Space Launch Report Monthly Update

[edkyle99]

Space Launch Report May, 2022 Monthly Update.  Of note:

(1) only four beyond-LEO launches so far this year
(2) 14 of 22 Falcon 9 launches were Starlinks
(3) 3 rockets/families account for 40 of 59 launches
(4) 3 crew missions, including 2 Dragon and 1 Soyuz

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

Space Launch Report Monthly Update.   Of note at mid-year, 2022:

(1) 75 orbital attempts and 72 successes so far this year
(2) 3 rockets/families account for 50 launches
(3) 4 crew missions, including 2 Dragon, 1 Soyuz, 1 Shenzhou
(4) Now up to 8 beyond-LEO missions for year
(5) 16 launches and 15 successes in June, including 1 crewed flight
(6) Ariane 5 finally flies in June, as does Nuri and Electron/Photon

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

Space Launch Report monthly update.  I'm trying something different this month by doing everything as pdf files.  The "slr" file is the main page.  The Atlas, ZK-1A, and Vega(-C) pages are boilerplates for additional vehicle pages that I plan to maybe update occasionally.

There were 16 orbital launches during the month of July, 2022, all successful.  Highlights included the July 24 CZ-5B launch of the second module of the Chinese Space Station, named Wentian.  At 23.05 tonnes, it was the heaviest payload placed in orbit since the Skylab Orbital Workshop in 1973. 

In addition, two new launch vehicles – Europe’s Vega-C and China’s Lijian 1 (ZK-1A) debuted during the month

 - Ed Kyle 

[edkyle99]

Space Launch Report Monthly Update.

There were 18 orbital launch attempts, with one failure, during August 2022. Highlights included five orbital launches on August 4 – a new record, six Falcon 9 launches during the month- including Korea’s KPLO mission to the Moon, China’s second spaceplane launch, SBIRS GEO 6 on Atlas 5, and the failed SSLV inaugural from India.

I'm attaching the Update, new SSLV and Ceres 1 pages, and the latest Falcon 9 page.  Next month maybe SLS and/or Super Heavy/Starship.

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

Space Launch Report September, 2022 Update. 
Adding just *txt files this month due to time constraints.

There were 16 orbital launches during September, 2022,
half of those from China.  China's DF-5 based CZ family
performed four launches, as did SpaceX's Falcon 9. 
China's KZ-1A flew twice to orbit.  Vehicles performing
a single launch included China's CZ-6 and CZ-7A, Europe's
Ariane 5-ECA+, New Zealand's Electron, Russia's Soyuz,
and the U.S. Delta 4 Heavy.  The Soyuz performed the
only crew launch of the month, of Soyuz MS-22 with ISS
crew.  The Delta 4 Heavy was the last West Coast Delta 4,
and the final launch planned from Vandenberg's SLC 6.

A few hours into October 1, Firefly's Alpha made it to
orbit on its second flight.  Though the orbit was a bit
lower than expected, the primary goal of simply making
orbit was achieved.  Alpha is a two-stage, composite
tank, RP-1/LOX rocket designed to put 1 tonne into a
200 km x 28.5 deg orbit.  Though a successful test flight,
I have to log this as a launch vehicle failure.  Payloads
only made it to a 219x279 km x 136.89 deg orbit rather
than the planned 300 km.  All fell out of orbit in less than
two weeks, which was also not planned.

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

There were 23 orbital launch attempts worldwide during October 2022.  One, Epsilon E6, failed to reach orbit. 
Another, Alpha FA002, failed to reach its planned orbit.  Its payloads reentered less than two weeks after launch.

Falcon 9 flew six times, including one Crew Dragon mission, three Starlink flights, and two GTO or near-GTO missions with commercial communication satellites.  Falcon 9 had logged 49 launches during 2022 by month's end.

China's DF-5 based CZ series flew four times, including three CZ-2D and one CZ-2C.  A CZ-11H and a CZ-5B, the
latter carrying another world-beating 23 tonne payload to China's space station, also flew for China.

Russia's R-7 family performed three launches, including one Soyuz 2.1a with a Progress and two Soyuz 2.1b/Fregat missions.  Russia also launched a Soyuz 2.1v/Volga, a rare Proton M/DM-03, and an Angara 1.2AM.

India launched a GSLV Mk3 for OneWeb.  New Zealand's Electron lifted off once.  The USA's Atlas 5 flew to GEO
with SES 20 and 21 on the 531 variant finale.   

By October's end there had been 148 worldwide orbital launch attempts since the start of the year with 142
successes, both bettering last year's all-time records, which were logged during all of 2021. There had been
six crewed launches, still short of 2021's eight.

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

Well *that* was quite a month! 

There were 20 orbital launches worldwide during November 2022, three fewer than
during October.  But the rockets were bigger!

NASA's long-delayed Space Launch System finally debuted with its November 16 launch
of uncrewed Artemis 1 from KSC LC 39B.   2,603 tonne, 98 meter tall SLS-1 rose on
3,992 tonnes (8.8 million pounds) of thrust.  Its two five-segment boosters and
Core Stage performed well, inserting ICPS/Orion into a 30 x 1,800 km x 30.5 deg
initial orbit.  ICPS performed a "Perigee Raise" burn at T+53 min, then restarted
its RL10B-2 at T+1:29:27 for a roughly 18 minute long burn (an RL10 record) to
boost 23.35 tonne Orion into a 516 x 377,200 km x 30.52 deg Moon-bound orbit. 
Artemis 1 fired its EUS engine to enter an elliptical lunar orbit on November 21. 

The month began with a Falcon Heavy launch, the first since 2019, from KSC 39A. 
This 1,420 tonne rocket rose on 2,327 tonnes (5.13 million pounds) of thrust.  It
sent the 3.7 tonne USSF 44 defense satellite directly to geosychronous orbit. 
The core stage was expended.  The boosters returned to Landing Zones 1 and 2 at
Cape Canaveral.     

