Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3

[yg1968]

https://twitter.com/genejm29/status/1483804834994302982

[yg1968]

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1483820445505929228

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1483821867869822984

[yg1968]

See this commercial crew presentation by Steve Stich:
https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/ccp_status_to_nac_january_2022_draft_rev_4_2022-01-18_23.12.18_1.pdf

[Rondaz]

Commercial Crew Program: Embracing the Next Challenge

[Conexion Espacial]

NASA Awards SpaceX Additional Crew Flights to Space Station



NASA has awarded three additional missions to Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, California, for crew transportation services to the International Space Station as part of its Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contract. The CCtCap modification, following the agency’s notice of intent to procure the flights in December 2021, brings the total missions for SpaceX to nine and allows NASA to maintain an uninterrupted U.S. capability for human access to the space station.


This is a firm fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract modification for the Crew-7, Crew-8, and Crew-9 missions, bringing the total contract value to $3,490,872,904. The period of performance runs through March 31, 2028. The current sole source modification does not preclude NASA from seeking additional contract modifications in the future for additional transportation services as needed.


In 2014, NASA awarded the CCtCap contracts to Boeing and SpaceX through a public-private partnership as part of the agency’s Commercial Crew Program. Under CCtCap, NASA certifies that a provider’s space transportation system meets the agency’s requirements prior to flying missions with astronauts.


SpaceX was certified by NASA for crew transportation in November 2020, and currently its third crew rotation mission for the agency is in orbit. As part of the missions, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket transport up to four astronauts along with critical cargo to the space station.

[1]

So, someone who pays more attention to this should check my math, but it appears that the SpaceX award has gone from $2.6B to $3.5B, or just under $900M for three additional flights. Pretty much right where woods' earlier guess was. Works out to ~$75M per seat.

[yg1968]

NASA Awards SpaceX Additional Crew Flights to Space Station

The period of performance runs through March 31, 2028.

In the notice of intent to sole source (see the link below), NASA said that they need the new SpaceX missions as early as 2023. If you start the new SpaceX missions in the fall of 2023 and have one mission per year, the last of these missions should be in 2025. But I suppose that there is some margin in case that Boeing is ready to fly its first operational mission in the fall of 2023.

Interestingly, the notice of intent said up to 3 new SpaceX missions but this press release says 3 new SpaceX missions (not up to 3 new missions).

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49156.msg2317604#msg2317604

[woods170]

So, someone who pays more attention to this should check my math, but it appears that the SpaceX award has gone from $2.6B to $3.5B, or just under $900M for three additional flights. Pretty much right where woods' earlier guess was. Works out to ~$75M per seat.

You are referring to this:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49156.msg2317750#msg2317750

And yes, I was right. But I need to confess that my guestimate was informed by a few hints given to me by SpaceX sources. They did not mention any numbers to me. They just provided some - what I like to call - "indicators".

[woods170]

NASA Awards SpaceX Additional Crew Flights to Space Station

The period of performance runs through March 31, 2028.

In the notice of intent to sole source (see the link below), NASA said that they need the new SpaceX missions as early as 2023. If you start the new SpaceX missions in the fall of 2023 and have one mission per year, the last of these missions should be in 2025. But I suppose that there is some margin in case that Boeing is ready to fly its first operational mission in the fall of 2023.

Interestingly, the notice of intent said up to 3 new SpaceX missions but this press release says 3 new SpaceX missions (not up to 3 new missions).

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49156.msg2317604#msg2317604

The notice of intent was indeed phrased as "up to three missions" but careful observers had already understood that to become "three missions", just by observing current progress (or better: lack thereof) at Boeing.

[Redclaws]

NASA Awards SpaceX Additional Crew Flights to Space Station

The period of performance runs through March 31, 2028.

In the notice of intent to sole source (see the link below), NASA said that they need the new SpaceX missions as early as 2023. If you start the new SpaceX missions in the fall of 2023 and have one mission per year, the last of these missions should be in 2025. But I suppose that there is some margin in case that Boeing is ready to fly its first operational mission in the fall of 2023.

Interestingly, the notice of intent said up to 3 new SpaceX missions but this press release says 3 new SpaceX missions (not up to 3 new missions).

