This story raises some interesting questions, but I wonder if the issue goes deeper. @ulalaunch has flown just twice in 6.5 months this year (Deltas). Remarkably, the Atlas V rocket has launched just once in 14 months.https://spacenews.com/atlas-5-and-delta-4-launch-delays-caused-by-common-component-in-upper-stage/
@torybruno How will @ulalaunch sustain the launch cadence necessary to support your technical & manufacturing infrastructure w so few launches? Will the partially reusable Vulcan truly be able to compete with the fully reusable Falcon 9 booster?
This year was planned with a large gap to accommodate pad mods for Vulcan, which are underway right now. We are currently at an all time record high with 30 booster cores in flow at the Decatur factory and expect about a launch per month next year and the year after.
They certainly seem to be struggling a little these days with a lot of launch delays and few launch contracts.Their attempts to win more commercial launches doesn't seem to have been very successful, although they certainly have been working hard to shed the baggage imposed on them from what was 3 completely separate rocket families. Some of the reviews floating around certainly indicate that the road to being more competitive has been a rocky one.There's a few employees posting anonymously here: https://www.reddit.com/r/ula/comments/cb0y5s/current_state_of_morale_at_ula/And their Glassdoor reviews of course:https://www.glassdoor.ca/Reviews/United-Launch-Alliance-Reviews-E146300.htm
Looking at the latest US launch schedule I make it 10 ULA launches in 2020 and 12 in 2021 (including a couple of test Vulcan flights). I think there may be a couple more CC Starliner launches on top of that too (e.g. I doubt CFT will be this year).So Tory’s statement: “expect about a launch per month next year and the year after.” is pretty accurate. Clearly quite a few more cores to come after the 30, which won’t even cover ULA to end of 2021.I recall Tory saying that ULA will supply DIVH as long as customers want it, but presumably they’re expecting customers to stop asking once Vulcan is proven and certified.
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 07/19/2019 06:01 pmLooking at the latest US launch schedule I make it 10 ULA launches in 2020 and 12 in 2021 (including a couple of test Vulcan flights). I think there may be a couple more CC Starliner launches on top of that too (e.g. I doubt CFT will be this year).So Tory’s statement: “expect about a launch per month next year and the year after.” is pretty accurate. Clearly quite a few more cores to come after the 30, which won’t even cover ULA to end of 2021.I recall Tory saying that ULA will supply DIVH as long as customers want it, but presumably they’re expecting customers to stop asking once Vulcan is proven and certified.I suspect that with the complete silence on BE-4, Vulcan (and NG) will probably be delayed to 2022.add in some launches moving to the right (always happens) and I suspect ULA's totals for 2020 and 2021 will probably both be ~9.
Quote from: ZachF on 07/26/2019 12:39 pmQuote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 07/19/2019 06:01 pmLooking at the latest US launch schedule I make it 10 ULA launches in 2020 and 12 in 2021 (including a couple of test Vulcan flights). I think there may be a couple more CC Starliner launches on top of that too (e.g. I doubt CFT will be this year).So Tory’s statement: “expect about a launch per month next year and the year after.” is pretty accurate. Clearly quite a few more cores to come after the 30, which won’t even cover ULA to end of 2021.I recall Tory saying that ULA will supply DIVH as long as customers want it, but presumably they’re expecting customers to stop asking once Vulcan is proven and certified.I suspect that with the complete silence on BE-4, Vulcan (and NG) will probably be delayed to 2022.add in some launches moving to the right (always happens) and I suspect ULA's totals for 2020 and 2021 will probably both be ~9.There is not complete silence from ULA. There are stages in various phases of production.
Not talking about ULA but Blue Origin... we've heard hardly anything about BE-4 for well over a year now.
Quote from: ZachF on 07/27/2019 12:08 pmNot talking about ULA but Blue Origin... we've heard hardly anything about BE-4 for well over a year now.A bit less than a year. In late January, 2019, Blue Origin's Bob Smith told reporters that BE-4 had been tested at 70% thrust for more than 200 second durations and that a new version would soon be installed at the test site designed to test at 100% thrust. Bezos more or less confirmed that in a February 2019 interview. But yes, I don't think we have heard anything about the 100% thrust testing, which makes one wonder. Meanwhile, Raptor is firing away in full view down at Boca Chica and we've heard directly from Elon about the challenges that engine development has faced that has limited its throttling ability, for example.
