When will the first Starship reach orbit?

[QuantumG]

Well, Elon threw us a curve ball will the big reveal poll but I think we're well situated to make our guesses when for Starship will reach orbit. So have at it.

[daedalus1]

I haven't seen any signs of a first stage yet. That has to be built first.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

After adjusting for Elon Time Dilation Constant (TM) I'm voting for May 2021 or later, maybe around 2022, with the whole system not flying till 2024 and the first trial run with people NET 2026. 

[FutureSpaceTourist]

I’m feeling optimistic so went with April 2021. An Elon time dilation factor of about 1.5?

Mk 1 20 km flight I think will be late Q1 2020. I can imagine a Mk 2 / Mk 3 higher flight in Q3 / Q4. Construction of SH in 2nd half of 2020, with SS + SH integrated testing in Q1 2021 and orbital flight in April 2021.

So I’m being wildly optimistic & assuming first orbital attempt succeeds (at least in getting to orbit, not so sure about recovering SS successfully)

[Dalhousie]

Options should be years, not months.

[high road]

Options should be years, not months.

Or quarters.

That crazy flip before landing seems like a recipe for desaster. I think they're going to install those hot gas thrusters before attempting orbit. And probably lots of other 'little' details as they encounter them. That adds some delay, so my guess is q1 2021.

[QuantumG]

Options should be years, not months.

It's an annual poll. Think yaself lucky I bust it out to 18 months. 😂

[whitelancer64]

Had a burst of optimism and voted Nov. 2020. Realist me thinks early 2021 is more likely, though.

Wild bet: SLS and Starship launching with 50 days of eachother...

*edit*
Wilder bet: New Glenn, Vulcan, SLS, and Starship all launch within 180 days of eachother.

[QuantumG]

https://twitter.com/HarryStoltz1/status/1186751160008359936

Gwynne time.

[meberbs]

I went conservative with a full factor of 2 for Musk time dilation and picked September 2020, my gut wanted me to go 1 month earlier. I am not sure how people are considering later dates than that as optimistic. We can see the start of building the next gen of Starships that are intended to go into orbit, and infrastructure to increase build rate and capacity. We should see the Super Heavy builds start Q1 2020 while they put the finishing touches on mk3 and mk 4. Enough time to be done by late summer, with some margin for pre launch tests. This timeline is still conservative depending on how much lessons learned and existing infrastructure speeds future builds. And the 2 parallel builds mitigates a lot of "what if something goes wrong."

[c4fusion]

I am not sure why everyone thinks it so hard for SpaceX to get to space to be honest. They have already shown they can get to orbit with their falcon 9 on their first try with a craft far more complex than the falcon 1.  But now they have far more experience with launching rockets to space.  Now as for actually landing the second stage and getting through reentry that's a total different problem.  Also last point to note is that SpaceX may fail to land mk 1 and mk 2 and elect to push for launch to orbit in the meantime to learn more about the heat shields and handling in the hypersonic regime.

Originally before the Boca reveal, I was thinking about end of 2020, but now I think it might be around July 2020.

[Nomadd]

 If a Starship launches to the east from Boca Chica and lands 300 feet to the west of the launchpad 90 minutes later, will people say it wasn't a full orbit?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

If a Starship launches to the east from Boca Chica and lands 300 feet to the west of the launchpad 90 minutes later, will people say it wasn't a full orbit?

That's more than Yuri Gagarin's flight....

[high road]

I am not sure why everyone thinks it so hard for SpaceX to get to space to be honest. They have already shown they can get to orbit with their falcon 9 on their first try with a craft far more complex than the falcon 1.  But now they have far more experience with launching rockets to space.  Now as for actually landing the second stage and getting through reentry that's a total different problem.  Also last point to note is that SpaceX may fail to land mk 1 and mk 2 and elect to push for launch to orbit in the meantime to learn more about the heat shields and handling in the hypersonic regime.

Originally before the Boca reveal, I was thinking about end of 2020, but now I think it might be around July 2020.

Falcon 9 was expendable. The point of Starship is that it's reusable. They have plenty of experience getting to orbit. I don't see the benefit of getting Starship to orbit, without maximizing the chance of it surviving reentry/landing intact enough to learn all they can from it. Which doesn't mean it absolutely has to survive, only that it needs to stand as big of a chance as is considered reasonable by SpaceX standards.

Working out F9 reusability had the benefit that every launch was paid for. Starship won't have that advantage. Even if they would launch paying customers on Starship test flights, each Starship is far more expensive than an F9. You don't throw it away intentionally if you can avoid it economically. Although by writing this, I now realize there's a grey area where it might make sense to launch whatever you build, as you don't learn anything by not launching them either.

[mmeijeri]

They have plenty of experience getting to orbit. I don't see the benefit of getting Starship to orbit, without maximizing the chance of it surviving reentry/landing intact enough to learn all they can from it.

That is true, but it doesn't have to reach orbit with a lot of payload. Mk3 and Mk4 can still afford to be overbuilt.

[envy887]

If a Starship launches to the east from Boca Chica and lands 300 feet to the west of the launchpad 90 minutes later, will people say it wasn't a full orbit?

Orbit is an energy state, not a distance traveled. If you reach an orbital altitude and velocity vector then deorbit and land after less than one revolution, it still counts as reaching orbit.

[whitelancer64]

I am not sure why everyone thinks it so hard for SpaceX to get to space to be honest. They have already shown they can get to orbit with their falcon 9 on their first try with a craft far more complex than the falcon 1.  But now they have far more experience with launching rockets to space.  Now as for actually landing the second stage and getting through reentry that's a total different problem.  Also last point to note is that SpaceX may fail to land mk 1 and mk 2 and elect to push for launch to orbit in the meantime to learn more about the heat shields and handling in the hypersonic regime.

Originally before the Boca reveal, I was thinking about end of 2020, but now I think it might be around July 2020.

I don't think anyone's doubting the ability of SpaceX to put Starship into orbit, just the timing of when they'll be ready to do that.

[Hog]

If a Starship launches to the east from Boca Chica and lands 300 feet to the west of the launchpad 90 minutes later, will people say it wasn't a full orbit?

This threads title is "When will the first Starship reach orbit?"  "Reach orbit" assumes attaining orbital velocities.
Reaching orbital velocities and then slowing for entry/landing would satisfy most criteria for reaching orbit.  You don't have to "make one complete circumnavigation of the Earth" IOW a Starship doesn't have to make a full orbit of the Earth in order for it to "reach orbit" or "be on-orbit". 

The actual distance traveled while "on orbit" is almost inconsequential when compared to the positive/negative accelerations required for attaining orbital velocities and then slowing again for entry. That immense amount of kinetic energy that the spacecraft has acquired during launch must be dealt with during entry, mostly as heating due to the compression of the atmosphere ahead of the direction of travel.
 On orbit operations are considered "safer" than Launch ops or Entry ops.

All of this logical discussion aside, I'm sure though that there will be handwavers that would say "Oh, it's not an orbital space vehicle because it was a FULL 300 feet short of a complete orbit of the Earth." lol

[laszlo]

Now who's moving the goalposts?

[meberbs]

If a Starship launches to the east from Boca Chica and lands 300 feet to the west of the launchpad 90 minutes later, will people say it wasn't a full orbit?

Due to the rotation of the Earth, at Boca Chica latitude, it will end up 2200 km west after 1 full circle. I don't think there should be any complaints if it continues east for 2200 km more to get back to within a few hundred feet of the launch site.