Author Topic: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market  (Read 114462 times)

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #500 on: 05/31/2024 02:28 pm »
Happy to entertain you, Jim.  What do you believe SpaceX Falcon flight rate in 2026 will be?
« Last Edit: 05/31/2024 02:29 pm by RedLineTrain »

Offline meekGee

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #501 on: 05/31/2024 02:50 pm »

I know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship.  Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills).  Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.


This made milk come out of my nose.
They're adding about 40-50 / yr using 3 barges and pads. Expect 150 flights this year and 200 in 2025. Some higher number in 2026, but then also expect a 4/3 increase with an extra pad and barge. That's firmly in the 250-300 range, barring some external influence like Starship.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2024 02:51 pm by meekGee »
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Offline TrevorMonty



I know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship.  Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills).  Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.



Only a handful of those missions are smallsat rideshare rest of payloads couldn't(to heavy) or wouldn't( large constellations) fly on small LV. 

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #503 on: 05/31/2024 05:59 pm »
I know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship.  Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills).  Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.
Only a handful of those missions are smallsat rideshare rest of payloads couldn't(to heavy) or wouldn't( large constellations) fly on small LV.

The point is that Falcon is still hungry for payloads.  If the company finds enough demand at current price points, it will put additional rideshares on the board.  If all other rockets go away, Falcon will still be hungry for payloads of all shapes, sizes, quantities and orbits.

This is a bit different dynamic than we might have predicted, say, last year.  It's certainly much different from when all of these launch vehicle programs were funded.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2024 06:13 pm by RedLineTrain »

Offline TrevorMonty

I know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship.  Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills).  Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.
Only a handful of those missions are smallsat rideshare rest of payloads couldn't(to heavy) or wouldn't( large constellations) fly on small LV.

The point is that Falcon is still hungry for payloads.  If the company finds enough demand at current price points, it will put additional rideshares on the board.  If all other rockets go away, Falcon will still be hungry for payloads of all shapes, sizes, quantities and orbits.

This is a bit different dynamic than we might have predicted, say, last year.  It's certainly much different from when all of these launch vehicle programs were funded.
All LVs are hungry for payloads doesn't mean there will profitable payloads for them to fly. 

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #505 on: 05/31/2024 07:07 pm »
The point is that Falcon is still hungry for payloads.  If the company finds enough demand at current price points, it will put additional rideshares on the board.  If all other rockets go away, Falcon will still be hungry for payloads of all shapes, sizes, quantities and orbits.
I'm not sure this is exactly true, and I'm not sure outsiders can determine this, because SpaceX owns Starlink. This (more or less) means they have all the payloads they can launch. In a theoretically sane world, they would only accept a non-Starlink payload when the profit is higher than the internal profit provided by a Starlink launch. The world is neither theoretical or sane, so reality will differ.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #506 on: 06/01/2024 02:11 pm »

I know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship.  Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills).  Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.


This made milk come out of my nose.
The last 30 days had 14 flights.  That's over 170 a year.  Add one pad and one barge and you're at 225/yr without even assuming any further increase in flight rate.

And you don't have to wait for 2026 for that.

The prediction of 250-300 in 2026 is as absurd as 100 launches was for 2023.

« Last Edit: 06/01/2024 08:51 pm by meekGee »
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Offline Yggdrasill

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #507 on: 06/02/2024 05:43 am »
We don't live in a world without Starship, though, so we probably won't see Falcon 9 numbers like that. I think Falcon 9 launches will peak in 2025, before starting to drop off.

Offline Jim

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #508 on: 06/02/2024 12:13 pm »

I know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship.  Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills).  Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.


This made milk come out of my nose.
The last 30 days had 14 flights.  That's over 170 a year.  Add one pad and one barge and you're at 225/yr without even assuming any further increase in flight rate.

And you don't have to wait for 2026 for that.

The prediction of 250-300 in 2026 is as absurd as 100 launches was for 2023.



Not going to happen.  Don't have or need the throughput.  Starship will be there anyways

Offline meekGee

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #509 on: 06/02/2024 01:49 pm »
We don't live in a world without Starship, though, so we probably won't see Falcon 9 numbers like that. I think Falcon 9 launches will peak in 2025, before starting to drop off.
The OP phrased it carefully:  if Starship doesn't take over, Falcon can get to 250-300 in 2026.

I'm a Starship optimist, but the road ahead is anything but certain.  I'm pretty confident it's a "when" not an "if", but the error bars on the schedule are crazy high.

SpaxeX is adding a barge and 1-2 pads. That's not the behavior of someone who thinks 2025 is peak for sure.

And I'll repeat my prediction: If they get to 5 pads, (each capable of firing every 5 days), you're looking at the possibility of a "30 in 30" month.
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Offline AmigaClone

We don't live in a world without Starship, though, so we probably won't see Falcon 9 numbers like that. I think Falcon 9 launches will peak in 2025, before starting to drop off.
The OP phrased it carefully:  if Starship doesn't take over, Falcon can get to 250-300 in 2026.

I'm a Starship optimist, but the road ahead is anything but certain.  I'm pretty confident it's a "when" not an "if", but the error bars on the schedule are crazy high.

SpaxeX is adding a barge and 1-2 pads. That's not the behavior of someone who thinks 2025 is peak for sure.

And I'll repeat my prediction: If they get to 5 pads, (each capable of firing every 5 days), you're looking at the possibility of a "30 in 30" month.

I can see SpaceX managing that feat with 4 Falcon 9 pads - Granted that might be more a one-shot type of thing just to prove it could be done.

