Soyuz-2.1a/Fregat - Neitron #1 - Plesetsk 43/4 - 5 February 2022 (07:00 UTC)

[Satori]

The first Neitron satellite will possibly be launched from Plesetsk on November or December 2018.

[Alter Sachse]

To remember:
The program thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45081.0

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post from the November 3 Glonass-M launch thread re: Soyuz activity at Plesetsk:

Video of the launch at link below. Article says that GLONASS-M was successfully placed into orbit and that there are no more Soyuz launches planned from Plesetsk this year.

https://www.5-tv.ru/news/226953/glonassm-blagopolucno-vyveden-narascetnuu-orbitu/
<snip>

[Satori]

Postponed to 2019.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post; my bold:

https://tass.ru/kosmos/6634814
Google translation
Russia will hold seven space launches in July

This month we have to carry out the number of start-ups that we have carried out during the entire six months, in order to increase the figure that is much higher than last year. <...> You know, on Baikonur, there will still be a manned launch on July 20, a transport ship on July 31, the rest is Plesetsk, and so on. Only seven starts, "he said

There could be three launches from Plesetsk in July.

Assuming there are indeed 3 launches scheduled from Plesetsk in July
and
Given the first week of July is almost gone and we have not seen any NOTAMS
then
Spacing between launches should be ca. 10 days (like July 10, July 20, July 30)

Since there is only one pad for Soyuz-2 (43/4) such cadence seems doubtful to me.
Theoretically it is possible to recycle pad in 10 days, but two times in a row - it's quite a different story.

[Zubenelgenubi edit strike this sentence]
So, my guess - one of these July launches is Rokot with Geo-IK-2.

http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/forum14/topic16307/?PAGEN_1=47

The Russian launch schedule on the "Novosti kosmonavtiki" forum now shows the following launches scheduled from Plesetsk  "no earlier than July", all from pad 43/4:

- Soyuz-2-1V/Volga  (payload not given, but possibly Nivelir/14F150 nr. 2)
- Soyuz-2-1A/Fregat : Meridian-M nr. 18L
- Soyuz-2-1A/Fregat : 14F01/Neitron

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post re: July 30 launch of Meridian #8; discussion starts here with NOTMAR posting in launch thread.

As there is currently one functional Soyuz-2 LC at Plesetsk, then a Neitron launch from Plesetsk, from the same LC, would be NET August.
***

Cross-post re: next Soyuz-2 launch from Plesetsk; Meridian #8 or Neitron #1:

Neitron is launching to a previous programme's orbit.

IF Neitron are radar reconnaissance satellites, THEN the inclination of their operational orbits should differ significantly from those of Meridian satellites (approx. 65 deg.)?

And therefore, the coordinate areas of associated launch NOTAMs and NOTMARs would also differ accordingly?

What program's orbit (and perhaps functionality) could Neitron be emulating?

[russianhalo117]

Cross-post re: July 30 launch of Meridian #8; discussion starts here with NOTMAR posting in launch thread.

As there is currently one functional Soyuz-2 LC at Plesetsk, then a Neitron launch from Plesetsk, from the same LC, would be NET August.
***

Cross-post re: next Soyuz-2 launch from Plesetsk; Meridian #8 or Neitron #1:

Neitron is launching to a previous programme's orbit.

IF Neitron are radar reconnaissance satellites, THEN the inclination of their operational orbits should differ significantly from those of Meridian satellites (approx. 65 deg.)?

And therefore, the coordinate areas of associated launch NOTAMs and NOTMARs would also differ accordingly?

What program's orbit (and perhaps functionality) could Neitron be emulating?

Bumping this useful thread: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45081.0

[B. Hendrickx]

Cross-post re: next Soyuz-2 launch from Plesetsk; Meridian #8 or Neitron #1:

Neitron is launching to a previous programme's orbit.

IF Neitron are radar reconnaissance satellites, THEN the inclination of their operational orbits should differ significantly from those of Meridian satellites (approx. 65 deg.)?

And therefore, the coordinate areas of associated launch NOTAMs and NOTMARs would also differ accordingly?

What program's orbit (and perhaps functionality) could Neitron be emulating?

I'd like to echo that question. Is anything known yet about Neitron's orbit or mission objectives? To the best of my knowledge, nothing has leaked out about the satellite's payload. There are some indications it has the same bus as the Kondor radar reconnaissance satellites (more on that later), but the payload may very well be something else than a radar.     