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49156.msg2317604#msg2317604

I’m also sure NASA and SpaceX have had conversations about intentions and contingencies with the idea that SpaceX would be able to flex to provide what NASA might need beyond 2025.  Given certain lead times, etc.

[DanClemmensen]

NASA Awards SpaceX Additional Crew Flights to Space Station

The period of performance runs through March 31, 2028.

In the notice of intent to sole source (see the link below), NASA said that they need the new SpaceX missions as early as 2023. If you start the new SpaceX missions in the fall of 2023 and have one mission per year, the last of these missions should be in 2025. But I suppose that there is some margin in case that Boeing is ready to fly its first operational mission in the fall of 2023.

Interestingly, the notice of intent said up to 3 new SpaceX missions but this press release says 3 new SpaceX missions (not up to 3 new missions).

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49156.msg2317604#msg2317604

I’m also sure NASA and SpaceX have had conversations about intentions and contingencies with the idea that SpaceX would be able to flex to provide what NASA might need beyond 2025.  Given certain lead times, etc.

NASA published this sole-source extension to SpaceX starting about two years before the first of the three flights would be needed in the worst case. (Contract extension announced in fall 2021, actual award this week, earliest award flight fall 2023).  If we assume they would follow a similar process for the next three flights, the lead time you refer to is about two years. The earliest extension 2 flight would be in the highly unlikely case that Starliner never flies: this would be Spring 2025. in the best case Starliner flies in Spring 2023 and flies all the Spring flights thereafter. The three Dragon extension 1 flights are Fall 2023, 2024, 2025 and the first extension 2 flight would be Fall 2026. last of Starliner's six flights would be Spring 2028, unless NASA chooses to do something other than strictly alternate between Crew Dragon and Starliner.

The fun question then becomes "how many prior flights can a capsule have flown and still be acceptable by NASA for a CCP flight?"

[DanClemmensen]

So, someone who pays more attention to this should check my math, but it appears that the SpaceX award has gone from $2.6B to $3.5B, or just under $900M for three additional flights. Pretty much right where woods' earlier guess was. Works out to ~$75M per seat.

Math is good, but see references in
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Crew_Program
I do not understand how this relates to "SpaceX's CCtCap contract values each seat on a Crew Dragon flight to be between US$60–67 million"  or to "the face value of each seat has been estimated by NASA's Office of Inspector General (OIG) to be around US$55 million."

This also raises the question of the equivalent Starliner numbers: "Boeing's CCtCap contract values each seat on a CST-100 flight to be between US$91–99 million while the face value of each seat has been estimated by NASA's OIG to be around US$90 million]".

Maybe there are costs in the contract extension that are magically not considered to be part of the per-seat cost?

[Conexion Espacial]

NASA Awards SpaceX Additional Crew Flights to Space Station

The period of performance runs through March 31, 2028.

In the notice of intent to sole source (see the link below), NASA said that they need the new SpaceX missions as early as 2023. If you start the new SpaceX missions in the fall of 2023 and have one mission per year, the last of these missions should be in 2025. But I suppose that there is some margin in case that Boeing is ready to fly its first operational mission in the fall of 2023.

Interestingly, the notice of intent said up to 3 new SpaceX missions but this press release says 3 new SpaceX missions (not up to 3 new missions).

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49156.msg2317604#msg2317604

Of course, after the Starliner is finally operational, what we might see is a Dragon mission and then a Starliner mission, and so on, which would mean that Dragon would be launched less regularly to allow for Starliner flights.

[freddo411]

So, someone who pays more attention to this should check my math, but it appears that the SpaceX award has gone from $2.6B to $3.5B, or just under $900M for three additional flights. Pretty much right where woods' earlier guess was. Works out to ~$75M per seat.

Math is good, but see references in
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Crew_Program
I do not understand how this relates to "SpaceX's CCtCap contract values each seat on a Crew Dragon flight to be between US$60–67 million"  or to "the face value of each seat has been estimated by NASA's Office of Inspector General (OIG) to be around US$55 million."

This also raises the question of the equivalent Starliner numbers: "Boeing's CCtCap contract values each seat on a CST-100 flight to be between US$91–99 million while the face value of each seat has been estimated by NASA's OIG to be around US$90 million]".

