When will be the New glenn debut?

[Tywin]

What do you think?

[Steve G]

I'm guessing Q2 2023, with an expendable US.

[chopsticks]

Who knows. First actual attempt to orbit? It's hard for me to see it happening before 2024 sometime. (1.5 years from now)

[Robert_the_Doll]

There has been hints of progress enough that it might be possible we will see a New Glenn first stage roll out late this year or early next for a Wet Dress Rehearsal.

[DanClemmensen]

Please define "debut" in this context, and please add an "after 2024" option.

For "debut" do you mean a launch to LEO that meets all of its mission objectives?

[Tywin]

Please define "debut" in this context, and please add an "after 2024" option.

For "debut" do you mean a launch to LEO that meets all of its mission objectives?

Yes debut, is first LEO mission...

[high road]

Assuming the first launch is an expendable launch to orbit, I expect Q3 2024 at the earliest. Let's see if Blue can beat my expectations, which are already more rosy than their track record.

[Nemzoj Otikeun]

The first pair of BE-4s for Vulcan have been regular news items for a very long time. I tried looking for evidence of a second pair. All I found was a post about the increase in staff at the factory in late June (the post - not sure when the increase in staff was spotted). BE-4 was not designed as an "easy" engine to build like Raptor. Even Raptor needed a huge tantrum from Elon and lots of real work to get into regular production.

BE-4s are going to be eaten by Vulcans as fast as they are manufactured until production really ramps up. Jeff will have to choose between Vulcan/Kuiper launches and New Glenn. I fully expect to see "Where are my engines, Jeff?" replaced by something like "Now I know how you felt Tory".

Has any evidence of BE-4 production rate escaped from Blue Origin's outstanding curtain of secrecy? I doubt we will see a very public Elon style hissy fit from Jeff but I am not expecting New Glenn to fly until months after Jeff makes a furious secret phone call about a shortage of engines.

[Robert_the_Doll]

The first pair of BE-4s for Vulcan have been regular news items for a very long time. I tried looking for evidence of a second pair. All I found was a post about the increase in staff at the factory in late June (the post - not sure when the increase in staff was spotted). BE-4 was not designed as an "easy" engine to build like Raptor. Even Raptor needed a huge tantrum from Elon and lots of real work to get into regular production.

BE-4s are going to be eaten by Vulcans as fast as they are manufactured until production really ramps up. Jeff will have to choose between Vulcan/Kuiper launches and New Glenn. I fully expect to see "Where are my engines, Jeff?" replaced by something like "Now I know how you felt Tory".

Has any evidence of BE-4 production rate escaped from Blue Origin's outstanding curtain of secrecy? I doubt we will see a very public Elon style hissy fit from Jeff but I am not expecting New Glenn to fly until months after Jeff makes a furious secret phone call about a shortage of engines.

The only real official word of progress that I know of is this article here:
https://www.al.com/news/2022/03/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-rocket-engine-company-expanding-in-alabama.html

"Blue Origin in Huntsville spent the pandemic supporting the company’s main engine plant in Kent Washington with parts for the company’s BE-3 and larger BE-4 engines, Harris said. “We are now actually in the process of building our first set of complete engines through our facility,” he said. Those first engines will be produced this year."

After supporting the Kent factory last year with parts to build the BE-4s we see now, Huntsville is working on the build up of their own full engines.

[Vahe231991]

Assuming the first launch is an expendable launch to orbit, I expect Q3 2024 at the earliest. Let's see if Blue can beat my expectations, which are already more rosy than their track record.

Blue Origin said a few months ago that the New Glenn will fly next year. That prospect largely hinges upon Blue Origin beginning to manufacture production BE-3 engines to be used to power the New Glenn. Alternately, if a spent first or second stage of a Chinese space rocket washed up near the shore of the city where Blue Origin is headquartered, the Blue Origin would reverse-engineer the rocket propulsion system of that rocket stage to create an alternative engine with ultra-high specific impulse that combines the strengths of the BE-3 with the strengths of the BE-4.