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Is this related? Probable launch on August 7? Or is this GEO-IK-2?

https://twitter.com/LaunchStuff/status/1158355021249073152

[zubenelgenubi]

I don't think this NOTMAR is a good match for the drop zone NOTAM closest to Plesetsk for the launch of the second GEO-IK-2 (see attachment; from this thread post).

Maybe?  But see my reply here.

Re: launch cadence.  The most recent launch from Plesetsk 43/4 was on July 30 UTC.  This is the sole Soyuz-2 pad available at Plesetsk.

Theoretically it is possible to recycle [the Soyuz-2] pad [43/4] in 10 days...

[B. Hendrickx]

The launch of Neitron is planned for late August according to what appears to be an insider quoted in the Russian launch thread on the NK forum. See a post by a certain Dmitriy Gunin here:

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/122633/#comments

He adds that the launch is "much anticipated by an inner circle of people".

[eeergo]

https://twitter.com/LaunchStuff/status/1173963914813616129

Probably launching in a few days?

[zubenelgenubi]

See up-thread for Soyuz Plesetsk LC 43/4 minimum launch cadence discussion.

Given that, one can deduce that the Neitron launch will be NET October 2019.

EDIT 9/26: Kosmos 2541 launched on September 26 UTC.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post re: availability of a second Soyuz-2 LC at Plesetsk:

I read that 43/3 is ready for use again.
Can anyone confirm this ?

It was forced to be ready.

Yes. Final adjustments during testing had to be made before the pad could be placed in active service.

[zubenelgenubi]

As of this posting, the next Soyuz family launch from Plesetsk will be the Soyuz-2-1v/Volga launch from Plesetsk 43/4 on November 25, of an unknown satellite or satellites.

After the 25th, there are only 5 more days in November.  I suspect that the next Plesetsk Soyuz launch will be no earlier than December.

(The next Glonass-M satellite will launch from Plesetsk 43/3 on December 10.  This will be the "return to launch" for 43/3.)

[zubenelgenubi]

Heads-up
Cross-posts; my bold:

Will there be any more orbital launches, other than 1 Proton and the last Rokot, before the New Year's and Russian Orthodox Christmas holidays?

Rogozin said 3 launches including launch from CSG obviously.

https://ria.ru/20191217/1562466837.html
Google translation

Russia plans to launch its first space launch in 2020 in January from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, a source in the rocket and space industry told RIA Novosti.

Possibly Neitron, which has been long overdue. The only official target date we've ever seen for this mission was in a February 2018 newsletter of NPO Lavochkin (which builds the Fregat upper stage for the mission). This said the launch was planned for the fourth quarter of 2018. This project, which was approved by the Ministry of Defense back in December 2011, has clearly suffered multiple delays.

[B. Hendrickx]

The Russian launch schedule on the NK forum identifies the payload for the late January launch from Plesetsk as Neitron. However,  I'm not sure if that is speculation or based on inside information.

[zubenelgenubi]

Thread update:
Launch did not occur in January 2020, nor for the rest of 2020.
Perhaps 2021?

[B. Hendrickx]

Thread update:
Launch did not occur in January 2020, nor for the rest of 2020.
Perhaps 2021?

Nothing new has surfaced on the status of Neitron since the update that I gave in the program thread last June:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45081.0

There were environmental impact assessment hearings at Plesetsk last spring for what was called "launches of product 14F01" in the 2020-2021 timeframe. Two satellite names have been associated with 14F01, namely Neitron and Tekhnolog. It is not entirely clear if these are two names for one and the same satellite or names for two different satellites, although the available evidence points to the latter. That would also explain the use of the plural ("launches").

All indications are that this is a one-off experimental mission (the exact purpose of which remains a mystery). That could be one of the reasons why it keeps getting bumped by launches of serially produced military satellites, which are considered to be of higher priority. However, technical issues undoubtedly also play a role in the delays. 

The last we heard about this mission was in May 2020, when documentation appeared on zakupki.gov.ru saying that a "mock-up" of the engine unit of 14F01 had to be discarded because it had become contaminated with rocket fuel at Plesetsk. This raises a couple of questions, such as why a mock-up would be used for fueling tests. Perhaps it was a veiled way of saying that there was an accident with the real engine unit of 14F01 and the mission has had to be canceled. Only time will tell.

[Vahe231991]

The NextSpaceFlight website states that the Neitron #1 is now scheduled for launch in September of this year.