Falcon 9 flew four times, including one Cargo Dragon mission and three GTO type
missions with commercial communication satellites.  Two of the latter flights
expended their first stages.  Falcon 9 had flown 53 times during 2022 by month's
end, including eight beyond-LEO missions.

ULA's Atlas 5-401 performed its final Vandenberg launch on November 10, when AV098
boosted JPSS 2 to sun synchronous orbit and LOFTID on a reentry test.  Space Launch
Complex 3 East will now be modified to handle Vulcan/Centaur.

The penultimate Antares 230+ (A17) launched 8.12 tonne Cygnus NG-18 toward ISS
from Wallops 0A on November 7.  The upper stage appeared to be misoriented at
ignition.  One of the Cygnus solar panels failed to open when fairing acoustic
blanket material wedged into a moving part, but the orbit was on target and the
spacecraft was able to operate on one solar panel.   

China's DF-5 based CZ series flew four times, including a CZ-2F/G with the crewed
Shenzhou 15 and one each by CZ-3B/E, CZ-4C, and CZ-2D. The latter was CZ-2D's
13th launch during 2022.  CZ-2D currently lists as China's most-reliable orbital
rocket.  CZ-6A, CZ-7 and Ceres-1 also flew once apiece for China during November. 

Russia's Soyuz 2.1b flew three times, twice with Fregat upper stages, all from
Plesetsk with defense payloads.  Plesetsk's 13 launches year to date lead
Baikonur's seven and Vostochny's one.  A single Soyuz also launched from Kourou
before Arianespace halted Russian launches from the site. 

India launched a PSLV-XL with EOS-06 and several microsatellites.  New Zealand's
Electron lifted off once, a flight that saw a second aborted first stage
helicopter recovery attempt.     

By November's end there had been 168 worldwide orbital launches and 162
successes, both records.  Seven crewed launches had taken place.  Two uncrewed
flights by crew-capable spacecraft had also occurred.  Thirteen launches, crewed
and uncrewed, had been made to ISS.  China's space station had seen six launches.

2022 Launch Total by Country of Upper Stage Manufacture
ranked by number of year-to-date orbital successes.
As of 30 November 2022.
==========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
========================================================== 
United States        71(3)       56(3)  15(0)    -
China                55(1)       51(1)   4(0)    -
Russia               22(0)       15(0)   7(0)    -  
New Zealand           9(0)        8(0)   1(0)    -    
India                 5(1)        5(1)    -      - 
Europe                3(0)         -     3(0)    -
Iran                  1(0)        1(0)    -      -
South Korea           1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Japan                 1(1)        1(1)    -      -
==========================================================
(See attached files for many more details.)

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

2022 Summary 

The 2022 headline was the record year for worldwide orbital launches and
successes, by far.  186 attempts with 178 successes.  Falcon 9's 60 launches
is a record for U.S. launch vehicles, bettered I believe only just by the USSR's
R-7 during the height of the Cold War.  The U.S. totals (78 launches, 75 successes)
were a record for the U.S., thanks mostly to Falcon 9.  Meanwhile, China with
64 launches and 62 successes also bettered its own record.  Both still fall short
of the USSR's 101 successes in 1982.

SLS, of course, was big news at year's end.  It launched the second unmanned crew
capsule of the year, an Atlas 5 N22 having launched the first (a Starliner) earlier
 this year.

Iran and South Korea both had successful orbital launches during 2022.   At the
other end of the spectrum was Japan, which failed to reach orbit this year for
the first time since 2004, its previously flawless Epsilon failing on the
country's only attempt.

Epsilon was one of eight orbital launch vehicle failures.  China's ZQ-2, the first
LOX/Methane rocket to attempt orbital flight, was another.  Failure also touched
Europe's second Vega-C, India's first SSLV, China's SQX-1, and, on two out of its
three flights during the year, Astra Rocket 3.3.  The latter was shelved by Astra
after its final failure, which was the fifth in seven launches by the Rocket 3.x
series.  Meanwhile, Firefly's second Alpha made it to orbit, but the orbit was
unstable, lower than planned, and its payloads soon reentered. ZQ-2, able to lift
4 tonnes to sun synchronous orbit (SSO), was the most capable of this failed bunch. 
Vega-C was next at 2.2 tonnes.  All of the others were less than 1 tonne to SSO
class. 

The horrible Russo-Ukrainian war affected space flight.  The West finally 
severed its use of Russian launch vehicles from Kourou, Kazakhstan, and
Russia.  Northrop Grumman's supply of Ukrainian-built, Russian-powered Antares
first stages was cut off, with only one flight set remaining on U.S. soil at
year's end.  The company announced plans for a Firefly-developed first stage
replacement.  Interestingly, Firefly was largely Ukrainian-owned prior to the
start of the war. 

A quiet fact was that two rocket families continued remarkable Space Age strings
 during 2022.  R-7 reached 1,960 or so launches, having flown every year since
1957 inclusive.  Less well known is the U.S. Minuteman family, which has flown
something like 915 times (including Minotaurs 1&2), second now only to R-7 (though
only 12 times to orbit), with launches during every year since 1959 inclusive. 
This year Minuteman 3 performed two operational tests while Minotaur 2+ suffered
a failure, the latter while attempting a test for the new Sentinel ICBM meant to
replace Minuteman.  When Sentinel comes on line, the Minuteman string will
finally end.

More later.

 - Ed Kyle

========================================================
        WORLDWIDE ORBITAL LAUNCH BOX SCORE             
                as of 12/31/22                         
                                                     
       All Orbital Launch    Crewed Launch             
       Attempts(Failures)  Attempts(Failures)         
-------------------------------------------------------
      2022:   186(8)                7(0)              
      2021:   144(11)               8(0)              
      2020:   114(10)               4(0)              
      2019:   102(5)                3(0)              
========================================================


========================================================
             SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

       2022 LAUNCH VEHICLE STANDINGS
========================================================
       by Ed Kyle      as of December 31, 2022
========================================================

    YEAR TO DATE ORBITAL LAUNCH VEHICLE SUMMARY

Calendar year launch vehicle results, ranked by number 
of successes, with launch total as the first tiebreaker 
and vehicle payload mass as the second tiebreaker.  
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions have orbital periods 
less than 2 hours. Deep Space missions include 
heliocentric, planetocentric, and solar system escape 
trajectories.