[high road]

Assuming the first launch is an expendable launch to orbit, I expect Q3 2024 at the earliest. Let's see if Blue can beat my expectations, which are already more rosy than their track record.

Blue Origin said a few months ago that the New Glenn will fly next year. That prospect largely hinges upon Blue Origin beginning to manufacture production BE-3 engines to be used to power the New Glenn. Alternately, if a spent first or second stage of a Chinese space rocket washed up near the shore of the city where Blue Origin is headquartered, the Blue Origin would reverse-engineer the rocket propulsion system of that rocket stage to create an alternative engine with ultra-high specific impulse that combines the strengths of the BE-3 with the strengths of the BE-4.

Given Blue's track record, if they announce their first flight within a few months, it will be years. See NS' first crewed flight. And their project that looks the most like they're reverse engineering a competitor's technology, has also been taking years by now.

[whitelancer64]

Assuming the first launch is an expendable launch to orbit, I expect Q3 2024 at the earliest. Let's see if Blue can beat my expectations, which are already more rosy than their track record.

Blue Origin said a few months ago that the New Glenn will fly next year. That prospect largely hinges upon Blue Origin beginning to manufacture production BE-3 engines to be used to power the New Glenn. Alternately, if a spent first or second stage of a Chinese space rocket washed up near the shore of the city where Blue Origin is headquartered, the Blue Origin would reverse-engineer the rocket propulsion system of that rocket stage to create an alternative engine with ultra-high specific impulse that combines the strengths of the BE-3 with the strengths of the BE-4.

Given Blue's track record, if they announce their first flight within a few months, it will be years. See NS' first crewed flight. And their project that looks the most like they're reverse engineering a competitor's technology, has also been taking years by now.

It's worth remembering that Blue Origin deliberately DID NOT announce a date for a crewed New Shepard flight for years, because they knew there'd be delays no matter what announcement they made. Of course, they got flak for that tactic, too.

And nobody expected BE-4 to be in development hell for so long.

[high road]

Assuming the first launch is an expendable launch to orbit, I expect Q3 2024 at the earliest. Let's see if Blue can beat my expectations, which are already more rosy than their track record.

Blue Origin said a few months ago that the New Glenn will fly next year. That prospect largely hinges upon Blue Origin beginning to manufacture production BE-3 engines to be used to power the New Glenn. Alternately, if a spent first or second stage of a Chinese space rocket washed up near the shore of the city where Blue Origin is headquartered, the Blue Origin would reverse-engineer the rocket propulsion system of that rocket stage to create an alternative engine with ultra-high specific impulse that combines the strengths of the BE-3 with the strengths of the BE-4.

Given Blue's track record, if they announce their first flight within a few months, it will be years. See NS' first crewed flight. And their project that looks the most like they're reverse engineering a competitor's technology, has also been taking years by now.

It's worth remembering that Blue Origin deliberately DID NOT announce a date for a crewed New Shepard flight for years, because they knew there'd be delays no matter what announcement they made. Of course, they got flak for that tactic, too.

And nobody expected BE-4 to be in development hell for so long.

They did, however, repeatedly mention during each of their launch webcasts, that the first crew launch was only a couple of launches away. For years.

[Tywin]

Something coming...

https://twitter.com/EmreKelly/status/1579496991587176449

[Vahe231991]

The first pair of BE-4s for Vulcan have been regular news items for a very long time. I tried looking for evidence of a second pair. All I found was a post about the increase in staff at the factory in late June (the post - not sure when the increase in staff was spotted). BE-4 was not designed as an "easy" engine to build like Raptor. Even Raptor needed a huge tantrum from Elon and lots of real work to get into regular production.

BE-4s are going to be eaten by Vulcans as fast as they are manufactured until production really ramps up. Jeff will have to choose between Vulcan/Kuiper launches and New Glenn. I fully expect to see "Where are my engines, Jeff?" replaced by something like "Now I know how you felt Tory".

Has any evidence of BE-4 production rate escaped from Blue Origin's outstanding curtain of secrecy? I doubt we will see a very public Elon style hissy fit from Jeff but I am not expecting New Glenn to fly until months after Jeff makes a furious secret phone call about a shortage of engines.

