Author Topic: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022) (Read 44713 times)

QuantumG · « **on:** 10/19/2020 10:58 pm »

Here we are again.

The previous poll ended without a result, and here's Elon's word on the subject:

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1317229714025623553

What do you think? When will a Starship prototype reach orbit?

Eric Hedman · « **Reply #1 on:** 10/20/2020 12:15 am »

There are always surprises in development so I voted Feb 2022.

tyrred · « **Reply #2 on:** 10/20/2020 01:11 am »

April 1st 2021

cro-magnon gramps · « **Reply #3 on:** 10/20/2020 01:14 am »

Because Elon recently said the mid teens, and we are already seeing parts for SN-14,
And because Eric vote Feb 2022, I voted Feb 2021.

I voted April 2020 last year, so yeah, I'm on Elon time, as of last Sept 2019

hahaha

dglow · « **Reply #4 on:** 10/20/2020 02:10 am »

Starship SN18 flying on Superheavy SN7 in September 2021.

Lampyridae · « **Reply #5 on:** 10/20/2020 09:12 am »

I just picked September 2021 based on gut feel.

intelati · « **Reply #6 on:** 10/20/2020 02:32 pm »

I'll split the difference of April and September.

June.

rsdavis9 · « **Reply #7 on:** 10/20/2020 03:44 pm »

I went with august as its my bday month.
I personally think april is possible.
Remember this has nothing to do with reentry.

dglow · « **Reply #8 on:** 10/20/2020 03:49 pm »

Quote from: rsdavis9 on 10/20/2020 03:44 pm

Remember this has nothing to do with reentry.

To the letter of the poll question. ‘Reaching orbit’ does not require reentry – agreed.

But Musk can’t use SH without its return being demonstrated. And he won’t try with SS until he thinks there’s at least a chance at successful reentry.

Hog · « **Reply #9 on:** 10/20/2020 04:32 pm »

Quote from: QuantumG on 10/19/2020 10:58 pm

Here we are again.

The previous poll ended without a result, and here's Elon's word on the subject:

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1317229714025623553

What do you think? When will a Starship prototype reach orbit?

By "shuttle booster" does Elon mean the SuperHeavy booster section?

ncb1397 · « **Reply #10 on:** 10/20/2020 04:42 pm »

Quote from: QuantumG on 10/19/2020 10:58 pm

Here we are again.

The previous poll ended without a result, and here's Elon's word on the subject:

What do you mean "ended without a result"? The previous poll still applies, doesn't it? This is just a poll with slightly different options and a different start and end date. It seems like the previous poll's predominant response even is likely to be correct with the most votes being May 2021 or later. Seems like it did have a result(or will have one relatively soon) in terms of which option was correct (although I guess we have to see it fly to orbit once to distinguish between "never" and "may 2021 or later"?

I would recommend just putting quarters in here so we don't have to redo the poll every year.

QuantumG · « **Reply #11 on:** 10/20/2020 11:53 pm »

Quote from: ncb1397 on 10/20/2020 04:42 pm

I would recommend just putting quarters in here so we don't have to redo the poll every year.

Where's the fun in that?

ulm_atms · « **Reply #12 on:** 10/21/2020 12:04 am »

rsdavis9 beat me to it

I chose Aug so I can have a cool birthday present.

Endeavour_01 · « **Reply #13 on:** 10/21/2020 01:46 am »

I voted May 2022. Given the Musk time dilation factor and Super Heavy development just now beginning in earnest I think it will take about a year and a half before Starship successfully reaches orbit.

Still insanely fast though.

jongoff · « **Reply #14 on:** 10/22/2020 05:45 am »

I voted May 2022 or later. Last time I voted May 2021 or later (because I think it will eventually fly, but that was the latest option other than it won't fly). There's just so much work between here and building and debugging SuperHeavy that I would be pretty surprised if it happened in 2021. May 2022 might just be pessimistic enough that he'll prove me wrong this time. FWIW, if you had asked me back when he first announced ITS when it would've made orbit, I probably would've said 2021-2023. And everyone would've poo-pooed me for betting against SpaceX.

~Jon

envy887 · « **Reply #15 on:** 10/22/2020 12:59 pm »

Quote from: jongoff on 10/22/2020 05:45 am

I voted May 2022 or later. Last time I voted May 2021 or later (because I think it will eventually fly, but that was the latest option other than it won't fly). There's just so much work between here and building and debugging SuperHeavy that I would be pretty surprised if it happened in 2021. May 2022 might just be pessimistic enough that he'll prove me wrong this time. FWIW, if you had asked me back when he first announced ITS when it would've made orbit, I probably would've said 2021-2023. And everyone would've poo-pooed me for betting against SpaceX.

~Jon

Well, that isn't exactly what you said before the ITS announcement. What about the 2016 presentation changed your mind?

Quote from: jongoff on 01/26/2016 12:38 am

I'm not trying to be anti-SpaceX, but I voted never. Not because I think SpaceX is going to fail as a company, or that they'll abandon their Mars ambitions. I'm just not convinced that the bigger-than-Saturn-V BFR concept makes any technical or economic sense, and I think SpaceX will come around to that conclusion before the sink crazy amounts of money into something that I think would be a dead-end. I think that instead they'll focus on higher flight-rate compatible medium vehicles, depots, and other technologies that I think make more sense. I also think Blue Origin and ULA will end up forcing them to focus more on competing for the earth-to-orbit market than many other SpaceX fans think.

~Jon

That poll ended in March 2016, and back then 85% of the voters thought that it would take SpaceX until at least 2021 to reach orbit with BFR. The median vote was 2023, so the "2021-2023" range would have been somewhat more optimistic than the majority opinion.

Negan · « **Reply #16 on:** 10/22/2020 02:50 pm »

I voted October 2021 because I want it to beat SLS to orbit. I think the only real issues to not making 2021 are when will they get launch approval and whether the orbital launch mount will work without a flame diverter.

rsdavis9 · « **Reply #17 on:** 10/22/2020 03:21 pm »

Quote from: Negan on 10/22/2020 02:50 pm

I voted October 2021 because I want it to beat SLS to orbit. I think the only real issues to not making 2021 are when will they get launch approval and whether the orbital launch mount will work without a flame diverter.

Well it only needs to work once for them to get to orbit.

Negan · « **Reply #18 on:** 10/22/2020 03:24 pm »

Quote from: rsdavis9 on 10/22/2020 03:21 pm

Quote from: Negan on 10/22/2020 02:50 pm
I voted October 2021 because I want it to beat SLS to orbit. I think the only real issues to not making 2021 are when will they get launch approval and whether the orbital launch mount will work without a flame diverter.

Well it only needs to work once for them to get to orbit.

I don't think they'll skip the SH static fire.

rsdavis9 · « **Reply #19 on:** 10/22/2020 03:42 pm »

Quote from: Negan on 10/22/2020 03:24 pm

Quote from: rsdavis9 on 10/22/2020 03:21 pm
Quote from: Negan on 10/22/2020 02:50 pm
I voted October 2021 because I want it to beat SLS to orbit. I think the only real issues to not making 2021 are when will they get launch approval and whether the orbital launch mount will work without a flame diverter.

Well it only needs to work once for them to get to orbit.

I don't think they'll skip the SH static fire.

Static fire only 1 or 2 seconds.

Poll

When will the first Starship reach orbit?

Author Topic: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022) (Read 44713 times)