=========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
=========================================================
Falcon 9 v1.2        60(0)      50(0)   10(0)    -  
CZ (DF-5)            39(0)      35(0)    4(0)    -  
R7                   17(0)      11(0)    6(0)    -    
Electron              9(0)       8(0)    1(0)    -  
Atlas 5               7(0)       2(0)    5(0)    -
KZ-1A                 4(0)       4(0)     -      - 
CZ-11(H)              4(0)       4(0)     -      -
Ariane 5 ECA+         3(0)        -      3(0)    -
CZ-7(A)               3(0)       2(0)    1(0)    -
PSLV                  3(0)       3(0)     -      -
CZ-5B                 2(0)       2(0)     -      -
Antares 230+          2(0)       2(0)     -      -
Soyuz 2-1v/Volga      2(0)       2(0)     -      -
CZ-6A                 2(0)       2(0)     -      - 
CZ-6                  2(0)       2(0)     -      -
Angara 1.2            2(0)       2(0)     -      -
LauncherOne           2(0)       2(0)     -      -
Ceres-1               2(0)       2(0)     -      - 
Astra Rocket 3.3      3(2)       3(2)     -      -
Vega-C                2(1)       1(1)    1(0)    -
SLS                   1(0)        -      1(0)    -
Delta 4 Heavy         1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Falcon Heavy          1(0)        -      1(0)    -
Proton M/DM-03        1(0)        -      1(0)    -
GSLV Mk3              1(0)       1(0)     -      -
CZ-8                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
KZ-11                 1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Jielong 3             1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Lijian 1 (ZK-1A)      1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Qased                 1(0)       1(0)     -      -
KSLV-2 (Nuri)         1(0)       1(0)     -      -
ZQ-2                  1(1)       1(1)     -      -
Alpha                 1(1)       1(1)     -      -
Epsilon               1(1)       1(1)     -      -
SSLV                  1(1)       1(1)     -      -   
SQX-1                 1(1)       1(1)     -      -
---------------------------------------------------------
Total               186(8)     152(8)   34(0)    -  

[edkyle99]

Space Launch Report as of February 3, 2023.  U.S. leads in
launches - and failures.  Japan  reaches orbit for first time
since 2021.

========================================================
       by Ed Kyle      as of February 02, 2023
========================================================

    YEAR TO DATE ORBITAL LAUNCH VEHICLE SUMMARY

Calendar year launch vehicle results, ranked by number 
of successes, with launch total as the first tiebreaker 
and vehicle payload mass as the second tiebreaker.  
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions have orbital periods 
less than 2 hours. Deep Space missions include 
heliocentric, planetocentric, and solar system escape 
trajectories.

=========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
=========================================================   
Falcon 9 v1.2         7(0)       6(0)    1(0)    - 
CZ (DF-5)             3(0)       3(0)     -      -
Falcon Heavy          1(0)        -      1(0)    - 
CZ-7(A)               1(0)        -      1(0)    -
H-2A                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Ceres-1               1(0)       1(0)     -      -
LauncherOne           1(1)       1(1)     -      -
RS-1                  1(1)       1(1)     -      -   
Electron              1(0)       1(0)     -      - 
R7                     -          -       -      -   
Atlas 5                -          -       -      -  
KZ-1A                  -          -       -      -    
CZ-11(H)               -          -       -      -   
Ariane 5 ECA+          -          -       -      -   
PSLV                   -          -       -      -  
---------------------------------------------------------
Total                17(2)      14(2)    3(0)    -  

================================================================
                    SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

        ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
================================================================
           by Ed Kyle      as of February 02, 2023     
================================================================
Top active space launch vehicles ranked by Lewis point estimate 
of their orbital success rate*.  Failures include incorrect 
orbits.
================================================================ 
                           Lewis 
                Successes  Point AdjWald   Consc. Last    Dates 
Vehicle         /Attempts  Est*  95%CI*    Succes Fail    
================================================================
Falcon 9 v1.2    180/180(D)0.99  0.97-1.00 180   None     2015-
Atlas 5           96/97    0.98  0.94-1.00  86   06/15/07 2002-
CZ-2D             73/74    0.97  0.92-1.00  41   12/28/16 1992-
Ariane 5-ECA(+)   80/82    0.96  0.91-1.00  17   01/25/18 2002-
CZ-4(A/B/C)       93/96    0.96  0.91-0.99  35   05/22/19 1988-
CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM/YZ)68/70    0.96  0.90-1.00  34   08/18/11 1974-
H-2A              45/46    0.96  0.88-1.00  40   11/29/03 2001-
CZ-3B/3C         101/105   0.95  0.90-0.99  21   04/09/20 1996-
CZ-2F(T/Y/G)      19/19    0.95  0.80-1.00  19   None     1999-
Soyuz 2-1a        33/34#   0.94  0.84-1.00  27   04/28/15 2004-
Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 63/66    0.94  0.87-0.99  36   11/28/17 2006-
CZ-11(H)          15/15    0.94  0.76-1.00  15   None     2015-
Soyuz 2-1b        14/14    0.94  0.75-1.00  14   None     2008-
Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 28/29#   0.94  0.81-1.00  26   05/21/09 2006-
Antares 2xx       12/12    0.93  0.72-1.00  12   None     2016-
Minotaur 1        12/12    0.93  0.72-1.00  12   None     2000-
PSLV              53/56    0.93  0.85-0.99  15   08/31/17 1993-
CZ-6              10/10    0.92  0.68-1.00  10   None     2015-
CZ-3/3A           37/40    0.90  0.79-0.98  27   08/18/96 1984-
Proton-M/Briz-M   90/100   0.89  0.82-0.94   0   12/13/21 2001-
Pegasus (H/XL)    40/45    0.89  0.76-0.96  31   11/04/96 1991-
Electron          30/33    0.89  0.76-0.98  13   05/15/21 2017-
Delta 4 Heavy     13/14    0.88  0.66-1.00  13   12/21/04 2004-
Minotaur 4/5       6/6++   0.88  0.56-1.00   6   None     2010-
CZ-7               6/6     0.88  0.56-1.00   6   None     2016-
Kuaizhou 1(A)     18/20    0.86  0.69-0.98   4   12/15/21 2013-
Falcon Heavy       5/5     0.86  0.51-1.00   5   None     2018-
Ceres-1            5/5     0.86  0.51-1.00   5   None     2020-
Soyuz 2-1v/Volga   6/7     0.86  0.47-0.99   5   12/05/15 2013-
GSLV Mk3           4/4z    0.83  0.45-1.00   4   None     2017-
CZ-5B              4/4     0.83  0.45-1.00   4   None     2020-
Epsilon            5/6     0.83  0.42-0.99   0   10/12/22 2013-
CZ-5               4/5     0.80  0.36-0.98   3   07/02/17 2016-
CZ-7A              4/5     0.80  0.36-0.98   4   03/16/20 2020-
Shavit(-1,-2)      9/12    0.75  0.46-0.92   5   9/6/04   1988-
GSLV Mk2           6/8     0.75  0.40-0.94   0   08/12/21 2010-
Soyuz 2-1v         2/2     0.75  0.29-1.00   2   None     2018-
Angara 5/Briz-M    2/2     0.75  0.29-1.00   2   None     2014-
CZ-6A              2/2     0.75  0.29-1.00   2   None     2022-
CZ-8               2/2     0.75  0.29-1.00   2   None     2020-
Qased              2/2     0.75  0.29-1.00   2   None     2020-
Angara 1.2         2/2     0.75  0.29-1.00   2   None     2022-
Taurus (XL)        7/10    0.70  0.39-0.90   1   3/4/11   1994-
Proton-M/DM-03     4/6     0.67  0.30-0.91   4   07/02/13 2010-
LauncherOne        4/6     0.67  0.30-0.91   0   01/09/23 2020-
SLS                1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   11/16/22 2022-
Proton M           1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   07/21/21 2021-
Soyuz 2-1a/Volga   1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2016-
KT-2               1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2017-
Jielong-1          1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2019-
Lijian 1 (ZK-1A)   1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2022-
Jielong 3          1/1     0.67  0.17-1.00   1   None     2022-
Safir              5/9(C)  0.56  0.27-0.81   0   02/05/19 2008-
Vega-C             1/2     0.50  0.09-1.91   0   12/21/22 2022-
KZ-11              1/2     0.50  0.09-0.91   1   07/10/20 2020-  
SS-520             1/2     0.50  0.09-0.91   1   01/14/17 2017-
KSLV-2 (Nuri)      1/2     0.50  0.09-0.91   1   10/21/21 2021-
Unha (TD-2)        2/5%    0.44  0.12-0.77   2   04/12/12 2006-
SSLV               0/1     0.40  0.00-0.83   0   08/07/22 2022-
Angara 5/Persei    0/1     0.40  0.00-0.83   0   12/27/21 2021-
ZQ-1               0/1     0.40  0.00-0.83   0   10/27/18 2018-
ZQ-2               0/1     0.40  0.00-0.83   0   12/14/22 2022-
OS-M               0/1     0.40  0.00-0.83   0   03/27/19 2019-
RS-1               0/1     0.40  0.00-0.83   0   01/10/23 2023-
SQX-1              1/4     0.37  0.03-0.71   0   05/13/22 2019-
Alpha              0/2     0.33  0.00-0.71   0   10/01/22 2021- 
Simorgh            0/4(E)  0.28  0.00-0.62   0   12/31/21 2017-
================================================================
* Lewis Point Estimate Determined as Follows.
  
  Maximum Liklihood Estimate (MLE)= x/n 
      where x=success, n=tries
  For MLE<=0.5, use Wilson Method = (x+2)/(n+4)
  For MLE Between 0.5 and 0.9, use MLE = x/n
  For MLE>=0.9, use Laplace Method = (x+1)/(n+2)
 
  Lewis, J. & Lauro, J., "Improving the Accuracy of Small-Sample 
   Estimates of Completion Rates", Journal of Usability Studies, 
   Issue 3, Vol. 1, May 2006, pp. 136-150.

* Adjusted-Wald 95% Confidence Interval Range Determined 
     as Follows.

     Pw = (x+1.9208)/(n+3.8416)

     CI = Pw +/- 1.96*sqrt[(Pw*(1-Pw))/(n+3.8416)]  
          (maximum range 1.00)
    
# Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test 
   flight performed in 2004.

++Does not include two successful suborbital Minotaur 4 Lite 
   flights in 2010-11.

x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that 
   resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying 
   launch vehicle on 9-26-1983.  Note that 10 additional 
   Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all 
   successful) are cataloged separately.

xx Does not include successful 2-11-15 suborbital flight with 
    IXV reentry demonstrator.

% Includes 2006 failure thought to be a two-stage suborbital 
   test launch attempt.

z Does not include successful inaugural suborbital test flight 
    on 12-18-14.

(C) Assumes that two unsuccessful, unreported Safir launch 
     attempts occurred during 2012 and one during 2019.
     Does not count 2019 prelaunch propellant loading explosion. 
 
(D) Does not include 09/01/16 explosion that destroyed F9-29 
     and AMOS 6 payload during propellant loading for prelaunch 
     hot fire test at CC 40 two days before planned launch.      
(D) Does not include successful 01/19/20 suborbital IFA Crew 
     Dragon launch by F9-80.  

(E) Assumes 7/27/17 launch was a failed orbital attempt and 
     that 4/19/16 launch was a suborbital test flight. 