Now that the first flight-rated BE-4s have been mated to the first stage of the Vulcan rocket that will launch the Peregrine lander, maybe there are additional BE-4s in various stages of assembly, of which a few could be attached to the first stage of the first New Glenn rocket.

[trimeta]

The first pair of BE-4s for Vulcan have been regular news items for a very long time. I tried looking for evidence of a second pair. All I found was a post about the increase in staff at the factory in late June (the post - not sure when the increase in staff was spotted). BE-4 was not designed as an "easy" engine to build like Raptor. Even Raptor needed a huge tantrum from Elon and lots of real work to get into regular production.

BE-4s are going to be eaten by Vulcans as fast as they are manufactured until production really ramps up. Jeff will have to choose between Vulcan/Kuiper launches and New Glenn. I fully expect to see "Where are my engines, Jeff?" replaced by something like "Now I know how you felt Tory".

Has any evidence of BE-4 production rate escaped from Blue Origin's outstanding curtain of secrecy? I doubt we will see a very public Elon style hissy fit from Jeff but I am not expecting New Glenn to fly until months after Jeff makes a furious secret phone call about a shortage of engines.

Now that the first flight-rated BE-4s have been mated to the first stage of the Vulcan rocket that will launch the Peregrine lander, maybe there are additional BE-4s in various stages of assembly, of which a few could be attached to the first stage of the first New Glenn rocket.

The Wikipedia lists six planned launches for Vulcan in 2023. Now, I expect that at least a few of those will slip. But it seems like for the next year at least, any BE-4s coming off the assembly line will be going to ULA, to feed Vulcan's cadence.

[AmigaClone]

The first pair of BE-4s for Vulcan have been regular news items for a very long time. I tried looking for evidence of a second pair. All I found was a post about the increase in staff at the factory in late June (the post - not sure when the increase in staff was spotted). BE-4 was not designed as an "easy" engine to build like Raptor. Even Raptor needed a huge tantrum from Elon and lots of real work to get into regular production.

BE-4s are going to be eaten by Vulcans as fast as they are manufactured until production really ramps up. Jeff will have to choose between Vulcan/Kuiper launches and New Glenn. I fully expect to see "Where are my engines, Jeff?" replaced by something like "Now I know how you felt Tory".

Has any evidence of BE-4 production rate escaped from Blue Origin's outstanding curtain of secrecy? I doubt we will see a very public Elon style hissy fit from Jeff but I am not expecting New Glenn to fly until months after Jeff makes a furious secret phone call about a shortage of engines.

Now that the first flight-rated BE-4s have been mated to the first stage of the Vulcan rocket that will launch the Peregrine lander, maybe there are additional BE-4s in various stages of assembly, of which a few could be attached to the first stage of the first New Glenn rocket.

The Wikipedia lists six planned launches for Vulcan in 2023. Now, I expect that at least a few of those will slip. But it seems like for the next year at least, any BE-4s coming off the assembly line will be going to ULA, to feed Vulcan's cadence.

The question might be - how many of those launches will slip due to payload, how many will slip due to lack of engines, and how many slip due to other issues with Vulcan?

Another question - Does the current plan call for the BE-4 engines being produced for Vulcan to be exactly the same as those that will be produced for New Glenn?

I can see two scenarios for New Glenn to launch in 2023.
1) BO produces a lot more BE-4 engines than some are expecting.
2) The answer to the second question is yes, or no, but just minor changes and the reason for the Vulcan launches slipping being because of either payload or issues not related to lack of engines.

[soyuzu]

Oh I had thought the public opinion was already NET 2025 a year ago, and Blue slightly beat our expectation with recent progress. Turns out it’s not.

Tells you about how well-intended and unbiased those forum members bragged about how most people being over optimistic on Starship schedule really were.

Edit: in case someone point out the median was (just) 2024 Q3 that is also required for EscaPADE, I would point out near half of the people vote for date before April 2024. Imagine what the poll would be like had Blue been more active at revealing hardware like ULA or SpaceX.