Quote from: RedLineTrain on 05/29/2024 09:48 pmI know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship. Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills). Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.This made milk come out of my nose.
I know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship. Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills). Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.
Quote from: RedLineTrain on 05/29/2024 09:48 pmI know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship. Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills). Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.Only a handful of those missions are smallsat rideshare rest of payloads couldn't(to heavy) or wouldn't( large constellations) fly on small LV.
Quote from: TrevorMonty on 05/31/2024 04:25 pmQuote from: RedLineTrain on 05/29/2024 09:48 pmI know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship. Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills). Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.Only a handful of those missions are smallsat rideshare rest of payloads couldn't(to heavy) or wouldn't( large constellations) fly on small LV. The point is that Falcon is still hungry for payloads. If the company finds enough demand at current price points, it will put additional rideshares on the board. If all other rockets go away, Falcon will still be hungry for payloads of all shapes, sizes, quantities and orbits.This is a bit different dynamic than we might have predicted, say, last year. It's certainly much different from when all of these launch vehicle programs were funded.
The point is that Falcon is still hungry for payloads. If the company finds enough demand at current price points, it will put additional rideshares on the board. If all other rockets go away, Falcon will still be hungry for payloads of all shapes, sizes, quantities and orbits.
Quote from: Jim on 05/31/2024 02:12 pmQuote from: RedLineTrain on 05/29/2024 09:48 pmI know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship. Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills). Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.This made milk come out of my nose.The last 30 days had 14 flights. That's over 170 a year. Add one pad and one barge and you're at 225/yr without even assuming any further increase in flight rate.And you don't have to wait for 2026 for that.The prediction of 250-300 in 2026 is as absurd as 100 launches was for 2023.
We don't live in a world without Starship, though, so we probably won't see Falcon 9 numbers like that. I think Falcon 9 launches will peak in 2025, before starting to drop off.
Quote from: Yggdrasill on 06/02/2024 05:43 amWe don't live in a world without Starship, though, so we probably won't see Falcon 9 numbers like that. I think Falcon 9 launches will peak in 2025, before starting to drop off.The OP phrased it carefully: if Starship doesn't take over, Falcon can get to 250-300 in 2026.I'm a Starship optimist, but the road ahead is anything but certain. I'm pretty confident it's a "when" not an "if", but the error bars on the schedule are crazy high.SpaxeX is adding a barge and 1-2 pads. That's not the behavior of someone who thinks 2025 is peak for sure.And I'll repeat my prediction: If they get to 5 pads, (each capable of firing every 5 days), you're looking at the possibility of a "30 in 30" month.
Quote from: meekGee on 06/01/2024 02:11 pmQuote from: Jim on 05/31/2024 02:12 pmQuote from: RedLineTrain on 05/29/2024 09:48 pmI know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship. Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills). Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.This made milk come out of my nose.The last 30 days had 14 flights. That's over 170 a year. Add one pad and one barge and you're at 225/yr without even assuming any further increase in flight rate.And you don't have to wait for 2026 for that.The prediction of 250-300 in 2026 is as absurd as 100 launches was for 2023.Not going to happen. Don't have or need the throughput. Starship will be there anyways
....If Transporter didn't exist, who would make enough small launchers to keep up?
Quote from: meekGee on 06/02/2024 07:59 pm....If Transporter didn't exist, who would make enough small launchers to keep up?I suspect a big percentage of the transporter payloads would not exist if they had to pay for a dedicated launch.
Quote from: mn on 06/02/2024 09:18 pmQuote from: meekGee on 06/02/2024 07:59 pm....If Transporter didn't exist, who would make enough small launchers to keep up?I suspect a big percentage of the transporter payloads would not exist if they had to pay for a dedicated launch.Yup that too... Falcon, directly and indirectly, created its own demand and will continue to do so.
“The market is fairly tight right now,” he said. Scout explored the possibility of booking a ride on a SpaceX Transporter smallsat rideshare, but would have had to wait more than a year for an available slot. ABL, on the other hand, has committed to launching the Owlet mission before the end of the year.
Falcon 9 rideshare availability maybe not so elastic after all?Quote“The market is fairly tight right now,” he said. Scout explored the possibility of booking a ride on a SpaceX Transporter smallsat rideshare, but would have had to wait more than a year for an available slot. ABL, on the other hand, has committed to launching the Owlet mission before the end of the year.
Looks like rideshare isn't for everybody. Thought some of these satellites could've used rideshare.https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240617700318/en/Rocket-Lab-Signs-Record-Deal-for-10-Electron-Launches-with-Synspective