Launch Total by Country of First or Core Stage Manufacture
ranked by number of year-to-date orbital successes.
=========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
=========================================================  
United States        10(2)       8(2)    2(0)    -  
China                 5(0)       4(0)    1(0)    -
Japan                 1(0)       1(0)     -      - 
New Zealand           1(0)       1(0)     -      - 
Russia                 -          -       -      -    
India                  -          -       -      -    
Europe                 -          -       -      -  
Ukraine                -          -       -      -   
Iran                   -          -       -      - 
South Korea            -          -       -      -
=========================================================
 

 - Ed Kyle

[Vahe231991]

(trimmed quote - gongora)

A few corrections should be made to the launch statistics list:
- The supposed late 2012 Iranian space launch failure you list among launches of the Safir SLV in this list is regarded by Norbert Brugge as a failed launch of the Kavoshgar suborbital vehicle because the rocket transporter seen in satellite imagery taken of the Semnan launch site in late 2012 is too small to accommodate the Safir.
- The rocket type you call "Unha (TD-2)" should be called Paektusan-2 because Daniel Pinkston notes in the 2008 monograph The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program that a June 2006 issue of the pro-DPRK newspaper Choson Sinbo cited official North Korean sources as saying that Paektusan-2 is the official name for the North Korean SLV known by US intelligence as the Taepodong-2 that had its unsuccessful first launch in July 2006 (which you consider most likely a suborbital test) and had its first successful orbital launch in 2012, and the Paektusan-2 used in the February 2016 launch had the name Kwangmyongsong rather than Unha emblazoned on the first stage, unlike the 2012 Paektusan-2 launches.

[edkyle99]

(trimmed quote - gongora)

A few corrections should be made to the launch statistics list:
- The supposed late 2012 Iranian space launch failure you list among launches of the Safir SLV in this list is regarded by Norbert Brugge as a failed launch of the Kavoshgar suborbital vehicle because the rocket transporter seen in satellite imagery taken of the Semnan launch site in late 2012 is too small to accommodate the Safir.
- The rocket type you call "Unha (TD-2)" should be called Paektusan-2 because Daniel Pinkston notes in the 2008 monograph The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program that a June 2006 issue of the pro-DPRK newspaper Choson Sinbo cited official North Korean sources as saying that Paektusan-2 is the official name for the North Korean SLV known by US intelligence as the Taepodong-1 that had its unsuccessful first launch in July 2006 (which you consider most likely a suborbital test) and had its first successful orbital launch in 2012, and the Paektusan-2 used in the February 2016 launch had the name Kwangmyongsong rather than Unha emblazoned on the first stage, unlike the 2012 Paektusan-2 launches.

Space Command, Jonathan McDowell, etc. all identified these Kwangmyongsong launchers as "Unha" (Unha 1, 2, 3, etc.) except for some disagreement about the last one because it had the satellite name on its side.  Whatever it was called, it was essentially the same rocket as Unha-3 by appearances and performance.  I've lumped these five together because they all used the same diameter first stage, etc.  I should perhaps remove this one from the active launch vehicle list altogether since it hasn't flown in seven years.

The Safir launch facts are uncertain, because Iran to date has not been fully forthcoming about those facts.  All I can do is note that uncertainty.

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

Since my last update at the end of January the launch rate has been hectic, with
36 orbital launch attempts worldwide and 34 successes during February-March. 

SpaceX Falcon 9 accounted for 14 of those launches, including 8 for the company's
own Starlink.  Two Falcon 9's boosted Dragons to ISS, one with crew. 

China's DF-5 based CZ flew 7 times as the country continued to seemingly build
an ability to watch everything everywhere all the time.  One CZ-11 and one KZ-1A
also launched from China.

Russia's R-7 performed three launches, all Soyuz 1.a variants.  Two carried ISS
payloads.  One was a Progress cargo ship.  The other was unusual - an uncrewed
Soyuz MS-23 crew-capable spacecraft.  It was sent to ISS to take the place of
Soyuz MS-22, which had suffered a coolant leak.  Russia also launched a single
Soyuz 2.1v carrying a mysterious spy craft into low Earth orbit.  Finally, Russia's
Proton made two increasingly rare appearances.  One with a DM-03 upper stage
carried a weather satellite.  The other with a Briz M upper stage boosted a
milcomsat/spysat.  Both went to GEO.

India scored two succcesses, one by its new SSLV smallsat launcher and one by the
country's largest, "LVM3" (also identified as GSLV Mk3) rocket.  The latter carried
36 OneWeb satellites to LEO.

Electron flew twice, once from Wallops 0C and one from Mahia 1B. 

Israel's Shavit-2 - another rarity - sent Ofeq 13, a radarsat, into a retrograde
LEO in late March.

Japan's new H-3 rocket suffered an inaugural failure on March 7.  The launcher's
new first stage propulsion and upgraded SRMs functioned well, but the second
stage, which was substantially based on previously flown H-2A/B systems, failed
to start.  An electrical or electronic failure was blamed. 

Relativity Space's new CH4/LOX Terran 1 rocket also failed during its debut on
March 23 from Cape Canaveral SLC 16.  Like H-3 1F, Terran 1's first stage flew
cleanly, but the second stage failed to ignite. It was the first methane-fueled
orbital attempt from the United States and the second worldwide after China's
ZQ-2, which also failed.
     
Big news at the end of March was the shuttering of Virgin Orbit, which ran out of
funding and laid off most staff.  The company's innovative LauncherOne rocket,
drop launched from a 747, had achieved four orbital successes in six attempts
during 2020-23, but a failure during its sixth launch from Cornwall on
January 9, 2023, combined with a slim launch backlog and rising debt costs, seems
to have done them in.

