Soyuz-2.1v - EO MKA#1- Plesetsk 43/4 - 9 September 2021 (19:59 UTC)

[Galactic Penguin SST]

It turns out that we all have dodged a surprise Russian sat launch yesterday - a reliable insider on NK forums claimed that there should have been a Soyuz-2.1v launch out of Plesetsk yesterday @ 19:59:47 UTC with a 2nd copy of the little known "EMKA" satellite, the first one of which was launched in March 2018, but it ended up delayed.

Now after some digging related NOTAMs were indeed found for July 23-25 19:00 - 21:00 UTC towards SSO, all of which still active, so it looks like this may have a chance to get off the ground today.

https://twitter.com/nextlaunch/status/1418919941416304645?s=21

Razbeg program thread

[Conexion Espacial]

Launch Site: Site 43/4, Plesetsk Cosmodrome, according russianspaceweb.

[Conexion Espacial]

Soyuz 2.1v Rocket trajectory by www.russianspaceweb.com/emka2.html

[zubenelgenubi]

Now after some digging related NOTAMs were indeed found for July 23-25 19:00 - 21:00 UTC towards SSO, all of which still active, so it looks like this may have a chance to get off the ground today.

No launch today?  Launch tomorrow?
***

Also, the satellite, upon a successful launch, should receive the designation Kosmos 2551.

[B. Hendrickx]

Today’s launch window has closed with no reports of a launch attempt having taken place. It actually looks like the payload for this launch is not EMKA, but its operational successor Razbeg. Both are products of VNIIEM in Moscow. EMKA (“Experimental Small Satellite”) was launched as Kosmos-2525 in March 2018 and re-entered last April. Indications are that it was a technology demonstrator for Razbeg. Judging from its orbital behavior, EMKA was a successful mission and therefore there would be no need for a second demonstration mission.

Razbeg is probably the first in a series of small optical reconnaissance satellites that will complement observations made by the bigger and more capable Persona spy satellites. The two surviving Persona satellites are probably nearing the end of their design lifetime or may already have exceeded it. If they fail before the next-generation Razdan satellites are launched, Razbeg will have to fill the gap. Razbeg may look similar to a satellite that was identified in one VNIIEM publication as MKA-V (see the attachment).

More background here:
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4006/1
And in the Razbeg thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48110.0
Note that Project 505 mentioned in some posts here later turned out to be the satellite that VNIIEM has built for Iran. It is possible, however, that Razbeg and the Project 505 satellite use the same bus. See:
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4199/1

Indirect confirmation that Razbeg is being readied for launch comes from a contract signed last June by NPO Novator, a company based at the Plesetsk cosmodrome that belongs to the VNIIEM Corporation. According to its website, NPO Novator takes part in preparing satellites for launch at the cosmodrome.
https://nponovator.ru/?page_id=322

Information on the contract in question is here:
https://zakupki.gov.ru/223/purchase/public/purchase/info/common-info.html?regNumber=32110257263
https://zakupki.gov.ru/223/contract/public/contract/view/general-information.html?id=11547356

The documentation does not mention Razbeg by name, but refers to the government contract (nr. 6Ts-2016) between the Ministry of Defense and VNIIEM that started the Razbeg project on November 1, 2016 (about a year after a similar contract was signed for EMKA). The contract was for the delivery of gas masks, most likely to protect NPO Novator personnel during fueling of Razbeg with toxic hydrazine propellant. Probably not coincidentally, NPO Novator placed an order for a “hydrazine gas analyzer” only several days later:

https://zakupki.gov.ru/223/contract/public/contract/view/general-information.html?id=11574484

The scarce documentation on this order does not specifically link it to Razbeg, but it is most likely related.  Razbeg is known to have a propulsion system developed by OKB Fakel. It probably uses the same K50-10.5 monopropellant hydrazine thrusters that seem to have been flown on EMKA/Kosmos-2525.

In short, there is good reason to believe that these orders were placed in preparation for the imminent launch of Razbeg.

