POLL: Which Mission Will Launch First?

[JDTractorGuy]

With the recent announcement that SpaceX's first crew mission to the ISS has slipped to 2018, coupled with their recent failure, it is no longer evident who will be the first to send people back into space.  With that in mind, which one of these missions do you all think will fly first?  Opt. 1-4 are all set for 2018, and provided they don't slip it might be close.  Happy polling.

**SLS is up there just for argument's sake even though there is no crew**

[koshvv]

I think it will be Blue. They already have New Shepard ready, and short duration suborbital launch is much simpler than orbital trip to ISS.

P.S. We already have a similar poll http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39012.msg1472860

[jongoff]

I said New Shepard with crew, since SpaceX, Boeing, and SLS are all slipping to the right. Now, if Blue's in-flight abort test goes horribly wrong next month, I might have to change my tune, but assuming that works well (I given it a >80% chance of doing so), My guess is they'll be flying crew by early 2018 at the latest. Both SpaceX and Boeing are now iffy for flying crew in 2018 at all, and EM-1 is likely 2019. Not sure when SNC will fly, but they're just starting their CRS-2 contract, so my guess is it'll be a while yet.

~Jon