Despite high launch counts during the year's first quarter, Arianespace and
United Launch Alliance recorded no liftoffs.  The latter company rolled out its
first Vulcan rocket at SLC 41 during March for propellant loading tests, including
the big new Centaur 5 upper stage for the first time.  A static firing is expected
in coming weeks.  Meanwhile, rumors of a possible sale of the company by one or
both owners of ULA swirled.

========================================================
        WORLDWIDE ORBITAL LAUNCH BOX SCORE             
                as of 03/31/23                         
                                                     
       All Orbital Launch    Crewed Launch             
       Attempts(Failures)  Attempts(Failures)         
-------------------------------------------------------
      2023:    52(4)                1(0)
      2022:   186(8)                7(0)              
      2021:   144(11)               8(0)              
      2020:   114(10)               4(0)              
      2019:   102(5)                3(0)              
========================================================

 - Ed Kyle

[Robotbeat]

Thanks, Ed, for continuing your work. I loved your website and still regularly refer to it (via Archive.org). If you ever want to continue it again, I’d gladly donate some.

[SamiKrayem]

Hello Ed Kyle and thank you very much for your work,

I read this article: https://uxpajournal.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/pdf/JUS_Lewis_May2006.pdf about why you chose
** Lewis Point Estimate Determined as Follows**
 
  Maximum Liklihood Estimate (MLE)= x/n
      where x=success, n=tries
  For MLE<=0.5, use Wilson Method = (x+2)/(n+4)
  For MLE Between 0.5 and 0.9, use MLE = x/n
  For MLE>=0.9, use Laplace Method = (x+1)/(n+2)

In the article, the authors made 3 assumptions for the distribution of p, and for ** Lewis Point Estimate Determined as Follows** that you chose, it comes from the assumption that the probability of success is equally distributed between 0.5 and 1.

As a reminder from the article, it's obvious that the exact probability of success for a Launch vehicle is not known so what we can do is an assumption about the range where the exact probability is.

I understand why you didn't choose the first distribution of p, because as they said in the article it doesn't represent the reality because when you have a fail, you don't reattempt a launch without knowing the cause as when you throw a die or a coin.

In our case, could it be more meaningful to go with the third distribution for p where p is distributed empirically? and the different values for p could be the different MLE (success/trials) worldwide. And after that, we do the same process as in the article where we can even change the number n for the sample to be closer to our case in space with the launch vehicle. For example, we could take n = 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 due to the fact that nowadays, LVs could have a big record.

I don't know if I was clear enough and if I succeed to explain my point. Thanks for your time!

[edkyle99]

========================================================
========================================================
           SPACE LAUNCH REPORT UPDATE

                April 30, 2023

                  by Ed Kyle
========================================================

April saw 11 orbital launches, more than half (six) by
SpaceX's Falcon 9.  Two of those were for the company's
own Starlink service.  Two others went beyond LEO with
communications satellites. 

Europe joined in with its first launch, of an
Ariane 5 ECA+ with Jupiter-bound JUICE, the first launch
directly to a solar orbit by anyone since 2021.  The
launch succeeded but JUICE was having problems deploying
its radar panel at month's end.

China hosted three launches.  The inaugural TianLong 2
flight was notable.  It is a new, 3-stage, 3.35 meter
diameter kerosene/LOX rocket designed to lift 2 tonnes
to LEO or 1.5 tonnes to SSO.  It uses three YF-102 CASC
engines to make 190 tonnes of liftoff thrust.  The second
stage is, remarkably, powered by a TH-11 staged combustion
engine that produces 30.6 tonnes thrust.  A 300 kgf 
thrust TH-31 engine boosts the third, kick stage.  All
was supposedly developed by a private company in China,
though state entities appear to have been involved.

Successful SQX-1.2 and CZ-4B launches rounded out China's
month.

A Core-Alone PSLV flew successfully for India on its C55
mission.  It place 741 kg TeLEOS 2 and several CubeSats
into 585 km x 10 deg orbits. 

SpaceX's Super Heavy/Starship failed during its inaugural,
suborbital test flight attempt on April 20 from Boca Chica.
Booster 7 and Ship 24 performed the test.  The ~5000+ tonne
rocket's ~5,900 tonnes of thrust (from the 30 of 33
Raptor-2 engines that continued to run at launch) dug a
crater in the Texas soil beneath the launch mount.  Debris
may have damaged the rocket.  More engines failed as the
rocket rose.  One image showed eight not running.  Small
explosions and eruptions of debris falling from the first
stage were visible.  Flight control was lost sometime after
the 1 minute mark.  The stack veered south and tumbled,
reaching 39 km altitude.  Range safety systems finally
ended the flight with two big explosions.  It was by far
the heaviest rocket ever to fly, though unsuccessfully. 
Saturn 5 retains the mark for successful flight at
2,965 tonnes.
========================================================

========================================================
             SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

       2022 LAUNCH VEHICLE STANDINGS
========================================================
       by Ed Kyle      as of April 28, 2023
========================================================

    YEAR TO DATE ORBITAL LAUNCH VEHICLE SUMMARY

Calendar year launch vehicle results, ranked by number
of successes, with launch total as the first tiebreaker
and vehicle payload mass as the second tiebreaker. 
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions have orbital periods
less than 2 hours. Deep Space missions include
heliocentric, planetocentric, and solar system escape
trajectories.

=========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
=========================================================   
Falcon 9 v1.2        26(0)      21(0)    5(0)    - 
CZ (DF-5)            11(0)       9(0)    2(0)    -
R7                    3(0)       3(0)     -      -   
Electron              3(0)       3(0)     -      -
Ariane 5              1(0)        -       -     1(0)
Falcon Heavy          1(0)        -      1(0)    -
Proton M/Briz M       1(0)        -      1(0)    -
Proton M/DM-03        1(0)        -      1(0)    -  
CZ-7(A)               1(0)        -      1(0)    -
H-2A                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
LVM3                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
PSLV                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Soyuz 2-1v            1(0)       1(0)     -      -
CZ-11                 1(0)       1(0)     -      -
TL-2                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Ceres-1               1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Shavit-2              1(0)       1(0)     -      -
SSLV                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
KZ-1A                 1(0)       1(0)     -      -
SQX-1                 1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Terran 1              1(1)       1(1)     -      -    
LauncherOne           1(1)       1(1)     -      -
RS-1                  1(1)       1(1)     -      -
H-3                   1(1)       1(1)     -      -
---------------------------------------------------------
Total                63(4)      51(4)   11(0)   1(0) 

[JH]

Thank you, Ed! I must admit that I still sometimes reflexively start typing in the url for your old website.

