrial processes, with the only overlap being metals.

Petrochemicals are oil based, no fossil fuels on Moon or asteroids. Sure you can make them other ways (eg bioplastics) but then why not do it on Earth and sequester a bit more carbon out of the atmosphere?

Cement industry isn't going to be movable to space, the primary raw material is limestone which forms in oceans. No limestone deposits on Moon, asteroids, etc. You'd have to use alternate concretes on Moon or Mars, and there's no way they'd be shipped to Earth.

Metals though... There are plenty of metals available. Low hanging fruit are the precious metals, gold mining has *enormous* environmental (and often human) costs for a relatively small amount of material produced. Same for some other technologically important metals that aren't really considered "precious metals", like tantalum or tungsten.

There's lots of iron of course, but steel made in space ... Can't see a good way to deliver it to Earth. Would be great for building O'Neill style habitats though!

Heat would have to be handled by radiators. If you can build space solar power, you can do that.

Waste management would depend on how the processing was actually done. I don't think it would look very much like current Esrth industrial facilities.With the ultra low gravity of a small asteroid, though, accelerating it away to escape velocity should take very little energy. You could use the delta v of this waste disposal to alter the orbit of the remaining valuable bits of the asteroids; since you have to deliver the product to where it will be used anyway, there's arguably zero "waste" (it all becomes "propellant").

I've seen ideas about basically "cooking" asteroids with concentrated solar heat - lighter stuff boils off leaving refractory valuable metals.

Or if the mining looks more like robot "bugs" "chewing up" an asteroid, then they transport away the valuable metals and the remaining asteroid IS the waste pile.

[Tywin]

Another company more:

https://spacenews.com/orbital-paradigm-readies-first-reentry-mission/

https://orbitalparadigm.space/

[Greg Hullender]

I'd argue that factories in space only make sense if they're doing something very different from what we do on the ground. E.g. a KREEP strip mine on the moon that uses concentrated solar power to implement some refinement technique that needs high heat plus a vacuum plus a complete lack of concern about pollution to produce products worth thousands of dollars per kg.

As far as LEO goes, I'm a little disappointed that in 50 years no one seems to have found any manufacturing process that benefits enough from vacuum and zero-g to be worth doing in space. Maybe if lift prices were $100/kg instead of $1500 and if there were a big government-sponsored lab that encouraged companies to do research up there . . .

[Vultur]

As far as LEO goes, I'm a little disappointed that in 50 years no one seems to have found any manufacturing process that benefits enough from vacuum and zero-g to be worth doing in space.

Isn't that exactly what Varda is doing?

[Tywin]

Very interesting this company:


https://payloadspace.com/besxar-emerges-from-stealth-with-spacex-launch-deal/

Making semiconductors on Earth is full of downsides, according to Pilipiszyn. Manufacturers are investing heavily in vacuum technology to remove as many contaminants as possible and develop the best semiconductors. These silicon semiconductors, however, still aren’t strong enough for the demands of new technologies: AI data centers, directed-energy weapons, etc.

By taking the manufacturing process to orbit, Besxar is able to use the ultra-high vacuum of space to manufacture better semiconductor wafers for a fraction of the cost—even when factoring in the costs to get to space and back, according to Pilipiszyn.

[/b]

[Tywin]

Great from Stoke represent about, the microgravity factories of the future...

[Tywin]

Good infographic:


Many more companies exist today.

[Tywin]

Another company interesting:

https://www.luxaeterna.com/

https://twitter.com/SpaceNews_Inc/status/2001352712802218314