Maybe there are costs in the contract extension that are magically not considered to be part of the per-seat cost?

The previous cost of about $55 million per seat was for the first six flights in the first contract.     This contract extension has a new price per seat.    No reason for them to match.

Note that on an inflation adjusted basis, 75 million (2022) may be cheaper than $55 million (2014 or whatever year that was)

[niwax]

So, someone who pays more attention to this should check my math, but it appears that the SpaceX award has gone from $2.6B to $3.5B, or just under $900M for three additional flights. Pretty much right where woods' earlier guess was. Works out to ~$75M per seat.

Math is good, but see references in
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Crew_Program
I do not understand how this relates to "SpaceX's CCtCap contract values each seat on a Crew Dragon flight to be between US$60–67 million"  or to "the face value of each seat has been estimated by NASA's Office of Inspector General (OIG) to be around US$55 million."

This also raises the question of the equivalent Starliner numbers: "Boeing's CCtCap contract values each seat on a CST-100 flight to be between US$91–99 million while the face value of each seat has been estimated by NASA's OIG to be around US$90 million]".

Maybe there are costs in the contract extension that are magically not considered to be part of the per-seat cost?

The previous cost of about $55 million per seat was for the first six flights in the first contract.     This contract extension has a new price per seat.    No reason for them to match.

Note that on an inflation adjusted basis, 75 million (2022) may be cheaper than $55 million (2014 or whatever year that was)

SpaceX has publicly said that, looking back, they wish they had bid slightly more on CC. They are now simply adjusting their price to what Boeing cost from the outset.

[mandrewa]

So, someone who pays more attention to this should check my math, but it appears that the SpaceX award has gone from $2.6B to $3.5B, or just under $900M for three additional flights. Pretty much right where woods' earlier guess was. Works out to ~$75M per seat.

If I understand correctly Gongora looked at the Federal Procurement Data System in early February for SpaceX's commercial crew contract and at that point the running total was $2.735 billion.  The difference between that and the original $2.6 billion may have been for additional parachute tests.

For all we know there may have been even more additional parachute test money added on to today's announcement given that they are studying the slow inflation of the fourth parachute in the last landing.

But if we assume that isn't the case, and if we assume that this new money was only for adding Crew-7, Crew-8, and Crew-9, the difference between $3,490,872,904 and $2.735 billion is $755.9 million. 

Or $252 million per launch.  Or $63 million per seat.

[mandrewa]

Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if SpaceX's prices have stayed the same, ie. $225 million per mission, and the difference $80.9 million is money for additional parachute testing.

[wannamoonbase]

Great news for SpaceX on the additional crew wins. 

Pathetic passive lose by Boeing. 

[yg1968]

NASA Awards SpaceX Additional Crew Flights to Space Station

The period of performance runs through March 31, 2028.

In the notice of intent to sole source (see the link below), NASA said that they need the new SpaceX missions as early as 2023. If you start the new SpaceX missions in the fall of 2023 and have one mission per year, the last of these missions should be in 2025. But I suppose that there is some margin in case that Boeing is ready to fly its first operational mission in the fall of 2023.

Interestingly, the notice of intent said up to 3 new SpaceX missions but this press release says 3 new SpaceX missions (not up to 3 new missions).

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49156.msg2317604#msg2317604

I’m also sure NASA and SpaceX have had conversations about intentions and contingencies with the idea that SpaceX would be able to flex to provide what NASA might need beyond 2025.  Given certain lead times, etc.

In the notice of intent, NASA had repeated its intent to pursue the Commercial Crew Transportation Services Round (i.e., the phase after CCtCap), I am hoping that is still the case. I think that new entrants such as Dream Chaser and Blue Origin should be allowed to compete.

[GWH]

The previous cost of about $55 million per seat was for the first six flights in the first contract.     This contract extension has a new price per seat.    No reason for them to match.

Note that on an inflation adjusted basis, 75 million (2022) may be cheaper than $55 million (2014 or whatever year that was)

CCTcap was indeed awarded in 2014, and inflation adjusted at an increased of 18.8% that works out to $63.5M in today's dollars.