[Vahe231991]

(trimmed quote - gongora)

A few corrections should be made to the launch statistics list:
- The supposed late 2012 Iranian space launch failure you list among launches of the Safir SLV in this list is regarded by Norbert Brugge as a failed launch of the Kavoshgar suborbital vehicle because the rocket transporter seen in satellite imagery taken of the Semnan launch site in late 2012 is too small to accommodate the Safir.
- The rocket type you call "Unha (TD-2)" should be called Paektusan-2 because Daniel Pinkston notes in the 2008 monograph The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program that a June 2006 issue of the pro-DPRK newspaper Choson Sinbo cited official North Korean sources as saying that Paektusan-2 is the official name for the North Korean SLV known by US intelligence as the Taepodong-1 that had its unsuccessful first launch in July 2006 (which you consider most likely a suborbital test) and had its first successful orbital launch in 2012, and the Paektusan-2 used in the February 2016 launch had the name Kwangmyongsong rather than Unha emblazoned on the first stage, unlike the 2012 Paektusan-2 launches.

Space Command, Jonathan McDowell, etc. all identified these Kwangmyongsong launchers as "Unha" (Unha 1, 2, 3, etc.) except for some disagreement about the last one because it had the satellite name on its side.  Whatever it was called, it was essentially the same rocket as Unha-3 by appearances and performance.  I've lumped these five together because they all used the same diameter first stage, etc.  I should perhaps remove this one from the active launch vehicle list altogether since it hasn't flown in seven years.

The Safir launch facts are uncertain, because Iran to date has not been fully forthcoming about those facts.  All I can do is note that uncertainty.

 - Ed Kyle

The Paektusan-1 used in the first DPRK orbital launch in 1998 had a narrower first stage diameter and was a few feet shorter than the SLV used in launches of the Kwangmyongsong-2, 3, and 4 launches, although the Paektusan-1 used to launch the Kwangmyongsong-1 satellite as well as the Paektusan-2 launched in April 2009 had their first stages emblazoned with the Korean characters for "Chosun" (조선) and the April 2009 launch was referred to as Unha-2 by the Korean Central News Agency. With North Korea making preparations to launch its first reconnaissance satellite next month, we'll see if that upcoming launch will be carried out by the SLV used in satellite launches in 2009, 2012, and 2016.

[edkyle99]

========================================================
           SPACE LAUNCH REPORT UPDATE

                May 31, 2023

                  by Ed Kyle
========================================================
May saw 20 orbital launch attempts worldwide, including 
two that carried crew, one to each of the world's two 
big space stations.  One launch, by North Korea's 
inaugural Chollima 1, failed.  

Falcon 9 led with eight launches, including five for 
Starlink, one with the crew carrying AX2 Dragon, one 
with OneWeb and Iridium satellites, and a single launch 
beyond LEO (to supersynchronous transfer orbit) with 
the BADR 8 satellite.

China's DF-5 based CZ series flew three times, one with 
crew to China's Space Station.  A CZ-3B/E boosted 
Beidou 3-G4 to GTO for the country's only beyond-LEO 
flight during the month.

Russia's R-7 performed two launches, one using a Fregat 
upper stage from Vostochny.  

Electron flew twice from New Zealand, both times 
carrying NASA TROPICS CubeSats into low Earth orbits 
inclined 30 degrees to the equator. Astra's defunct 
Rocket 3.3 was originally to have performed these 
launches from Cape Canaveral. 

Falcon Heavy, CZ-7, South Korea's Nuri, India's 
GSLV Mk2, and North Korea's Chollima 1 accounted for one 
launch each to round out the total.  The Falcon Heavy 
placed ViaSAt 3 and some CubeSats into GEO, totaling 
6.74 tonnes of payload.  The GSLV Mk2, returning for the 
first time since a 2021 launch failure, boosted NVS 01 
to GTO - the month's fourth beyond-LEO launch.
========================================================
        WORLDWIDE ORBITAL LAUNCH BOX SCORE             
                as of 05/31/23                         
                                                     
       All Orbital Launch    Crewed Launch             
       Attempts(Failures)  Attempts(Failures)         
-------------------------------------------------------
      2023:    83(5)                3(0)
      2022:   186(8)                7(0)              
      2021:   144(11)               8(0)              
      2020:   114(10)               4(0)              
      2019:   102(5)                3(0)              
========================================================

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

During June 2023, 13 orbital launches took place
worldwide.  Falcon 9 flew 7 times, including 4 for
Starlink and one with the CRS-28 Cargo Dragon mission
to ISS. 

Six other launch vehicles flew once each, including
the penultimate Delta 4 Heavy, launched from Cape
Canaveral with the secret NROL 68, probably Orion 11,
satellite.   China's Lijian 1, KZ-1A, CZ-2D, and CZ-6
and Russia's Soyuz 2.1b/Fregat rounded out the total. 

Mid-year launch totals included 91 successes in 96
attempts.  Falcon 9 accounted for 41 successes with no
failures.  China's DF-5 based CZ family had logged 15
successes and no failures.  No other rocket had reached
double figures.  Twenty two vehicles had only flown once.

========================================================
             SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

       2023 LAUNCH VEHICLE STANDINGS
========================================================
       by Ed Kyle      as of July 06, 2023
========================================================

    YEAR TO DATE ORBITAL LAUNCH VEHICLE SUMMARY

Calendar year launch vehicle results, ranked by number
of successes, with launch total as the first tiebreaker
and vehicle payload mass as the second tiebreaker. 
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions have orbital periods
less than 2 hours. Deep Space missions include
heliocentric, planetocentric, and solar system escape
trajectories.

