Author Topic: The Case against CubeSats?  (Read 7915 times)

Offline Hermes

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The Case against CubeSats?
« on: 03/31/2023 12:29 am »
Hi all,

This is more of a question than a contrarian argument.
As a space enthusiast, I am excited by the CubeSat movement and its efforts to mainstream a low-cost, modular satellite platform.

At the same time, I am a little confused by all of the energy that has gone into CubeSat/nanosat development over the last few years.

Here's my doubt:

As I see it there are two main use cases for orbital satellites:
1. Remote sensing/earth observation
2. Telecomms

Larger companies like Planet Labs seem to have earth observation covered. Starlink will quickly take over telecomms. Basically, they appear to be covering the two major orbital satellite categories without needing to take advantage of the smaller, cheaper CubeSat/nanosat model.

What major commercial need (>$1B) is there for orbital satellites that is not already satisfied? What reason is there to expect major growth of the CubeSat industry in the near future? I understand that ~24,000 CubeSats are scheduled for launch over the next ten years, but that doesn't seem like a great financial opportunity+I hear CubeSat growth is expected to taper off soon.

I see optimistic cases being made that falling launch costs and affordable CubeSats will cause an explosion of satellites being released into our orbits, but I'm not really sure what they'll be use for other than (for example) a wildfire remote sensing constellation here and there and smaller scale research science projects. That's a small market.

It just doesn't seem to me like there's very much money to be made in the satellite space if you're not SpaceX or Blue Origin or Planet Labs. Is it possible that the brainpower and $$ going towards CubeSat/nanosat development would be better allocated towards other, more scalable aspects of the space industry?

Something is just not adding up for me. But I am not as knowledgeable as most of the folks on this forum and I'd be very happy to be proven wrong, as I think I likely am. Big respect for all the hardworking + innovative people working in this area. This post has a provocative title, but that's just so that I attract people who want to prove me wrong :)

I'd be very grateful for your insights and rebuttals!
« Last Edit: 03/31/2023 12:30 am by Hermes »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: The Case against CubeSats?
« Reply #1 on: 03/31/2023 12:32 am »
Cubesats or something like them will always be useful. For training up engineers if nothing else. From the beginning of the space race, microsatellites have been used.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Hermes

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Re: The Case against CubeSats?
« Reply #2 on: 03/31/2023 12:37 am »
Cubesats or something like them will always be useful. For training up engineers if nothing else. From the beginning of the space race, microsatellites have been used.

Thank you @Robotbeat. More broadly, what do you think about my question as applies to the whole satellite space? There are so many companies providing services ranging from propulsion to solar panels. But how much will that space really grow over the next ten years given that Starlink will dominate space-based Internet and Planet Labs will probably dominate remote sensing?

A lot of space entrepreneurs are hoping for/anticipating major growth in the satellite space with falling launch costs, but I don't really see where it will come from.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: The Case against CubeSats?
« Reply #3 on: 03/31/2023 12:54 am »
The whole pie grows. There are more US non-SpaceX launches now than before SpaceX. I wouldn’t worry too much.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Hermes

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Re: The Case against CubeSats?
« Reply #4 on: 03/31/2023 01:01 am »
The whole pie grows. There are more US non-SpaceX launches now than before SpaceX. I wouldn’t worry too much.

True, thank you. Do you mean that the pie grows in orbit as well as on earth, so that we can expect more providers of space internet than just Starlink, more larges scale providers of earth imagining than just Planet?

I'm trying to build a better picture for myself of how the space economy will change over the next ten years. My intuition for this is very fuzzy at the moment.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: The Case against CubeSats?
« Reply #5 on: 03/31/2023 10:45 am »
Lot of Cubesats applications have moved onto smallsats 50-250kg as they have more capabilities. Larger satellites have bigger antennaes, solar panels, radiators for heat rejection and better propulsion. Sometimes bigger is better.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: The Case against CubeSats?
« Reply #6 on: 03/31/2023 12:39 pm »
The whole pie grows. There are more US non-SpaceX launches now than before SpaceX. I wouldn’t worry too much.

True, thank you. Do you mean that the pie grows in orbit as well as on earth, so that we can expect more providers of space internet than just Starlink, more larges scale providers of earth imagining than just Planet?

I'm trying to build a better picture for myself of how the space economy will change over the next ten years. My intuition for this is very fuzzy at the moment.
Yeah, there is already OneWeb, which is also planning its larger constellation. Kuiper will probably be even bigger and will do direct to consumer service, unlike OneWeb.

Swarm satellites are providing cheap satellite IoT connectivity with 0.25 U satellites, ridiculously small. (Swarm was bought by SpaceX, but they fly on whoever.)
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

 

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