[input~2]

BARENTS SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
1900Z TO 2100Z DAILY 23 THRU 25 JUL
IN AREA BOUND BY
70-18N 033-49E, 70-12N 034-11E,
69-54N 034-45E, 69-33N 034-47E,
69-25N 034-15E, 69-35N 033-37E,
69-53N 033-05E, 70-13N 033-11E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 252200Z JUL 21.//
Authority: NAVAREA XX 95/21 161734Z JUL 21.
Date: 181918Z JUL 21
Cancel: 25220000 Jul 21
BARENTS SEA.
SVALBARD.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
1900Z TO 2100Z DAILY 23 THRU 25 JUL
IN AREA BOUND BY
75-59N 021-26E, 75-50N 022-05E,
75-34N 022-47E, 75-21N 022-52E,
75-15N 022-13E, 75-24N 021-29E,
75-36N 020-51E, 75-53N 020-43E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 252200Z JUL 21.//
Authority: NAVAREA XIX 90/21 211846Z JUL 21.
Date: 212020Z JUL 21
Cancel: 25220000 Jul 21

[Tomness]

Will it be using RD-193 or NK-33 or retooled AJ-26 back to NK-33?

[B. Hendrickx]

Will it be using RD-193 or NK-33 or retooled AJ-26 back to NK-33?

NK-33.

[input~2]

NOTAM for Bodř FIR (A2850/21) and others have been withdrawn: there won't be a launch today July 25

[owais.usmani]

What happened to this launch? Postponed indefinitely?

[russianhalo117]

What happened to this launch? Postponed indefinitely?

The rocket and payload was returned to MIK used for 2.1v's. No further information is known. Other 2.1v's might also be in the MIK.

[tehwkd]

ENOB

A3554/21 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7537N02148E024
A) ENOB B) 2109091900 C) 2109102100
D) 1900-2100
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA ACTIVATED AT PSN: 755900N0212600E -
755000N0220500E - 753400N0224700E - 752100N0225200E - 751500N0221300E
- 752400N0212900E - 753600N0205100E - 755300N0204300E -
(755900N0212600E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES
F) SFC G) UNL

ULAA

X6900/21 NOTAMN
Q) ULAA/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/999/6217N04111E084
A) ULAA B) 2109091900 C) 2109102100
D) DAILY 1900-2100
E) ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
P988 LAPIG - RUPAD
T825 GISUS - RUPAD
W784 GENSU - TODSA
W785 OTNUK - KUTOB.
F) SFC  G) UNL

ULMM

X6901/21 NOTAMN
Q) ULMM/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/999/7026N03354E036
A) ULMM B) 2109091900 C) 2109102100
D) DAILY 1900-2100
E) ATS RTE T570 SEGMENT NUTLA-LIMUS CLSD.
F) SFC  G) UNL

X6902/21 NOTAMN
Q) ULMM/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/6952N03402E028
A) ULMM B) 2109091900 C) 2109102100
D) 09 10 1900-2100
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT:
701800N0334900E-701200N0341100E-695400N0344500E-693300N0344700E-
692500N0341500E-693500N0333700E-695300N0330500E-701300N0331100E-
701800N0334900E.
F) SFC  G) UNL

[zubenelgenubi]

Launch Site: Site 43/4, Plesetsk Cosmodrome, according russianspaceweb.

Noted: all previous Soyuz-2.1v launches have been from 43/4.

[B. Hendrickx]

Launch set for 22.59.47 Moscow time (19.59.47 UTC) according to an insider on the NK forum.

[B. Hendrickx]

Liftoff confirmed by insider on the NK forum.

[B. Hendrickx]

https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=557021&lang=RU

Ministry of Defense reports successful launch.

[B. Hendrickx]

Pad 43/4 as expected.

[Conexion Espacial]

Roscosmos confirmation
https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1436060283005505540

[LeeMer]

The picture is not from current launch.

[Conexion Espacial]

https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1436061717302321154