=========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
=========================================================   
Falcon 9 v1.2        42(0)      34(0)    8(0)    - 
CZ (DF-5)            15(0)      12(0)    3(0)    -
R7                    6(0)       6(0)     -      -   
Electron              5(0)       5(0)     -      -
Ariane 5              2(0)        -      1(0)   1(0)
Falcon Heavy          2(0)        -      2(0)    -
CZ-7(A)               2(0)       1(0)    1(0)    -
KZ-1A                 2(0)       2(0)     -      -
Delta 4 Heavy         1(0)        -      1(0)    -
Proton M/Briz M       1(0)        -      1(0)    -
Proton M/DM-03        1(0)        -      1(0)    -  
H-2A                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
LVM3                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
GSLV Mk2              1(0)        -      1(0)    -
PSLV                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Soyuz 2-1v            1(0)       1(0)     -      -
CZ-6                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
CZ-11                 1(0)       1(0)     -      -
TL-2                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Ceres-1               1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Shavit-2              1(0)       1(0)     -      -
SSLV                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Lijian-1              1(0)       1(0)     -      -
SQX-1                 1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Nuri                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Terran 1              1(1)       1(1)     -      -    
LauncherOne           1(1)       1(1)     -      -
RS-1                  1(1)       1(1)     -      -
H-3                   1(1)       1(1)     -      -
Chollimia 1           1(1)       1(1)     -      -
---------------------------------------------------------
Total                98(5)      78(5)   19(0)   1(0) 

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

There were 18 orbital launches during July, 2023, all
successful.  Falcon 9 flew 7 times, DF-5 based CZ flew
three times.  Eight other vehicles flew one time each.

Highlights included the final Ariane 5, an ECA+ variant
on the VA261 mission that placed 3.572 tonne Syracuse 4B
and 3.408 tonne Heinrich Hertz into GTO.  It was
the 117th Ariane 5 (112th success) and 84th Ariane 5 ECA
(82nd success).  Arianespace now faces a launch gap
while awaiting Ariane 6 readiness.   

India's LVM3 (M4) launched Chandrayaan 3 into a
170 x 36500 km x 21.3 deg orbit, from which the 3.9 tonne
spacecraft will gradually raise itself toward the Moon,
aiming for a lunar landing. It is India's second landing
attempt.

China's ZQ-2 achieved the first successful orbital
launch by an LCH4/LOX rocket.  It carried a dummysat
into sun synchronous orbit from Jiuquan Satellite Launch
Center.

The month began with a Falcon 9 launch of Europe's
Euclid space telescope from Cape Canaveral.  Falcon 9's
second stage fired twice to place the 2.16 tonne
spacecraft into a 200 x 1,500,000 km orbit.  Euclid
will boost itself to a Sun/Earth L2 halo orbit.  The
launch was originally slated for an Arianespace
Soyuz/Fregat that was shelved after Russia invaded
Ukraine.   

SpaceX ended the month with launch of its seventh
Falcon Heavy, which carried the 9.2 tonne Jupiter 3
comsat into a 8,000 x 35,504 km x 10.39 deg GTO.  The
core was expended while the side boosters returned to
Cape landings.  This was said to have been the
heaviest single commercial comsat yet launched.  It was
also Falcon Heavy's heaviest payload to date.

Rocket Lab's Electron boosted multiple Cubesats into
sun synchronous orbit from Mahia on July 18.  The Curie
powered kick stage performed three burns to deposit
Starling and SPIREGlobal satellites into two separate
orbits.  The first stage returned by parachute to an
ocean splashdown and recovery during this eventful
mission.

========================================================
             SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

       2022 LAUNCH VEHICLE STANDINGS
========================================================
       by Ed Kyle      as of July 31, 2023
========================================================

    YEAR TO DATE ORBITAL LAUNCH VEHICLE SUMMARY

Calendar year launch vehicle results, ranked by number 
of successes, with launch total as the first tiebreaker 
and vehicle payload mass as the second tiebreaker.  
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions have orbital periods 
less than 2 hours. Deep Space missions include 
heliocentric, planetocentric, and solar system escape 
trajectories.

=========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
=========================================================   
Falcon 9 v1.2        48(0)      40(0)    8(0)    - 
CZ (DF-5)            18(0)      15(0)    3(0)    -
R7                    6(0)       6(0)     -      -   
Electron              6(0)       6(0)     -      -
KZ-1A                 3(0)       3(0)     -      -
Ariane 5              2(0)        -      1(0)   1(0)
Falcon Heavy          3(0)        -      3(0)    -
CZ-7(A)               2(0)       1(0)    1(0)    -
LVM3                  2(0)       1(0)    1(0)    -
PSLV                  2(0)       2(0)     -      -
Ceres-1               2(0)       2(0)     -      -
Delta 4 Heavy         1(0)        -      1(0)    -
Proton M/Briz M       1(0)        -      1(0)    -
Proton M/DM-03        1(0)        -      1(0)    -  
H-2A                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
GSLV Mk2              1(0)        -      1(0)    -
Soyuz 2-1v            1(0)       1(0)     -      -
CZ-6                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
CZ-11                 1(0)       1(0)     -      -
TL-2                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Shavit-2              1(0)       1(0)     -      -
SSLV                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Lijian-1              1(0)       1(0)     -      -
SQX-1                 1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Nuri                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
ZQ-2                  1(0)       1(0)     -      -
Terran 1              1(1)       1(1)     -      -    
LauncherOne           1(1)       1(1)     -      -
RS-1                  1(1)       1(1)     -      -
H-3                   1(1)       1(1)     -      -
Chollimia 1           1(1)       1(1)     -      -
---------------------------------------------------------
Total               114(5)      92(5)   21(0)   1(0) 

 - Ed Kyle