I can see Falcon 9 Block 5 flying over 500 missions - between now and and the end of 2026.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #511 on: 06/02/2024 07:59 pm »

I know this sounds harsh and unreasonable, but Falcon 9 itself is proving to be an extinction-level event, let alone Starship.  Absent Starship, Falcon 9 will be flying 250-300 times in 2026 (the vast majority of which will be packed to the gills).  Nobody had this in their business plans that they used to justify their launch investments.


This made milk come out of my nose.
The last 30 days had 14 flights.  That's over 170 a year.  Add one pad and one barge and you're at 225/yr without even assuming any further increase in flight rate.

And you don't have to wait for 2026 for that.

The prediction of 250-300 in 2026 is as absurd as 100 launches was for 2023.



Not going to happen.  Don't have or need the throughput.  Starship will be there anyways
I'm glad to see how optimistic you are about Starship, but honestly it's no different than F9 say in 2019, before it started ramping up.  Much uncertainty ahead.

But let's get back to the topic of other launchers.  You say there's no need for more launch capacity.  But:

If NG is slow getting going, which is not a crazy proposition, who will launch Kuiper?

Certainly DoD is getting into constellations - will other governments follow?  And who will launch those?

Ride sharing is proving to be a success - do you think we've heard the last of that?

And finally, suppose Starship is slow getting going - who's launching Starlink meanwhile?

We're midway through 2024.  It's pretty clear 2025 is still Full Tilt Falcon.  It won't take much to push that into 2026.  Again - why is SpaceX building more Falcon infrastructure that will only kick in early 2025?  Surely they're not building it to operate for only a single year, right?

You find 250/year preposterous, but what would you have said only a few years ago about launching (Heavens to Betsy) once a month and surpassing (unthinkable!) ULA?  How about launching once a week and surpassing the rest of the world?   Because twice a week is far in the rear view mirror now.

That's the problem with small launchers. They were pitched as constellation launchers, but they neglected the sheer size of constellations.  Satellites are growing smaller, but constellations and the market in general are growing larger at a much faster rate.

If Transporter didn't exist, who would make enough small launchers to keep up?
« Last Edit: 06/02/2024 08:01 pm by meekGee »
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Offline mn

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #512 on: 06/02/2024 09:18 pm »
....
If Transporter didn't exist, who would make enough small launchers to keep up?

I suspect a big percentage of the transporter payloads would not exist if they had to pay for a dedicated launch.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #513 on: 06/03/2024 02:21 am »
....
If Transporter didn't exist, who would make enough small launchers to keep up?

I suspect a big percentage of the transporter payloads would not exist if they had to pay for a dedicated launch.
Yup that too...  Falcon, directly and indirectly, created its own demand and will continue to do so.
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Offline Exastro

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #514 on: 06/03/2024 02:46 am »
....
If Transporter didn't exist, who would make enough small launchers to keep up?

I suspect a big percentage of the transporter payloads would not exist if they had to pay for a dedicated launch.
Yup that too...  Falcon, directly and indirectly, created its own demand and will continue to do so.
Slightly off-topic, but it occurred to me that Falcon is probably helping create demand for startups' medium launchers as well, by making them less risky to book.  So if you've got a payload that needs to be in orbit by 2026, you can book a ride on a rocket scheduled to be operational by that year, knowing that if they slip or fail completely there's still chance you can fall back to Falcon.  It'd be a riskier bet without that option.

Offline Exastro

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #515 on: 06/07/2024 10:20 pm »
New SpaceNews article by Pierre Lionnet of Eurospace with economic conclusions based on a financial model of SpaceX.  I haven't seen their model and can't vouch for its reliability, but:

* The model seems to rule out the claim by Rocket Lab and others that SpaceX is underpricing their launches to kill their competitors.

* The low Falcon launch cost required by the model are the enabler of Starlink profitability starting in 2023.  Lack of similarly cheap rides to orbit probably prevents Kuiper et al. from becoming profitable.

Lionnet raises the question opposite the one that prompted this thread:  Is SpaceX treating its customers unfairly by keeping their launch prices too high?
« Last Edit: 06/07/2024 10:20 pm by Exastro »

Offline edzieba

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #516 on: 06/10/2024 04:42 pm »
Falcon 9 rideshare availability maybe not so elastic after all?
Quote
“The market is fairly tight right now,” he said. Scout explored the possibility of booking a ride on a SpaceX Transporter smallsat rideshare, but would have had to wait more than a year for an available slot. ABL, on the other hand, has committed to launching the Owlet mission before the end of the year.

Offline TrevorMonty

Falcon 9 rideshare availability maybe not so elastic after all?
Quote
“The market is fairly tight right now,” he said. Scout explored the possibility of booking a ride on a SpaceX Transporter smallsat rideshare, but would have had to wait more than a year for an available slot. ABL, on the other hand, has committed to launching the Owlet mission before the end of the year.
I doubt ABL will fly twice in 2024. Even successful launch could find issues that take months to fix. Electron was grounded for months after its 2nd successful launch while 3rd vehicle was modified.

Electron is fully booked along with Firefly Alpha.



Offline TrevorMonty

Looks like rideshare isn't for everybody. Thought some of these satellites could've used rideshare.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240617700318/en/Rocket-Lab-Signs-Record-Deal-for-10-Electron-Launches-with-Synspective

Online trimeta

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Re: Impact of SpaceX rideshare on small sat launchers market
« Reply #519 on: 06/18/2024 07:36 am »
Looks like rideshare isn't for everybody. Thought some of these satellites could've used rideshare.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240617700318/en/Rocket-Lab-Signs-Record-Deal-for-10-Electron-Launches-with-Synspective

Synspective has only ever flown with Rocket Lab, so it seems like for their constellation needs, rideshare doesn't work.

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