In the first year of testing – because of other problems – we were unable to operate at rated thrust (the performance level an engine is designed to achieve). That’s not unusual. In fact, it’s more usual than not that the first engine in a new design is unable to achieve rated thrust for some reason. The maximum thrust the F-1 could hit for the first engine was 1 million pounds; so, for the first year, testing was limited to 1 million pounds
Quote from: edkyle99 on 07/27/2019 04:26 pmQuote from: ZachF on 07/27/2019 12:08 pmNot talking about ULA but Blue Origin... we've heard hardly anything about BE-4 for well over a year now.A bit less than a year. In late January, 2019, Blue Origin's Bob Smith told reporters that BE-4 had been tested at 70% thrust for more than 200 second durations and that a new version would soon be installed at the test site designed to test at 100% thrust. Bezos more or less confirmed that in a February 2019 interview. But yes, I don't think we have heard anything about the 100% thrust testing, which makes one wonder. Meanwhile, Raptor is firing away in full view down at Boca Chica and we've heard directly from Elon about the challenges that engine development has faced that has limited its throttling ability, for example. The Apollo F-1 engine development, which operated at a breakneck pace, took a year to go from partial thrust to full thrust:Quote In the first year of testing – because of other problems – we were unable to operate at rated thrust (the performance level an engine is designed to achieve). That’s not unusual. In fact, it’s more usual than not that the first engine in a new design is unable to achieve rated thrust for some reason. The maximum thrust the F-1 could hit for the first engine was 1 million pounds; so, for the first year, testing was limited to 1 million poundsSo by this (probably overly simplistic) comparison, we could expect full thrust engines early next year.
ULA getting corralled by both parents. Boeing says don't do in-space refueling or the ACES upper stage. Lockheed says don't do the XEUS lunar lander. Company is thus forced to put all of its eggs into the Vulcan basket. Not good for them, or aerospace in general.
A lot of that was aimed at me and my advanced programs group at ULA. We had released a series of papers showing how a depot/refueling architecture would enable a human exploration program using existing (at the time) commercial rockets.
Boeing became furious and tried to get me fired. Kudos to my CEO for protecting me. But we were banned from even saying the “d” word out loud.
But physics cannot be silenced forever. Refueling is an incredible game changer, especially with fuel from space. Was a great moment for me to hear VP Pence talk fuel depots in his address at the Space Symposium in 2018.
Sad part is that ULA did a lot of pathfinding work in that area and could have owned the refueling/depot market, enriching Boeing (and Lockheed) in the process. But it was shut down because it threatened SLS.
Reminds me of the Kodak story. Kodak invented digital photography, but did not pursue because it threatened their film business. Now they are out of business...
Quote from: LouScheffer on 07/28/2019 03:47 amQuote from: edkyle99 on 07/27/2019 04:26 pmQuote from: ZachF on 07/27/2019 12:08 pmNot talking about ULA but Blue Origin... we've heard hardly anything about BE-4 for well over a year now.A bit less than a year. In late January, 2019, Blue Origin's Bob Smith told reporters that BE-4 had been tested at 70% thrust for more than 200 second durations and that a new version would soon be installed at the test site designed to test at 100% thrust. Bezos more or less confirmed that in a February 2019 interview. But yes, I don't think we have heard anything about the 100% thrust testing, which makes one wonder. Meanwhile, Raptor is firing away in full view down at Boca Chica and we've heard directly from Elon about the challenges that engine development has faced that has limited its throttling ability, for example. The Apollo F-1 engine development, which operated at a breakneck pace, took a year to go from partial thrust to full thrust:Quote In the first year of testing – because of other problems – we were unable to operate at rated thrust (the performance level an engine is designed to achieve). That’s not unusual. In fact, it’s more usual than not that the first engine in a new design is unable to achieve rated thrust for some reason. The maximum thrust the F-1 could hit for the first engine was 1 million pounds; so, for the first year, testing was limited to 1 million poundsSo by this (probably overly simplistic) comparison, we could expect full thrust engines early next year.Emphasis mine.Does the fact that the F-1 engine was never designed to be throttleable have any influence over its progress when compared to the other modern engines in development?Those F-1's are amazing engines. I'd love to see SLS Block 2 use the Pyrios Advanced Boosters proposal which would see 4 RS-25s running at 113% on the Core Stage with 4 F-1B KeroLox engines running in pairs on 2 Liquid Rocket Boosters. 4 x 1.8 million pounds of thrust for 7.2 million pounds thrust just from the Boosters plus 4 x 528,000 pounds thrust @ 113%=2,112,000 pounds thrust for the Core STage.Core STage Thrust + Booster thrust= total thrust7,200,000 + 2,112,000=9,312,000 pounds of thrust
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1156663096192176128QuoteULA getting corralled by both parents. Boeing says don't do in-space refueling or the ACES upper stage. Lockheed says don't do the XEUS lunar lander. Company is thus forced to put all of its eggs into the Vulcan basket. Not good for them, or aerospace in general.
