First year there will be 365 space launches in one year

[Bubbinski]

Astra’s ambition to launch an average of once a day got me thinking about this. The entire world can muster up about 100 orbital launches per year, along with some suborbital launches (sounding rockets and the like) right now. I really doubt that Astra can get a launch a day going by 2025. The entire world might have a shot at that type of cadence by then, but we’ll see.

For the purposes of this poll, I’m counting every orbital launch attempt, every sounding rocket launch that goes above 50 miles, every suborbital tourist launch or crew/pilot launch of any type above 50 miles (the USAF definition of space), being very liberal about this, and any amateur launch that goes above that 50 mile mark, or attempts to. Attempts in any of the above categories count for this poll.

This is for the entire world community, with SpaceX, ULA, NGC, Firefly, Rocketlab, Astra, Relativity, Virgin Orbit, Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, Arianespace, ESA, NASA, Russia, China, India, Japan, Israel, Britain, etc. etc. COMBINED.

I will say that they’ll hit this mark in 2025, as the Chinese industry will be ramped up and Starship might be flying crews by then, or at least frequent robotic Starlink missions. What do you think?

P.S. don’t worry about leap days or leap years. 365 is my target no matter what year.

[Robotbeat]

Oh shoot. I counted only orbital launches at 2030-2035. Maybe if you include suborbital we’ll beat that by a year or two. But 2030-2035 is a fairly conservative time.

Then again, it’s not a guarantee. The “conservative” assumption is basically the same current launch rate. After the Cold War, launch rate decreased to less than half the current rate.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

As I see it, the likely big drivers for high launch counts will be (soonest first):

+ Satellite constellations
+ Space tourism (mostly suborbital for years to come, due to cost)
+ Point-to-point transportation (if Starship achieves it's goals)

I think mostly likely end of this decade to hit 365 but I'm feeling optimistic today so voted 2026.

[Zed_Noir]

Oh shoot. I counted only orbital launches at 2030-2035. Maybe if you include suborbital we’ll beat that by a year or two. But 2030-2035 is a fairly conservative time.

Then again, it’s not a guarantee. The “conservative” assumption is basically the same current launch rate. After the Cold War, launch rate decreased to less than half the current rate.

Did you account for the many tanker flights needed to support Starship missions beyond LEO?

[ncb1397]

So, the total this year so far as of July 8th by my count

orbital launches: 65 (SpaceLaunchReport.com
2 orbital launch failure (SpaceLaunchReport.com)

New Shepard launches: 2
SpaceShipTwo launches: 1

Furthermore, this wikipedia page lists 55 spaceflights, 12 of which look like accidental duplicates counting the aforementioned Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin flights.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_January%E2%80%93June_2021

And this wikipedia lists 2 additional for July that are dated:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_July%E2%80%93December_2021

So, we are at...
65+2+55-12+2 = 112 in the first 188 days or ~.6 per day. Then again, we just need Putin/Biden/Xi to activate their nuclear footballs and we can meet this "goal" now.

[nasaji]

I don't think that they’ll hit this mark in 2025, so I voted for 2030-2035.

[Timber Micka]

The latest Russian ASAT test reminds us that the stability of LEO operations is fragile.
Considering that no major investment has been made to date on the issue of debris removal, I think nations are waiting for a serious accident to happen before taking action.
It is not impossible that in some decades the international organizations will take the decision to severely limit or even prohibit the launches of satellites in LEO.
LEO would be reserved for government payloads only, and commercial launches would pass through it only temporarily before reaching higher orbits.
I know it's not easy to accept but the possibility of LEO saturation is real, although I don't think it will happen anytime soon.

[Vahe231991]

The 1970s and 1980s would see an annual rate of over 100 launches. I still doubt we could achieve 365 launches in one year given the potential financial constraints.

[Zed_Noir]

The 1970s and 1980s would see an annual rate of over 100 launches. I still doubt we could achieve 365 launches in one year given the potential financial constraints.

The financial constraints isn't really applicable to tanker flights carrying propellants to orbit. A few dozen Mars bound Starships will likely come close or surpassing the annual 365 flight number with the supporting transport and tanker flights.

[Robotbeat]

The 1970s and 1980s would see an annual rate of over 100 launches. I still doubt we could achieve 365 launches in one year given the potential financial constraints.

If you launched Starlink satellites on much smaller fully reusable rockets, we'd be at well over 365 launches per year already. Likely wouldn't cost more, either.